CHANGING
SOCIOCULTURAL DYNAMICS
AND IMPLICATIONS
FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP
Holly G. Rhodes, Rapporteur
Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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This activity was supported by Contract No. 2014-14041100003-009 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-47377-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-47377-2
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25056
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2018). Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25056.
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STEERING COMMITTEE ON CHANGING SOCIOCULTURAL DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY: A WORKSHOP
JEFFREY JOHNSON (Chair), Department of Anthropology, University of Florida
KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, School of Computer Science, Institute for Software Research International, Carnegie Mellon University
MARK LIBERMAN, Department of Linguistics, University of Pennsylvania
DAVID MATSUMOTO, Department of Psychology, College of Science and Engineering, San Francisco State University
JOY ROHDE, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan
SUSAN WELLER, Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health, The University of Texas Medical Branch
SUJEETA BHATT, Study Director
RENÉE WILSON GAINES, Senior Program Assistant
COMMITTEE ON A DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES FOR APPLICATIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY
PAUL R. SACKETT (Chair), Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota
GARY G. BERNTSON, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University
KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, School of Computer Science, Institute for Software Research International, Carnegie Mellon University
NOSHIR S. CONTRACTOR, McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, School of Communications, and the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
NANCY J. COOKE, The Polytechnic School, Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University
BARBARA ANNE DOSHER, Department of Cognitive Science, University of California, Irvine
JEFFREY C. JOHNSON, Department of Anthropology, University of Florida
SALLIE KELLER, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, National Capital Region
DAVID MATSUMOTO, Department of Psychology, College of Science and Engineering, San Francisco State University
CARMEN MEDINA, MedinAnalytics, LLC
FRAN P. MOORE, CENTRA Technology, Inc.
JONATHAN D. MORENO, Perelman School of Medicine, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania
JOY ROHDE, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan
JEFFREY W. TALIAFERRO, Department of Political Science, Tufts University
GREGORY F. TREVERTON, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, School of International Relations, University of Southern California
JEREMY M. WOLFE, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Departments of Ophthalmology and Radiology, Harvard Medical School
SUJEETA BHATT, Study Director
ALEXANDRA BEATTY, Senior Program Officer
JULIE ANNE SCHUCK, Program Officer
ELIZABETH TOWNSEND, Research Associate
RENÉE L. WILSON GAINES, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES
SUSAN T. FISKE (Chair), Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
JOHN BAUGH, Department of Arts & Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis
LAURA L. CARSTENSEN, Department of Psychology, Stanford University
JUDY DUBNO, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of South Carolina
JENNIFER EBERHARDT, Department of Psychology, Stanford University
ROBERT L. GOLDSTONE, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University
DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology, Michigan State University
JAMES S. JACKSON, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
NANCY G. KANWISHER, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JANICE KIECOLT-GLASER, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University College of Medicine
BILL C. MAURER, School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine
JOHN MONAHAN, School of Law, University of Virginia
STEVEN E. PETERSEN, Department of Neurology and Neurological Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine
DANA M. SMALL, Department of Psychiatry, Yale Medical School
TIMOTHY J. STRAUMAN, Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University
JEREMY M. WOLFE, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Departments of Ophthalmology and Radiology, Harvard Medical School
BARBARA A. WANCHISEN, Director
THELMA COX, Program Coordinator
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Acknowledgments
This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: Susan Brandon, Defense Intelligence Agency, and Susan C. Weller, Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health and Department of Family Medicine, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by John Monahan, School of Law, University of Virginia. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.
Jeffrey Johnson, Chair
Steering Committee on Changing Sociocultural
Dynamics and Implications for National Security
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Contents
The Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security
Objectives for the Six Workshops
2 LINKING CULTURE, LANGUAGE, BEHAVIOR, AND DATA
Measuring Individuals: How Cultural Values Shape Public Perceptions of Risk
Examining Shared Beliefs and Behaviors: Living up to Cultural Ideals
Identifying Patterns: Understanding Culture through Social Media
3 TRIANGULATION OF DATA SOURCES AND RESEARCH METHODS
Using Multiple Sources of Data to Understand Conflict in Organizations
Using Data from Surveys, Laboratory Experiments, and Social Media to Understand Misinformation