Summary
The complex, dynamic interactions among natural components of the Earth system—the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere that cycle energy, water, nutrients, and other trace substances—have maintained life on our planet for billions of years. Our understanding of these interactions—and their importance to humanity for providing food, water, and a hospitable climate—has grown substantially over the past few decades. In recent years, however, human technologies and activities, which have expanded economies and consumed resources, have come to rival and even exceed the magnitude of natural processes in driving the behavior of the Earth’s systems. Our understanding has struggled to keep pace with the rapid changes in the Earth’s natural systems, the magnitude of human influences on them, the systems’ impacts on human and ecosystem sustainability and resilience, and the effectiveness of different pathways to address these challenges.
Filling these knowledge gaps is urgent for our nation and the world because decisions made today will shape the future functioning of the planet’s life support systems, affecting food and water security, mitigation and adaptation to climate change and other human-induced stressors, resilience to natural hazards and disasters, and other societal concerns. The National Science Foundation (NSF) is uniquely positioned to strengthen the scientific foundation necessary to explore these issues. It funds curiosity-driven and use-inspired basic research in all natural science, social science, and engineering disciplines relevant to the Earth’s
systems, along with supporting observations, modeling, and data analysis capabilities; education; and workforce development.
At the request of NSF, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established a committee to develop a vision for a robust, integrated approach for studying the Earth’s systems and to identify NSF facilities, infrastructure, coordinating mechanisms, computing, and workforce development to support that vision. The committee’s responses to these tasks are summarized below. Given the breadth and scope of the subject, the report and recommendations take a high-level approach that provides NSF with several options and the leeway to develop a feasible implementation plan.
VISION FOR NEXT GENERATION EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE AT NSF
The committee’s first task was to describe the potential value and key characteristics of a robust, integrated approach for studying the Earth’s systems. An integrated approach is one based on systems thinking, that is, a set of approaches used to understand highly interlinked, complex, and multidisciplinary problems in a comprehensive manner. Which systems thinking approach(es) to use depends on the problem at hand. Relevant approaches for studies of the Earth’s systems include the following:
- systems dynamics, which examines the Earth’s systems as interacting components;
- solutions-oriented science, which defines the boundaries of research problems, capturing important interactions across disciplines to address societal and environmental needs; and
- systems engineering, which concentrates on understanding, designing, and managing systems of interworking components, including humans and human systems, that work together to perform a useful function.
NSF-funded research on the Earth’s systems is managed independently by NSF directorates. Programs across NSF address many aspects of research on the Earth’s systems, including research on atmospheric, ocean, hydrologic, geologic, polar, ecosystem, social, and engineering-related processes. The time is ripe for an integrated approach that will use the knowledge gained from this research to help address many of this century’s most urgent challenges, such as ensuring food, water, and habitat security in a changing climate. The committee’s vision for an integrated approach to studying the Earth’s systems is as follows:
A next generation Earth Systems Science approach that explores interactions among natural and social processes that affect the Earth’s capacity for sustaining life, now and in the future.
NSF’s critical and unique role in next generation Earth Systems Science is as follows:
To innovate, advance, and nurture systems approaches to discover how our planet functions and to inform how society can function as part of the Earth’s systems for the well-being of communities, regions, the nation, and the world.
Next generation Earth Systems Science is aligned with NSF’s dual mission to “promote the progress of science” by advancing fundamental understanding of the Earth’s systems, and “advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare” by building the knowledge foundation vital to tackling Earth systems−related societal problems. The key characteristics of next generation Earth Systems Science at NSF are illustrated in Figure S.1 and summarized below.
Key Characteristics of an Integrated Approach to Studies of the Earth’s Systems
1. Advance both curiosity-driven and use-inspired basic research on the Earth’s systems across spatial, temporal, and social organization scales. Fundamental research provides the foundation for understanding both how the Earth’s systems function and their roles in supporting societies. Both curiosity-driven research and use-inspired basic research are key to unraveling the complex drivers, interactions, and feedbacks within and across the Earth’s systems. A broad interdisciplinary approach is important to grapple with links among nonlinear processes that occur over a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. Use-inspired basic research is also crucial to guide management of societal challenges related to the Earth’s systems, such as projections of water, food, and nutritional insecurity, ecosystem changes, growing fire risk globally, and impacts of pollution. Other examples include responses to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation, and heat or to natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes, and tsunamis.
2. Facilitate convergence of social, natural, computational, and engineering sciences to advance science and inform solutions to Earth systems−related problems. Natural–social relationships are at the heart of many complex problems facing society and the Earth. Identifying and
understanding these multi-directional relationships within and across natural, technological, and social systems in the context of the societal problem at hand involves a robust integrated science. Convergent research provides a means to develop that integrated science by framing research questions from a societal problem perspective; fusing knowledge and approaches from natural, social, computational, and engineering sciences at the outset; and incorporating perspectives of those within and outside of the scientific community.
3. Ensure diverse, inclusive, equitable, and just approaches to Earth Systems Science. Who participates in defining and studying the Earth’s systems influences how well we understand these systems. Incorporating broad perspectives, values, and experiences into all stages of research—including from those who have been historically excluded from Earth Systems Science—and ensuring an inclusive, healthy workplace culture will result in more relevant research questions, more new ideas, more creativity, and more capacity. It will also help ensure that scientific advances yield benefits to all sectors of society.
4. Prioritize engagement and partnerships with diverse stakeholders to benefit society and address Earth systems−related problems at community, state, national, and international scales. Stakeholders play important roles in advancing Earth Systems Science knowledge and using those insights to set policy and make practical decisions. For example, engaging stakeholders such as engineers, resource managers, nongovernmental organizations, and local communities in shaping research questions is essential for developing knowledge that can be put into practice at community and larger scales. Stakeholders may also co-produce knowledge with scientists, generating scientific discoveries and improving data products. Partnerships among government agencies and private companies expand the pool of knowledge, observations, and computational resources that will help advance next generation Earth Systems Science and speed innovation and solutions.
5. Use observational, computational, and modeling capabilities synergistically to accelerate discovery and convergence. The observational, computational, and modeling infrastructure must work collectively to support convergence in Earth Systems Science. Observations and monitoring reveal changes in the Earth’s systems. Data from diverse sources are assimilated into models that represent natural- and social-system processes and their interactions across the Earth’s systems. Computation provides the framework for putting together the complex pieces of Earth Systems Science, supporting data collection and analysis, generating forecasts, and interpreting model results.
6. Educate and support a workforce with the skills and knowledge to effectively identify, conduct, and communicate Earth Systems Science. The current and future workforce in Earth Systems Science must maintain strong disciplinary knowledge and skills, while developing interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary science skills and practices that will help tackle problems at the intersection of natural and human systems. Necessary skills and practices include systems thinking, integration and application
of human dimensions, complex problem solving, computational and analytical skills, spatial and temporal reasoning, communicating to diverse audiences, and the ability to work ethically in diverse teams.
Recommendation 1. NSF should create a sustained next generation Earth Systems Science initiative that both furthers scientific understanding of the Earth’s systems and supports solutions to Earth systems−related problems. An integrated initiative that incorporates the six key characteristics requires sustaining and expanding NSF’s current practices. The objective is to harness existing capabilities and create new approaches by placing increased emphasis on use-inspired and convergence research while maintaining strengths in curiosity-driven Earth Systems Science; enhancing the participation of social, engineering, computational, and data scientists; and strengthening efforts to include diverse perspectives in the research and engage with stakeholders.
OPPORTUNITIES AND BARRIERS TO ESTABLISHING NEXT GENERATION EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE AT NSF
The committee’s second task was to discuss emerging opportunities and barriers to progress for achieving the committee’s vision for an integrated approach for studying the Earth’s systems, including consideration of the interdependencies and synergies among all components. Our ability to deepen understanding of how the planet and societies function and to enable humanity to sustainably manage and adapt to future changes rests on knowledge found within and beyond science. Seeking broad perspectives and integrating a wide range of natural, social, and engineering science disciplines and approaches as well as professional, local, and traditional knowledge would both inform the science and increase its utility in addressing contemporary societal challenges. Creative team formation and research design based on principles of inclusion, open exchange of information, and shared learning are key to maximizing long-term research potential.
NSF could create incentives for researchers to overcome different vocabularies, cultures, methods, professional incentives, and power differentials across diverse fields and stakeholder groups, many of whom have not been viewed as equal experts in Earth Systems Science. Mechanisms could include requests for proposals that necessitate investigators from different disciplines and career stages, and planning grants aimed at building a strong and inclusive team of researchers and stakeholders to define the research problem and develop a strategy to address the problem. Currently, the substantial time and cost of establishing and maintaining relationships with stakeholders is borne by academic institutions,
creating a barrier to early career scientists and institutions without substantial resources. Other NSF mechanisms that would help researchers work together include synthesis centers and research networks aimed at collaboration (e.g., CONVERGE), observing infrastructure and networks that welcome interdisciplinary and convergence studies (e.g., Long-Term Ecological Research program), and computational and modeling centers tackling complex scientific and societal problems (e.g., National Center for Atmospheric Research).
Recommendation 2. NSF should remove barriers to convergence research, including facilitating engagement with stakeholders and building transdisciplinary teams. Convergence research for next generation Earth Systems Science requires new modes of interaction across directorates, between scientists, within research teams, and with stakeholder partners. Transdisciplinary teams and relationships with stakeholders develop over longer time frames than a typical research project and may have to be maintained for many years. Dealing with these realities is key to convergence research, team building, and productive and sustained engagement with stakeholders from individuals to multinational agencies and organizations.
A barrier to inclusive research is the legacy of exclusion in Earth Systems Science fields. Mechanisms that NSF could use to lower this barrier include supporting programs that produce and support diverse graduates in relevant fields (e.g., Minority Serving Institutions), hiring individuals with diverse perspectives in scientific leadership and program management positions, and encouraging their participation in review panels and research teams. Currently some existing systems and structures within NSF are designed to help increase diversity, equity, and inclusion through broadening participation in education and workforce development. Equally important, however, is integration of this ethos into the approaches to Earth Systems Science, such as co-production of knowledge and other forms of participatory knowledge.
Recommendation 3. NSF should integrate diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in all aspects of next generation Earth Systems Science, including the determination of research priorities, evaluation of research activities, and development of the workforce. NSF’s ability to achieve this goal requires innovative approaches in all phases of research projects, including research into how to structure programs that include co-production of knowledge and other forms of participatory knowledge. In addition to the critical need to foster diversity in scientific leadership, management, and the scientific community, NSF can incentivize scientists
to consider diversity of research teams, to support an inclusive culture, and address the implications of their research on different segments of society in the design, implementation, and outreach of research projects.
OBSERVING AND COMPUTATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Synergies to Support Earth Systems Research
The committee’s third task was to identify and recommend ways to leverage potential synergies among current facilities, infrastructure, and coordinating mechanisms for Earth systems research. On a broad scale, such efforts could open up new fields of study or create new user communities. Because many aspects of NSF facilities and infrastructure have been previously addressed in several recent National Academies reports (e.g., NASEM, 2014, 2015, 2020b), the committee instead focused on synergies among observing and computational facilities and infrastructure that are critical for supporting convergence research and advancing next generation Earth Systems Science. These synergies can be sought across fields of study, such as geohazard reduction or ecological processes. The latter are supported by the National Ecological Observatory Network, Long-Term Ecological Research program, Field Stations and Marine Laboratories program, and the Critical-Zone Collaborative Network, among others. Connecting these facilities, along with cyberinfrastructure, could augment regional and continental-scale ecology studies, create new user communities, and help users find relevant data for interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary projects that have an ecological component. NSF’s mid-scale research infrastructure program provides a funding mechanism that could, for example, enable field stations and marine laboratories to deploy advanced instrumentation, computation (e.g., on-site processing), and communication technologies in support of convergence research. Such advances, combined with the strong relationships that field stations and marine laboratories often have with local communities, provide a foundation for deepening and diversifying community connections to co-produce knowledge and advance use-inspired and convergence research to solve problems.
Few facilities have the capacity to offer training and tools that a diverse community with different skill sets can use. Barriers to integration and collaboration include the wide breadth of relevant data, different languages and cultures, different units of analysis, lack of shared norms and practices, insufficient computational and informatics skills, lack of data standards, and an ad hoc and varied approach to data archiving. Mechanisms that could help lower these barriers could include joint programs between NSF cyberinfrastructure and observing facilities (e.g., Center for
Advancement and Synthesis of Open Environmental Data and Sciences) or science divisions (e.g., EarthCube) that provide resources, tools, training, and services for collaborating and working with the data.
Recommendation 4. NSF should promote and support collaboration, instrumentation, cyberinfrastructure, and data-sharing activities among facilities for the production of convergence research for next generation Earth Systems Science. This includes leveraging synergies between cyberinfrastructure and observing facilities, collaborating across science divisions, and working to increase adaptive flexibility as use-inspired research needs evolve.
Computational, Data, and Analytic Support for Earth Systems Research
The committee’s fourth task was to discuss computational, data, and analytic support for Earth systems research, including guidance on harnessing existing, planned, and future NSF-supported cyberinfrastructure. Computing infrastructures, technologies, and system architecture approaches are changing rapidly in ways that will influence the development and evolution of next generation Earth Systems Science. For example, the expansion of custom architectures is forcing re-engineering or redeveloping of codes from scratch. New models of computing such as cloud computing provide an alternative way to access computing resources and to share them with a broad community. In addition, new programming languages and methods for describing computational science workflows are offering new ways to perform computational science. Finally, the increasing complexity of software and the growing desire for more interoperable tools and data necessitate a workforce with research, data analytics, and computer skills. It will be important for many research teams to include research software engineers who build community codes that are easy enough to use to attract, and be accessible to, a broad user base, flexible enough to allow a range of different applications, and adaptable to continuously evolving hardware architectures.
NSF could also commit to providing the necessary computing resources to support next generation Earth Systems Science. Currently, NSF computing resources are oversubscribed, and other science agencies do not have spare computing capacity. Partnerships with other agencies, however, may provide access to different specializations, such as the Department of Energy for exascale computing. It will also be important for NSF to continue to provide access to its high-performance computing resources. A barrier is that such access has been provided through a series of short-lived programs.
Recommendation 5. NSF should provide leadership in the computational revolution by expanding resources (e.g., hardware, software, data analytics, and skilled workforce) and ensuring equal access to them. Earth Systems Science will need to advance with the fast pace of changes in computation and observations. Proactive planning to harness this revolution requires engaging computational and data scientists and research software engineers as critical members of the Earth systems scientific community and ensuring the provision of sufficient computing resources.
WORKFORCE AND TRAINING
The committee’s fifth task was to discuss workforce development to support the personnel vital to advance Earth systems research. NSF plays a major role in developing the research workforce for Earth Systems Science, including improving curriculum and instruction at the undergraduate and graduate levels and providing professional development opportunities for practicing natural, social, computer, and engineering scientists, and educators. It also develops programs to increase the diversity of the workforce, as discussed above.
NSF can promote and support the development of the next generation Earth Systems Science workforce in several ways. For example, NSF-supported summer Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REUs) and CUREs (Course-based Undergraduate Research Experiences) have proven successful in engaging undergraduate students in disciplinary research and preparing them for careers in their field. Problem-oriented REUs that cross disciplinary boundaries would also be an innovative approach to building such skills in a research context. The National Research Traineeship1 offers graduate students an opportunity to develop and implement convergence research while developing the necessary competencies for next generation Earth Systems Science. Problem-based planning grants can help establish and cultivate transdisciplinary teams of diverse skills, approaches, and perspectives (see “Opportunities and Barriers to Establishing Next Generation Earth Systems Science at NSF” above). Adequate support and funding are needed for these programs to be effective, and rigorous evaluation criteria and methods are crucial to guide development and gauge success in training disciplinary, interdisciplinary, and transdisciplinary skills.
Recommendation 6. NSF should promote and support the development of the workforce for next generation Earth Systems Science, including undergraduate and graduate students, scientists, and engineers looking
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1 See https://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=505015.
to engage in convergence research. Mechanisms include sponsoring established and emerging programs that promote the development and evaluation of the necessary skills and competencies. Exposure to convergence research, transdisciplinary teams, and a diversity of perspectives in undergraduate and graduate training would foster the development of the current and future workforce. Research software engineers and system engineers should also be considered a part of the Earth Systems Science workforce (see “Observing and Computational Infrastructure” above).
In summary, NSF has played key roles in Earth Systems Science for several decades. As this research increasingly reveals the implications of human-driven changes in Earth systems for society, NSF has the opportunity to expand and refocus its efforts to achieve greater impact. Next generation Earth Systems Science, based on enhanced participation and collaborations across critical disciplines, can contribute to both improved fundamental understanding of our planet and the ability to guide its future for the benefit of society.
