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X I I I WORLD DAYS AND COMMUNICATIONS PROGRAM IGY World Warning Agency, F o r e c a s t Summary Board
WORLD DAYS AND COMMUNICATIONS PROGRAM Page A. Summary of Technical Panel on World Days and Communications 535 B. Summary of Panel Actions 536 C. Project Objectives and Results 537 13.1 Operation of AGIWARN and U.S. Regional Warning Centers 538 534
X I I I . WORLD DAYS AND COMMUNICATIONS A. Summary of Technical Panel on World Days and Communications 1. Establishment of the Panel. L e t t e r s were w r i t t e n i n 1955 i n v i t i n g s c i e n t i s t s to become members of the Technical Panel. Other panels appointed l i a i s o n representatives and the Department of Defense also appointed l i a i s o n members from the services. A num- ber of communication s p e c i a l i s t s were requested to serve as consultants. The panel make-up was as follows: 2. Composition of the Panel. ( A f f i l i a t i o n a t time of appointment.) a. Panel Members A.H. Shapley, Chairman J.W. Evans A.B. Meinel M.G. Morgan H.E. Newell, J r . Central Radio Propagation Lab., NBS Sacramento Peak Observatory U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago Dartmouth College Naval Research Laboratory b. Li a i s o n from Other Panels A.M. Peterson, Aurora & Airglow R.J. Slutz, Ionospheric Physics R.C. Ve t t e r , Oceanography Stanford U n i v e r s i t y CRPL O f f i c e o f Naval Research Consultants and POD Liai s o n Carl A l i z i o S.J. Barbagallo H.H. Beverage I r a Boyle R.A. Mattmueller J.F. M i l l e r R.C. Moore A.F. Muir S.E. Toye A.H. Waite, J r . Geophysics Research D i r e c t o r a t e , AFCRL U.S. Weather Bureau Radio Corporation of America U.S. Weather Bureau C i v i l Aeronautics A d m i n i s t r a t i o n U.S. Navy AGIWARN U.S. Army Signal Corps Geophysics Research D i r e c t o r a t e , AFCRL U.S. Army Signal Corps d. Secr e t a r i a t (IGY S t a f f ) W.M. Smith ( t o 1956) Stanley Ruttenberg ( 1956 to 1964) 3. Panel Meetings. Three meetings of the panel were held. F i r s t Meeting Second Meeting Third Meeting August 18, 1955 June 11, 1956 December 1, 1956 Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. 535
WORLD DAYS AND COMMUNICATIONS B. Summary of Panel Actions 1. I n t e r n a t i o n a l Special World Days Program. The Chairman o f the Panel, A.H. Shapley, who was also the CSAGI Reporter f o r World Days and Communications, asked the Panel to give thought e s p e c i a l l y to the problem of the special world days, SWT, to be c a l l e d upon decision t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t geomagnetic disturbance would commence w i t h i n 24 hours. The CSAGI had designated a National Bureau of Standards f i e l d s t a t i o n (the North A t l a n - t i c Radio Warning Service, l o c a t i o n a t Fort B e l v o i r , V i r g i n i a ) as the World Warning Agency (AGIWARN). Da i l y messages would be Issued by AGIWARN, w i t h advice from s i m i l a r organizations m other c o u n t r i e s , as to whether or not there was t o be an a l e r t or SWI declared or terminated (see P r o j e c t 13.1 f o r d e t a i l e d discussion). These messages would go, v i a some i n t e r n a t i o n a l communication system, to other regional warning centers f o r dissemination to a l l appropriate IGY st a t i o n s i n the respective regions. AGIWARN was also the regional warning center f o r the western hemisphere. The i n t e r n a t i o n a l and regional dissemination o f messages required considerable organization as t o communica- t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . 2. Dissemination of Messages. The Chairman explained to the Panel t h a t arrangements had been made through the WMO to u t i l i z e the i n t e r n a t i o n a l meteorological networks f o r the short d a i l y AGIWARN messages. Regional messages would be d i s t r i b u t e d i n the U.S. v i a U.S. Weather Bureau systems and relayed from USWB sta t i o n s by phone, or i n a few cases, TWX, to u n i v e r s i t y or other IGY st a t i o n s r e q u i r i n g such information. 3. Special Communication Problems. The Panel discussed several types of special communication requirements, such as f o r the a n t a r c t i c s t a t i o n s , special rocket or cosmic-ray balloon experiments, and the s a t e l l i t e program. Through the Navy (Task Force 43) representative i t was learned t h a t standard r a d i o - t e l e t y p e f a c i l i t i e s were planned f o r McMurdo Sound, the c e n t r a l communication p o i n t i n A n t a r c t i c a . The possi- b i l i t y of u t i l i z i n g s c a t t e r c i r c u i t s was discussed; a f t e r some i n v e s t i g a t i o n , the Navy decided t h a t too much prime power would be required, although i t was pointed out by the Chairman th a t a f a r lower power l e v e l than o r i g i n a l l y contemplated would s t i l l provide about 90% r e l i a b i l i t y . (A pre l i m i n a r y engineering survey was contracted f o r by the USNC and recommendations were made to the Navy and other government agencies, but the s c a t t e r proposal was u l t i m a t e l y rejected.) Representatives from various agencies discussed communications t o Fort Chur- c h i l l , Canada, i n connection w i t h supplying current solar information t h a t would be required f o r the t i m i n g of c e r t a i n rocket launchings. I t was decided t h a t m i l i t a r y channels would i n a l l p r o b a b i l i t y handle a l l communication requirements, p a r t i c u l a r l y through the cooperation of Canadian agencies. AGIWARN was asked to supply c e r t a i n solar and r e l a t e d information d i r e c t l y to some cosmic-ray groups so t h a t balloons could be launched a t times of solar d i s t u r - bances or sudden cosmic-ray events. Special rocket f i r i n g s a t times o f f l a r e s were also planned, a t launching f a c i l i t i e s i n C a l i f o r n i a . I t turned out to be more work- able, f o r some of these special requirements, f o r b i l a t e r a l arrangements between those r e q u i r i n g such information and various solar observatories. The s a t e l l i t e communication requirements, e s p e c i a l l y w i t h regard to t r a c k i n g information i n the e a r l y and l a s t stages o f o r b i t , were described f o r the Panel. These requirements could not have been met by the AGIWARN communication system or other e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s ; f o r the s a t e l l i t e program, t h e r e f o r e , s p e c i f i c communi- ca t i o n services were planned. 536
WORLD DAYS AND COMMUNICATIONS 4. Communication F a c i l i t i e s a t U.S. Stations. The Panel suggested t h a t a question- n a i r e be sent to U.S. s t a t i o n s so tha t e x i s t i n g communication f a c i l i t i e s and p o t e n t i a l requirements could be assessed. The information thus c o l l e c t e d was turned over t o a communications expert to a s s i s t AGIWARN i n planning i t s work. 5. IGY Manual on World Days and Communications. The CSAGI r e p o r t e r , assisted by AGIWARN, NBS, and NAS personnel, prepared several d r a f t s of the manual, which was reviewed by the Panel and in t e r e s t e d p a r t i e s i n the U.S. The f i n a l version of the manual was published i n the "Annals of the IGY," Part I of Volume V I I . C. Proje c t Objectives and Results 1. Summary of Program. During the IGY, regular schedules were arranged to achieve simultaneous observations i n most d i s c i p l i n e s , i n connection w i t h synoptic objectives throughout the world. During some periods, however, an i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n i n the obser- v a t i o n a l program was considered desirable and f o r t h i s reason the World Days program was established. There were three classes o f special days or periods during which special experiments or i n t e n s i f i e d observations were undertaken. For two of these classes. Regular World Days (RWD) and World Meteorological I n t e r v a l s (WMI), days were selected i n advance; a calendar of these periods was published. The t h i r d class. Special World I n t e r v a l s (SWI) were designated on a day-to-day basis by the World Warning Agency (AGIWARN), depending on forecasts of solar a c t i v i t y and ensuing t e r r e s - t r i a l e f f e c t s . 2. P r o j e c t . The one p r o j e c t (Number 13.1) established f o r t h i s program provided f o r the operation of the IGY World Warning Agency (AGIWARN) and f o r the regional warning centers a t Fort B e l v o i r , V i r g i n i a and Anchorage, Alaska. This p r o j e c t i s described i n the f o l l o w i n g pages. 537
WORLD DAYS AND COMMUNICATIONS Project 13.1 - Operation of AGIWARN and U.S. Regional Warning Centers 1. Objectives. This p r o j e c t o f the Central Radio Propagation Laboratory, NBS, Boulder, Colorado, provided f o r the operation of the IGY World Warning Agency (AGIWARN), located a t the NBS North A t l a n t i c Radio Warning Service a t F o r t B e l v o l r , V i r g i n i a , and f o r r e - gional centers a t Fort B e l v o i r and Anchorage, Alaska (NBS North P a c i f i c Radio Warning Service), a l l under the supervision of NBS-Boulder. The r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f the World Warning Agency was to receive advice from other f o r e c a s t i n g centers, based on d a l l y telegraphic interchange of outstanding solar and geophysical phenomena, make the d a i l y AGIWARN decision, and n o t i f y a l l regional warning centers o f " A l e r t s " and "Special World I n t e r v a l s " warnings. Communications also Included s a t e l l i t e launching announce- ments, regular p r e d i c t i o n s of the o r b i t s of U.S.-launched s a t e l l i t e s , observations by U.S. or U.S.-associated s t a t i o n s o f USSR-launched s a t e l l i t e s , and r e l a y i n g of USSR forecasts to western hemisphere IGY Committees. The r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of the U.S. and Western Hemisphere Regional Warning Centers was to d i s t r i b u t e AGIWARN Alert/SWI messages through the regional channels. The program also had the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o issue IGY and IGC Geophysical Calendars as w e l l as Calendar records f o r those periods. 2. Operations. Dally advisory messages were received from s i m i l a r f o r e c a s t i n g ser- vices i n other countries and d a i l y information was gathered on the occurrence o f major solar f l a r e s , solar radio emissions of a type e m p i r i c a l l y found to be r e l a t e d to solar events t h a t usually produce t e r r e s t r i a l e f f e c t s , geomagnetic disturbances and other such phenomena upon which t o base the d a i l y Alert/SWI decision. The philosophy of the IGY special world i n t e r v a l (SWI) program i s discussed i n d e t a i l i n the "Annals of the IGY," Vol. V I I , Part I , pp. 1-132 (Pergamon Press, 1959). I n b r i e f , i t was decided not to t r y to a n t i c i p a t e every s o l a r - t e r r e s t r i a l coupled event but to t r y to p r e d i c t only the large events o r , during periods o f lesser a c t i v i t y , t o spread out the SWT's somewhat uniformly, perhaps two a month as an average goal. The a l e r t s were c a l l e d whenever solar conditions seemed, on the basis of experience, l i k e l y to develop i n t o conditions favorable to produce a s i g n i - f i c a n t geomagnetic storm. Whenever conditions developed t o such a p o i n t t h a t an im- portant geomagnetic storm seemed imminent (or i n f a c t when such an event had j u s t occurred) an SWI was declared. During a l e r t s and SWI, the frequency of most observa- t i o n s i n the upper atmosphere d i s c i p l i n e s was stepped up and some a d d i t i o n a l special observations were taken. A l e r t s were sometimes allowed t o run f o r several days dur- ing periods of sustained solar a c t i v i t y but SWT's were usually terminated i n a shorter time e s p e c i a l l y i f the a n t i c i p a t e d event f a i l e d to m a t e r i a l i z e . The d a i l y AGIWARN decisions, of which there were only a few types (e.g., no a l e r t , a l e r t begins, a l e r t continues, a l e r t terminates, SWI begins, SWI continues, SWI terminates, SWI terminated but a l e r t continues) were made a t 1600 U.T., and put i n t o the meteorological nets f o r d i s t r i b u t i o n ; the decisions were also supplied to the NBS time and frequency r a d i o s t a t i o n s and WWV and WWVH f o r encoding and broad- casting i n a simple code. Messages f o r U.S. st a t i o n s were routed through U.S. Weather Bureau t e l e t y p e networks, from which they were d i s t r i b u t e d , through the cooperation of the Weather Bureau, to appropriate IGY st a t i o n s nearby. Some U.S. st a t i o n s r e - ceived the message by d i r e c t TWX, telegraph or telephone means. AGIWARN and NBS personnel also helped compile the IGY d r a f t manual on World Days and Communications, e s p e c i a l l y the address l i s t i n g s and the various codes f o r exchanging solar and geophysical data between the various f o r e c a s t i n g centers, and assisted the CSAGI Reporter (A.H. Shapley) f o r World Days and Communications i n com- p i l i n g information f o r the IGY Calendar Records, which w i l l summarize the important geophysical events. A series o f c i r c u l a r memoranda were issued announcing changes i n program, a v a i l a b i l i t y of data, and containing information of other operational i n t e r e s t . 538
WORLD DAYS AND COMMUNICATIONS 3. Personnel. A.H. Shapley, CRPL, Boulder, was p r o j e c t d i r e c t o r . E. Wiewara was s t a t i o n c h i e f o f the NARWS, Fort B e l v o i r , V i r g i n i a ; R.C. Moore was d i r e c t o r o f AGIWARN, James Weldon was Chief Forecaster, AGIWARN, and J. V i r g i n i a L i n c o l n , CRPL Boulder and M.E. Nason, d i r e c t o r . Associate Regional Warning Center a t NPRWS Anchorage, Alaska were associated w i t h the p r o j e c t . 4. Results. Forty periods of A l e r t during the IGY and 29 SWI were declared by AGI- WARN. The SWI periods covered 47 days. Sixteen of these were followed by 18 geomag- n e t i c disturbances (two of the I n t e r v a l s were followed by second storms). Only four SWI t o t a l l i n g seven days were not followed by disturbances and one I n t e r v a l of one- day duration was i n i t i a t e d a f t e r the storm had s t a r t e d . F i f t y - f i v e geomagnetic disturbances were recorded, but only f i f t e e n of these pro- duced an A-index f o r i t s most severe 24-hour period greater than 50. Eight o f these f i f t e e n storms were preceded by I n t e r v a l s . One storm began during a successful I n t e r - v a l and another disturbance was missed i n September 1957 i n t e n t i o n a l l y since several severe storms already had been predicted successfully. Only f i v e major disturbances, t h e r e f o r e , were missed completely; one o f these was the most severe storm observed during IGY. I n s i x of the eighteen months ( J u l y , November 1957, J u l y , August, October and December, 1958), Special World I n t e r v a l s preceded the most severe disturbance observed during the month. The most severe storm i n September 1957 began during a previously successful I n t e r v a l . I n three months (August 1957, March and June 1958) I n t e r v a l s caught the second most severe disturbance. No storms were recorded i n January and November o f 1958, and only one minor storm was observed i n October and December 1957 and A p r i l 1958. The Alert/SWI system was modified f o r 1959 and AGIWARN continued to f u n c t i o n , as i t i s s t i l l doing under the new I n t e r n a t i o n a l URSIGRAM and World Days Service. I n t e r n a t i o n a l Geophysical Calendars were issued f o r the IGY, IGC, and 1960. Selected solar and geophysical data were prepared f o r each day f o r the IGY Calendar Record and f o r a s i m i l a r Calendar Record f o r the IGC period. 5. Bibliography. A.H. Shapley: "IGY Calendar Record," Ann, of the IGY , Vol. 26, Part I , 1962, Pergamon Press. A.H. Shapley: "The Day-to-Day Coordination of IGY Observations," Proc. IRE. Vol. 47, No. 2, February 1959, pp. 323-27. A.H. Shapley: "World Days and Communications," Ann, of the IGY. Vol. V I I , Part I , Pergamon Press, 1959. M.E. Nason: "Evaluation of the Special World I n t e r v a l Program During the IGY." J. Geophys. Res.. Vol. 66, Oct. 1961, pp. 3597-3598. A.H. Shapley, J.V. Linc o l n : "IGC Calendar Record," Ann, o f the IGY. Vol. XVI, Part I I I , 1963. 539
