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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

VALUING CLIMATE DAMAGES

Updating Estimation of the
Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide

Committee on Assessing Approaches to
Updating the Social Cost of Carbon

Board on Environmental Change and Society

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Report of

images

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Washington, DC
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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This activity was supported by Contract/Grant No. DE-PI0000010, task DE-DT0009404 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-45420-9
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-45420-4
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24651.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING APPROACHES TO UPDATING THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON

MAUREEN L. CROPPER (Cochair), Department of Economics, University of Maryland

RICHARD G. NEWELL (Cochair), Resources for the Future, Washington, DC

MYLES R. ALLEN, Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography, and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford, United Kingdom

MAXIMILIAN AUFFHAMMER, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley

CHRIS E. FOREST, Departments of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science & Geosciences, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University

INEZ Y. FUNG, Department of Earth & Planetary Science and Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley

JAMES K. HAMMITT, Department of Health Policy and Management, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University

HENRY D. JACOBY, Sloan School of Management (emeritus), Massachusetts Institute of Technology

ROBERT E. KOPP, Rutgers Energy Institute and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University

WILLIAM PIZER, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, North Carolina

STEVEN K. ROSE, Energy and Environmental Analysis Research Group, Electric Power Research Institute, Washington, DC

RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, Sloan School of Management (emeritus), Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN P. WEYANT, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

JENNIFER HEIMBERG, Study Director

CASEY J. WICHMAN, Technical Consultant, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC

MARY GHITELMAN, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY 2016-2017

RICHARD H. MOSS (Chair), Senior Research Scientist, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland

JOSEPH ARVAI, Max McGraw Professor of Sustainable Enterprise, School of Natural Resources and Environment, Ross School of Business, University of Michigan

ANTHONY J. BEBBINGTON, Higgins Professor of Environment and Society and Graduate School of Geography, Clark University

WILLIAM U. CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland

F. STUART CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska–Fairbanks

RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University

HALLIE C. EAKIN, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University

RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC

JONATHAN OVERPECK, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona

STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota

J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University

MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Technology Partnerships, Honeywell, Inc. (retired)

ROBYN S. WILSON, School of Environment and Natural Resources, Ohio State University

MARY ELLEN O’CONNELL, Interim Board Director (to November 2016)

TOBY WARDEN, Interim Board Director (since November 2016)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

Acknowledgments

A number of individuals and organizations contributed to the successful completion of this report. We wish to thank the Interagency Working Group for the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases for initiating this study and for the study’s sponsor, the U.S. Department of Energy, for supporting our work.

Casey Wichman, Resources for the Future, was the study’s technical consultant. We wish to thank Casey for the many contributions he made to both Phase 1 and this final report and throughout the course of the study. Casey’s expertise and attention to detail improved the quality of both reports.

Over the course of the study, committee members benefited from discussion and presentations by the many individuals who participated in the committee’s information-gathering meetings. Appendix B provides a full listing.

Several individuals contributed to the report through commissioned research. We wish to thank Delavane Diaz, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Frances Moore, Department of Environmental Science and Policy at University of California, Davis, for performing a literature review of climate impacts and damages that was important for Chapter 5. We also wish to thank Bentley Coffey, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, for conducting forecasting studies on long-term growth rates that are described in Appendix D and contributed to Chapter 3. We would also like to thank and recognize Scott Doney, Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, for his review of the analysis and calculations used in Chapter 4 and Appendix F.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

Thanks are also due to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine project staff and staff of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE). Jennifer (Jenny) Heimberg directed the study and played a key role in project management, report drafting, and the review process. Mary Ghitelman managed the study’s logistical and administrative needs, making sure meetings ran efficiently and smoothly. Kirsten Sampson-Snyder guided the report through the National Academies review process, and Eugenia Grohman provided editorial direction. Toby Warden, interim director of the Board on Environmental Change and Society (after November 2016), assisted with the report release, and Jenell Walsh-Thomas, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Fellow, stepped in to support final report production activities. Finally, Mary Ellen O’Connell, executive director of DBASSE and interim director of the Board on Environmental Change and Society (through November 2016), helped us from the study’s initiation to its completion; we are thankful for her guidance throughout.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Hadi Dowlatabadi, Institute for Resources Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia; James (Jae) Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Karen Fisher-Vanden, Environmental and Resource Economics, The Pennsylvania State University; Michael Greenstone, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago and Department of Economics, University of Chicago; Anthony C. Janetos, The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University; Peter B. Kelemen, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Bryan K. Mignone, Corporate Strategic Research, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company; Richard H. Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland; Elisabeth Moyer, Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago; Richard L. Revesz, New York University School of Law; David A. Weisbach, Law School and Computation Institute, University of Chicago, and Argonne National Laboratories; Jonathan B. Wiener, Law, Environmental Policy, and Public Policy Law School, Nicholas School of the Environment, and Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University;

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

and Gary W. Yohe, Economics and Environmental Studies, Wesleyan University.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake, Energy Laboratory emerita, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Charles F. Manski, Department of Economics, Northwestern University, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Finally, the dedication, collegiality, and hard work of the committee are especially appreciated. We recognize that the committee members have demanding positions outside of this study. We thank them for their time and commitment to this report.

Maureen L. Cropper, Cochair
Richard G. Newell, Cochair

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

Acronyms

AMOC

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

AR5

IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report

CDF

cumulative distribution function

CGE

computable general equilibrium

CH4

methane

CMIP

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

CMIP5

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5

CO2

carbon dioxide

CO2SYS.m

carbon systems calculation code

DIC

dissolved inorganic carbon

DICE

Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (model)

ECP

extended concentration pathway

ECS

equilibrium climate sensitivity

EMF-22

Energy Modeling Forum’s 22nd study

EPPA

emissions prediction and policy analysis

ESMs

Earth system models

FAIR

finite amplitude impulse response

FUND

Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (model)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
×

GCAM

Global Change Assessment Model

GDP

gross domestic product

GHGs

greenhouse gas

GLODAP2

Global Data Analysis Project, 2

GMSL

global mean sea level

GNI

gross national income

Gt C

gigaton, or 1 billion tons, of carbon

Gt CO2

gigaton of carbon dioxide

GWP

gross world product

IAMs

integrated assessment models

IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPT

initial pulse adjustment timescale

IWG

Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (through July 2016); Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost Greenhouse Gases (beginning August 2016)

kg/m3

kilogram per cubic meter

MERGE

model for estimating the regional and global effects of greenhouse gas reductions

microeq/kg

microequivalents per kilogram

micromol/kg

micromoles per kilogram

micromol/PgCO2

micromole per petagram of carbon dioxide

MW

Mueller-Watson

N2O

nitrous oxide

NPV

net present value

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OMB

U.S. Office of Management and Budget

PAGE

Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect (model)

PAGE09

2009 version of PAGE

pCO2

atmospheric carbon dioxide

POLES

Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

Page xvii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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ppm

parts per million

PSU

practical salinity unit

RCPs

representative concentration pathways

RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5, 6.0

versions of representative concentration pathways

RIAs

federal regulatory impact analyses

RICE

Regional Integrated Climate-Economy (model)

RWF

realized warming fraction (acronym used prior to 2016)

SCC

social cost of carbon (acronym used prior to 2016)

SC-CO2

social cost of carbon dioxide

SC-IAM

social cost of carbon IAMs

SCMs

simple climate models

SESMs

simple Earth system models

SIR

static impulse response

SLR

sea level rise

TCR

transient climate response

TCRE

transient climate response to emissions

W/m2

watts per square meter

WITCH

World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model

Page xviii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24651.
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The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems.

Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.

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