PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP
Emerging Technology
Intersections and
Partnerships for
Counterproliferation
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This project was supported by The Office of the Director of National Intelligence under Contract No. 2014-14041100003-024. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for this project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68327-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-68327-0
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25939
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National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Emerging Technology Intersections and Partnerships for Counterproliferation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, doi: https://doi.Org/10.17226/25939.
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Emerging Technology
Intersections and
Partnerships for
Counterproliferation
PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP
Jennifer Heimberg, Caryn Leslie, and Lynette I. Millett, Rapporteurs
Intelligence Community Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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PLANNING COMMITTEE ON CURRENT ISSUES IN COUNTERPROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
MIRIAM E. JOHN, Independent Consultant, Chair
DIANE DIEULIIS, National Defense University
ROBERT C. DYNES, NAS, University of California, San Diego
THOMAS FINGAR, Stanford University
NANCY JO NICHOLAS, Los Alamos National Laboratory
DAVID A. RELMAN, NAM, Stanford University
MALLORY STEWART, Sandia National Laboratories
Staff
NATHANIEL DEBEVOISE, Research Associate, Intelligence Community Studies Board
JENNIFER HEIMBERG, Senior Program Officer, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board
CARYN LESLIE, Senior Program Officer, Intelligence Community Studies Board
LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Director, Forum on Cyber Resilience, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY STUDIES BOARD
JOEL F. BRENNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERT T. CARDILLO, The Cardillo Group, LLC
FREDERICK R. CHANG, NAE, Southern Methodist University, Co-Chair
ROBERT C. DYNES, NAS, University of California, San Diego, Co-Chair
TOMÁS DÍAZ DE LA RUBIA, Purdue University Discovery Park
ROBERT A. FEIN, McLean Hospital/Harvard Medical School
MIRIAM E. JOHN, Independent Consultant
ANITA K. JONES, NAE, University of Virginia
STEVEN I. KOONIN, NAS, New York University
ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates
RICHARD H. LEDGETT, JR., Institute for Defense Analyses
MARK M. LOWENTHAL, Intelligence & Security Academy, LLC
MICHAEL A. MARLETTA, NAS/NAM, University of California, Berkeley
L. ROGER MASON, JR., Peraton
JASON G. MATHENY, Georgetown University
CARMEN L. MIDDLETON, Common Table Consulting
WILLIAM C. OSTENDORFF, United States Naval Academy
ELIZABETH RINDSKOPF PARKER, Retired, State Bar of California
DAVID A. RELMAN, NAM, Stanford University
SAMUEL S. VISNER, The MITRE Corporation
DAVID A. WHELAN, NAE, University of California, San Diego
Staff
ALAN SHAW, Director
JOSEPH CZIKA, Senior Program Officer
TONY FAINBERG, Senior Program Officer
CARYN LESLIE, Senior Program Officer
CHRIS JONES, Senior Finance Business Partner
MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
DIONNA ALI, Associate Program Officer
NATHANIEL DEBEVOISE, Research Associate
ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS
This Proceedings of a Workshop has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that the proceedings meets institutional standards for clarity, objectivity and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
Cherie Chauvin, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,
Diane DiEuliis, National Defense University,
Gerald Epstein, National Defense University, and
Nancy Jo Nicholas, Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the Proceedings of a Workshop before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Steven Bellovin, Columbia University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this proceedings rests entirely with the author(s) and the institution.
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Contents
4 THE INTERNET OF THINGS AND THE DECREASING COST OF MEASUREMENT AND ASSESSMENT
6 MARKET BEHAVIORS, CYBERSECURITY, AND CRIME—FUTURE TRENDS IN BEHAVIOR, TARGETS, AND CAPABILITIES
8 BIOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS—FUTURE VISIONS FOR BIOLOGY, INFORMATION ENCODING, AND DNA DATA ARCHIVE
9 REFLECTIONS ON THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AT SCALE
10 SESSION ON PARTNERSHIP INSIGHTS
11 PLENARY SESSION: REFLECTIONS AND DISCUSSION
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