Appendix A
Agenda and List of Participants
AGENDA: USING MODELS TO ESTIMATE HOG PRODUCTION: A CNSTAT WORKSHOP WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2019
National Academy of Sciences Building, Members’ Room
2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has developed hog models that combine information from surveys, administrative data, and expert opinion to produce the requisite estimates with the goal of replacing current methods that lack transparency and measures of uncertainty. The purpose of the workshop is to discuss the appropriateness of these models and possible improvements or alternative approaches. Issues for discussion at the workshop include the appropriateness of the modeling techniques developed by NASS, the extent to which the model’s assumptions can be validated, the robustness of the estimates to a failure of one or more assumptions, and other technical issues of model specification. In addition, the workshop will consider the suitability of the data that feed into the model and the properties of desirable estimates of uncertainty.
| 8:30 - 9:00 | WELCOME AND INTRODUCTIONS |
| 8:30 | Eric Slud, planning committee chair and workshop moderator |
| 8:40 | Brian Harris-Kojetin, director of CNSTAT |
| 8:50 | Linda Young, chief mathematical statistician and director of research and development, NASS |
| 9:00 - 9:40 | SESSION 1 Motivation and Overview Moderator Kathy Ensor |
| 9:00 | Nell Sedransk, NISS, Overview and Introduction to Hog Inventory Models |
| 9:30 | Discussion |
| 9:40 - 10:05 | SESSION 2 Survey Processes, Data Sources Moderator Ron Plain |
| 9:40 | Emilola Abayomi, NASS, The Hog Inventory Survey |
| 9:55 | Discussion |
| 10:05 - 10:30 | SESSION 3 Setting Official Estimates: The Hog Board Moderator Chris Wikle |
| 10:05 | Seth Riggins, NASS, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report (via webcast) |
| 10:20 | Discussion |
| 10:30 - 10:40 | BREAK |
| 10:40 - 11:20 | SESSION 4 Modeling Efforts Moderator Lee Schulz |
| 10:40 | Gavin Corral NASS Statistical Modeling Efforts |
| 11:10 | Discussion |
| 11:20 - 11:45 | SESSION 5 Web-Scraping Efforts Moderator Kathy Ensor |
| 11:20 | Yijun Wei, NASS, Web-Scraping Efforts to Identify Disease |
| 11:35 | Discussion |
| 11:45 - 12:45 | LUNCH |
| 12:45 - 1:45 | SESSION 6 Model Innovations Moderator Ron Plain |
| 12:45 | Luca Sartore, NASS, Modeling Swine Population Dynamics |
| 1:15 | Discussion |
| 2:00 - 2:45 | SESSION 7 Discussion: Detection and Monitoring of Outbreaks Moderator Eric Slud |
| 2:00 | Matthew Branan and Kamina Johnson, APHIS Monitoring, Surveillance, and Modeling for Swine Diseases. |
| 2:20 | Panel Discussion (Lee Schulz, Andrew Lawson, Michael Schweinberger) |
| 2:35 | Discussion |
| 2:45 - 3:00 | BREAK |
| 3:00 - 3:45 | SESSION 8 Discussion: Current Modeling Efforts: State-Space Models, Models of Biological Processes Moderator Eric Slud |
| 3:00 | Panel Discussion (Kathy Ensor, Chris Wikle) |
| 3:20 | Discussion |
| 3:45 - 4:30 | SESSION 9 Discussion: State-level Models and Data Sources Moderator Chris Wikle |
| 3:45 | Panel Discussion (Eric Slud, Gauri Datta, Ron Plain) |
| 4:05 | Discussion |
| 4:30 - 5:00 | SESSION 10 Discussion: Visions for the Future Moderator Eric Slud |
| 4:30 | Open Discussion |
| 5:00 | Adjournment |
PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON USING MODELS TO ESTIMATE HOG PRODUCTION
Eric V. Slud (Chair), U.S. Census Bureau and University of Maryland, College Park
Katherine Bennett Ensor, Rice University
Ronald L. Plain, University of Missouri–Columbia (emeritus)
Lee L. Schulz, Iowa State University
Christopher K. Wikle, University of Missouri
STAFF
Nancy J. Kirkendall, Study Director
Anthony Mann, Program Associate
Brian Harris-Kojetin, Director, Committee on National Statistics
INVITED DISCUSSANTS
Matthew Branan, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA
Gauri Datta, U.S. Census Bureau
Kamina Johnson, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA
Andrew Lawson, Medical University of South Carolina
Michael Schweinberger, Rice University
NASS PRESENTERS
Emilola Abayomi, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA
Gavin Corral, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA
Seth Riggins, Statistics Division, NASS, USDA
Luca Sartore, National Institute of Statistical Science and Research and
Development Division, NASS, USDA
Nell Sedransk, National Institute of Statistical Science and Research and
Development Division, NASS, USDA
Yijun (Frank) Wei, National Institute of Statistical Science and Research
and Development Division, NASS, USDA
Linda Young, Director of Research, NASS, USDA
ATTENDEES
Travis Averill, Livestock Branch, NASS, USDA
Jeff Bailey, Branch Chief, Methodology Division, NASS, USDA
Valbona Bejleri, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA
Lu Chen, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA
Cynthia Clark, COPAFS; former Administrator of NASS, USDA
Nathan Cruze, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA
Lindsay Drunasky, Methodology Division, NASS, USDA
Lori Harper, Methodology Division, NASS, USDA
Dan Kerestes, Director of Statistics Division, NASS, USDA
Kay Turner, Research and Development Division, NASS, USDA
This page intentionally left blank.
