2

National Priorities and the Development of a National Strategy for Space Weather

Speakers at June 16-17, 2020, workshop sessions were asked to review key milestones in the development of the current national space weather program—especially the interagency task force on Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) and the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW-SAP)—and speakers at both the June 16-17 and September 9-11 sessions were asked to comment on how national priorities in areas that range from human exploration of space to protection of the electrical grid space weather are reflected in national policy for space weather. This chapter draws on the presentations and discussions throughout the workshop,¹ especially from the following:

• Tamara Dickinson, Science Matters Consulting, LLC, session chair
• John Allen, Program Executive for Crew Health and Safety, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), “Human Exploration, Moon/Mars”
• Adam Balkcum, Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), “EMP R&D Priorities”
• Mike Bonadonna, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, “SWORM”
• Steve Clarke, Former Deputy Associate Administrator for Exploration, NASA Science Mission Directorate, “Space Weather in NASA’s Exploration Campaign”
• W. Craig Fugate, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (Former Administrator), “Emergency Manager’s Perspective”²
• Mark Lauby, Senior Vice President and Chief Engineer, North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), “Mitigating the Effects of Geomagnetic Storms on the Nation’s Bulk Power System”
• Joe McClelland, Director, Office of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), “Power Grid, Reliability Standards”
• William Murtagh, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), “National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan”

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¹ Links to the presentations can be found at https://www.nationalacademies.org/spacewx-phaseI-presentations.

² Mr. Fugate spoke without the use of slides; therefore, his presentation is not on the workshop’s website.

• Jeff O’Neil, Legislative Director, Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO), “Pending Space Weather Legislation”
• Kevin O’Connell, Director, Office of Space Commerce, Department of Commerce (DOC), “Space Traffic Management and Space Situational Awareness”
• Jim Spann, Space Weather Lead, Heliophysics Division, NASA HQ, “Space Weather Strategy”
• Elsayed Talaat, Director, Office of Projects, Planning, and Analysis, NOAA National Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), “NOAA’s Current and Future Space Weather Architecture”
• David Turner, Acting Director, Office of Space and Advanced Technology, U.S. State Department, “Collaboration on Space Weather”
• Louis Uccellini, NOAA, National Weather Service, “SWORM”
• Mike Wiltberger, Geospace Head, National Science Foundation (NSF), “NSF Support for Space Weather Operations & Research Infrastructure”

The first federal interagency body responsible for addressing the needs of space weather information for the United States was the National Space Weather Program (NSWP). Established in 1995, the NSWP focused on advancing space weather research, enhancing space weather operational services, increasing public awareness, and supporting national policy formulation. During this time, FEMA played a key role in elevating space weather in the national and homeland security sectors by recognizing that individual components of the federal government lacked a cohesive national strategy necessary to ready the nation for an extreme space weather storm.³ Existing response models focused on specific sectors or geographically bounded areas where impacts are greatest. However, for a national or global event such as a pandemic, cyberattack, or extreme space weather, the United States faces much greater challenges. In response, space weather was elevated among government leaders and policy makers, with Congress directing the White House OSTP to improve national preparedness for space weather events and to coordinate federal space weather efforts.⁴

In 2013, the FERC released Order No. 779, “Reliability Standards for Geomagnetic Disturbances,”⁵ acknowledging that geomagnetic storms can cause a collapse of the bulk-power system and potentially damage bulk-power system transformers. The FERC order required owners and operators of the bulk-power system to develop and implement operational procedures to mitigate the effects of geomagnetic storms. Then, in 2014, in response to growing concerns over the range of potential space weather impacts, OSTP established the SWORM task force, bringing together over 30 departments and agencies to develop a National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and the National Space Weather Action Plan (NSWAP). The SWORM, which superseded the NSWP, was the first interagency body to unite the national and homeland-security enterprise with the science and technology enterprise. Workshop speakers provided a look “under the hood” of what occurred as a result of this transformation in the image of space weather, and in the value of studying it and tracking it as a national service.

In November 2014, the SWORM task force was established by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), by its Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction of the Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability (see Figure 2.1).⁶ The SWORM charter directed the task force to develop a

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³ National Research Council, 2008, Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

⁴ Section 809 of the 2010 NASA Authorization Act: P.L. 111-267, https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ267/PLAW-111publ267.pdf.

⁵ Order No. 779, Reliability Standards for Geomagnetic Disturbances, 143 FERC ¶ 61,147 (2013), https://www.nerc.com/pa/Stand/Project201303GeomagneticDisturbanceMitigation/GMD_directivesMap_Oct172013.pdf.

⁶ National Science and Technology Council, 2015, National Space Weather Strategy, Federal Register, April 30, https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2015/04/30/2015-10113/national-science-and-technology-councilnational-space-weather-strategy.

NSWS that would articulate high-level strategic goals for enhancing U.S. preparedness to space weather events. Released in October 2015, the NSWS and the activities defined in the NSWAP were developed by the SWORM task force, with inputs from stakeholders outside the federal government. Briefly stated, these plans define how the federal government will work to enhance national preparedness for space weather-related events.⁷ The White House also released two executive orders (EOs; 13744 in 2016 and 13865 in 2019) to address risks associated with space weather.

The NSWS identified six national goals (see Box 2.1) and established the guiding principles that underpin U.S. efforts to secure the infrastructures vital to the national security and economy of the United States. The strategy was informed by a recognition of gaps in U.S. capacity to understand, model, predict, respond to, and recover from space-weather events, described by subsequent speakers in the later sessions. The strategy and action plan leveraged existing policies and ongoing space weather research and development efforts while promoting enhanced domestic and international coordination and cooperation across public and private sectors. It identified specific initiatives to drive both near- and long-term national protection priorities. It also provided protocols for preparing and responding to space-weather events and for ensuring that information is available to inform decision-making.

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⁷ The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and the 2015 National Space Weather Action Plan also called for the Department of Commerce to support research into the social and economic impacts of space-weather effects. This led to the Abt Associates September 2017 report, Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather in the United States, https://www.weather.gov/media/news/SpaceWeatherEconomicImpactsReportOct-2017.pdf.

The NSWAP outlined the federal implementation approach for the NSWS. It detailed the activities, outcomes, and timelines that, if undertaken by federal departments and agencies, would lead to progress toward the strategy’s goals. Each action indicated the lead federal executive department or agency but did not prescribe a specific approach. The implementation of the NSWS required the action of a nationwide network of governments, agencies, emergency managers, academia, the media, the insurance industry, nonprofit organizations, and the private sector. The underlying idea was that strong public-private partnerships to enhance observing networks, conduct research, develop prediction models, and supply the services necessary to protect life and property and to promote economic prosperity will serve as the backbone of a space-weather-ready nation.

Together, the NSWS and NSWAP are intended to facilitate the integration of space weather considerations into planning and decision making at all levels, ensuring that the United States is prepared for and resilient to future events. The SWORM task force expected to refresh the strategy and action plan every 3 years as needed, following up on this plan in 2019.

In October 2016, the White House released EO 13744, “Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events.” The EO recognized the potential for space weather to simultaneously affect and disrupt health and safety across entire continents, requiring an all-of-nation response across governments and the private sector, and it recognized that the government needs to have the capability to predict and detect a space weather event. The EO defines agency roles and responsibilities and directs agencies to take specific actions to prepare the nation for the hazardous effects of space weather. Specific to observations, it directed the Department of Defense (DoD), DOC, NASA, and the National Science Foundation (NSF), in collaboration with other agencies, to, “identify mechanisms for advancing space weather observations, models, and predictions, and for sustaining and transitioning appropriate capabilities from research to operations and operations to research, collaborating with industry and academia to the extent possible.” The Order recognizes that these efforts will enhance national preparedness and speed the creation of a space-weather-ready Nation.

Space Policy Directive-1, “Reinvigorating America’s Human Space Exploration Program,”⁸ issued on December 11, 2017, called for the NASA administrator to “lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities.” NASA’s response—the Artemis program to return to the Moon and prepare for a human mission to Mars—and its connections to space weather are discussed later in this proceedings.

On March 26, 2019, during a meeting of the National Space Council meeting in Huntsville, Alabama, the White House released an update to the 2015 strategy and action plans. With a renewed focus on space policy and national security, the 2019 National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW-SAP; also identified as the NSWSAP)⁹ combined the separate original documents to focus on the following three main objectives: (1) enhancing the protection of national security, homeland security, and commercial assets and operations; (2) developing and disseminating accurate and timely space weather characterization and forecasts; and (3) establishing procedures for responding to and recovering from space weather events.

Several actions in the NSW-SAP focus on observations of the Sun-Earth system and recognize these measurements as the indispensable foundation for timely and accurate characterization and forecasts of the space environment. While the importance of sustaining baseline observation capabilities was highlighted, the NSW-SAP also called for the development of new technologies and new innovative approaches to achieve these measurements. Further, it is stated that, “Achieving the objectives in this Strategy and Action Plan will require coordination and collaboration within and across the federal government, as well as engagement with the commercial sector, academia, and like‐minded nations.”

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⁸ “Reinvigorating America’s Human Space Exploration Program,” Federal Register, December 14, 2017, https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/12/14/2017-27160/reinvigorating-americas-human-spaceexploration-program.

⁹ National Science and Technology Council, 2019, National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan, Washington, DC, March, https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=823433.

On March 26, 2019, the President also signed EO 13865, “Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses,”¹⁰ which recognized the potential for space weather to disrupt elements critical to U.S. security and economic prosperity and adversely affect global commerce and stability. This EO differed from the 2016 EO in that it also addressed adversarial electromagnetic pulses (EMPs)—also referred to as high-altitude EMPs (HEMPs)—which is caused by a nuclear device detonated above the surface of Earth. A geomagnetic storm disturbance waveform is similar to that of the last portion of the HEMP waveform (known as the late-time, E3 HEMP, waveform); both of these disturbances interact and affect power grid systems in similar ways.¹¹

The order directs DOC and DoD to provide timely operational space weather observations and forecasts to support the nation’s need to protect against, respond to, and recover from the effects of an EMP. The EO also directed an assessment of research and development (R&D) needs of agencies conducting preparedness activities for EMPs and to identify gaps in available technologies and opportunities for future technological developments to inform R&D activities. In response, OSTP released the report Research and Development Needs for Improving Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses.¹²

In alignment with Presidential Policy Directive (PPD)-8 on National Preparedness and PPD-21 on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience, FEMA released the national Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) in July 2019.¹³ The THIRA assesses the effects of the most catastrophic threats and hazards to the nation and identifies just two natural hazards with the potential to have impacts nationwide: pandemic and space weather. Also in 2019, in response to EO 13744, FEMA released “Federal Operating Concept for Impending Space Weather Events”¹⁴ to inform federal departments and agencies on actions to take for an impending space weather event. It focuses on the operational and crisis planning functions, reporting structure, and reporting requirements of departments and agencies in response to notification of a forecasted space weather event.

Soon after the release of the NSW-SAP in October 2019, Congress began a bipartisan effort to develop legislation that would codify many of the elements in the NSW-SAP. The efforts over the following 5 years culminated in October 2020 with the passage of the Promoting Research and Observations of Space Weather to Improve the Forecasting of Tomorrow (PROSWIFT) Act. The act identifies roles and responsibilities for federal agencies, ensures an interagency government body to implement actions, and directs the development of formal mechanisms for the transition of research to operations. It also establishes a Space Weather Advisory Group for the federal government to receive advice from the academic community, the commercial space weather sector, and space weather end users. The act encourages collaboration among U.S. agencies; partnerships across academia, industry, and government; and engagement with international partners.¹⁵

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¹⁰ “Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses,” Federal Register, March 29, 2019, https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/03/29/2019-06325/coordinating-national-resilience-toelectromagnetic-pulses.

¹¹ U.S. Department of Energy, 2017, Electromagnetic Pulse Resilience Action Plan, https://www.energy.gov/oe/downloads/doe-electromagnetic-pulse-resilience-action-plan.

¹² National Science and Technology Council, 2020, Research and Development Needs for Improving Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses: A Report by the Electromagnetic Pulse Research and Development Assessment Interagency Working Group Subcommittee on Resilience, Science and Technology Committee on Homeland and National Security, June, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Research-DevelopmentNeeds-For-Improving-Resilience-to-Electromagnetic-Pulses-June-2020.pdf.

¹³ Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2019, 2019 National Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA): Overview and Methodology, https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/fema_nationalthira-overview-methodology_2019_0.pdf.

¹⁴ Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2020, Federal Operating Concept for Impending Space Weather Events, https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/fema_incident-annex_space-weather.pdf.

¹⁵ Section 2a, “Space Weather/Policy,” of the Act states that, “It shall be the policy of the United States to prepare and protect against the social and economic impacts of space weather phenomena by supporting actions to

The PROSWIFT Act recognizes that space- and ground-based observations provide data necessary to understand, forecast, and prepare for space weather phenomena, and are essential for the success of human and robotic space exploration. It calls for the director of OSTP to lead the development of an integrated strategy for coordinated observations of space weather across federal departments and agencies. It also directs the sustainment of a baseline capability for space weather observations and directs efforts to obtain enhanced space weather observations beyond the baseline capabilities to advance space weather forecasting. It also acknowledges the potential to leverage the commercial sector and utilize partnerships across, including international partnerships, and hosted payloads are also recognized. However, the release of PROSWIFT Act was accompanied by a signing statement from the President noting its limitations.¹⁶

2013 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS DECADAL SURVEY AND THE 2020 MIDTERM ASSESSMENT REPORT

The 2013 National Academies decadal survey report, Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society,¹⁷ identified scientific goals that defined the directions for solar and space physics research (“heliophysics” research) for the decade 2013 through 2022, including priorities for NASA missions and for research programs sponsored by NASA and NSF. It also addressed key roles and partnerships between these agencies and NOAA, DoD, and the Department of Energy toward achieving the primary goals.

The 2013 decadal survey noted that multiple agencies of the federal government have vital interests related to space weather and that efforts to coordinate these agencies’ activities were seen in the NSWP. Nonetheless, the decadal survey committee concluded that additional approaches¹⁸ were needed to develop

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improve space weather forecasts and predictions including: sustaining and enhancing critical observations, identifying research needs and promoting opportunities for research-to-operations and operations-to-research collaborations both within and outside of the Federal Government, advancing space weather models, engaging with all sectors of the space weather community, including academia, the commercial sector, and international partners, and understanding the needs of space weather end users.”

¹⁶ “The Act, however, does not address the resilience of national security assets or critical infrastructure to the effects of space weather. Without ensuring the resilience of these assets, the United States will remain vulnerable to the effects of space weather, regardless of how accurate forecasting becomes. I look forward to working with the Congress to improve the resilience of national security assets and critical infrastructure to space weather.” Signing Statement from President Trump on S. 881,” Mirage News, October 22, 2020, https://www.miragenews.com/signing-statement-from-president-trump-on-s-881/.

¹⁷ National Research Council, 2013, Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/13060.

¹⁸Chapter 7 of the decadal survey report presented the committee’s vision for a renewed national commitment to a comprehensive program in space weather and climatology. The committee made the following multipart recommendation as part of this vision:

A1.0 Recharter the National Space Weather Program

As part of a plan to develop and coordinate a comprehensive program in space weather and climatology, the survey committee recommends that the National Space Weather Program be rechartered under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council. With the active participation of the Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget, the program should build on current agency efforts, leverage the new capabilities and knowledge that will arise from implementation of the programs recommended in this report, and develop additional capabilities, on the ground and in space, that are specifically tailored to space weather monitoring and prediction.

A2.0 Work in a multiagency partnership to achieve continuity of solar and solar wind observations.

The survey committee recommends that NASA, NOAA, and the Department of Defense work in partnership to plan for continuity of solar and solar wind observations beyond the lifetimes of ACE, SOHO, STEREO, and SDO. In particular:

the capabilities outlined in a 2010 National Space Policy document and envisioned in the 2010 NSWP.¹⁹

The 2013 decadal survey recently underwent a “midterm assessment” by an ad hoc study committee of the National Academies. Included in the midterm assessment report²⁰ were findings relevant to agency roles in fulfilling the goals of the NSW-SAP. These include a number of explicit references to the various roles for NASA, NOAA, and NSF; they also describe new developments where cooperative programs have arisen to address elements of the NSW-SAP. An overall message conveyed in the midterm report is that NOAA, as a primary conduit for space weather information, has been building fruitful partnerships with NASA and NSF that have the potential to transform space environment services through cooperative developments in observing and research-based modeling.

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A2.1 Solar wind measurements from L1 should be continued, because they are essential for space weather operations and research.

The DSCOVR L1 monitor and IMAP STP mission are recommended for the near term, but plans should be made to ensure that measurements from L1 continue uninterrupted into the future.

A2.2 Space-based coronagraph and solar magnetic field measurements should likewise be continued.

Further, the survey committee concluded that a national, multifaceted program of both observations and modeling is needed to transition research into operations more effectively by fully leveraging expertise from different agencies, universities, and industry and by avoiding duplication of effort. This effort should include determining the operationally optimal set of observations and modeling tools and how best to effect that transition. With these objectives in mind:

A2.3 The space weather community should evaluate new observations, platforms, and locations that have the potential to provide improved space weather services. In addition, the utility of employing newly emerging information dissemination systems for space weather alerts should be assessed.

A2.4 NOAA should establish a space weather research program to effectively transition research to operations.

A2.5 Distinct funding lines for basic space physics research and for space weather specification and forecasting should be developed and maintained.
Implementation of a program to advance space weather and climatology will require funding well above what the survey committee assumes will be available to support its research-related recommendations to NASA (see Table S.1). The committee emphasizes that implementation of an initiative in space weather and climatology should proceed only if it does not impinge on the development and timely execution of the recommended research program.

¹⁹National Space Policy of the United States of America, June 28, 2010, https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=22716. The National Space Weather Program. Strategic Plan, FCM-P30-2010, Silver Spring, Md.: Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcmp30.htm.

²⁰ National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2020, Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/25668.