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New Expectations for the Food System

Patrick Stover, Texas A&M University, provided introductory remarks on new expectations for the food system and highlighted several recent publications relevant to the topic of the workshop.

FOOD SYSTEM EXPECTATIONS

As described by Stover, the two main goals of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) Agriculture Innovation Agenda¹ are to increase food production by 40 percent and reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture by 50 percent by 2050. He pointed out that food systems, people, the environment, and the economy are interconnected and interdependent, and they all require a systems thinking approach.

Stover explained that the number of people globally who are food insecure is expected to increase, as are costly diet-related chronic diseases. While the food system was historically designed to produce sufficient food to fuel a growing economy, he observed, it must now also nourish and sustain health, the environment, and agriculture. Looking to the future, the world’s population is estimated to rise to 10 billion by 2050, requiring the production of more food on less land in the face of growing weather constraints.

In addition to producing more food, Stover continued, the world’s food system should produce better food. He stated that advances in science and

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¹ See USDA’s Agriculture Innovation Agenda, available at https://www.usda.gov/aia (accessed September 16, 2020).

technology have introduced an emerging potential for the food system to address such issues as nutrient deficiencies, prevention and management of chronic disease, reduction of environmental impact, the economic sustainability of agriculture, the diversity of the food supply, the affordability and accessibility of food, and reduction of health care costs. He added that the U.S. federal fiscal year 2020 agriculture appropriations bill included an examination of how advances in science, policy, and practice related to healthier food enhance overall health, reduce obesity and related comorbidities, and lower health care costs.

RECENT PUBLICATIONS ON THE SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF THE FOOD SYSTEM

Stover described a series of past workshops and reports of the Food and Nutrition Board that provided background and context for the present workshop. He cited the 2012 workshop summary Exploring Health and Environmental Costs of Food, noting that speakers at that workshop highlighted how the current emphasis of the food system on reducing hunger and providing access to affordable calories has shifted the focus from the cost of food production to costs associated with other domains, such as health care, the environment, and national security (IOM and NRC, 2012). A systems approach is needed, Stover asserted, to address the costs in these domains that are tied to the food and agriculture system.

Stover then turned to the 2015 consensus study report A Framework for Assessing Effects of the Food System, which he said was intended to facilitate making holistic, science-informed decisions about food system policy and practice (IOM and NRC, 2015). As he described and as depicted in Figure 2-1, the report states that the food system is a complex, dynamic, adaptive system with goods and services flowing from farm inputs to the consumer, and reverse flows of money and demand information from the consumer back to the farm inputs. He added that many actors, players, domains such as social organizations, science and technology, the biophysical environment, and markets and policies influence these flows.

According to Stover, the report asserts, as shown in Figure 2-2, that food systems should promote the four goals of human health, environmental health, social health, and economic health. As he explained, it also suggests that the assessment of any change to the food system requires a systems approach, including an examination of the impact of the change on the entire value chain, from farm to consumer, and any unintended consequences. He noted further that, according to the report, such disruptions as social movements, weather, market forces, and even pandemics can have impacts on the entire food scystem. A key theme of the report, he explained, is the trade-offs among health, environmental, social, and

economic outcomes. He noted the report’s emphasis on the importance of developing and using the best metrics, methods, and standards of evidence to inform food system policy and practice.

Stover also provided context regarding technological advances that could transform the food system, including a reduction in its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. He explained that agriculture accounts for about 10 percent of all GHG emissions in the United States and an even greater percentage globally² and referenced Dr. Rattan Lal, recipient of the 2020 World Food Prize, who stated that a 2 percent increase in the carbon content of the soil could offset 100 percent of the GHG emissions in the atmosphere.

As another example, Stover pointed to innovations in food and probiotics and in precision agriculture being used to reduce methane production. As an example, he cited the conversion of animal waste to fertilizer to enrich soil and promote plant growth, lowering the environmental impact of raising animals for food. Other innovations Stover suggested could reduce the environmental impact of agriculture include the use of silicates to capture atmospheric carbon in farmland, improved productivity of livestock through feed and genetics so that fewer animals are needed, and recycling of manure. He noted that climate change can impact agriculture through temperature increases and fluctuations in weather that reduce plant yields and cause flooding that disrupts animal agriculture.

Stover described some additional food system innovations, including increased local production of food through urban and controlled-environment agriculture.³ These innovations, he explained, can reduce chemical inputs by 90–95 percent and provide a yield similar to that produced with traditional methods while using one-tenth of the land. However, he noted that these innovations are not cost competitive with traditional agriculture.

Next, Stover highlighted the Food and Nutrition Board’s 2017 consensus study report on Dietary Reference Intakes based on chronic disease endpoints (NASEM, 2017). He explained that this report reflects a shift from using nutrient status and deficiencies to using prevention or management of chronic disease as the basis for determining nutrient needs for the American population. Given the complexity of chronic diseases, he argued, a systems approach is needed to understand the role of nutrients, physiology, and metabolism in those diseases. Both the National Institutes of Health and USDA (NIH, 2020; USDA, 2020) released strategic plans in 2020 that address nutrition research and include an emphasis on precision

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² See EPA’s “Sources of Greenhouse Emissions,” available at https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions (accessed September 16, 2020).

³ According to the Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, controlled-environment agriculture is “an advanced and intensive form of hydroponically-based agriculture where plants grow within a controlled environment to optimize horticultural practices” (Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, 2020).

nutrition, which involves understanding the heterogeneity in how food interacts with people in the development of chronic disease. This analysis of the connection between food and individual health outcomes requires a systems approach, Stover asserted.

Stover also pointed to the need for improved understanding of the economics of the food system, as it accounts for 10 percent of U.S. employment and 5.4 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Thus, he asserted, changes to the food system to achieve health and environmental goals will need to align with economics. He argued that new economic markets for farmers and ranchers must be created that will allow agriculture to become carbon neutral or positive, aligning economic with environmental and health outcomes of the food system.

In light of the impact of COVID-19 on the entire agriculture and food system value chain, in June 2020 the National Academies’ Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources held a webinar⁴ on COVID-19 and the food system that featured former U.S. and California secretaries of agriculture. Stover shared his key takeaways from the webinar, including that the food system had not been as resilient as it could have been in response to the pandemic. Participants in the webinar stressed that faster responses were needed to address changes in markets and consumer behavior, and that scenario planning examining system dynamics could be used to develop those responses. Participants also emphasized that climate change is a threat to agriculture and that preparations are needed to address this threat. In addition, the webinar highlighted that people with diet-related chronic diseases are the most vulnerable to experiencing adverse health effects from COVID-19, and that people from underserved minority communities, many of whom work in the food system, have been disproportionately affected.

In conclusion, Stover stated that the new expectations for the food system are clear, but the paths to achieving them are not, and he highlighted the importance of using high-quality science to determine the path forward. He suggested that the remainder of the workshop would address how the new expectations for the food system could be realized through science-based solutions that ensure the sustainability of agriculture and food systems for future generations.

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⁴ Available at https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/06-19-2020/covid-19-and-the-food-and-agricultural-system (accessed September 16, 2020).

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