GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEEDS
AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2022-2031
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
A Consensus Study Report of
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International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26134-0
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26055.
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COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
JERRY M. MELILLO (Chair, NAS), Marine Biological Laboratory
KRISTIE L. EBI (Vice Chair), University of Washington
ARRIETTA CHAKOS, Urban Resilience Strategies
PETER DASZAK (NAM), EcoHealth Alliance
THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University
PHILIP B. DUFFY, Woodwell Climate Research Center
BARUCH FISCHHOFF (NAS, NAM), Carnegie Mellon University
PAUL FLEMING, Microsoft
SHERRI W. GOODMAN, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, CNA
NANCY B. GRIMM (NAS), Arizona State University
HENRY D. JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research
RICHARD H. MOSS, Princeton University
MARGO OGE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ret.)
S. GEORGE H. PHILANDER (NAS), Princeton University
BENJAMIN L. PRESTON, RAND Corporation
PAUL A. SANDIFER, College of Charleston
HENRY G. SCHWARTZ, Jr. (NAE), Jacobs Engineering (ret.)
KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut
BRIAN L. ZUCKERMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses Science and Technology Policy Institute
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
TOBY WARDEN, Director, Board on Environmental Change and Society
JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society
ALEX REICH, Associate Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
MARY GLACKIN (Chair), The Weather Company, an IBM Business
CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Heising-Simons Foundation
CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington
JOHN C. CHIANG, University of California, Berkeley
BRADLEY R. COLMAN, The Climate Corporation
BART E. CROES, California Air Resources Board
ROBERT B. DUNBAR, Stanford University
EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU (NAE), University of California, Irvine
PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists
VANDA GRUBIŠIĆ, National Center for Atmospheric Research
ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
L. RUBY LEUNG (NAE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin-Madison
ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan
DAVID W. TITLEY, U.S. Navy (ret.), Pennsylvania State University
DUANE E. WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director
LAUREN EVERETT, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer
ALEX REICH, Associate Program Officer
RACHEL SILVERN, Associate Program Officer
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Business Partner
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), University of Washington
HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University
LORI M. HUNTER, University of Colorado Boulder
KATHARINE JACOBS, University of Arizona
MICHAEL ANTHONY MÉNDEZ, University of California, Irvine
RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future
ASEEM PRAKASH, University of Washington
MAXINE L. SAVITZ (NAE), Honeywell, Inc. (ret.)
MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University
JALONNE WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC
CATHY WHITLOCK (NAS), Montana State University
ROBYN S. WILSON, The Ohio State University
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
TOBY WARDEN, Director
ADAM JONES, Senior Program Assistant
TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator
MARIA ORIA, Senior Program Officer
JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer
JORDYN WHITE, Program Officer
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Preface
This is a report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee to Advise the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) offering input to USGCRP on the development of its new 10-year strategic plan scheduled to be released in 2022. The report was prepared during “the year of COVID-19,” 2020. As a result of this coincidence in timing, the committee spoke often about several parallels between the pandemic and the threat of climate change: It is global in scale, often hits the disadvantaged hardest, and requires scientifically informed and collective actions to avert the worst consequences. The themes of scale, equity, and science-to-action are woven throughout the report.
Over the past three decades, USGCRP has fostered coordinated research on all aspects of global change, especially climate change. The federal government has also supported U.S. engagement in collaborative international efforts of research, observation, and assessment. These efforts have resulted in impressive advances in understanding and robust modeling of global change and have also provided useful scientific knowledge to decision makers.
As impacts of climate change have become ever more apparent, the focus of USGCRP has evolved from a primary focus on the physical climate system toward the even more challenging focus on complex interactions among the physical climate system, Earth’s ecosystems, and the human systems whose dynamics are governed by human actions. This continuing evolution supports USGCRP’s mandate of assisting “the nation and the world to understand, assess, predict and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.” A new USGCRP strategic plan that puts user needs at the forefront would entrain a broader and more diverse set of stakeholders and incentivize integrated research.
The Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program is the body within the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine responsible for advising USGCRP. We are indebted to the staff at the National Academies who provided guidance, input, and support throughout the writing of the report, particularly Amanda Purcell, whose dedication and scientific understanding were critical throughout, and to Drs. Amanda Staudt and Toby Warden, whose deep technical knowledge and insights into the National Academies and USGCRP processes helped ensure an appropriately targeted report.
Finally, we dedicate this report to our late colleague, Dr. Anthony (Tony) Janetos, who chaired the Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program from April 2017, until his passing too soon in August 2019. Over more than three decades, Tony wrote and spoke widely on the need to understand the scientific, economic, and policy linkages among the major global environmental issues and played an important role in shaping the public dialogue on climate change. We cherish the memory of Tony’s thoughtfulness, his generosity of spirit, his insights, his humor, and his assuring smile.
Jerry M. Melillo, Chair
Kristie L. Ebi, Vice Chair
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Acknowledgments
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University
PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists
ISAAC M. HELD (NAS), Princeton University
JOHN P. HOLDREN (NAS, NAE), Harvard University
JEANINE A. JONES, California Department of Water Resources
THOMAS R. KARL, Climate and Weather, LLC
ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University
MAUREEN LICHTVELD (NAM), University of Pittsburgh
FRIEDERIKE OTTO, University of Oxford
VARUN RAI, University of Texas-Austin
ROD SCHOONOVER, Ecological Futures
AMY K. SNOVER, University of Washington
JALONNE L. WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC
KYLE WHYTE, University of Michigan
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Katherine H. Freeman (NAS), Pennsylvania State University, and Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
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Contents
The Role of USGCRP in Preparing the Nation to Meet These Challenges
A New Framework to Approach the Next USGCRP Strategic Plan
2 Global Change Risks to Human Systems
Population Health and Health Systems
Transportation and Infrastructure
National and International Security
Implications of a Risk Framing of Research
3 Integrated Systems-Based Research
Evolving USGCRP Priorities Toward an Integrated Systems-Based Approach
Human System and Human-Natural System Science to Support Decision Making
Designing and Implementing Integrated Systems-Based Research
4 Research on Approaches Critical to Managing Climate Risk
Reducing Risk by Global Emissions Reduction
Solar Geoengineering Approaches
A Need for Integrated Research on Risk-Management Approaches
5 Crosscutting Research and Data Priorities