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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

AND THEIR

REPOSE,

UNREST,

PRECURSORS,

AND

TIMING

Committee on Improving Understanding of Volcanic Eruptions

Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Division on Earth and Life Studies

A Consensus Study Report of

images

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS500 Fifth Street, NWWashington, DC 20001

This activity is supported by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Day Fund, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NNX15AT28G, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. EAR-1547098, and the U.S. Geological Survey under Grant No. G15AC00348. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-45412-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-45412-3
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24650

Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2017 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Cover: A grand challenge in the report is to understand the full life cycle of volcanoes. The life cycle consists of the repose period; the unrest, which is only sometimes followed by eruption; the precursors (geophysical or geochemical changes), which are followed by eruption; and the eruption itself. A life cycle involves a set of events at various times, so it is important to quantify the timing of unrest, precursors, and the creation of magma bodies as well as the time scales for eruptive processes, including the initiation, duration, and ending of an eruption. Cover image: Augustine volcano, Alaska, on March 27, 2006. Courtesy of photographer Cyrus Read and the Alaska Volcano Observatory, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Cover designed by Francesca Moghari.

Chapter opening photos: (Chapter 1) Active Caliente Vent of Santiaguito, Guatemala, in 2007. Courtesy of Jeffrey Johnson, Boise State University. (Chapter 2) Lava lake spattering at the summit of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, in January 2017. Courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. (Chapter 3) Monitoring and news trucks at Mount St. Helens in 2004. Courtesy of Larry Mastin, USGS. (Chapter 4) Geothermal geysers, El Tatio, Chile. Courtesy of Michael Manga, University of California, Berkeley. (Chapter 5) Obsidian dome in Long Valley Caldera, California. Courtesy of Michael Manga, University of California, Berkeley. (Chapter 6) Lava stream from the lava tube at Kilauea into the ocean. Courtesy of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24650.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

images

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

images

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

COMMITTEE ON IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

MICHAEL MANGA, Chair, University of California, Berkeley

SIMON A. CARN, Michigan Technological University, Houghton

KATHARINE V. CASHMAN, NAS,1 University of Bristol, United Kingdom

AMANDA B. CLARKE, Arizona State University, Tempe

CHARLES B. CONNOR, University of South Florida, Tampa

KARI M. COOPER, University of California, Davis

TOBIAS FISCHER, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

BRUCE HOUGHTON, University of Hawaii at Manoa

JEFFREY B. JOHNSON, Boise State University, Idaho

TERRY A. PLANK, NAS, Columbia University, New York

DIANA C. ROMAN, Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC

PAUL SEGALL, NAS, Stanford University, California

Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics Liaison

STEPHEN McNUTT, University of South Florida, Tampa

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

ANNE M. LINN, Scholar

NICHOLAS ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Administrative Coordinator

___________________

1 National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS

RICHARD M. ALLEN, Chair, University of California, Berkeley

THORSTEN W. BECKER, The University of Texas at Austin

CYNTHIA EBINGER, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana

STEVEN JACOBSEN, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois

LISA G. LUDWIG, University of California, Irvine

STEPHEN McNUTT, University of South Florida, Tampa

MATTHEW PRITCHARD, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

MAYA TOLSTOY, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

JEROEN TROMP, Princeton University, New Jersey

WILLIAM WALTER, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

SHERILYN WILLIAMS-STROUD, Confractus, Inc., Pasadena, California

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer

COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Administrative Coordinator

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES

GENE WHITNEY, Chair, Congressional Research Service (Retired), Washington, DC

R. LYNDON (LYN) ARSCOTT, International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (Retired), Danville, California

CHRISTOPHER (SCOTT) CAMERON, GeoLogical Consulting, LLC, Houston, Texas

RODNEY C. EWING, NAE,1 Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford University, California

CAROL P. HARDEN, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

T. MARK HARRISON, University of California, Los Angeles

THORNE LAY, NAS,2 University of California, Santa Cruz

ANN S. MAEST, Buka Environmental, Boulder, Colorado

ZELMA MAINE-JACKSON, Washington State Department of Ecology, Nuclear Waste Program, Richland

MARTIN W. McCANN, Jack R. Benjamin and Associates and Stanford University, Menlo Park, California

JAMES M. ROBERTSON, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison

JAMES SLUTZ, National Petroleum Council, Washington, DC

SHAOWEN WANG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Board Director

ANNE M. LINN, Scholar

DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer

SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Administrative Coordinator

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

RAYMOND M. CHAPPETTA, Senior Program Assistant

___________________

1 National Academy of Engineering.

2 National Academy of Sciences.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

Acknowledgments

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Emily E. Brodsky, University of California, Santa Cruz

Donald J. DePaolo, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California

Josef D. Dufek, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

Marie Edmonds, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

Guido Giordano, Roma Tre University, Italy

Warner Marzocchi, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy

J.R. Anthony Pearson, Schlumberger Cambridge Research, United Kingdom

Matthew Pritchard, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

Stephen Self, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Alameda, California

S. Adam Soule, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts

Robert Wright, University of Hawaii at Manoa

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robin K. McGuire, Lettis Consultants International, Inc., and E. Bruce Watson, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

The committee would like to thank the following individuals who shared their expertise with the committee through presentations, videos, or discussions: Amy Chen, Sonia Esperança, Dennis Geist, Jake Lowenstern, Charles Mandeville, Seth Moran, Tina Neal, John Pallister, Benjamin Phillips, James Rustad, and Jennifer Wade. Particular thanks go to the partici-

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
×

pants in an international workshop (see Appendix B), who often came long distances and kept to a demanding schedule of presentations and working group discussions. The committee is grateful for their contributions to the workshop and for the many informal discussions. The committee thanks Stephen McNutt, who brought valuable insights from the Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics. Finally, the committee thanks Anne Linn and Nicholas Rogers for their guidance and patience throughout the study.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24650.
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Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptions—where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences.

Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

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