Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 7: Preservation, Maintenance, and Renewal of Highway Infrastructure (2020)

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12 Literature Review The literature review focused on critically reviewing the documented work of direct relevance to the project (i.e., work dealing with long­range transportation futures); the findings are dis­ cussed in this chapter. The literature review also identified emerging and innovative practices relevant to PMR; these are discussed later in Chapter 3. This literature review began with the work reported in the NCHRP Project 20­83(03) reports (TTI, 2012 and TTI, 2014). In addition, several forward­looking publications were reviewed to identify additional perspectives about key drivers and related implications that might relate to potential PMR emerging and innovative technologies, including the following: • NCHRP Report 750, Volumes 1 through 6 (Caplice and Phadnis, 2013; Meyer et al., 2014; Popper et al., 2013; Booz Allen Hamilton, 2014; Sorenson et al., 2014; and Zmud et al., 2014, respectively). • The Transportation Research Board’s (TRB’s) “Critical Issues in Transportation” report (TRB, 2013). • The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission’s (NSTPRC’s) Final Report—Commission Briefing Paper 4I­03 “Implications of Aging Infrastructure on Long­Term Preservation and Reconstruction Needs” (NSTPRC, 2007). • The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Strategic Plan (FHWA, 2015). • “NR2C: New Road Construction Concepts—Towards Reliable, Green, Safe & Smart and Human Infrastructure in Europe” [Forum of European National Highway Research Labora­ tories (FEHRL), 2008]. • Select recent literature related to automated and connected vehicles (Wright et al., 2014; Zografos, 2013; Bierstedt et al., 2014; Lockwood, 2015; Wagner et al., 2014). NCHRP Project 20-83(03) Reports NCHRP Project 20­83(03) (TTI, 2012; TTI, 2014) sought to identify “likely changes in the world that would affect future transportation needs,” “the probability that the change … would actually happen,” and “the rate at which the likely change would occur as it pertained to … tech­ nical areas.” The project identified 18 drivers and then seven distinct scenarios that represent the future environments in which TOs will likely operate, based on various combinations of these drivers. The identified drivers are the following: C H A P T E R 2 Drivers and Scenarios

Drivers and Scenarios 13 • Climate change. • Economic growth. • Priority on environmental quality/public commitment to sustainability. • Funding—amount. • Funding—proportion private. • Government role. • Mobility—demand. • Mobility—capacity and access. • Population density. • Resources/energy—supply. • Resources/energy—demand. • Resources/energy—gas or carbon tax. • Resources/energy—price. • Road freight. • Security. • Technology—physical and fixed. • Technology—information technology. • Transportation choices/complexity. The identified scenarios are the following: • Baseline Scenario—Managed Decline: Continuation of current trends results in a measurably degraded highway system, but agencies and users adapt. Significant increases in fuel prices and reduction in serviceable highway capacity are major themes of the baseline scenario. • Back to the Future: The economy returns to health, and transportation has the technology and resources to grow again. • Government Redux: The government reasserts itself as the primary driver of transportation in the United States and develops the funding resources to do so. • Bits over Buses: A higher than expected increase in crude oil reduces the ability of ordinary people to travel as much as they used to. They turn instead to an expanded Internet, not only for communication but for most work and leisure activities that used to require physical movement. • Many Ways to Go: The government seeks new revenue in gas and carbon taxes, but rather than investing in the existing transportation system, it puts its money into new transport and information technology. This leads to a complex but efficient transportation system that includes significant shares of many different modes. • Escape to the Centers: The lack of mobility and increased threats to their well­being drive people out of the suburbs and into the city, reducing the demand for transportation—this is the vision of the advocates of smart growth. • Meltdown: The pessimistic scenarios for climate change end up being more accurate than the optimistic ones. As a result, the most important priority for the next few decades is struggling with nature rather than growing the economy. NCHRP 750 Foresight Report Series Drivers—A Broad Snapshot Most of the NCHRP 750 Foresight Series reports compiled and considered a host of demographic factors as drivers of future transportation trends and scenarios. Considerable over­

14 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation lap and confirmation of drivers among the reports were noted, and similar driver categories were found in other publications. A broad array of drivers is identified in NCHRP Report 750, Volume 4 (Booz Allen Hamilton, 2014). In this report, sustainability was used as an applied principle to characterize future sce­ narios and examine societal services like transportation. These drivers are: • Demographic factors: population size, distribution (e.g., growth in megaregions), and charac­ teristics (e.g., age), which influence resources available to transportation agencies and trans­ portation demand. • Economic growth and public­sector spending on transportation: growth in GDP, inflation, investment, employment, income; public­sector spending on transportation at the federal, state, and local levels—all impacting levels of resources available to address future challenges and opportunities. • Land use: zoning and urban planning trends and policies. • Energy: patterns of energy use and fuel prices. • Environment: climate change, impacts of commerce and industry, resource availability, and resource use (e.g., water, oil, rare metals, soil depletion). • Transportation technology: vehicle­based communications, vehicle materials, power systems, infrastructure affecting mobility options and required fuels. • Transportation system funding, operation, and control: organization of future transportation systems and the role of different players in the process (e.g., funding sources, public­sector vs. private­sector roles, role of the federal government)—affecting mobility, safety, and sustain­ ability. Several of the drivers noted in this report were examined in greater depth in other Foresight Series volumes as well as overarching demographic, economic, and land use factors that directly impact future supply and demand for transportation. Individual reports address energy (and its implications on vehicle technology), climate change, and transportation technology. These are summarized below. Travel Demand—Demographic, Economic and Land Use Drivers Demographic influences are the focus of NCHRP Report 750, Volume 6 (Zmud et al., 2014). The research examined projected socio­demographic changes in the United States and the ex­ tent of their uncertainty and their impact on travel behavior. The research identified eight key socio­demographic trends likely to contribute to the demand for travel and travel behavior [e.g., vehicle miles traveled (VMT), car ownership, mode choice, and trip rates]. Table 1 lists the iden­ tified drivers and their impacts on travel demand. Some drivers affect multiple trends; their impacts on travel demand may differ by trend.

Drivers and Scenarios 15 Table 1. Socio-demographic trends, drivers, and impacts on travel demand (Zmud et al., 2014). Trend Drivers Impact on Travel Demand Population growth slows Population growing but aging, declining fertility rates among white women, extended life span, less immigration Overall increase in total VMT due to population growth; VMT per capita appears to be declining Average age increases Population aging, extended lifespans, “boom-and-bust” birth rate patterns Decreased per capita VMT, decreased work trips, increased vehicle age, decreased auto ownership, increased carpooling, decreased transit use Diversity increases Structural changes in population distribution by race/ethnicity, relatively high fertility rates among Hispanic women, continuing immigration in younger age groups Increase in VMT per capita, increase in auto age, greater public transit use Changes to workforce makeup Boom-and-bust birth rate patterns, population aging, female work participation patterns, female longevity, structural changes in racial/ ethnic distribution of labor force, immigration Decreased VMT per capita, increased work-related VMT, lower growth in work-related VMT, increased carpooling Less differentiation between cities and suburbs Population growth, housing starts, population aging, age structure, household structure Decreased VMT per capita, increased non-motorized trips, increased transit trips Slow growth in new households Poor labor market, aging population, lifestyle choices of Millennials Decreased per capita VMT, decreased auto ownership among young people, increased carpooling, increased public transit use Importance and ubiquity of mobile broadband Technology evolution, lifestyle choices, age structure Reduced VMT per capita for some trip purposes, decreased car ownership Decreasing generational divide over energy and environmental priorities Age structure, population aging Lower car ownership, more transit and nonvehicle travel by younger generations due to elderly population shrinking Energy Drivers Changes in transportation fuels and vehicle technologies and how they might affect state DOTs in the future are examined in NCHRP Report 750, Volume 5 (Sorenson et al., 2014). The report looks at fuel type, distribution, and refueling as well as corresponding vehicle technologies associated with fuel, costs, performance, and future market prospects. The report also considered future drivers related to population, economy, land use, and policy factors: • Growth in population (varying by region), average age, and diversity along with uncertain immigration rates. • Uncertain magnitudes of economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)], potential exac­ erbation of income inequality.

16 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation • Land use trends and policies (suburbanization versus smart growth). • Energy policies (supply­side and demand­side) and climate policies trading off between energy cost and climate mitigation. • Transportation funding sources and roles of government and the private sector, including revenue versus VMT, potential devolution of highway funding responsibility, reduced reliance on user fees, and funding levels and priorities (e.g., roads versus transit). Climate Drivers NCHRP Report 750, Volume 2 (Meyer et al., 2014) focuses on drivers that impact climate and the expected changes in climate. It also identifies a set of potential demographic, land use, and transportation system and technology changes. Population growth rates and patterns (includ­ ing immigration), spatial trends such as the formation of megaregions (large interconnected networks of often multistate, metropolitan centers linked by transportation infrastructure), and an increase in average age and percentage of the population over sixty­five (65) are important demographic factors. These demographic trends, in turn, influence land use, including types (density) and location of housing development. The identified transportation technology trends mirror those noted in other research publications and include “smart” sensors, more durable materials, and low­weight, high­strength composites. Expected changes to climate center around “assumptions about future greenhouse gas emis­ sions and how the atmosphere and climate responds to those emissions.” Specific climate changes include increases in temperature, which can vary by location (coastal versus inland, southern versus northern areas) and season (winter versus summer); changes in precipitation by location and season; changes in extreme events such as temperature exceeding certain thresholds; total number of frost days; high precipitation (volume or duration); increased hurricane intensity; and changes in sea level. The research summarizes the potential effects of these climatic changes on transportation infrastructure and operations and maintenance, and presents adaptation strategies to address them. Transportation Technology Drivers Although a number of the NCHRP Report 750 Series reports have identified transportation technology as a driver or influence, it was studied mainly from the perspective of enabling trans­ portation agency policy or function outcomes. NCHRP Report 750, Volume 3 (Popper et al., 2013) does not characterize any particular drivers or influences on future conditions per se but rather focuses on the selection and evaluation of technology to address common transportation agency goals (e.g., safety, mobility, preservation, and sustainability) and to support agency func­ tions (e.g., planning, designing, constructing, operating, and maintaining). The research pres­ ents a framework and methodology called STREAM (Systematic Technology Reconnaissance, Evaluation, and Adoption Method) for assessing and selecting technology solutions (current or prospective) to address transportation agency goals and activities that help meet those goals. STREAM is a five­step process that uses a “common framework and vocabulary” so that it is understandable and encourages knowledge sharing among multiple transportation agencies. It serves as a “best practice checklist” for improving the quality of agency evaluation and decision making and a “forensic checklist” to help identify obstacles. This application presents a “general­ izable approach to expediting technology adoption in transportation.” Evaluating technologies for bridge deck inspections, evaluating alternative approaches to road deicing and ice preven­ tion, and evaluating alternative means for providing real­time traffic information to drivers are

Drivers and Scenarios 17 examples of the STREAM application and its potential use. Users of STREAM are envisioned to be distributed among multiple transportation agencies so that discrete steps could be conducted individually or collaboratively. Additionally, processes and outcomes would be consistent and shareable when the application is used by many agencies. NCHRP Report 750, Volume 3 (Popper et al., 2013) does not explore explicit drivers for future technology applications nor identify such technologies. However, it presents a framework for considering how to evaluate them. The framework is structured to avoid shortcomings of exist­ ing technology evaluations that often result in duplicative effort and conclusions that are not necessarily transferable from one agency to another. Freight Perspective Finally, NCHRP Report 750, Volume 1 (Caplice and Phadnis, 2013) sought, in part, to identify and analyze driving forces and uncertainties that may affect the future U.S. freight transportation system. The most significant (and most uncertain) forces were the level of global trade, potential re­domestication of manufacturing (including personal fabrication), and resource availability. Each of these forces would greatly impact levels of infrastructure investment. More certain driv­ ing forces expected to continue to increase were high and volatile fuel prices, increased use of battery vehicles, widespread use of “senseable” networks, and increased use of virtual working and online retailing. Other identified forces include increased security concerns and increased sustainability regulations for addressing social responsibility, environmental emissions, resource usage, and trade practices. Other U.S. Literature Two publications that help frame long­range future perspectives of transportation (TRB, 2013 and FHWA, 2015) were reviewed. Specifically, these publications help to characterize and con­ firm scenarios for evaluating implications of PMR emerging and innovative practices. In addi­ tion, literature on connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) is particularly relevant because it identifies the potential for this technology to impact future PMR practices (Wright et al., 2014; Zografos, 2013; Bierstedt et al., 2014; Lockwood, 2015; Wagner et al., 2014). The latter set of documents is particularly relevant because CAVs would either create a new type of highway infrastructure that would make up a large share of the TO asset value in the future (similar to or exceeding the pavement or bridge asset values of today) or would require a newer generation of conventional infrastructure elements (e.g., newer lane markings, embedded lane delineation devices, narrower lanes with channelized traffic, etc.) that have implications on PMR activities. The TRB report, Critical Issues in Transportation (TRB, 2013), identifies a set of issues, related to all modes to stimulate discussion and further research. These issues include: • Lack of reliable and resilient system performance. • Significant, avoidable deaths and injuries despite improved safety. • Large scale, unsustainable impacts on energy, the environment, and climate. • Inadequate funding sources for public infrastructure. • Lagging innovation in passenger mobility services and in public­sector infrastructure. • Low and declining funding for research and development (R&D) investment. FHWA’s Strategic Plan (2015) identifies a set of key trends that are “strategically relevant to assessing FHWA’s future operating environment over the next decade.” These trends have helped

18 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation FHWA set long­term goals and objectives, and to develop a supporting performance measure­ ment plan. These near­term trends (fewer than 30­50 years) align well with drivers identified in other forward­looking literature and could remain relevant beyond the 10­year timeframe. The trends include: • Demographic shifts: population growth, patterns, development of megaregions. • Globalization of economies: longer­distance freight networks, greater freight volumes. • Economic competitiveness and productivity: beneficial contribution of highways to industry productivity and competitiveness. • Role of trade: increase in trade as a percentage of GDP. • Future funding needs: costs to maintain and improve beyond projections from existing sources. • Public view of transportation: volatility in perceptions of satisfaction. • Climate change: percentage of transportation sector’s contribution of carbon dioxide emissions. • Highway system performance: worsening metropolitan traffic congestion from population growth, urbanization, increasing freight traffic, and roadway maintenance activities. • Highway and bridge conditions: worsening conditions given static levels of investment. • Traffic safety: continued loss of life despite gains in safety equipment and behavior. • Construction cost inflation: potential for construction cost escalation from demand in rapidly developing countries. • Changing construction processes and methodologies: new construction techniques (e.g., pre­ fabricated bridges) driving a need for changes in project development processes and creating the potential to minimize traffic disruption and congestion, improve work zone safety, and lower costs. • Project cost and complexity: broader range of required activities by transportation agencies, development of new in­house capabilities, outsourcing to new partners, new organizational structures and project management approaches, new options to mitigate and share project risk. • New contracting approaches and outsourcing. • Program delivery: more transparent, participatory, interrelated, and complex agency priority­ setting practices with greater performance measurement and accountability. • Workforce attrition and employee shortages: loss of institutional knowledge, expertise, and experience. Significant progress has been made in recent years on research, forecasts, and the identifica­ tion of potential future impacts associated with automated and connected vehicles. AASHTO, the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT), ITS­America, and others have sug­ gested a set of trends that will have implications on future roadway PMR. While still in the early stages of consideration, some of the key implications, especially in the long term, may include: • Adaptive reuse of rights­of­way, and potential redesigns of facilities (lane widths, shoulder requirements) to accommodate and leverage the benefits of greater automation. • New and more rigorous requirements/standards for signing and marking during PMR activities. • Pavement and bridge design parameters for dedicated heavy­duty vehicle lanes. • Potential substitutions of in­vehicle/mobile communications for sources that are currently external (e.g., dynamic message and certain fixed signing).

Drivers and Scenarios 19 Drivers, Scenarios, and Scenario Elements and Lenses Developing the Drivers Building upon work reported in the literature, a set of drivers of long­term change and likely scenarios were analyzed to identify potential highway infrastructure­related long­range drivers and scenarios. The focus became those drivers and scenarios that relate to PMR issues. It is important to recognize that a robust and increasingly resilient and adaptive network of streets and highways will continue to be needed into the future and that the building blocks of this network will continue to include pavements, bridges, tunnels, drainage systems, and other components of highway infrastructure that are familiar in today’s world. However, the trajecto­ ries of various trends and driving forces suggest that the ways in which the highway infrastruc­ ture is maintained, preserved, and renewed will change significantly over the next 3 to 5 decades. These changes will occur in response to changes in the level and patterns of usage of the system; the introduction of emerging and innovative materials, methods, and technologies; and avail­ ability of financial and human resources to investigate and implement beneficial practices. While the drivers of future change are likely to vary, the scenarios that cover the entire domain of PMR­related possibilities need to be considered. The implications of these drivers and sce­ narios, referred to as “scenario lenses,” will provide clear images of potential needs and ultimately target specific PMR activities. The analysis of various drivers determined that the drivers and scenarios considered in NCHRP Project 20­83(03) (TTI, 2014) are a subset of and mirror to those considered in other closely related research (FEHRL, 2008; NSTPRC, 2007). However, in reviewing the 18 identified drivers, it became apparent that there was much overlap and interconnectedness among them to suggest the need for a simplified and a more robust framework. Therefore, the research team clarified their descriptors and condensed them into the following eight, non­overlapping “driver categories” that provide a more clear relationship to emerging PMR practice implications: • Demographics, Economics, and Transportation Demand. • Resilience and Security: Natural and Man­Made Threats. • Stewardship: Natural Resources and Communities. • Financial Resources: Sources, Priorities, and Effectiveness. • Technology – Materials and Methods. • Technology – Information and Analysis. • Vehicle Characteristics and Operations. • Institutional Changes and Choices. Scenarios Relevant to PMR The set of 18 drivers identified in NCHRP Project 20­83(03) (TTI, 2012) served as the basis for developing seven scenarios that reflect a reasonable range of plausible long­range variations in six selected transportation areas: traffic services, pavement and materials, construction, trans­ portation structures, roadside and drainage, and connectivity. However, a review of the NCHRP Project 20­83(03) Task 6 report (TTI, 2014) indicated that although these seven scenarios might indeed have different implications for addressing the addition of new highway capacity or for the expansion of existing facilities, they do not indicate a significant range in the scope and level of the PMR activities required for the infrastructure that exists today or likely to exist in the long­

20 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation term future (not too many streets and highways are likely to be removed from service). Thus, under any set of plausible scenarios, PMR activities in varying degrees and in varying ways will be needed for a network that largely exists today. Therefore, the research team focused on devel­ oping scenarios that correlate specifically with the consequences anticipated for each of the eight PMR­related driver categories (referred to as “corresponding scenarios”). These scenarios are: • Demographics and Demand: Growing population, expanding economy, increasing traffic, larger trucks, heavier loads. • Resiliency and Security: Greater resiliency and ability to manage risks from man­made and natural threats. • Stewardship: Sustainable strategies to protect and enhance the natural and built environments. • Resources and Results: Innovative models for financing and performance accountability from PMR investments. • Materials and Methods: Dramatically improved, high­performance materials and methods (strength, durability, workability). • Smart Infrastructure: Self­reporting, self­managing infrastructure via remote sensing/auto­ mated information flow. • Smart Vehicles: Automated, self­driving, connected vehicles serve as probes reporting condi­ tion information. • Customer Focus: Transformative institutional arrangements focusing on human resources and customer culture. These eight corresponding scenarios do not describe alternative future worlds [as suggested in NCHRP 20­83(03), TTI, 2014]. However, they describe a future in which all these scenarios can and will likely play a part. The contribution of each of these scenarios will define how the future worlds may materialize. Nevertheless, the importance of the highway network and the scope of PMR activities will likely be paramount in all scenarios. Scenario Elements and Scenario Lenses The eight broad­based driver categories and corresponding scenarios were dissected into ap­ proximately 40 individual scenario elements. Each scenario element was defined with sufficient specificity so that their implications with respect to PMR highway infrastructure activities would become clear. These eight driver categories, corresponding scenarios, and scenario elements were then used to derive key implications for PMR practices. Approximately 75 implications were derived as part of this process; these were termed scenario lenses, as they provide the focus needed to move from drivers and resulting scenarios to prospective PMR practices with promis­ ing emerging and innovative features. This process resulted in the framework presented in Table 2, which provides an easy­to­follow pathway for identifying, researching, evaluating, promoting, and implementing promising emerging/innovative practices. The framework presented in Table 2 provides a logical process to hone in on a long list of potential PMR practices. At one end, the framework is looking ahead with drivers and scenarios that lead to plausible emerging and innovative practices and, at the other end, looking back at the then prevailing practices to test how well they responded to the driving forces and scenarios that have been defined. The basic premise of the research was that if the range of future possibilities can be imagined, then the key drivers and scenarios can be identified, which will lead to future actions and appropriate preparations.

Drivers and Scenarios 21 Dr iv er C at eg or ie s (C or re sp on di ng S ce na rio s) Co rr es po nd in g Sc en ar io E le m en ts Sc en ar io L en se s (Im pl ic at io ns o f D riv er s an d Sc en ar io s on P M R Pr ac tic es ) 1. D em og ra ph ic s, E co no m ic s, an d Tr an sp or ta tio n D em an d (G ro w in g po pu la tio n, ex pa nd in g ec on om y, in cr ea si ng tr af fic , l ar ge r t ru ck s, he av ie r l oa ds ) • Po pu la tio n an d em pl oy m en t g ro w th , c ha ng e in pa tte rn s of re gi on al d ev el op m en t ( m eg a- re gi on s) an d pa ss en ge r/f re ig ht tr av el d em an d • C ha ng es in e co no m ic o ut pu t: vo lu m e, w ei gh t • C ha ng es in fr ei gh t c ha ra ct er is tic s: g re at er v ol um es of h ig he r v al ue c ar go , n ee d fo r g re at er tr ip ti m e re lia bi lit y, pr es su re to in cr ea se s iz e/ w ei gh t l im its • Ev ol ut io n of v eh ic le m ix to “l ar ge r l ar ge ” a nd “s m al le r s m al l” ve hi cl es • VM T gr ow th fo r p as se ng er a nd fr ei gh t t ra ffi c • In cr ea se d co ng es tio n: g re at er m ag ni tu de , i nc re as ed fr eq ue nc y, an d ne w lo ca tio ns • Le ss to le ra nc e fo r t ra ffi c di sr up tio n du e to P M R a ct iv iti es • Fo cu s on o ff- pe ak h ou rs : m or e ni gh tti m e ac tiv ity fo r P M R • G re at er e m ph as is o n w or k- zo ne s af et y w ith p re ss ur e fo r f ew er la ne s an d sh or te r se gm en ts ta ke n ou t o f s er vi ce fo r P M R a ct iv ity • G re at er in te re st in tr uc k- on ly la ne s an d fa ci lit ie s • D es ig ns to a cc om m od at e lo ng er c om bi na tio n ve hi cl es , p la to on in g op po rtu ni tie s, pl at oo n as se m bl y/ di sa ss em bl y lo ca tio ns • N ee d fo r s tro ng er , m or e du ra bl e pa ve m en ts in tr uc k- on ly a nd m ixe d tra ffi c la ne s • N ee d fo r b rid ge s tre ng th en in g to a cc om m od at e ne w a xl e w ei gh t a nd a xl e co nfi gu ra tio ns , p ar tic ul ar ly fo r l on ge r c om bi na tio n ve hi cl es /p la to on s • U pg ra de d cr os s se ct io ns a nd g eo m et ry in re ne w al p ro je ct s • D es ire to s ep ar at e ex tre m es o f v eh ic le s iz e an d pe rfo rm an ce c ha ra ct er is tic s 2. R es ilie nc e an d Se cu rit y: N at ur al a nd M an -m ad e Th re at s (G re at er re si lie nc y an d ab ilit y to m an ag e ris ks fr om m an - m ad e an d na tu ra l t hr ea ts ) • C lim at e ch an ge a nd e xt re m e w ea th er im pa ct s m an ife st ed b y — L on g- te rm , c on tin uo us tr en ds (s uc h as s ea - le ve l r is e, c ha ng es in te m pe ra tu re , l on g- te rm dr ou gh t) — T he m ag ni tu de , i nt en si ty, fr eq ue nc y an d lo ca tio n of c at as tro ph ic e ve nt s, s uc h as ri ve rin e flo od in g, tid al s ur ge s, e xt re m e w in d, s lip -p la ne in du ce d av al an ch es , e tc . • C at as tro ph ic g eo lo gi ca lly in du ce d ev en ts : — E ar th qu ak es , l an ds lid es , v ol ca ni c er up tio ns , re su lti ng ts un am is , a nd g eo lo gi ca lly in du ce d av al an ch es • C at as tro ph ic h om el an d te rro ris m a nd im pa ct s on in fra st ru ct ur e • C yb er a tta ck s im pa ct in g tra ns po rta tio n op er at io ns • H ig hw ay n et w or k re du nd an cy fo r c rit ic al c or rid or s an d ac ce ss ro ut es • R es ilie nt , t hr ea t m an ag em en t r el at ed -d es ig ns ti ed to le ve ls o f r is k • R ob us t, life -c yc le p re se rv at io n, m ai nt en an ce a nd re ne w al p ra ct ic es • Im pr ov ed in ve nt or ie s an d co nd iti on /v ul ne ra bi lit y as se ss m en ts o f s ys te m -c rit ic al a ss et s • Im pr ov ed p re di ct ive , d et ec tio n, a nd s en si ng c ap ab ilit y • Im pr ov ed s tre ng th o f m at er ia ls a nd d ur ab ilit y of d es ig ns • R ap id re sp on se c ap ab ilit ie s to re st or e op er at io ns • C ol la bo ra tiv e pl an ni ng fo r r es ilie nc y in ve st m en ts a nd e m er ge nc y re sp on se a m on g m ul ti- ju ris di ct io na l n et w or k ow ne rs • Im pr ov ed s ys te m s fo r r ap id tu rn ar ou nd a nd re lia bi lit y of d am ag e as se ss m en t • C rit er ia fo r p ot en tia lly a ba nd on in g da m ag ed h ig hw ay s ys te m s eg m en ts a nd a ss et s (c o n ti n u ed o n n ex t p ag e) Ta b le 2 . D ri ve rs , s ce n ar io s, a n d t h ei r im p lic at io n s o n P M R p ra ct ic es .

22 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Dr iv er C at eg or ie s (C or re sp on di ng S ce na rio s) Co rr es po nd in g Sc en ar io E le m en ts Sc en ar io L en se s (Im pl ic at io ns o f D riv er s an d Sc en ar io s on P M R Pr ac tic es ) 3. S te w ar ds hi p: N at ur al R es ou rc es a nd C om m un iti es (S us ta in ab le s tra te gi es to pr ot ec t a nd e nh an ce th e na tu ra l a nd b ui lt en vi ro nm en ts ) • Pr es su re fo r p re se rv in g an d re st or in g th e na tu ra l en vi ro nm en t • Fo cu s on c le an a ir, g re en ho us e ga s re du ct io n, a nd su ffi ci en t a va ila bi lit y of c le an w at er • In cr ea si ng re qu ire m en ts fo r c on tro llin g qu an tit y an d qu al ity o f s to rm w at er ru no ff • Ex pa nd ed in te re st in e ro si on a nd s ed im en t c on tro l • Pr es su re to p re se rv e an d en ha nc e th e ch ar ac te r an d liv ab ilit y of c om m un iti es • D es ire to m iti ga te in tru si ve n oi se a nd v ib ra tio ns in de ve lo pe d ar ea s • Se ns iti vi ty a m on g bu si ne ss es • D riv e to w ar d cl ea ne r, ch ea pe r, re ne w ab le e ne rg y • Ex pa nd ed in te re st in a nd m ea ns fo r c om m un ity en ga ge m en t a nd tr an sp ar en cy • C le an u p of s up er fu nd a nd o th er e nv iro nm en ta lly co nt am in at ed s ite s • In cr ea si ng c ha lle ng es in c os t-e ffe ct ive w as te di sp os al • G ro w in g in te re st in in fra st ru ct ur e su st ai na bi lit y ra tin g sy st em s • M or e en vi ro nm en ta lly s en si tiv e an d ho lis tic a pp ro ac h to s us ta in ab le d es ig ns , m at er ia ls , m et ho ds re la te d to P M R p ra ct ic es • Ex pa nd ed a tte nt io n to re cy cl in g an d re us e, m in im al w as te , l oc al iz ed s ou rc es o f m at er ia ls , b en ig n sn ow a nd ic e co nt ro l, co nt ro llin g qu al ity a nd q ua nt ity o f r un of f, se ns iti vi ty to n at ur al a nd b ui lt en vi ro nm en ts , c om m un ity c oh es io n, e nv iro nm en ta l ju st ic e, e tc . • M or e ef fic ie nt a nd c le an er e ne rg y co ns um pt io n in P M R a ct iv ity • D em an ds to m in im iz e co m m un ity im pa ct d ur in g PM R a ct iv ity • D ep le tio n of n at ur al re so ur ce s us ed fo r c on st ru ct io n m at er ia ls , a nd a ss oc ia te d da m ag e fro m e xt ra ct io n an d tra ns po rt • In te re st in m at er ia ls s ub st itu tio ns w ith n at ur al re so ur ce a nd e nv iro nm en ta l b en efi ts • Pr es su re fo r i m pr ov ed li fe -c yc le c os t a pp ro ac he s in m at er ia ls s el ec tio n • D riv e to w ar d ze ro -w as te re cy cl in g • R ed uc tio n in e nv iro nm en ta l f oo tp rin t o f m at er ia ls p ro du ct io n, tr an sp or t, an d in st al la tio n • M in im iz in g an d m iti ga tin g en vi ro nm en ta l i m pa ct s du rin g PM R a ct iv ity (d us t, no is e, em is si on s, ru no ff, e tc .) • In cr ea se d co m m un ity e ng ag em en t/c us to m er in te ra ct io n in P M R a ct iv ity • R ep la ce m en t o f c or ro si ve c he m ic al s (s uc h as s od iu m c hl or id e) in w in te r m ai nt en an ce ac tiv iti es • En vi ro nm en ta l a w ar en es s in h ig hw ay m ai nt en an ce s ho p op er at io ns • C le an -u p of c on ta m in at ed s ite s on h ig hw ay ri gh ts -o f-w ay a nd m ai nt en an ce , s to ra ge , an d di sp os al fa ci lit ie s • In cr ea se d us e of m ea su re m en t, ra tin gs a nd p er fo rm an ce e va lu at io ns in a ss es si ng ef fe ct ive ne ss o f e nv iro nm en ta l m ea su re s (c o n ti n u ed o n n ex t p ag e) Ta b le 2 . D ri ve rs , s ce n ar io s, a n d t h ei r im p lic at io n s o n P M R p ra ct ic es ( co n ti n u ed ).

Drivers and Scenarios 23 Dr iv er C at eg or ie s (C or re sp on di ng S ce na rio s) Co rr es po nd in g Sc en ar io E le m en ts Sc en ar io L en se s (Im pl ic at io ns o f D riv er s an d Sc en ar io s on P M R Pr ac tic es ) 4. F in an ci al R es ou rc es : So ur ce s, P rio rit ie s, a nd Ef fe ct ive ne ss (In no va tiv e m od el s fo r fin an ci ng a nd p er fo rm an ce ac co un ta bi lit y fro m P M R in ve st m en ts ) • D ec lin e in th e do m in an ce o f f ed er al fu nd in g • Ex pa nd ed ro le o f s ta te a nd lo ca l f un di ng • Ba rri er s to in cr ea si ng tr an sp or ta tio n re ve nu es , pa rti cu la rly a t t he fe de ra l l ev el • Po te nt ia l n ew fu nd in g so ur ce s (m ile ag e- ba se d us er fe es , c ar bo n ta x, o ff- sh or e co rp or at e ta x re cl am at io n) • In cr ea se d us e of d ire ct u se r f ee s an d pr ic in g sc he m es • Tr en d to w ar d “fi x- it- fir st ” s tra te gi es • Ex pa nd ed in te re st in a cc ou nt ab ilit y fo r h ow tra ns po rta tio n fu nd s ar e al lo ca te d an d pr io rit ie s se t • D em an d fo r d at a- dr ive n, o ut co m e- fo cu se d, pe rfo rm an ce -m ea su re d as se ss m en ts o f “ va lu e fo r m on ey ” • Pr es su re to “d o m or e w ith le ss ” n ev er g oe s aw ay • Pe re nn ia l c om pe tit io n be tw ee n in ve st m en ts in s ys te m e xp an si on v er su s PM R • N ee d fo r p rio rit iz at io n: e xp an si on v s. P M R , p re ve nt ive v s. re ac tiv e, u rg en t v s. d ef er ra bl e • M or e st ra te gi c th in ki ng a nd s ys te m s ap pr oa ch in P M R p rio rit iz at io n • Es se nt ia l r ol e fo r l ife -c yc le a ss et m an ag em en t p ra ct ic es a nd h ol is tic m ai nt en an ce a nd re pa ir st ra te gi es to g ui de re so ur ce a llo ca tio n an d m ea su re e ffe ct ive ne ss • M or e em ph as is o n lo ng -te rm p re ve nt ive m ai nt en an ce s tra te gi es • Ex pa nd ed u se o f p er fo rm an ce w ar ra nt ie s • In cr ea se d de m an d fo r t ra ns pa re nc y, ac co un ta bi lit y, an d pe rfo rm an ce m ea su re m en t i n PM R a ct iv iti es • Ex pa ns io n of to ll fa ci lit ie s w ith d em an ds fo r h ig he r s ta nd ar ds o f m ai nt en an ce a nd re pa ir, a nd m or e fre qu en t r en ew al • D em an ds fo r i nt er - a nd in tra -a ge nc y co or di na tio n, e ffi ci en cy , a cc ou nt ab ilit y 5. T ec hn ol og y: M at er ia ls a nd M et ho ds (D ra m at ic al ly im pr ov ed , h ig h- pe rfo rm an ce m at er ia ls a nd m et ho ds ) • C on tin ue d im pr ov em en ts in m at er ia ls s ci en ce : t he du ra bi lit y, m ai nt ai na bi lit y, re us ab ilit y, di sp os ab ilit y an d co st -e ffe ct ive ne ss o f c on st ru ct io n m at er ia ls • In cr ea se d av ai la bi lit y of s yn th et ic , m an uf ac tu re d m at er ia ls a nd im pr ov ed q ua lit y co nt ro l • Av ai la bi lit y/ ap pl ic at io n of n ew te ch no lo gi es re ga rd in g PM R m et ho ds • R ed uc ed c os t o f p ro du ct s an d m at er ia ls • C on tin ue d br ea kt hr ou gh s in re -u se o f w as te pr od uc ts a nd re cy cl in g m at er ia ls • N ew d es ig n ap pr oa ch es s pe ci fy in g us e of n ew m at er ia ls in n ew c on st ru ct io n an d PM R • N ew a pp ro ac he s to im pr ov e qu al ity a ss ur an ce m et ho ds (t es tin g, tr ac ki ng , d at a m an ag em en t, pr oc es s m od ifi ca tio ns ) • Im pr ov em en t i n st ru ct ur al c om po ne nt s an d co ns tru ct io n m et ho ds • Im pr ov em en t i n co nc re te , a sp ha lt pa ve m en t t ec hn ol og ie s (p re ca st /s el f-c on so lid at in g/ se lf- he al in g/ se lf- di ag no si ng ) • Ex pa nd ed u se o f p re fa br ic at io n of s tru ct ur al e le m en ts , e .g ., br id ge s, p av em en ts • G re at er u se o f f as t-t ra ck te ch ni qu es fo r d em ol iti on , r em ov al , r ep la ce m en t • D em an d fo r v er y lo ng -li ve d as se ts to re du ce fr eq ue nc y of P M R a ct iv iti es • Ex pa nd ed u se o f r ec yc le d m at er ia ls in a ll el em en ts o f h ig hw ay in fra st ru ct ur e (c o n ti n u ed o n n ex t p ag e) Ta b le 2 . D ri ve rs , s ce n ar io s, a n d t h ei r im p lic at io n s o n P M R p ra ct ic es ( co n ti n u ed ).

24 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation Dr iv er C at eg or ie s (C or re sp on di ng S ce na rio s) Co rr es po nd in g Sc en ar io E le m en ts Sc en ar io L en se s (Im pl ic at io ns o f D riv er s an d Sc en ar io s on P M R Pr ac tic es ) 6. T ec hn ol og y: In fo rm at io n an d An al ys is (S el f-r ep or tin g, s el f-m an ag in g in fra st ru ct ur e vi a re m ot e se ns in g an d au to m at ed in fo rm at io n flo w ) • N ew a nd v ar ie d da ta s ou rc es • R ap id ly e vo lv in g, c os t-e ffe ct ive s en so r a nd co m m un ic at io ns te ch no lo gi es • M as si ve c ap ac ity to m an ag e, a rc hi ve , a nd re tri ev e da ta • Au to m at ed a nd in si gh tfu l a na ly si s te ch ni qu es • Ad va nc ed re m ot e an d au to m at ed s en si ng • Sa te llit e, v eh ic le p ro be , p er so na l d ev ic es , a nd o th er re m ot e an d cl os e pr ox im ity se ns in g fo r s ys te m in ve nt or y an d re al -ti m e co nd iti on s • Sm ar t i nf ra st ru ct ur e w ith e m be dd ed , s el f-d ia gn os in g, n on -d es tru ct ive s en si ng fo r co nt in uo us m ea su re m en t a nd in te rv en tio n • Br ea kt hr ou gh s in c ap ac ity to re tri ev e, in te gr at e, m an ag e, a na ly ze , i nt er pr et , co m m un ic at e, a nd re ac t t o “m eg a- da ta ” d riv en in fo rm at io n • Im pr ov ed a na ly tic al a nd p re di ct ive m od el s to fo re ca st n ee d fo r P M R a ct iv iti es to su pp or t r ea l t im e, s ho rt- a nd lo ng -te rm a ss et m an ag em en t • N ee d to a cc es s sk ills fo r e ffe ct ive u pk ee p of a dv an ce d in fo rm at io n an d co m m un ic at io ns te ch no lo gi es 7. V eh ic le C ha ra ct er is tic s an d O pe ra tio ns (A ut om at ed s el f-d riv in g, co nn ec te d ve hi cl es s er ve a s pr ob es re po rti ng c on di tio n in fo rm at io n) • M ar ke t p en et ra tio n of a ut om at ed a nd c on ne ct ed ve hi cl es : l ig ht a nd h ea vy d ut y ve hi cl es • Sm al le r l ig ht er p er so na l v eh ic le s as so ci at ed w ith au to m at io n • C om m er ci al v eh ic le p la to on in g fo r s af et y an d ef fic ie nc ie s • Ve hi cl e- ba se d pr ob e in fo rm at io n re ga rd in g co nd iti on s an d pe rfo rm an ce • C ha ng es in d es ig n cr ite ria a nd g eo m et ric s ta nd ar ds fo r a ut om at ed /c on ne ct ed v eh ic le s • R ed uc tio ns in n ew c ap ac ity a nd p ot en tia l r ec la m at io n of e xi st in g ca pa ci ty • N ee d fo r c on ne ct ed V 2I ro ad si de in fra st ru ct ur e • C ha ng es in re qu ire m en ts fo r t ra ffi c si gn s, s ig na ls , m ar ki ng s an d de lin ea tio n • In cr ea se d ne ed fo r c on si st en t i nf ra st ru ct ur e “re ad ab ilit y” b y au to m at ed a nd c on ne ct ed ve hi cl es — a sp ec ia l c ha lle ng e du rin g PM R a ct iv iti es • C ha ng es in b rid ge lo ad in gs d ue to c om m er ci al v eh ic le p la to on in g (c o n ti n u ed o n n ex t p ag e) Ta b le 2 . D ri ve rs , s ce n ar io s, a n d t h ei r im p lic at io n s o n P M R p ra ct ic es ( co n ti n u ed ).

Drivers and Scenarios 25 Dr iv er C at eg or ie s (C or re sp on di ng S ce na rio s) Co rr es po nd in g Sc en ar io E le m en ts Sc en ar io L en se s (Im pl ic at io ns o f D riv er s an d Sc en ar io s on P M R Pr ac tic es ) 8. I ns tit ut io na l C ha ng es a nd C ho ic es (T ra ns fo rm at ive in st itu tio na l ar ra ng em en ts fo cu si ng on h um an re so ur ce s an d cu st om er c ul tu re ) • Pr es su re fo r m or e cu st om er -fr ie nd ly, m or e re sp on si ve , m or e tra ns pa re nt , m or e ac co un ta bl e, m or e ef fic ie nt , a nd m or e ef fe ct ive g ov er nm en t • Pr es su re to re du ce th e si ze a nd ro le o f t he fe de ra l go ve rn m en t • G ro w th in m eg a- re gi on in te rg ov er nm en ta l co lla bo ra tio n, a nd o n oc ca si on , i nt eg ra tio n of re gi on al fu nc tio ns (s uc h as tr an sp or ta tio n) • Ex pe di en cy o f a ut on om ou s, s pe ci al p ur po se p ub lic au th or iti es , w ith in de pe nd en t r ev en ue s ou rc es , fo cu se d on w el l-d efi ne d m is si on s • In te re st in e xp an di ng p riv at e- se ct or in vo lve m en t i n tra di tio na l g ov er nm en t r ol es — co nt in ue d gr ow th in pu bl ic –p riv at e pa rtn er sh ip s • G ro w in g re co gn iti on th at p riv at iz at io n of v ita l p ub lic se rv ic es c an no t e lim in at e pu bl ic -s ec to r o ve rs ig ht , re gu la tio n, a nd u lti m at e ac co un ta bi lit y • Ba rri er s to a ttr ac tin g be st a nd b rig ht es t t o pu bl ic - se ct or jo bs • C ha ng e in la bo r f or ce c ha ra ct er is tic s • N ew fo rm s of tr ai ni ng a nd e du ca tio n • In cr ea se s in h ig hw ay p ub lic –p riv at e pa rtn er sh ip s, in cl ud in g pr iva te -s ec to r fi na nc e, de si gn –b ui ld , o pe ra te , m ai nt ai n (F /D /B /O /M ) • Tr en ds to w ar ds p riv at iz at io n in fa ci lit y “o w ne rs hi p” v ia lo ng -te rm le as in g ar ra ng em en ts bu t w ith p ub lic -s ec to r o ve rs ig ht a nd u lti m at e ac co un ta bi lit y • Fa ci lit y- sp ec ifi c hi gh w ay p ro je ct s w ith in de pe nd en t f un di ng s tre am s— ty pi ca lly to ll re la te d • Po te nt ia l s ep ar at io n of s ys te m p la nn in g, d ev el op m en t, an d po te nt ia l e xp an si on ro le s fro m s ys te m P M R ro le s in to d iff er en t a ge nc ie s • Ex pe ct at io n of h ig he r P M R s ta nd ar ds o n to ll fa ci lit ie s • M ai ns tre am in g pe rfo rm an ce m an ag em en t, tra ns pa re nc y, ac co un ta bi lit y an d st ak eh ol de r e ng ag em en t i nt o tra ns po rta tio n ag en cy c ul tu re s • N ew p ro cu re m en t/c on tra ct in g st ra te gi es (e .g ., al lia nc e co nt ra ct in g) th at b et te r a lig n pu bl ic - a nd p riv at e- se ct or o bj ec tiv es a nd in ce nt ive s • Al te rn at ive b us in es s m od el s fo r a ge nc y st ru ct ur es , i nc lu di ng tr an sf or m at ive s up po rt an d se rv ic e- or ie nt ed ro le s fo r h um an re so ur ce s, in fo rm at io n te ch no lo gy , a nd le ga l se rv ic es • N ee d to d efi ne c or e pu bl ic -s ec to r p ol ic y, pr og ra m o ve rs ig ht , a nd te ch ni ca l s ta ff ro le s an d ca pa bi lit y re qu ire m en ts fo r P M R a ct iv iti es Ta b le 2 . D ri ve rs , s ce n ar io s, a n d t h ei r im p lic at io n s o n P M R p ra ct ic es ( co n ti n u ed ).