VOLCANIC |
ERUPTIONS |
AND THEIR |
REPOSE, |
UNREST, |
|
PRECURSORS, |
|
AND |
TIMING |
Committee on Improving Understanding of Volcanic Eruptions
Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001
This activity is supported by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Day Fund, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NNX15AT28G, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. EAR-1547098, and the U.S. Geological Survey under Grant No. G15AC00348. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-45412-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-45412-3
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24650
Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2017 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Cover: A grand challenge in the report is to understand the full life cycle of volcanoes. The life cycle consists of the repose period; the unrest, which is only sometimes followed by eruption; the precursors (geophysical or geochemical changes), which are followed by eruption; and the eruption itself. A life cycle involves a set of events at various times, so it is important to quantify the timing of unrest, precursors, and the creation of magma bodies as well as the time scales for eruptive processes, including the initiation, duration, and ending of an eruption. Cover image: Augustine volcano, Alaska, on March 27, 2006. Courtesy of photographer Cyrus Read and the Alaska Volcano Observatory, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Cover designed by Francesca Moghari.
Chapter opening photos: (Chapter 1) Active Caliente Vent of Santiaguito, Guatemala, in 2007. Courtesy of Jeffrey Johnson, Boise State University. (Chapter 2) Lava lake spattering at the summit of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, in January 2017. Courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. (Chapter 3) Monitoring and news trucks at Mount St. Helens in 2004. Courtesy of Larry Mastin, USGS. (Chapter 4) Geothermal geysers, El Tatio, Chile. Courtesy of Michael Manga, University of California, Berkeley. (Chapter 5) Obsidian dome in Long Valley Caldera, California. Courtesy of Michael Manga, University of California, Berkeley. (Chapter 6) Lava stream from the lava tube at Kilauea into the ocean. Courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24650.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.
Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.
For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
MICHAEL MANGA, Chair, University of California, Berkeley
SIMON A. CARN, Michigan Technological University, Houghton
KATHARINE V. CASHMAN, NAS,1 University of Bristol, United Kingdom
AMANDA B. CLARKE, Arizona State University, Tempe
CHARLES B. CONNOR, University of South Florida, Tampa
KARI M. COOPER, University of California, Davis
TOBIAS FISCHER, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
BRUCE HOUGHTON, University of Hawaii at Manoa
JEFFREY B. JOHNSON, Boise State University, Idaho
TERRY A. PLANK, NAS, Columbia University, New York
DIANA C. ROMAN, Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC
PAUL SEGALL, NAS, Stanford University, California
Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics Liaison
STEPHEN McNUTT, University of South Florida, Tampa
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
ANNE M. LINN, Scholar
NICHOLAS ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Administrative Coordinator
___________________
1 National Academy of Sciences.
COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS
RICHARD M. ALLEN, Chair, University of California, Berkeley
THORSTEN W. BECKER, The University of Texas at Austin
CYNTHIA EBINGER, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana
STEVEN JACOBSEN, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
LISA G. LUDWIG, University of California, Irvine
STEPHEN McNUTT, University of South Florida, Tampa
MATTHEW PRITCHARD, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
MAYA TOLSTOY, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
JEROEN TROMP, Princeton University, New Jersey
WILLIAM WALTER, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
SHERILYN WILLIAMS-STROUD, Confractus, Inc., Pasadena, California
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Administrative Coordinator
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
GENE WHITNEY, Chair, Congressional Research Service (Retired), Washington, DC
R. LYNDON (LYN) ARSCOTT, International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (Retired), Danville, California
CHRISTOPHER (SCOTT) CAMERON, GeoLogical Consulting, LLC, Houston, Texas
RODNEY C. EWING, NAE,1 Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford University, California
CAROL P. HARDEN, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville
T. MARK HARRISON, University of California, Los Angeles
THORNE LAY, NAS,2 University of California, Santa Cruz
ANN S. MAEST, Buka Environmental, Boulder, Colorado
ZELMA MAINE-JACKSON, Washington State Department of Ecology, Nuclear Waste Program, Richland
MARTIN W. McCANN, Jack R. Benjamin and Associates and Stanford University, Menlo Park, California
JAMES M. ROBERTSON, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison
JAMES SLUTZ, National Petroleum Council, Washington, DC
SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Board Director
ANNE M. LINN, Scholar
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Administrative Coordinator
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
RAYMOND M. CHAPPETTA, Senior Program Assistant
___________________
1 National Academy of Engineering.
2 National Academy of Sciences.
This page intentionally left blank.
Acknowledgments
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Emily E. Brodsky, University of California, Santa Cruz
Donald J. DePaolo, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California
Josef D. Dufek, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
Marie Edmonds, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Guido Giordano, Roma Tre University, Italy
Warner Marzocchi, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
J.R. Anthony Pearson, Schlumberger Cambridge Research, United Kingdom
Matthew Pritchard, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
Stephen Self, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Alameda, California
S. Adam Soule, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
Robert Wright, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robin K. McGuire, Lettis Consultants International, Inc., and E. Bruce Watson, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
The committee would like to thank the following individuals who shared their expertise with the committee through presentations, videos, or discussions: Amy Chen, Sonia Esperança, Dennis Geist, Jake Lowenstern, Charles Mandeville, Seth Moran, Tina Neal, John Pallister, Benjamin Phillips, James Rustad, and Jennifer Wade. Particular thanks go to the partici-
pants in an international workshop (see Appendix B), who often came long distances and kept to a demanding schedule of presentations and working group discussions. The committee is grateful for their contributions to the workshop and for the many informal discussions. The committee thanks Stephen McNutt, who brought valuable insights from the Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics. Finally, the committee thanks Anne Linn and Nicholas Rogers for their guidance and patience throughout the study.
Contents
1.2 Volcanoes in the United States
1.3 The Structure of a Volcano
1.7 Modeling Volcanic Eruptions
2.1 How Are Magmas Stored and Transported in the Crust?
2.2 How Do Eruptions Begin, Evolve, and End?
2.3 What Happens When Volcanoes Erupt?
2.4 A Community Challenge: Modeling Volcanic Processes
3.3 Forecasting Eruption Hazards
4 HOW DO EARTH SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH ERUPTIONS?
4.1 How Do Landscapes, the Hydrosphere, and the Atmosphere Respond to Volcanic Eruptions?
4.2 How Do Volcanoes Respond to Tectonics and Changes in Climate?
5 STRENGTHENING VOLCANO SCIENCE
5.1 Enhancing Interdisciplinary Collaboration
5.2 Supporting Community Infrastructure
5.3 Preparing Future Volcano Scientists
5.5 Supporting Access to Data and Data Products
5.6 Maximizing the Value of Collaborations Between Observatory and Academic Volcano Scientists
5.7 Building an Effective Volcano Science Community
6 GRAND CHALLENGES IN VOLCANO SCIENCE