POWERING
SCIENCE
NASA’S LARGE STRATEGIC SCIENCE MISSIONS
Committee on Large Strategic NASA Science Missions:
Science Value and Role in a Balanced Portfolio
Space Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
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This activity was supported by Contract NNH11CD57B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-46383-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-46383-1
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24857
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Powering Science—NASA’s Large Strategic Science Missions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24857.
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COMMITTEE ON LARGE STRATEGIC NASA SCIENCE MISSIONS: SCIENCE VALUE AND ROLE IN A BALANCED PORTFOLIO
RALPH L. McNUTT, JR., Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Co-Chair
KATHRYN C. THORNTON, University of Virginia, Co-Chair
DAVID A. BEARDEN, The Aerospace Corporation
JOEL N. BREGMAN, University of Michigan
ANNY CAZENAVE, NAS,1 International Space Sciences Institute and Centre National d’Études Spatiales
ANNE R. DOUGLASS, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
VICTORIA E. HAMILTON, Southwest Research Institute
MARC L. IMHOFF, University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
CHARLES D. NORTON, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
CAROL S. PATY, Georgia Institute of Technology
MARC D. RAYMAN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
WILLIAM S. SMITH, ScienceWorks International
EDWARD L. WRIGHT, NAS, University of California, Los Angeles
GARY P. ZANK, University of Alabama in Huntsville
Staff
DWAYNE A. DAY, Senior Program Officer, Study Director
MIA BROWN, Research Associate
ANESIA WILKS, Senior Program Assistant
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board and Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
FIONA HARRISON, NAS,1 California Institute of Technology, Chair
ROBERT D. BRAUN, NAE,2 University of Colorado, Boulder, Vice Chair
DAVID N. SPERGEL, NAS, Princeton University and Center for Computational Astrophysics at the Simons Foundation, Vice Chair
JAMES G. ANDERSON, NAS, Harvard University
JEFF M. BINGHAM, Consultant
JAY C. BUCKEY, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College
MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates
JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation
THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology
SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research
WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington
ANTHONY C. JANETOS, Boston University
CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, George Washington University
DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles
ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
DAVID J. McCOMAS, Princeton University
LARRY PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory
SAUL PERLMUTTER, NAS, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley
BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, University of Toronto
HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire
MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego
MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University
Staff
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director
CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator
TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations
CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate
MARGARET KNEMEYER, Financial Officer
SU LIU, Financial Assistant
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___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
Dedicated to Neil Gehrels
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Preface
In November 2014 the NASA Associate Administrator for the Science Missions Directorate expressed interest in having the National Academies conduct a study of the value of large strategic science missions. In spring 2016 the Space Studies Board was given approval to begin such a study. The Committee on Large Strategic NASA Science Missions: Science Value and Role in a Balanced Portfolio was established in summer 2016 and held its first meeting in October 2016, its second meeting in December 2016, and its third meeting in February 2017. During these meetings the committee heard from various NASA space science officials as well as persons involved in various large, medium, and small space science missions over the past two decades, many of whom made slide presentations that are available on the committee’s website. The committee began drafting its report in January 2017 and submitted it for review in May.
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Stuart D. Bale, University of California, Berkeley,
Robert Bitten, The Aerospace Corporation,
Jonathan B. Blake, The Aerospace Corporation,
Alan Dressler, NAS,1 Observatories of the Carnegie Institution,
Larry W. Esposito, University of Colorado, Boulder,
Abigail Fraeman, Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
Alexander G. Hayes, Cornell University,
Franklin D. Martin, Aerospace Consultant,
Christopher S. Ruf, University of Michigan,
Harvey D. Tananbaum, NAS, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, and
Warren M. Washington, NAE,2 National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Edward F. Crawley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Martha P. Haynes, Cornell University. Crawley was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
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Contents
The Decadal Surveys and Large Strategic Missions
International Cooperation and Large Strategic Missions
The Value of Large Strategic Science Missions
2 BALANCING STRATEGIC MISSIONS
The Importance of Balancing Large, Medium-Size, and Smaller Missions Within the Divisions
Assessing Balance for NASA’s Four Divisions and the Role of the Decadal Surveys
3 RISKS AND REALITIES OF COST OVERRUNS FOR LARGE STRATEGIC MISSIONS
Reforms in How NASA Estimates Costs
