Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions (2023)

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Prepublication Draft: Subject to Editorial Correction ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies Board on Environmental Change and Society Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Transportation Research Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine National Academies Press Washington, DC Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, ClearPath Foundation, Breakthrough Energy, Heising-Simons Foundation, Incite Labs, Quadrivium Foundation, and the U.S. Energy Foundation, with support from the National Academy of Sciences Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Fund, National Academy of Sciences Arthur L. Day Fund, National Academy of Sciences Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, and the National Academies Mitchell Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25931 This publication is available in limited quantities from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 bees@nas.edu http://www.sites.nationalacademies.org/DEPS/BEES This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25931. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

COMMITTEE ON ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES: TECHNOLOGY, POLICY, AND SOCIETAL DIMENSIONS STEPHEN W. PACALA (NAS), Princeton University, Chair DANIELLE DEANE-RYAN, New School ALEXANDRA “SANDY” FAZELI, National Association of State Energy Officials KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University JULIA H. HAGGERTY, Montana State University CHRIS T. HENDRICKSON (NAE), Carnegie Mellon University ADRIENNE L. HOLLIS, 1 National Wildlife Federation 0F JESSE JENKINS, 2 Princeton University 1F ROXANNE JOHNSON, BlueGreen Alliance TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology VIVIAN E. LOFTNESS, Carnegie Mellon University CARLOS E. MARTÍN, The Brookings Institution MICHAEL A. MÉNDEZ, University of California, Irvine CLARK A. MILLER, Arizona State University JONATHAN A. PATZ (NAM), University of Wisconsin–Madison KEITH PAUSTIAN, Colorado State University WILLIAM “BILLY” PIZER, Resources for the Future VARUN RAI, 3 The University of Texas at Austin 2F EDWARD “ED” RIGHTOR, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (retired) PATRICIA “PATY” ROMERO-LANKAO, University of Toronto Scarborough DEVASHREE SAHA, World Resources Institute ESTHER S. TAKEUCHI (NAE), 4 Stony Brook University 3F SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group WILLIAM “REED” WALKER, University of California, Berkeley Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES), Study Director ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director, BEES BRENT HEARD, Program Officer, BEES CATHERINE WISE, Program Officer, BEES KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer, BEES REBECCA DEBOER, Research Associate, BEES KYRA HOWE, Research Assistant, BEES JASMINE VICTORIA BRYANT, Research Assistant, BEES KAIA RUSSELL, Program Assistant, BEES IPPOLYTI DELATOLAS, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow, BEES RAPHAEL APEANING, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow, BEES KAVITHA CHINTAM, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow, BEES STEPHEN GODWIN, Scholar, Transportation Research Board CHANDRA MIDDLETON, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society NOTE: See Appendix B, Disclosure of Unavoidable Conflicts of Interest. 1 Resigned from the committee October 2022. 2 Resigned from the committee March 2022. 3 Resigned from the committee April 2022. 4 Resigned from the committee April 2022. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v 

ALEX REICH, Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate ELI NASS, Research Assistant, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences TOM THORNTON, Director, Board on Environmental Change and Society ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Chief of Staff, National Academy of Medicine DAVID BUTLER, J. Herbert Hollomon Scholar, National Academy of Engineering JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society Consultants JENNIFER R. BRATBURD, University of Wisconsin–Madison IPPOLYTI DELATOLAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi 

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group, Chair VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises, LLC CARLA BAILO, ECOS Consulting LOUISE BEDSWORTH, University of California, Berkeley DEEPAKRAJ M. DIVAN (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, TIMECO2 T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJG Energy Associates, LLC PAULA GLOVER, Alliance to Save Energy NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures DENISE GRAY, LG Energy Solution Michigan, Inc. JENNIFER R. HOLMGREN (NAE), LanzaTech JOHN KASSAKIAN (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology MICHAEL LAMACH, Trane Technologies (retired) CARLOS MARTÍN, Brookings Institution JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN (NAE), ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired) ALEXANDER SLOCUM (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology GORDON VAN WELIE (NAE), ISO New England DAVID G. VICTOR, University of California, San Diego Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Director and Scholar ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director BRENT HEARD, Program Officer KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer CATHERINE WISE, Program Officer REBECCA DEBOER, Research Associate KYRA HOWE, Research Assistant JASMINE VICTORIA BRYANT, Research Assistant KAIA RUSSELL, Program Assistant HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii 



Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: JOSEPH ALDY, Harvard Kennedy School DOUGLAS ARENT, National Renewable Energy Laboratory RICHARD BIRDSEY, Woodwell Climate Research Center DANA BOURLAND, The JPB Foundation SANYA CARLEY, Indiana University MIJIN CHA, University of California, Santa Cruz JARED L. COHEN (NAE), Carnegie Mellon University PAMELA EATON, Green West Strategies THOMAS A. FANNING, Southern Company HOWARD FRUMKIN (NAM), University of Washington and Trust for Public Land DOUGLAS HOLLETT, Melroy-Hollett Technology Partners TARA HUDIBURG, University of Idaho THERESA KOTANCHEK (NAE), Evolved Analytics, LLC JOHN LARSEN, Rhodium Group ROBERT LITTERMAN, Kepos Capital PAMELA MATSON (NAS), Stanford University RONI NEFF, Johns Hopkins University JOSEPH POWELL (NAE), ChemePD, LLC JOSÉ G. SANTIESTEBAN (NAE), ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Company (retired) EMILY SCHAPIRA, Philadelphia Energy Authority JOSEPH L. SCHOFER, Northwestern University at Evanston DREW SHINDELL (NAS), Duke University CHRISTOPHER TESSUM, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign MICHAEL VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University School of Law Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the findings or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by CHERRY MURRAY (NAS/NAE), University of Arizona at Tucson and DAVID ALLEN (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix 



Contents PREFACE xii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 SUMMARY 3 1 INTRODUCTION 30 2 ENERGY JUSTICE AND EQUITY 66 3 PUBLIC HEALTH CO-BENEFITS AND IMPACTS OF DECARBONIZATION 112 4 WORKFORCE NEEDS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND SUPPORT 155 5 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT TO BUILD A STRONG SOCIAL CONTRACT FOR DEEP DECARBONIZATION 193 6 THE ESSENTIAL ROLE OF CLEAN ELECTRICITY 241 7 THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT 277 8 LAND USE 326 9 TRANSPORT 362 10 INDUSTRIAL DECARBONIZATION 408 11 ALIGNING THE FINANCIAL SECTOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS WITH THE ENERGY TRANSITION 460 12 THE FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS 533 13 ENHANCING AND REALIZING THE CLIMATE AMBITIONS AND CAPACITIES OF SUBNATIONAL ACTORS: STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PERSPECTIVES 484 APPENDIXES A Committee Member Biographical Information 569 B Disclosure of Unavoidable Conflicts of Interest 576 C First Report Policy Recommendations 578 D Public Meetings 592 E Decarbonization Technologies and Related Equity and Justice Concerns 594 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi 

F Equity and Justice Scorecard: Inflation Reduction Act Provisions 600 G Disadvantaged Community as Defined by Implementers of Justice40 Covered Programs 608 H Public Health Provisions in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act 613 I Public Engagement Scorecard: Current Federal Policy Portfolio 621 J Select Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act Provisions Implicating Subnational Entities 624 K Acronyms and Abbreviations 635 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xii 

Preface As the Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions issues its second and final report, it is worth reflecting on global events that have transpired since we began work in late 2019. Our first meeting in early March 2020 ended with the doors of the National Academies building on Fifth Street NW in Washington, DC, being shut behind us for a COVID-19 lockdown lasting about 2 years. Before our next in-person meeting, the world had weathered its first global pandemic in over a century. The United States was undergoing a reckoning of racial injustices in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, and equity rose as a priority for organizations of all sizes. Russia had invaded Ukraine and demonstrated to everyone the strategic and economic disadvantages associated with a fossil fuel economy. The U.S. Congress had passed the most ambitious set of legislative climate and energy initiatives ever enacted in the United States. These events affected our work in large ways and small, from how we interacted as a committee to the scope and arc of our reports. While the setting changed for this study, the motivation has not. The adverse impacts of climate change continue to grow, exposing ever-wider swathes of society to its destructive effects. Low, non- emitting, and negative emissions technologies continue to be deployed at ever-increasing scales and ever- lower prices across the globe. Governments, companies, and institutions across the globe and within the United States continue to adopt emissions reduction goals and develop plans to achieve zero net emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, usually by midcentury. It was within that context that our first report was released in February 2021. That report produced a technical blueprint and policy portfolio for the first 10 years of a just, prosperous, and equitable 30-year transition to net-zero U.S. emissions. The committee fully appreciated that public support for a decades-long transition could be maintained only by fairly distributing benefits and costs. Amid the expanding focus on climate policy that began with the new Biden administration, we briefed our first report widely and now find that many of its recommendations are either enacted or similar to those implemented in recent legislation. In embarking on the work for our second report, we expanded the committee’s expertise in energy justice, health, workforce, and the role of subnational actors. We also expanded the study to include non-CO2 greenhouse gases, land use, and sectoral analyses. The committee undertook ambitious public information gathering, holding more than 20 webinars on wide-ranging issues, including leveraging financial systems for decarbonization; soil carbon offsets; government, non-profit, and philanthropic perspectives on implementing a just and equitable energy transition; manufacturing and industrial decarbonization; public engagement strategies; and research and development priorities for the buildings sector. The committee gathered for its second in-person meeting on July 26, 2022, to hold a workshop: Pathways to an Equitable and Just Transition: Principles, Best Practices, and Inclusive Stakeholder Engagement. Our meeting in July was especially significant because it was then that the committee concluded that major climate legislation was not forthcoming, and that it was time to move ahead with the knowledge that almost none of the federal actions recommended in the first report would be implemented. Famous last words. Within hours of that decision, it became clear that something historic was afoot in Congress. By the end of the summer, our plate was full with analyses of multiple pieces of federal legislation, executive orders, and regulatory actions aiming to put the country on track for 50 percent emissions reductions by 2030 and net zero by midcentury. This policy environment inspired the report we PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xiii 

have today, one that focuses on filling gaps between the current policy portfolio and the goal of a fair, just, and equitable transition to net zero, and about how to overcome barriers to implementing this robust and unprecedented set of policies. I wish to express my deepest gratitude to the study committee for its patience, perseverance, hard work, and equanimity as we struggled together to communicate across disciplines, to meet difficult deadlines, and to wrestle with a complex and continuously evolving set of policies that will affect everyone. I want to thank the governmental leaders who took bold action to combat a global crisis and especially those inside and outside government who now work every day to implement these actions. We offer our recommendations to these experts with humility, knowing that they have far better understanding of facts on the ground than we do, and that they continually expand and adapt their strategies. I want to thank everyone who provided input to the committee during our public sessions—a list running to hundreds of individuals. And last but by no means least, I wish to express my gratitude to the staff of the National Academies who devoted significant portions of their lives to this effort, with calm expertise and almost supernatural energy and efficiency. Special thanks to K. John Holmes for his tireless leadership and wisdom. Because of this large cast of participants, the committee has produced what we hope will be a useful and significant report, something that will serve both policy makers and the public as we work together to accelerate decarbonization in the United States. Stephen W. Pacala, Chair Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xiv