National Academies Press: OpenBook
« Previous: 4 Complementary and Collaborative International Activities
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

5

Space Weather User Community Needs

The speakers shown below addressed space weather impacts as well as the role of the private sector in providing and managing the infrastructure needed to mitigate deleterious space weather effects.1 A theme that emerged from these presentations and participant discussions is U.S. dependence on government, academic, and private-sector assets working in harmony to be prepared for space weather events now and in the future.

  • Conrad Lautenbacher, CEO, GeoOptics, Session Chair
  • Mark Olson, North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), “Electric Power Industry”
  • Steve Jolly, Commercial Civil Space, Lockheed Martin Space Systems, “Satellite Operations”
  • Mike Stills, Past Director, Flight Dispatch (Network Operations) United Airlines, “Commercial Aviation”
  • Eddie Semones, Space Radiation Analysis Group, NASA Johnson Space Center, “Human Exploration”
  • Mark MacAlester, Department of Homeland Security, “Space Weather Effects on Communications”
  • Joe McClelland, Director, Office of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), “Power Grid, Reliability Standards”2
  • Susan Skone, Professor, University of Calgary, Canada, “PNT-Reliant Industries”
  • Bob McCoy, Director, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, “Arctic Space Weather Impacts”
  • Nicole Kinsman, Alaska Regional Advisor, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Geodetic Survey, “Relevance of Space Weather Prediction to Applied Positioning Activities”

User needs for space weather information reflect the broad range of space weather impacts. A longstanding concern is the potential impact—both short- and long-term—of space weather on electrical grids, which form the backbone of a modern society. A more recent concern is the impact of space weather

___________________

1 Links to the presentations can be found at https://www.nationalacademies.org/spacewx-phaseI-presentations.

2 Mr. McClelland spoke without the use of slides; therefore, his presentation is not on the workshop’s website.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

on the increasing numbers of Earth-orbiting satellites and space domain awareness—the new name for space situational awareness.3

Worldwide commercial aviation, which has grown significantly over the past several decades, is dependent on continuous ground- and space-based communications to ensure safety of flight. Avoiding exposure to hazardous radiation levels generated by solar storms is also a primary concern, particularly for airlines operating polar routes.

As noted by many speakers, the expansion of a human presence in space, especially for extended missions and/or exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO), will require improvements in understanding and prediction of the radiation environment.4 Already, the International Space Station (ISS) receives daily updates of current and predicted space weather; the planned exploration of the Moon, and potentially of Mars, will require continued improvement in forecasting and protecting against the potentially higher levels of solar radiation.

Back on Earth, the Department of Homeland Security and the emergency response community are dependent on local and worldwide communications that can be interrupted by space weather effects on the ionosphere. In addition, space weather–induced irregularities in electron density in the ionosphere are a major source of error in precise time transfer using Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. For a society increasingly reliant on GPS for position, navigation, and timing (PNT) information, there is an accompanying need to support research that will improve understanding of the space weather effects that affect PNT. This need is of growing importance as new capabilities, such as GNSS smart phones with 30 cm localization, and the Internet of Things (IoT), are developed.5

Below is a summary, based on workshop discussions at both the June and September sessions, that highlights some of the information needs of key users of space weather information.

POWER INDUSTRY

FERC is an independent agency that regulates the interstate transmission of natural gas, oil, and electricity. FERC is responsible for protecting the reliability of the high-voltage interstate transmission system through mandatory reliability standards. FERC also participates, as a member of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Working Group. FERC oversees NERC in the United States, as do provincial governments in Canada.

NERC is a not-for-profit organization with the mission to ensure the reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the power grid.6 NERC has as its area of responsibility (AOR) the United States, Canada, and northern Baja California in Mexico. In general, space weather information is used, along with other information, to plan, assess, and mitigate risks to the bulk power system.

___________________

3 This report will use SSA as that is how it was referenced during the workshop. Regarding the new term of SDA: Introduced by the newly created U.S. Air Force Space Command, SDA is defined as “the identification, characterization and understanding of any factor, passive or active, associated with the space domain that could affect space operations and thereby impact the security, safety, economy or environment of our nation.” John E. Shaw, Maj Gen, USAF, Space Domain Awareness (SDA) [Memorandum], Peterson AFB, CO: Air Force Space Command, October 4, 2019.

4 J. Chancellor, G. Scott, and J. Sutton, 2014, “Space Radiation: The Number One Risk to Astronaut Health beyond Low Earth Orbit,” Life (Basel, Switzerland) 4: 491-510, doi: 10.3390/life4030491.

5 These issues were recognized in the 2019 Federal Radionavigation Plan. See U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2020, “Nav Pubs and Documents General Library,” https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=pubsMain; also Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and Department of Transportation, 2019 Federal Radionavigation Plan, 22161DOT-VNTSC-OST-R-15-01, Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/43623/dot_43623_DS1.pdf.

6 Mark Olson, “Space Weather Information and Electric Reliability,” presentation to the workshop, June 16, 2020, and Mark Lauby, “Geomagnetic Disturbances Reducing Risk to the North American Electric Grid,” presentation to the workshop, September 9, 2020.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Image
FIGURE 5.1 National Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) conclusions from the 2012 Task Force Report. SOURCE: Mark Lauby, NERC, “Geomagnetic Disturbances Reducing Risk to the North American Electric Grid,” presentation to the workshop, September 9, 2020.

Geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs), the result of space weather, cause geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) to flow in long engineered conductor systems such as power grids, pipelines, and railway systems.7 Severe GMDs—a low-frequency, high-impact natural hazard—can result in GICs that have the potential to cause major disruptions in high-voltage power transmissions systems, including system blackouts. The most well-known recent example is the March 13, 1989, event, which led to a short-term blackout of the electrical system in Quebec, Canada.8 This event highlighted the need for GMD risk mitigation.9Figure 5.1 summarizes NERC conclusions regarding the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the bulk power system. Box 5.1, based on the presentations by Mark Lauby and Mark Olson, describes the scope of FERC and NERC activities in more detail.

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’s (SWPC’s) “Alerts, Watches and Warnings” for GMDs are used, along with other indicators, to provide system operators with situational awareness and to trigger operator actions. For example, SWPC’s initial watch (issued up to 3 days in advance of GMD impacts) prompts operators to prepare for power system contingencies and to posture the electric system for resilience.10 Preparations may include notification to field personnel for onsite monitoring, assessment of black start (service restoration) capabilities, and readying the system and equipment for potential GIC impacts. Decisions can also be made regarding the equipment that should be in service and whether any plans for maintenance should be delayed.

___________________

7 A. Pulkkinen, E. Bernabeu, A. Thomson, A. Viljanen, R. Pirjola, D. Boteler, J. Eichner, et al., 2017, “Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Science, Engineering, and Applications Readiness,” Space Weather 15(7): 828–856, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016sw001501.

8 D.H. Boteler, 2019, “A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm,” Space Weather 17(10): 1427–1441, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019sw002278.

9 See North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), 2019, 2019 ERO Reliability Risk Priorities Report, November, https://www.nerc.com/comm/RISC, and the NERC, 2012, Special Reliability Assessment Interim Report: Effects of Geomagnetic Disturbances on the Bulk Power System, February, https://www.eenews.net/assets/2012/02/29/document_pm_01.pdf.

10 A resilient system is usually thought of as one able to withstand low-probability, high-impact threats.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

SWPC warnings, issued up to 30 minutes before GMD event onset, prompt additional operator actions, including monitoring of system voltage and reactive power resources in critical areas, starting of offline generation, further restricting system maintenance, and limiting electricity supply transfers out of areas where supply constraints are being observed or are anticipated. Alerts indicate that the GMD event has started and observed GMD conditions have crossed a preset threshold.

SWPC has developed a new near-real-time geoelectric field mapping capability that provides improved situational awareness to system operators. Completion of the U.S. magnetotelluric survey is needed to

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Image
FIGURE 5.2 Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite operations. SOURCE: Steve Jolly, Lockheed Martin Space Systems, “Satellite Operations,” presentation to the workshop, June 16, 2020.

expand the coverage of this geoelectric field map to the entire contiguous United States. Survey results are also being used by electric industry planners to inform GMD vulnerability assessments.

The Electric Power Research Institute is concluding a 2-year research program that has brought together the elements of the system from Earth conductivity maps, and geoelectric field evaluation to the analysis of the elements in the power grid (e.g., transformers). The electric industry applies this research to make GMD vulnerability assessments as accurate and complete as possible.

SPACECRAFT DESIGN AND MISSION OPERATIONS

Space weather is the main source of uncertainty in the position of all objects in LEO below about 1,000 km. The main impact is strong variation in the neutral density of the thermosphere as it responds to radiative inputs from the Sun in the extreme ultraviolet wavelength range, energetic particle precipitation in the high-latitude auroral zones, and global‐scale electrical currents generated during geomagnetic storms.11

Managing the rapidly increasing number of satellites on orbit and the need for improved forecasts of space weather and understanding of its impacts on satellite operations and space traffic management was a subject at both the June and September workshop sessions.12

As shown in Figure 5.2, satellite operations are already being impacted by the large number of objects in LEO. The point of closest approach of two objects is called a conjunction and the process performed for mitigating the risk of an operational satellite colliding with a cataloged object is known as a conjunction

___________________

11 Per remarks from workshop participants Berger, Sutton, and Thayer as reported in T.E. Berger, M.J. Holzinger, E.K. Sutton, and J.P. Thayer, 2020, “Flying Through Uncertainty,” Space Weather 18(1), https://doi.org/10.1029/2019sw002373.

12 See Steve Jolly, Lockheed Martin Space Systems, “Satellite Operations,” presentation to the workshop, June 16, 2020; Ted Muelhaupt, The Aerospace Corporation, “The Impact of Space Weather on Space Traffic Management in the NewSpace Era,” presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

(assessment risk) analysis.13 Participants at the workshop were informed that the increasing number of objects is leading to an excessive number of conjunction (collision) warnings. Some operators are receiving 10 warnings a day. Addressing the warnings and determining if avoidance maneuvers are necessary is an increasing burden for satellite system operators, especially for smaller operators with limited resources.

SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT AND SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

In June 2018, the White House released Space Policy Directive 3 (SPD-3), National Space Traffic Management Policy. SPD-3 recognizes that space is becoming increasingly congested and contested, presenting challenges for the safety, stability, and sustainability of U.S. space operations, including the ISS. SPD-3 identifies emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, debris removal, in-space manufacturing, space tourism, and new technologies enabling small satellites and very large constellations of satellites. Current government policies and processes do not adequately address these new activities.

There are currently over 2,000 operational satellites in orbit; however, three American companies alone have applied for licenses to launch a combined 57,000+ satellites over the next decade.14 In addition, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office indicates there are more than 23,000 pieces of orbital debris larger than 10 cm in diameter, and approximately 500,000 particles between 1 and 10 cm. Maintaining a safe space environment is paramount to U.S. security and economic vitality. The global space economy is approximately $400 billion, with about 80 percent commercial activity, almost half attributable to the United States.

Timely and actionable space traffic management (STM) and space situational awareness (SSA) data and services are essential for safe and efficient space activities. SPD-3 indicated that a civil agency should be the focal point for the execution of duties associated with STM and SSA, and designated the Department of Commerce (DOC) as that civil agency. Within DOC, the Office of Space Commerce (OSC) was selected as the agency responsible for developing and implementing DOC’s efforts to support STM and SSA. In 2020, Congress called for the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) to assess which federal department or agency is best suited for responsibility for space traffic management. On July 20, 2020, NAPA released the Report on Space Traffic Management.15 The NAPA report recommended that the DOC/OSC lead collaborative federal efforts to improve the safety and sustainability of the space domain.

The NAPA report described SSA as the characterization of the entire near-Earth space environment including space object location and physical characteristics, and the natural space environment as characterized by space weather data, analysis, and forecasts. The largest uncertainty in determining orbits for satellites operating in LEO is atmospheric drag, which can vary significantly during space weather storms. Electrostatic discharge and single event effects associated with space weather events are also a concern for satellite operators.

As described at the workshop, the OSC is moving forward in establishing capabilities for private industry and international SSA notifications. SPD-3 directs DOC to develop a modern, open architecture data repository (OADR) as the place from which to ultimately provide conjunction notifications. The OSC will soon launch the OADR leveraging cloud-computing resources already available within NOAA. Data from NOAA/SWPC and from NASA’s database of micro-meteorites will be the first data sets available in the OADR. These data will be key input to ensure timely, precise conjunction analysis and notification to private sector and international users. According to workshop participants, OSC is actively engaged with international allies and finding great interest—spurred in part by their private-sector companies—in

___________________

13 National Research Council, 2011, Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/13244.

14 J. Morin, 2019, “Four Steps to Global Management of Space Traffic,” Comment, Nature 567: 25.

15 National Academy of Public Administration, 2020, Report on Space Traffic Management, August, http://napawash.org.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

bringing civil capabilities to bear on emerging issues in SSA and STR; these allies also support use of an open architecture.

In summary, presentations and discussions at the workshop indicated that the connection between space weather and SSA is critically important, and that working together with the private sector is essential to ensure that the necessary measurements are available to support the fast-developing global needs for satellite-based products and services.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Insights regarding civil aviation interests were provided by Mike Stills;16 a summary follows.

Federal regulations require authorization of commercial flights which place requirements on the dispatcher and the pilot. The dispatcher and pilot have to be familiar with the weather forecast/conditions along the flight route, and must have two-way communication over the entire route, a particular issue for transpolar flights. The current operational scheme relies on radio frequency (HF and VHF) communications, to be enhanced in the future by a space-based communications network, FANS (Future Air Navigation System).

Airlines have a regulatory basis for looking at space weather in addition to other aspects of weather. In November 2018, the International Civil Aviation Organization selected SWPC as one of the three global space weather centers (SWXCs) to monitor and provide advisory information on space weather phenomena expected to affect high-frequency radio communications, communications via satellite, GNSS-based navigation and surveillance systems, and/or pose a radiation risk to aircraft occupants.17

The SWXCs are required to disseminate advisory information to a variety of users regarding the extent, severity, and duration of the space weather. The key parameters generally relevant include any changes in solar conditions that impact the radio frequency communications environment, in particular, ionospheric D-region absorption. For polar routes, auroral absorption is important. This imposes a need to be able to forecast conditions on timescales sufficient to plan routes. Current indices used in planning include the planetary K index as well as GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) monitoring of X rays and energetic particle events.

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) associated with a space weather event may create a cascade of other high-energy particles and secondary particles that can have significant health effects to airline crew and passengers, especially when flying over polar routes (Figure 5.3). In response to warnings, pilots may fly at lower altitudes where the higher atmospheric density reduces the threat from ionizing radiation, or even divert in their planned routing to avoid higher-latitude regions where exposure risk is higher. Both steps increase flight costs.

___________________

16 Mike Stills, past director, Flight Dispatch (Network Operations) United Airlines, “Commercial Aviation,” presentation to the workshop, June 16, 2020.

17 The other International Civil Aviation Organization-designated space weather providers are the Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space Weather User Services (PECASUS: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, and the United Kingdom; see http://pecasus.eu/) and the consortium of Australia, Canada, France, and Japan (ACFJ, see https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u59/05%20David%20Boteler%20Official.pdf).

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Image
FIGURE 5.3 Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) may create a cascade of other high-energy particles and secondary particles that can have significant health effects to airline crew and passengers. SOURCE: Lika Guhathakurta, 2020, “Next Generation Ionizing Radiation Characterization from Aviation Altitude to Deep Space,” presentation at Heliophysics Summer School, July 17, https://cpaess.ucar.edu/heliophysics/summerschool/2020-schedule.

Extreme space weather events fall into a category of natural hazards that have potentially high impact, but occur with low probability. However, while the most recent extreme event (actually events) dates to the “Halloween storms” of 2003,18 significant SEP events that disrupted radio communications over the polar cap occurred in January 2005 and during the last solar activity maximum in 2012-2014. An issue noted at the workshop was how aviation training and operations can maintain an awareness of the potential for a significant space weather impact even during times of low solar activity. In addition, it was noted that the impact of space weather and, in particular, the radiation environment via SEP events on air crew and passengers, will grow as the number of transpolar routes increases.

___________________

18 N. Gopalswamy, L. Barbieri, E.W. Cliver, G. Lu, S.P. Plunkett, and R.M. Skoug, 2021, “Introduction to Violent Sun‐Earth Connection Events of October–November 2003,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 110(A9). A potentially very-high-impact space weather event that missed Earth occurred in 2012; see D.N. Baker, X. Li, A. Pulkkinen, C.M. Ngwira, M.L. Mays, A.B. Galvin, and K.D.C. Simunac, 2013, “A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios,” Space Weather 11: 585–591, doi: 10.1002/swe.20097.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT

In December 2017, the White House released SPD-1, Reinvigorating America’s Human Space Exploration Program. SPD-1 calls for a U.S.-led, integrated program with private sector partners for a human return to the Moon, followed by missions to Mars and beyond. In response, NASA committed to landing U.S. astronauts, including the first woman and the next man, on the Moon by 2024. Through collaboration with commercial and international partners, NASA’s Artemis program19 calls for investigation of the lunar surface in previously unexplored regions, starting with the lunar South Pole. The return of human spaceflight to destinations outside the protection of Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field introduces new challenges for NASA. Enhanced capabilities for the characterization and forecasting of the space radiation environment will be vital to protect astronauts during these missions.

Human exploration places additional constraints on space weather both in terms of the timeliness of the prediction and the ability to extrapolate to conditions at a location removed from that of the sensors themselves.20 Human operations and exploration of the Moon and Mars present significant challenges. The ISS environment is, by comparison, fairly well understood, with regular, predictable hazards (e.g., South Atlantic Anomaly and the polar region). In LEO, SEPs are a polar region phenomenon. Threats beyond LEO include GCRs as well as SEPs.

Requirements differ for different mission types. For example, the goal is to design around radiation standard models for a range of events. Timescales for predictions vary depending on the mission—lunar excursions, critical maneuvers, and missions to Mars. Each demands a different temporal fidelity. The return to the cis-lunar environment and robotic exploration in that environment increases challenges—for example, radiation shielding outside Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere.

Solar storms may generate a substantially enhanced intensity of energetic charged particles, mostly protons accelerated during solar flares and CMEs. Major concerns for human spaceflight include such solar particle events (SPEs) during which the flux of protons with energies greater than 10 MeV exceeds 10 pfu (particle flux unit; 1 pfu = 1 particle per square cm per second per steradian), and protons with energies greater than 100 MeV exceed 1 pfu. These events may require the crew to shelter in protected areas within orbital vehicles or surface habitats, leading to canceled lunar surface explorations for example. Generally, X-ray flares are not a concern for ISS astronaut safety unless they are accompanied by a significant increase in SEPs. Earth’s magnetic field generally deflects SEPs except near the Earth’s poles, away from the ISS orbit. A major geomagnetic event could enlarge the polar holes to mid- to low latitudes, exposing ISS to increased exposure if the event is accompanied by enhanced flux of SEPs.

Neutrons are produced by both GCR and SPEs in secondary reactions within shielding and from the surrounding lunar surface. These additional neutrons contribute significantly to astronaut exposure within vehicles. The planetary (or lunar surface) neutron albedo is not an issue in Earth orbit due to the presence of the thick, absorbing atmosphere, but must be accounted for in exploration missions.

The Space Radiation Group (SRAG)21 at NASA Johnson Space Center monitors space weather conditions for NASA’s human exploration program. This is generally adequate for ISS operations. Beyond Earth orbit, operational warning and actions must reflect the evolution of the event (<5 hours), which can be an issue for extra-vehicular activities, including lunar surface excursions. NASA will continue to use SWPC for forecasting NASA particle monitors and dosimeters for real-time radiation levels. Human exploration and radiation threat assessment are different from the focus of the scientific community. Needs

___________________

19 Artemis is the umbrella under which NASA’s lunar plans reside as part of a broader Moon-to-Mars approach; NASA hopes to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon by 2028. NASA has created a website for Artemis at https://www.nasa.gov/artemisprogram.

20 See Eddie Semones, Space Radiation Analysis Group, NASA Johnson Space Center, “Human Exploration and Radiation, presentation to the workshop, June 17, 2020.

21 NASA, 2019, “Space Radiation Analysis Group—NASA, JSC,” https://srag.jsc.nasa.gov/MissionSpaceWeather/SpaceWeather.cfm.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

are centered on reliable all-clear and event forecasts, peak flux and temporal evolution, as well as duration predictive capability rather than replicating past events.

SRAG and the CCMC22 (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) have collaborated on a joint project to assemble an Integrated Solar Energetic Proton Event Alert/Warning System (ISEP). This integrated product is intended to incorporate research into actionable information. Challenges remain to communicate evolving forecast needs and to support cis-lunar operations. Building the foundation for future human Mars missions is the final goal.

PNT-RELIANT INDUSTRIES

The following is based largely on the presentation of Susan Skone.23

As society becomes increasingly dependent on PNT services, so too is the importance of understanding and mitigating space weather impacts on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) systems. According to Skone,

  • PNT is critical to defense, agriculture, transportation, marine, surveying, and emerging industry applications;
  • Timing applications include financial services and mobile networks;
  • There is currently approximately $200 billion annual GNSS revenue (devices and services);24
  • The added-value markets for road and consumer solutions is growing (>50% of global GNSS revenue).

Space weather is known to impact PNT via polar/auroral structures, equatorial irregularities, and mid-latitude variability. The Federal Radio Navigation Plan of 2019 established requirements for user positioning and navigation and sample timing requirements. Next step benchmarks include examining the impact of ionospheric disturbances. The key needs are insuring that phenomena are parameterized correctly; physical properties are captured; and these phenomena are translated to operator impacts.

New capabilities are coming on-line including dual-frequency GNSS smart phones with 30 cm localization. It should be noted that the IoT will be impacted by ubiquitous position information. This technology can be used to support science as illustrated with an example using TREx—a distributed network of auroral imagers across Canada.

PNT plays an important role in the telecommunications industry. Cell phone towers require the timing signal from GNSS but can maintain their own independent timing for about 2 hours. Note that the cell phone tower only needs one good signal from a single GNSS satellite.

Plans to improve the monitoring of space weather in the high latitude regions—regions currently lacking dense networks of atmospheric sensors25—was described in the presentation of Bob McCoy, who directs the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska. The institute also has many capabilities for carrying out scientific research, and its facilities include the Alaska Aerospace launch facility that uses space weather information for the North Polar Region.

___________________

22 See NASA, 2018, “CCMC: Community Coordinated Modeling Center,” https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/.

23 Susan Skone, University of Calgary, Canada, “PNT-Reliant Industries,” presentation to the workshop, June 17, 2020.

24 For the value of GNSS, see European Commission Publications Office, 2019, “GNSS Market Report,” Issue 6, https://www.gsa.europa.eu/system/files/reports/market_report_issue_6.pdf, and I. Leveson, 2015, “The Economic Value of GPS: Preliminary Assessment,” Leveson Consulting, https://doi.org/www.gps.gov/governance/advisory/meetings/2015-06/leveson.pdf.

25 A. Coster, S. Skone, D. Hampton, and E. Donovan, 2017, “Monitoring Space Weather with GNSS Networks Expanding GNSS Networks into Northern Alaska and Northwestern Canada,” Proceedings of the 30th International Technical Meeting of The Satellite Division of the Institute of Navigation (ION GNSS+ 2017), September.

Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 36
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 37
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 38
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 39
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 40
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 41
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 42
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 43
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 44
Suggested Citation:"5 Space Weather User Community Needs." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Page 45
Next: 6 Strategic Knowledge and Observation Gaps »
Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $50.00 Buy Ebook | $40.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

In response to a request from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - and with the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation - the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted a two-part virtual workshop, "Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure," on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020. The overall goals of the workshop were to review present space weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities, to consider future observational infrastructure and research needs, and to consider options toward the further development of an effective, resilient, and achievable national space weather program. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!