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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEEDS
AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2022-2031

Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Board on Environmental Change and Society

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Division on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Consensus Study Report of

images

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26134-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26134-1
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26055.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
×

Image

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
×

Image

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
×

COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

JERRY M. MELILLO (Chair, NAS), Marine Biological Laboratory

KRISTIE L. EBI (Vice Chair), University of Washington

ARRIETTA CHAKOS, Urban Resilience Strategies

PETER DASZAK (NAM), EcoHealth Alliance

THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University

PHILIP B. DUFFY, Woodwell Climate Research Center

BARUCH FISCHHOFF (NAS, NAM), Carnegie Mellon University

PAUL FLEMING, Microsoft

SHERRI W. GOODMAN, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, CNA

NANCY B. GRIMM (NAS), Arizona State University

HENRY D. JACOBY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research

RICHARD H. MOSS, Princeton University

MARGO OGE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ret.)

S. GEORGE H. PHILANDER (NAS), Princeton University

BENJAMIN L. PRESTON, RAND Corporation

PAUL A. SANDIFER, College of Charleston

HENRY G. SCHWARTZ, Jr. (NAE), Jacobs Engineering (ret.)

KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut

BRIAN L. ZUCKERMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses Science and Technology Policy Institute

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

TOBY WARDEN, Director, Board on Environmental Change and Society

JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society

ALEX REICH, Associate Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

MARY GLACKIN (Chair), The Weather Company, an IBM Business

CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Heising-Simons Foundation

CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington

JOHN C. CHIANG, University of California, Berkeley

BRADLEY R. COLMAN, The Climate Corporation

BART E. CROES, California Air Resources Board

ROBERT B. DUNBAR, Stanford University

EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU (NAE), University of California, Irvine

PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists

VANDA GRUBIŠIĆ, National Center for Atmospheric Research

ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

L. RUBY LEUNG (NAE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin-Madison

ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan

DAVID W. TITLEY, U.S. Navy (ret.), Pennsylvania State University

DUANE E. WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director

LAUREN EVERETT, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer

ALEX REICH, Associate Program Officer

RACHEL SILVERN, Associate Program Officer

SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Business Partner

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
×

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY

KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), University of Washington

HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University

LORI M. HUNTER, University of Colorado Boulder

KATHARINE JACOBS, University of Arizona

MICHAEL ANTHONY MÉNDEZ, University of California, Irvine

RICHARD G. NEWELL, Resources for the Future

ASEEM PRAKASH, University of Washington

MAXINE L. SAVITZ (NAE), Honeywell, Inc. (ret.)

MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University

JALONNE WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC

CATHY WHITLOCK (NAS), Montana State University

ROBYN S. WILSON, The Ohio State University

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

TOBY WARDEN, Director

ADAM JONES, Senior Program Assistant

TINA M. LATIMER, Program Coordinator

MARIA ORIA, Senior Program Officer

JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer

JORDYN WHITE, Program Officer

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Preface

This is a report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee to Advise the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) offering input to USGCRP on the development of its new 10-year strategic plan scheduled to be released in 2022. The report was prepared during “the year of COVID-19,” 2020. As a result of this coincidence in timing, the committee spoke often about several parallels between the pandemic and the threat of climate change: It is global in scale, often hits the disadvantaged hardest, and requires scientifically informed and collective actions to avert the worst consequences. The themes of scale, equity, and science-to-action are woven throughout the report.

Over the past three decades, USGCRP has fostered coordinated research on all aspects of global change, especially climate change. The federal government has also supported U.S. engagement in collaborative international efforts of research, observation, and assessment. These efforts have resulted in impressive advances in understanding and robust modeling of global change and have also provided useful scientific knowledge to decision makers.

As impacts of climate change have become ever more apparent, the focus of USGCRP has evolved from a primary focus on the physical climate system toward the even more challenging focus on complex interactions among the physical climate system, Earth’s ecosystems, and the human systems whose dynamics are governed by human actions. This continuing evolution supports USGCRP’s mandate of assisting “the nation and the world to understand, assess, predict and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.” A new USGCRP strategic plan that puts user needs at the forefront would entrain a broader and more diverse set of stakeholders and incentivize integrated research.

The Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program is the body within the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine responsible for advising USGCRP. We are indebted to the staff at the National Academies who provided guidance, input, and support throughout the writing of the report, particularly Amanda Purcell, whose dedication and scientific understanding were critical throughout, and to Drs. Amanda Staudt and Toby Warden, whose deep technical knowledge and insights into the National Academies and USGCRP processes helped ensure an appropriately targeted report.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Finally, we dedicate this report to our late colleague, Dr. Anthony (Tony) Janetos, who chaired the Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program from April 2017, until his passing too soon in August 2019. Over more than three decades, Tony wrote and spoke widely on the need to understand the scientific, economic, and policy linkages among the major global environmental issues and played an important role in shaping the public dialogue on climate change. We cherish the memory of Tony’s thoughtfulness, his generosity of spirit, his insights, his humor, and his assuring smile.

Jerry M. Melillo, Chair
Kristie L. Ebi, Vice Chair
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Acknowledgments

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

HALLIE C. EAKIN, Arizona State University

PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists

ISAAC M. HELD (NAS), Princeton University

JOHN P. HOLDREN (NAS, NAE), Harvard University

JEANINE A. JONES, California Department of Water Resources

THOMAS R. KARL, Climate and Weather, LLC

ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University

MAUREEN LICHTVELD (NAM), University of Pittsburgh

FRIEDERIKE OTTO, University of Oxford

VARUN RAI, University of Texas-Austin

ROD SCHOONOVER, Ecological Futures

AMY K. SNOVER, University of Washington

JALONNE L. WHITE-NEWSOME, Empowering a Green Environment and Economy, LLC

KYLE WHYTE, University of Michigan

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Katherine H. Freeman (NAS), Pennsylvania State University, and Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26055.
×
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