FROM MAPS TO MODELS
AUGMENTING THE NATION’S
GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Committee on Models of the World for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources/Mapping Science Committee
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
A Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency under Contract No. HM017713C0002. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-44991-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-44991-X
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/23650
Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Cover: (Upper) Past and projected Arctic sea ice decline, 1890–2090. Observed values (black line) are for 1953–2012. Projected values (colored lines, 2010–2090) represent different future policies for regulating CO2, from very high emissions (red line) to substantially declining emissions after 2020 (green line). SOURCE: Modified from Stroeve et al. (2012). (Lower) Arctic sea ice summertime minimum on September 10, 2016 (white) compared to 1981-2010 average minimum (gold line). SOURCE: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio/C. Starr.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation’s Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23650.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org.
Reports document the evidence-based consensus of an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and committee deliberations. Reports are peer reviewed and are approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
Proceedings chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other convening event. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and have not been endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit nationalacademies.org/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON MODELS OF THE WORLD FOR THE NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL-INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DAVID M. HIGDON, Chair, Virginia Tech, Arlington, Virginia
ROBERT L. AXTELL, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
VENKATRAMANI BALAJI, Princeton University/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, New Jersey
LAWRENCE E. BUJA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KATHERINE V. CALVIN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland
KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
REBECCA CASTAÑO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
RONALD R. COIFMAN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
OMAR GHATTAS, The University of Texas at Austin
JAMES A. HANSEN, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
ANNA M. MICHALAK, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California
SHASHI SHEKHAR, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF
ANNE M. LINN, Study Director, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
EDWARD J. DUNLEA, Senior Program Manager, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
GENE WHITNEY, Chair, Congressional Research Service (Retired), Washington, District of Columbia
R. LYNDON (LYN) ARSCOTT, International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (Retired), Danville, California
CHRISTOPHER (SCOTT) CAMERON, GeoLogical Consulting, LLC, Houston, Texas
CAROL P. HARDEN, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville
T. MARK HARRISON, University of California, Los Angeles
ANN S. MAEST, Buka Environmental, Boulder, Colorado
DAVID R. MAIDMENT, The University of Texas at Austin
M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis
HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
MARY M. POULTON, University of Arizona, Tucson
JAMES M. ROBERTSON, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison
SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director
ANNE M. LINN, Scholar
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
RAYMOND M. CHAPPETTA, Program Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
A.R. RAVISHANKARA, Chair, NAS, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
SHUYI S. CHEN, Vice Chair, University of Miami, Florida
LANCE F. BOSART, University at Albany, State University of New York
MARK A. CANE, NAS, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California
ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
MAURA HAGAN, Utah State University, Logan
TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts
EVERETTE JOSEPH, University at Albany, State University of New York
RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina
JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, Washington
JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson
ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn
S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF
AMANDA STAUDT, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Program Director
KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer
APRIL MELVIN, Associate Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant
BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
DONALD SAARI, Chair, University of California, Irvine
DOUGLAS N. ARNOLD, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
JOHN B. BELL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California
VICKI BIER, University of Wisconsin–Madison
JOHN R. BIRGE, University of Chicago, Illinois
RONALD R. COIFMAN NAS, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
CHRISTINE H. FOX, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland
MARK L. GREEN, University of California, Los Angeles
PATRICIA A. JACOBS, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
JOSEPH A. LANGSAM, University of Maryland, College Park
SIMON A. LEVIN, NAS, Princeton University, New Jersey
ANDREW W. LO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DAVID MAIER, Portland State University, Oregon
JUAN C. MEZA, University of California, Merced
FRED S. ROBERTS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick
GUILLERMO R. SAPIRO, Duke University, Durham
ELIZABETH A. THOMPSON, NAS, University of Washington, Seattle
KAREN WILCOX, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DAVID D. YAO, Columbia University, New York
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE STAFF
SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Director
NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Program Officer
MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Program Officer
RODNEY N. HOWARD, Administrative Assistant
BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate
Acknowledgments
The report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Erica Briscoe, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Smyrna
Paul K. Davis, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
Auroop R. Ganguly, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
Michael F. Goodchild, University of California, Santa Barbara
Alexander H. Levis, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
Richard M. Medina, University of Utah, Salt Lake City
Guillermo Sapiro, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
Cyrus Shahabi, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
Jery R. Stedinger, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by George M. Hornberger, Vanderbilt University, and Keith C. Clarke, University of California, Santa Barbara, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee would like to thank the following individuals who shared their expertise with the committee through presentations and discussions: Richard Berg, MITRE; Nadya Bliss, Arizona State University; Michael Chatman, Pacific Disaster Center; Edward Cope, NGA; Dolores Derrington, MITRE; Peter Douchette, Integrity Applications, Inc.; Kerri Dugan, NGA; David Gauthier, NGA; Matt Hancher, Google; Dirk Helbing, ETH Zurich;
Kevin Krystopolski, NGA; Eric Lance, Arizona State University; David Lawrence, NCAR; Michael Lenihan, NGA; Jon Miller, Arizona State University; Sherry Olsen, MITRE; Peter Overton, MITRE; H. Greg Smith, NGA; Monica Smith, NGA; Tim Stearns, Stanford University; and Dave White, Arizona State University.
Contents
Models for Understanding Real-World Systems
The Model-Based Investigation Process
Strengths and Limitations of Models
Example 4: Tensions in the Middle East
Example 5: Food and Water Scarcity
4 MODELS AND METHODS RELEVANT TO NGA
Coupled Physical–Social System Models
