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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Summary

In response to a request from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—and with the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF)—the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine appointed the ad hoc Committee for the Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure Workshop and conducted a two-part virtual workshop, “Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure,” on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020. The overall goals of the workshop were to review present space weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities, to consider future observational infrastructure and research needs, and to consider options toward the further development of an effective, resilient, and achievable national space weather program. Specifically, workshop participants were asked to

  • Review current and planned U.S. and international space weather-related observational capabilities;
  • Discuss baseline space weather observational needs;
  • Identify programmatic and technological options to ensure continuity of the baseline, giving particular attention to options to extend the Space Weather Follow On program; and
  • Consider options for technology, instrument, and mission development to support in situ and remote sensing space weather observations from either ground- or space-based vantage points, the latter including L-1, L-5, L-4, GEO [geostationary orbit], and LEO [low Earth orbit].1

The workshop took a Sun-Earth systems view of space weather and space climate, with a purview covering issues from their drivers in the solar environs and interplanetary medium, to the interconnected magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system of Earth. Given the broadening perspective for robotic and human space exploration, some workshop presentations also touched on Moon and Mars mission applications.

Workshop participants included agency representatives and other policy makers, space weather professionals, and a broad swath of technological system developers and users whose activities are affected

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1 L1, L5, and L4 refer to Lagrange points 1, 5, and 4 (https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/resources/754/what-is-a-lagrange-point); GEO is an acronym for geostationary orbit and LEO is an acronym for low Earth orbit.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

by space weather. In total, some 200+ individuals participated in the workshop sessions.2 This proceedings summarizes presentations and discussions at both the June and September workshop sessions.3

Society’s increasing vulnerability to space weather, and the need for improved predictions and forecasts of its impacts, have been recognized in numerous previous reports. For example, the 2007 National Academies report Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts4 noted that “A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event5 would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions” because of the many interconnections between the local space environment consequences and society’s highly coupled systems (e.g., Figure S.1).

Image
FIGURE S.1 Connections and interdependencies across the economy. This diagram illustrates the high level of integration of the various sectors in the society and points to their vulnerability; for example, during (extended) power outages. NOTE: Some connections are not shown. SOURCE: Daniel Baker, presentation to the workshop, figure courtesy of Sandia National Laboratory in Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, 2008, Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures, http://www.firstempcommission.org/uploads/1/1/9/5/119571849/emp_comm._rpt._crit._nat._infrastructures.pdf.

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2 Presentations and posters from the workshop are available at https://www.nationalacademies.org/spacewxphaseI-presentations.

3 In keeping with the internal guidelines of the National Academies, this proceedings does not include National Academies-approved consensus findings or recommendations. Similarly, the views expressed in this proceedings should not be interpreted as representative of the entirety of workshop participants, the workshop organizing committee, or the National Academies. Rather, they provide a sampling, and sometimes a synthesis, of perspectives expressed in the included areas of expertise.

4 National Research Council, 2008, Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/12507.

5 The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859. A storm of similar magnitude that missed Earth occurred on July 23, 2012. See D.N. Baker, X. Li, A. Pulkkinen, C. Ngwira, M.L. Mays, A.B. Galvin, and K.D.C. Simunac, 2013, “A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios,” Space Weather 11: 585–591, https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20097.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

The 2013-2022 solar and space physics decadal survey6 both described current understanding of the physical phenomena that determine space weather, and provided guidance on what constitutes the essential operational space weather observing system. It also suggested how the federal government might enhance the effectiveness of the multiagency National Space Weather Program.

The roles and responsibilities of agencies participating in the federal programs for space weather have since been clarified with the establishment of the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Subcommittee under the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) within the Executive Office of the President Office of Science and Technology Policy (EOP-OSTP), and the development of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW-SAP). These have notably improved coordination among federal agencies, commercial entities, and academic institutions engaged in space weather operational services and related research efforts. The initial sessions of the workshop featured presentations on the cooperative and individual endeavors that culminated in the SWORM and NSW-SAP.

Agency leaders from NOAA, NASA, and NSF then described both their existing programs relevant to space weather operations and infrastructure and highlighted the new research to operations-operations to research (R2O2R) partnership whose objective is to improve exchanges between operational forecasting and research. NASA and commercial spaceflight companies are moreover poised to embark on human exploration missions outside geospace. For the astronauts, and the equipment and systems they rely on, a space weather observation and forecast capability is essential—including the confident establishment of “all-clear” conditions.

The workshop also included participants and officials from space weather agencies in Europe, Japan, and Canada. As in the United States, there is increasing attention to space weather worldwide with additional resources being devoted to ground- and space-based observations, as well as model development. As described in the full proceedings below, the United States is partnering with foreign space agencies in several efforts. The presentations included reviews of the operational tools, practices, and observing facilities that form the backbone of today’s space weather infrastructure.

Scientific platforms that have been a mainstay of space weather observations to date, particularly since the 1990s, include solar observatories (space and ground-based) and in situ measurements of the solar wind measured upstream from Earth, in addition to various suites of spacecraft in Earth orbit, and facilities on the ground, making geospace environment measurements. Particular concern was expressed regarding observing capabilities that have been lost, or that soon will be lost without action in light of the increasing uses of space and demands for information affecting system planning, design, and operations.

Space weather observations are needed not just for extreme events, but for situational awareness to help manage the risks and impacts of day-to-day fluctuations in the space environment. Positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) applications, power grid management, and many other aspects of societal infrastructure rely on continued delivery of space weather observations and forecasts. It was stated in a number of workshop sessions that continued support of space environment research and model development, and a reliable path for translation to operational tools, are needed to ensure that appropriate capability continues to keep up with future needs. The evolving interagency R2O2R program marks the beginning of such an enterprise, yet to be evaluated for its effectiveness and growth potential.

The focus of the workshop then turned to key observing and knowledge gaps and the potential, over the next 5 to 10 years, for a more affordable and robust space weather observing architecture and related modeling activity. For example, global measurements of solar magnetic field behavior, multiperspective coronal imaging, and measurements of the geospace environment at high latitudes and in LEO could have transformative effects on space weather knowledge and forecasting.

In the area of observing architecture, specific actions that would ensure a successful transition to next generation capabilities were discussed. For example, it was emphasized that a strategy for maintaining continuous solar wind, magnetic field, and particle measurements at L1 is essential. At the same time, there is also need for spacecraft at more distributed vantage points around the Sun, including L5 to improve

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6 National Research Council, 2013, Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/13060.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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forecasting lead-time, L4 to monitor active regions that pose an immediate threat of producing disruptive and hazardous solar particle events, and, in the long term, observations at high solar inclinations to monitor the solar polar magnetic fields that affect forecast models. Each of these vantage points contributes to better predictions of the probability and timing of coronal mass ejection (CME) effects at Earth, the primary sources of space environment extremes.

Measurements within geospace of the energetic particle environment, which poses a threat to spacecraft, astronauts, and commercial aviation, is an ongoing requirement for improved design of technological systems, spacecraft anomaly resolution, and forecast models. LEO is a particularly data-sparse domain that could use better coverage because it is becoming increasingly populated with commercial and research spacecraft. Along with energetic particle measurements, it was noted that commercial data buys may provide distributed measurements of neutral atmosphere variability needed to improve models essential to space traffic management. Commercial entities may also be motivated to make observations of use to NOAA and the public for space weather purposes.

Spacecraft and space-based instruments alone are not sufficient for a robust space weather architecture. As was noted, a network of ground-based systems, including solar observatories (optical and radio), magnetometers, neutron monitors, and ionospheric monitors, also contribute crucial input to space weather situational awareness. These networks provide data crucial for monitoring space weather impacts, for validating and calibrating in situ satellite measurements, and for providing input to forecast and nowcast space weather models.7 New applications of more rigorous analysis and data-mining of merged satellite and ground-based observations are emerging. These essential ground-based networks require sustained support for operations and for further developments, such as real-time data availability to enable improvements in space domain awareness, space and ground operations, and anomaly resolution.

The emerging, diverse, and evolving commercial capability, and its potential use in all aspects of future space architectures, was highlighted in several workshop sessions. Representatives of commercial enterprises expressed their readiness to acquire fundamental data and to ensure its continued availability, creating opportunities to convert observations and model output to the focused and tailored products required by society today.

The workshop was tasked to look a decade or more in the future, a recognition of the long acquisition cycle for space systems and the need for continuity of critical space weather observations.8 With this directive, coupled with the understanding that observations have value only when placed in the context embodied in models, forecasts, and impact assessments, two themes emerged from the discussions: The first was the recognition that funding for model development and the framework for model implementation in space weather forecasting is often fragile, with only short-term funding available.9 The second centered on the impact of new and more affordable launch options and new space platforms and technologies, which are being developed at a rate far faster than was common for legacy systems.

A core operational system would be maintained in perpetuity, while many more innovative and flexible smaller components could come and go as needed. The system vision that emerged from the collective workshop perspective was one of operational agency (NOAA) leadership, with cooperative elements from science agencies (NASA, NSF) and a wealth of new tools being developed and brought to the table by commercial and academic contributors. Small satellites, agile sensors, big data management and utilization,

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7 In this report, “forecasting” and “prediction” are often used interchangeably when referring to future events while a “nowcast” is effectively a short-term forecast of current conditions. Note that the term “prediction,” unlike “forecast,” can refer to estimates of past conditions; for example, from an analysis of historical data.

8 In particular, NOAA is considering options to continue the solar wind measurements and imagery of coronal mass ejections that are to be provided by instruments on the SWFO-L1 satellite, currently planned for launch in February 2025 as a rideshare with NASA’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission.

9 This fragility of funding was an overarching issue for participants who spoke about future space weather architectures and development and transitioning of research models to operations. It was noted in particular in the session on ground-based space weather architectures where the significant need for long-term funding for ground-based instruments, model development, and transition support was emphasized.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

artificial intelligence and machine learning, increasingly realistic numerical simulations, and other emerging capabilities offer significant potential.

Workshop participants also highlighted the importance of the 2020 Promoting Research and Observations of Space Weather to Improve the Forecasting of Tomorrow (PROSWIFT) Act, the terms of which were largely known by the time of the September workshop sessions (the Act was signed into law by the President on October 21, 2020). The act, the culmination of efforts begun in 2016, directs government agencies, including NOAA, NASA, NSF, Department of Defense, and the Department of the Interior, to undertake, in coordination, the roles and activities described in the NSW-SAP. It also promotes collaboration among federal agencies, academia, and the private sector toward enhancing space weather research and the transitioning of its results to operations.10

The grand challenge for space weather services is to forecast conditions in Earth’s space environment with skill, reliability, and timeliness—toward achieving the capability associated with terrestrial weather services. A frequently expressed view at the workshop was that meeting this challenge will require the cooperation and coordination of the government, academic, and private sectors as envisioned in the 2019 National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan and codified in the 2020 PROSWIFT Act.

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10 “This bill sets forth provisions concerning improving the ability of the United States to forecast space weather events and mitigate the effects of space weather.

  • The bill provides statutory authority for the National Science and Technology Council’s Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Working Group, which coordinates executive branch efforts regarding space weather.
  • The bill directs the Office of Science and Technology Policy, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Science Foundation, Air Force, Navy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and U.S. Geological Survey to carry out specified space weather activities.
  • NOAA may establish a pilot program under which NOAA offers to enter into contracts with entities in the commercial space weather sector to provide NOAA with space weather data that meets certain standards.
  • The working group must periodically review and update the benchmarks described in the report of the National Science and Technology Council titled Space Weather Phase 1 Benchmarks and dated June 2018, as necessary, based on (1) any significant new data or advances in scientific understanding that become available, or (2) the evolving needs of entities impacted by space weather phenomena.”

See S.881-PROSWIFT Act, 116th Congress (2019-2020), https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/881.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Page 1
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 3
Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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In response to a request from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - and with the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation - the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted a two-part virtual workshop, "Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure," on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020. The overall goals of the workshop were to review present space weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities, to consider future observational infrastructure and research needs, and to consider options toward the further development of an effective, resilient, and achievable national space weather program. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

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