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Suggested Citation:"Communicating Under Uncertainty." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25319.
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Page 17

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

17 Communicating Under Uncertainty As the transportation planning industry strives to find ways to anticipate impacts under highly unstable conditions, planners and modelers are also challenged to communicate this uncertainty to senior decision makers and elected officials. How does a responsible planning or modeling professional present forecasts that are steeped in uncertainty without leaving decision makers in high-risk situations and leaving stakeholders suspicious? Research in the field of neuroscience holds tips that provide a framework for communicating during deep uncertainty. Sim- ply put, the brain can be understood as having two electrical circuits: reward and threat. The intent is to present information to leaders in such a way that the reward circuitry is maximized and the threat circuitry is minimized. The goal is to intention- ally communicate what is certain while being clear about uncer- tainty and to emphasize where there is control while being honest about where there is no control. MatejKastelic/Shutterstock.com

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Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary Get This Book
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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Research Report 896: Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary summarizes guidelines to help agencies update their modeling and forecasting tools to address expected impacts of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on transportation supply, road capacity, and travel demand components.

Under requirements for long-range transportation planning, state departments of transportation and regional metropolitan planning organizations are required to have a multimodal transportation plan with a minimum time horizon of 20 years.

Because manufacturers and shared fleet operators suggest that CAVs will be present on the highway system in significant numbers well before 2038, the planning community will require procedures and methods to address the potential positive and negative direct and indirect outcomes from their deployment.

Volume 1 conveys the key findings of NCHRP Research Report 896: Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance. Volume 2 explores ways to develop new planning and modeling processes that include CAVs in the transportation environment.

The research report is accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation that can be adapted for presentations to agency decision makers.

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