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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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7

Other Infrastructure Issues

SPACE-BASED ARCHITECTURE

The “Space-Based Architecture” session from the September workshop began with an introduction by Harlan Spence followed by a keynote address by Dan Baker. The following summarizes their remarks as well as the other session presenters shown below.1

  • Harlan Spence, University of New Hampshire, Session Chair
  • Dan Baker, University of Colorado, Boulder, “Space Weather Observing Architecture: A System View”
  • Conrad C. Lautenbacher, GeoOptics, “Leveraging the Commercial Sector”
  • Justin Kasper, Director of R&D at BWX Technologies, “Solar Wind Particle Measurements”
  • Jerry Goldstein, Southwest Research Institute, “ENA and EUV Imaging”
  • Robyn Millan, Dartmouth College, “Distributed LCAS, CubeSats”
  • David Malaspina, University of Colorado, Boulder, “Fields and Waves Measurements”

According to Baker and Spence, a well-conceived and well-executed space-based architecture is critically important for assuring a robust space weather program. Further, a diverse set of broadly positioned space-based assets provides not only valuable real-time situational awareness, but also ground truths for validation of space weather models. It was noted that the present space-based architecture evolved from one that was deeply rooted in scientific and engineering discovery. Initially, single spacecraft typically explored the regions and processes relevant to space weather. Focused science drivers and/or technology goals meant that most missions stood alone. As the science community developed a fuller appreciation of how the regions and processes interrelate, a deeper understanding of the coupled system of systems generally required information gathered through the synergies of simultaneous missions operating both stand alone and as part of a loosely coordinated fleet.

Early space weather space-based architecture emerged in parallel during this period of scientific exploration and discovery. Nascent space weather operational needs also identified the importance of a diverse set of measurements strategically placed throughout the system, but with the additional requirement

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1 Links to the presentations can be found at https://www.nationalacademies.org/spacewx-phaseI-presentations.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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FIGURE 7.1 Connections and interdependencies across the economy. This diagram illustrates the high level of integration of the various sectors in the society, and points to their vulnerability; for example, during (extended) power outages. NOTE: Some connections are not shown. SOURCE: Daniel Baker, University of Colorado, Boulder, presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020; figure courtesy of Sandia National Laboratory in Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, 2008, Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures, http://www.firstempcommission.org/uploads/1/1/9/5/119571849/emp_comm._rpt._crit._nat._infrastructures.pdf.

for continuous observations geared primarily for monitoring than for scientific discovery. Future space-based observational architectures can be optimized by the following:

  1. Building on current understanding of the science and engineering underpinning space weather impacts;
  2. Meeting the demands, needs, and requirements of a growing and diverse user community;
  3. Leveraging a wide variety of existing programs and observational capabilities;
  4. Recognizing that the space weather domain often operates as a system of systems; and, finally
  5. Developing new approaches, systems, and capabilities to fill remaining gaps—current and future—that limit the ability to advance knowledge of space weather and the predictability of its impacts.

The other panelists at the September workshop addressed this topic from a variety of perspectives, identifying gaps, and discussing pathways forward. Those various perspectives and insights are summarized next.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC NEEDS

The risk awareness of our society has grown with the increasing use and reliance on technology. There are strong interdependencies between the different sectors (e.g., energy and power, transportation, communications, finance, water, emergency services) that make society increasingly dependent on flawless operation of technological assets and communication systems (Figure 7.1). Failures in one sector quickly penetrate to others causing major disruptions of daily operations. Many of these sectors, most notably communication and navigation services, increasingly rely on space assets, highlighting the importance of continuous and complete monitoring of the Sun and solar wind as well as Earth’s space environment, both in the high-altitude magnetosphere and at low Earth orbit (LEO).

As the use of space assets has increased from primarily government operations to a wide variety of commercial and private sector uses—affecting all segments of the U.S. economy—the need for productive, cost effective collaboration among all players has significantly increased. Additionally, the society at large still has little understanding of the space weather concepts or risks, and thus there is a significant need for further education of the general public, as well as potential customers for space weather services.

The importance of realizing and understanding the rapid development of the private commercial sector in countering potentially catastrophic space weather events was noted by several workshop speakers and participants. Additionally, it was observed that government leadership over the past 15 to 20 years has recognized the national and worldwide need for better understanding of space weather events and the importance of collaboration among all components of society equipped to contribute to the amelioration of hazardous effects from space weather. The culmination of this interest and development has resulted in detailed planning for the future, which now includes a National Space Weather Strategy officially recognizing the importance of private commercial sector collaboration with the government (safety, regulation), industry (efficiency, competition), and academia (research).

The commercial space weather industry now covers the entire value chain from upstream (research, observations, instrumentation, data) to mid-stream (data processing, computation, algorithms and models) to downstream (forecasts, warnings, services and emergency management). It is known that space weather events can lead to extraordinary damage across a vast, essential, and mostly civilian infrastructure, as was seen on March 13, 1989, when geomagnetic storms resulted in a nine-hour blackout for about 6 million people in Canada’s province of Québec after damage to the electrical power grid operated by Hydro-Québec. Thus, it was asserted, this is not solely a government challenge, but will require the continuing involvement of all available resources to absorb and recover. At the workshop, it was said that the commercial space weather sector is fully able and is currently playing a role in planning, preparing, and recovery activities. The American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA) has assessed the role of a variety of associated companies, and concluded that most operate in multiple sectors. This organization could be used to provide input addressing user needs.

The Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) interagency task force released the Space Weather Phase 1 Benchmarks report in 2018.2 Following its release, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) asked the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) to engage the expertise of the U.S. and international space weather scientific community to make recommendations that would improve the Phase 1 benchmarks, including identifying any outstanding gaps. IDA’s Science and Technology Policy Institute released the Next Step Space Weather Benchmarks document in December 2019.3 The report was written by a 32-member panel of experts who had been divided into five working groups to assess Phase I benchmarks in the following areas: induced

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2 “National Science and Technology Council, 2018, Space Weather Phase 1 Benchmarks: A Report by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee, Committee on Homeland and National Security, June, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Space-Weather-Phase-1-BenchmarksReport.pdf.

3 Institute for Defense Analyses, 2019, Next Step Space Weather Benchmarks, IDA Group Report NS GR-10982, Science and Technology Policy Institute, https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep22832.1.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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geo-electric fields, ionizing radiation, ionospheric disturbances, solar radio bursts, and upper atmosphere expansion. Each working group was asked to assess the Phase 1 benchmarks and to provide near- and long-term research recommendations that would improve the ability to understand and benchmark extreme space weather events. Comparing current commercial private-sector capabilities with the recommendations identified in the IDA Next Steps document, representatives at the workshop from the commercial sector thought it clear that the expertise present in multiple commercial sector companies could contribute to all five benchmark categories.

Commercial space weather service companies provide value-added products and services to monitor and mitigate space weather hazards effecting multiple sectors. Representatives from the commercial sector stated that strong coordination and collaboration is necessary across federal agencies and commercial service providers was needed to support critical infrastructure owners, operators, and users, and to improve America’s ability to understand, predict, and prepare for space weather events. For the future, it was said that much more work is needed to determine the optimal distribution of assignments among the various government-, private-, and commercial-sector sources.

CURRENT AND FUTURE OBSERVATIONS

Participants reviewed current and upcoming observational assets, while noting the widely shared concern that many current space weather services rely on scientific satellites that have no continuity or backup in case of instrument failures. Moreover, these ambitious and often complex missions are poorly suited for 24/7 monitoring and/or real-time data downlinking. The potential exists in the next few years for what was termed an alarmingly reduced monitoring capability that could create significant risks to the society.

In discussion of the necessary observations, the question of what the users actually need was raised. Given the short lead time and uncertainties related to single-point solar wind measurements at L1, experience suggests that power grid operators are not yet ready to power down their systems based on warnings issued from that information only. In order to improve forecasts and models, as well as the reliability of the observations, it may be necessary to replace single-point L1 observations with multipoint solar wind monitoring via multiple probes in the vicinity of L1, as well as monitors further upstream in order to increase the lead time. As discussed below, this may now become financially possible with the use of small satellite technologies.

New Technologies

New, smaller mission concepts, allow key measurements to be done at much lower cost than those done with the currently operative missions. Over the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in the use of CubeSats (Figure 7.2) for a wide variety of applications targeting research and education, including, most recently, commercial operations. CubeSats are low cost, flexible in their configuration, and potentially offer rapid turnaround with the proliferation of coordinated launch opportunities. Their increasing utility was attributed to the development of standardized deployment modules, the availability of miniaturized instrumentation; and the recent increase of mission robustness and lifetime. Small satellites are frequently employed in targeted investigations, the augmentation of other capabilities, technology development and testing, and distributed or high-risk orbit measurements. Even CubeSats are now capable of delivering foundation scientific results.4

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4 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2016, Achieving Science with CubeSats: Thinking Inside the Box, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, doi:10.17226/23503.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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FIGURE 7.2 The rapid growth of the number of small satellites and their much widened user base. NOTE: Most commercial SmallSats are for remote sensing or broadband services. SOURCE: Robyn Millan, Dartmouth College, “Potential of Small Satellites for Space Weather,” presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020, courtesy of Bryce Space and Technology, 2019, Smallsats by the Numbers 2019, https://brycetech.com/reports.html.

Several speakers noted that the constellation missions enabling multipoint observations are becoming realistic and offer significant improvements for the quality of data in all regions, from solar and solar wind to the different parts of the magnetosphere and upper ionosphere. Just one example is the opportunity to use a geostationary transfer orbit constellation covering the region between geostationary altitude and LEO for space weather monitoring in a scientifically critical part of the system hosting Earth’s radiation belts.

Solar and Solar Wind Observations

For convenience, the list below aggregates key observations made by presenters at the workshop regarding solar and solar wind observations.

  • Monitoring the Sun and the solar wind from space-based assets complements ground-based measurements, forming the foundation for any space weather monitoring system. The most widely used and routinely accessible data have been obtained upstream at L1 (WIND, ACE [Advanced Composition Explorer], and DSCOVR in situ plasma, field and solar energetic particles [SEPs]; SOHO [Solar and Heliospheric Observatory] images) or in Earth orbit (GOES [Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite] X rays and SEPs; Solar Dynamics Observatory [SDO] images).
  • Remote monitoring of solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) activity gives a very short lead time before SEPs arrive at Earth, limiting current predictive capabilities for that aspect of space weather.
  • Space-based in situ measurements of electric and magnetic fields in the solar wind form the backbone for quantitative space weather forecasts and are extensively used as model input. The measurements can provide “real-time” (about half-hour lead time) warnings of
Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
  • geomagnetic storm effects, and indications of the severity of the upcoming storm, but are not always available by mission design. It is also not clear how widely such information would/could be used; for example, by commercial system operators or government entities.
  • On the other hand, monitoring the CME activity from multiple vantage points can provide up to 2 days lead time for actions to mitigate the effects of an interplanetary mass ejection (ICME) impacting Earth’s space environment. The STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) mission has shown the usefulness of monitoring the ICME activity away from the Sun-Earth line (most notably from the L4 and L5 vantage points), and several speakers at the workshop mentioned off-L1 and further upstream solar wind observations as a key future need. Moreover, to resolve the three-dimensional (3D) structure of arriving solar wind disturbances, requires multipoint in situ measurements in the upstream wind.
  • Participants also highlighted the limitations of the current observational fleet. For example, as shown in Table 7.1 from David Malaspina’s presentation, observatories inside 1 AU do not provide continuous coverage or real-time data. Improved planning for a sustainable system of essential observations could involve commercial entities, international cooperation, and strategic re-purposing of missions (e.g., post-prime L1 solar/solar wind missions could become Earth-trailing “drifters,” providing additional perspective and corotating structure previews, as noted in presentation to the workshop by Justin Kasper).

High-Altitude Magnetosphere Observations

The inner magnetosphere is the home of the ring current and the Van Allen radiation belts, which are a major source for energetic particles that can be hazardous to spacecraft and their subsystems and instruments. At the moment, there is no mission that would routinely monitor the continuously varying outer electron belt populations or the wave environment driving the acceleration and loss processes of those particles.

Global imaging of the inner magnetosphere is a proven way to gain a global perspective of the extent and intensity of the particle populations in the inner magnetosphere, as was done by the NASA Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) MIDEX mission. While the low densities of the magnetospheric plasma makes imaging challenging, the technological developments since the NASA IMAGE mission have shown that it is indeed possible to gain useful information from both EUV observations of the plasmasphere and the ENA observations of the ring current populations. Such observations, while they would be highly desirable for giving a global context to in situ particle and field measurements, are not included in the near-term plans of any organization. As a simple example, images can be used to monitor the plasmaspheric boundary characterized by strong density gradients, which affect keV electrons associated with spacecraft surface charging. Furthermore, imaging in the ultraviolet wavelengths provides a natural linkage of inner magnetospheric and ionospheric processes.

The inner magnetospheric particles are guided by the local magnetic field, which under strong geomagnetic activity is highly variable in multiple timescales from fraction of seconds to several days. These measurements are key for radiation belt dynamic models and SEP transport models, which are needed to protect U.S. assets in space. One concept presented for inner magnetosphere particle and field measurements would use a fleet of small satellites positioned at geostationary transfer orbits (Figure 7.3). Such a fleet could capture the full extent of the radiation belts between LEO and GEO with about minute temporal exposure time. Due to the massive constellation of simultaneous measurements, the operational and scientific utilization of the data would require using modern machine learning and big data mining capabilities. It was estimated that such a system could be ready for deployment within 1-2 years, and could be realized by contributions from multiple organizations including national and international, government and private sector players. Such measurements would serve beyond their use for real-time monitoring and forecasting as a valuable dataset for development of data-augmented physics-based and data-driven models of the inner magnetosphere dynamics.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

TABLE 7.1 Measurement Gaps in the Solar Wind and Magnetosphere

Fields/Waves Measurement Type Location Primary Space Weather Application(s) Platforms Major Gap
Current
Planned
DC Magnetic fields Low Earth orbit
  • World Magnetic Model maintenance
  • Ionospheric current system dynamics
Swarm, Ampere, DMSP
  • No operational data for WMM
MagQuest, GDC, AMPERE
DC Magnetic fields Inner magnetosphere
  • Geomagnetic field dynamics, Modeling radiation belts, precipitation
GOES, DSX, MMS, Arase, THEMIS, Cluster
  • Few planned future missions
GTOsat
DC Magnetic fields Beyond Earth (L1, L5, L4, near Sun)
  • CME early warning (+/- Bz)
  • Upstream solar wind monitor
ACE, Wind, DSCOVR, STEREO, Solar Orbiter, PSP, BepiColumbo
  • No observatory at L4, L5
SWFO, Lagrange L5, IMAP
VLF plasma wave fields Inner magnetosphere
  • Climatology of plasma wave drivers of radiation belts, precipitation
Arase, THEMIS, DSX
  • No planned future observations
?
Radio frequency electric fields Beyond Earth (L1, L5, L4, Moon, near Sun)
  • CME propagation
  • SEP event prediction
  • Radio blackout warnings
Wind, STEREO, PSP, Solar Orbiter
  • No operational observations
CURIE, SunRISE
High frequency electric fields for dust impact detection Beyond Earth (L1, L5, L4, Moon, near Sun)
  • Climatology of interplanetary dust hazard
Wind, STEREO, Solar Orbiter, PSP
  • No planned future observations
?

SOURCE: David Malaspina, University of Colorado, Boulder, “Fields and Waves Measurements,” presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020.

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FIGURE 7.3 Left: A constellation of small satellites at geosynchronous transfer orbits can provide comprehensive monitoring of the radiation belt environment. Right: Such a constellation would be especially valuable, as the reentry of the Van Allen Probes has left a significant gap in the capacity to follow the most hazardous particle population to U.S. space assets. SOURCE: Left: Robyn Millan, Dartmouth College, “Potential of Small Satellites for Space Weather,” presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020. Right: Daniel Baker, University of Colorado, Boulder, “Space Weather Observing Architecture: A Systems View,” presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020.
Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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FIGURE 7.4 An illustration of the World Magnetic Model updated every 5 years from the presentation by David Malaspina, who highlighted the continuous need for accurate maps for situations when satellite positioning is not available. SOURCE: David Malaspina, University of Colorado, Boulder, “Fields and Waves Measurements,” presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020.

The risks associated with not monitoring this key region are associated with rapid anomaly attribution (not being able to trace the particles and fields conditions that led to an observed anomaly), space domain awareness (not being able to monitor the radiation level in space in real time along satellite orbits), high-altitude nuclear explosion analysis (not being able to promptly diagnose trapped radiation from anthropogenic sources), and lacking capabilities to feed (near) real-time observations to radiation models to issue warnings and forecasts as enhanced radiation conditions commence.

Low-Altitude Observations

LEO is the optimal location for monitoring global ionospheric conditions (electron density, currents, instabilities), thermospheric parameters (temperature, composition, winds, waves), and the characterizing parameters of the ionospheric electrodynamics (auroral and higher-energy electron precipitation location, intensity, and dynamics).

As this is the region densely populated with satellites, it is also the region where the commercial sector has highest interest. Companies that are part of ACSWA have programs that address ionospheric scintillation, ionosphere and thermosphere specification both by in situ and remote sensing technologies, and the different aspects related to radio wave propagation within and through the upper atmosphere. However, the observations are not necessarily well coordinated, nor are the data freely available to other potential users, which calls for a coordinated national public-private effort to fulfill the national needs as well for the government and academia as for the commercial actors.

Commercial constellations are already being used for space weather measurements: A prime example is the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) project, which uses commercial Iridium communication satellites and their onboard magnetometers to deduce the global distribution of auroral currents into and out of the ionosphere. This unprecedented capability to monitor the space environment in LEO has been realized in partnership with private companies and government research laboratories. Such a model could well be adopted to other measurements as well.

As the navigation accuracy requirements increase, it is important to know the accurate state of the geomagnetic field. The World Magnetic Model shown below (Figure 7.4), which is updated every 5 years, is devised using in part space-based high-accuracy measurements of the main field. Such maps enable navigation when Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning is not available and are widely used in civilian navigation systems.

The interest of the commercial sector in using and developing space-based observations for space weather monitoring and forecasting purposes is well-known and was reflected in workshop discussions. Representatives from the commercial sector stated that while industry can and would use the services

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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provided by others in academia and government, it also the capability to develop the requisite space hardware, data processing systems, and model algorithms. Speakers noted the importance of coordination and collaboration across the academic, government, and private sectors in creating an optimal operational space weather architecture. It was also observed that the market for commercially-provided data is still underdeveloped: data are commercially available mainly from remote-sensing LEO satellites, while most other data rely on non-commercial and/or scientific mission data sets. The latter poses a challenge for the real-time availability of the observations. In 2003, the National Research Council published the report Fair Weather: Effective Partnership in Weather and Climate Services.5 In his presentation, an ACSWA representative stated that the recommendations in this report provide guidance on how to optimize the effectiveness of public-private partnerships for space weather. Notably, the first recommendation in the Fair Weather report is that, “The NWS (National Weather Service) should replace its 1991 public-private partnership policy with a policy that defines processes for making decisions on products, technologies, and services, rather than rigidly defining the roles of the NWS and the private sector.”

The space-based architecture panel, and those addressing questions and comments to the panel, clearly recognized that the space weather challenge revolves around a “system of systems.” Traditional operational observing platforms in space have been large, costly, and slow in their development. The panel members all recognized that smaller, more distributed, and more affordable platforms could help meet the rapidly evolving needs of the future users of space. By every means possible, it was recognized that all sectors need space-based observing platforms at key observing points in the connected Sun-Earth system. Moreover, these platforms need to be dedicated and truly operational in perpetuity.

GROUND-BASED ARCHITECTURE

The “Ground-Based Architecture” session at the September workshop built on presentations and discussions begun at the June workshop. Participants emphasized that ground-based observations can and do contribute significantly to the suite of space weather products, spanning all regimes of the geospace environment, including critical measurements of solar properties, of the solar wind, of magnetospheric and ionospheric states, and finally of ground-based magnetic field perturbations (geomagnetically induced currents, or GICs). It was also noted repeatedly that ground-based measurements are an integral part of any space weather architecture for both research and operations. Yet, there was also concern that ground-based measurements are primarily supported as research instruments, and that their use in operations will require stable funding sources and mechanisms to secure operational support, both of which are uncertain at present. Speakers at the session are shown below;6 a summary of their remarks follows.

  • Anthea Coster, MIT Haystack Observatory, Introductory Remarks, Session Chair
  • Dan Eleuterio, Office of Naval Research, Navy Space Weather Interests7
  • David Boteler, Head, Canadian Space Weather Observations and Forecasts Centre (CSFC), “Space Weather Monitoring in Canada”
  • Michael Starks, Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), AF Ground-Based Observations and Space Weather Interests8
  • Valentin Pillet, Director, National Solar Observatory (NSO), “Next Generation GONG (ngGONG)”

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5 National Research Council, 2003, Fair Weather: Effective Partnership in Weather and Climate Services, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/10610.

6 Links to the presentations can be found at https://www.nationalacademies.org/spacewx-phaseI-presentations.

7 Dr. Eleuterio spoke without the use of slides; therefore, his presentation is not on the workshop’s website.

8 Dr. Starks spoke without the use of slides; therefore, his presentation is not on the workshop’s website.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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  • Tim Bastian, National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO), “Radio Inputs to Space Weather Operations and Research”
  • Josh Semeter, Boston University, “The LEO Ground-Based Collaborative”
  • Jenn Gannon, Computational Physics, “Ground-based Measurements: Magnetometers”

Current Geospace Ground-based Observations: Canadian Space Weather Observations and Forecasts Centre

Ground-based space weather measurements are used to monitor solar, geomagnetic, and ionospheric parameters. These observations taken together can provide the basis for a space weather warning center. One example of this is CSFC. As the CSFC is a microcosm of the larger space weather community, a review of the utilization of these ground-based measurements can offer insights into the current state of ground-based instrumentation.

In Canada, the specific space weather concerns are the geomagnetic effects on power systems (following the Hydro-Quebec incident), space environment effects on satellites (e.g., Telesat Anik E), and ionospheric effects on Artic communication channels. To address the issue of power systems, the CSFC accepts data from a network of magnetic observatories and variometers. To study the ionospheric effects on Arctic communication, the center receives data from multiple Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) total electron content and scintillation receivers as well as running and collecting data from a network of riometers. For monitoring space environment effects on satellites, the CSFC provides the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 index), a critical input to a number of atmospheric and ionospheric models. A new multi-frequency solar radio telescope is in the process of being commissioned and new multi-frequency riometers are being developed.

There are also new opportunities in the Arctic for space weather research, including the Artic observing mission. Many of the ground-based networks that feed data into the CSFC are run by universities for research, not operational purposes. This leads to issues with the transition from research to operations; for example, most university researchers do not sign up to the 24/7 operations required by most warning systems nor are they prepared to deliver the data with the latency required for operational use and forecasts.

In summary, although often taken for granted, ground-based instruments are a cost-effective means to provide needed space weather measurements. However, the incorporation of ground-based instruments in future space weather architectures will require long-term funding commitments, a problem in need of a solution in the view of a number of participants.

Ground-Based Solar and Solar Wind Observations

Optical Solar Observations

The current and potential next generation of the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG and ngGONG) was described. GONG is a worldwide network of six identical telescopes designed to provide full-time observations of the Sun (91% duty cycle). It was started in 1995 to measure solar oscillations (unrelated to space weather). In 2006, although not designed with space weather in mind, it was modified for space weather applications, in particular, it was modified to make magnetic field measurements of the Sun. Currently, its operations are funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; $1 million per year), and there is an interagency agreement with NSF that expires in 2021.

In addition to NOAA, observations from GONG are currently used by the Air Force Weather Service, NASA’s Virtual Solar Observatory, the UK Met office, and other international partners. Referencing GONG in his presentation, Valentin Pillet, director of the NSO, observed that NOAA considers GONG an essential facility: its data are critical to the proper initialization of the WSA-ENLIL model, and in fact, the model cannot currently be initialized and run in the absence of these input data. Pillet also noted that the

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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FIGURE 7.5 Next Generation Global Oscillations Network Group (ngGONG) network definition. SOURCE: Valentín M. Pillet, National Solar Observatory, “Next Generation GONG (ngGONG),” presentation to the workshop, September 10, 2020.

Air Force recognizes that optical solar observations are outdated, and that GONG should be updated. However, while upgrade costs have been investigated, workshop participants were told that it remains unclear when a decision on the upgrade will be made. Cost is an issue and participants were informed that one solution might be a partnership between the Department of Defense (DoD) and the civil and international communities to share the non-recurring engineering costs associated with the upgrade, but then have these communities separately build their own sites.

Of note, despite solar monitoring by satellites such as SOHO and LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) and different modeling scenarios, the orientation of the magnetic field of the CMEs when they arrive at Earth cannot be accurately predicted (the Bz problem). This is important, because without this information, the geo-effectiveness of the CME cannot be reliably predicted.

The current status of the next generation solar synoptic network is that it is “under consideration.” AFRL has contacted the High-Altitude Observatory (HAO) and NSO to generate plans for a prototype to be considered for a next generation solar synoptic network. Included in the prototype plans were coronagraphs such as the white light coronagraph (K-Cor) located at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO). The concept that was proposed to AFRL has now been sent to NSF, and a site characterization effort has begun. Both AFRL and NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center have sent operational requirements to the NSF for ngGONG and NSO and HAO are finalizing research requirements. Figure 7.5 shows an initial definition for the ngGONG network.

Solar Radio Observations

Radio observations of the sun are also important to space weather operations and research. In particular, solar radio bursts (SRBs) are known to have impacts on navigation and communication systems. SRBs occur without warning, simultaneously, over a large region. In the case of GNSS, the effects of SRBs are manifested over the entire sunlit hemisphere. Current radio monitoring systems, which only monitor a few widely spaced frequencies, are not always sufficient as high radio flux density can occur in relatively narrow frequency ranges—and unless all bands are monitored, the impact can be underestimated.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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FIGURE 7.6 The Heliophysics System Observatory lacks a strong ground-based component. NOTE: DKIST, Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope; HAO/MLSO, High Altitude Observatory/Mauna Loa Solar Observatory; BBSO, Big Bear Solar Observatory; ngRH, Next Generation Radioheliograph. Although not mentioned on this slide, EOVSA (Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array, http://www.ovsa.njit.edu), a 15-antenna solar-dedicated interferometric radio array currently operating in the range 1-18 GHz, is considered a pathfinder for ngRH. SOURCE: Tim Bastian, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, “Radio Inputs to Space Weather Operations and Research,” presentation to the workshop, September 11, 2020.

In addition, current observing systems do not monitor the polarization state of SRBs, despite the fact that this information can be essential to gauge effects on systems such as GNSS for particular users. In fact, even the statistics of the occurrence rate of extreme events gathered by the current radio monitoring systems are suspect, as there are large discrepancies when their reports are compared to well-calibrated radio measurements. There is also the potential that radio observations can be used as tracers of space weather, such as radio observations of type II/IV and type III solar radio bursts.

In summary, the view expressed at the workshop was that the current state of ground-based radio observations is one where existing data sources are over-reliant on an observational system that saturates on large events, has sparse frequency coverage, does not measure the degree or sense of circular polarization, and is poorly calibrated.

Radio observations also offer the possibility to provide new diagnostics of space weather drivers and their impacts. Radio observations have the sensitivity to monitor chromospheric and coronal magnetic fields, thermal, nonthermal (keV-MeV electrons), and coherent emissions. They have the ability to image phenomena on the solar disk and above the limb and to observe the solar atmosphere as a system.

Although there are over 20 space missions being planned to monitor and study the heliosphere, plans for the ground-based elements of the HSO remain comparatively incomplete as can be seen in Figure 7.6. While DKIST (Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope), MLSO, and the Big Bear Solar Observatory provide optical and infrared solar imaging, and ngGONG will contribute solar magnetic field and additional synoptic imaging as described above, other types of ground-based installations can enhance currently available information. For example, a participant described a solar-dedicated instrument capable of

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Image
FIGURE 7.7 Views of the ionospheric response to magnetospheric processes. Left: Three-dimensional view of ionospheric structure produced by a substorm, as captured by the electronically steerable Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). Upper right: Global snapshot of substorm aurora, obtained using the network of all-sky cameras comprising the THEMIS Ground-based Observatory. Lower right: Newly discovered optical signature of relativistic electron precipitation from the outer radiation belt, highlighting a new capability for auroral imagery. NOTE: See also J. Semeter, T. Butler, C. Heinselman, M. Nicolls, J. Kelly, and D. Hampton, 2009, “Volumetric Imaging of the Auroral Ionosphere: Initial Results from PFISR,” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 71(6-7): 738-743; N. Sivadas, J. Semeter, Y. Nishimura, and S. Mrak, 2019, “Optical Signatures of the Outer Radiation Belt Boundary,” Geophysical Research Letters 46(15): 8588-8596. SOURCE: Courtesy of Joshua Semeter, Boston University; left and bottom right images from the Earth and Space Science Open Archive (ESSOAr). Top right: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio, 2009, “SVS: THEMIS/ASI Nights-High Resolution,” July 7, https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003500/a003590.

performing imaging spectroscopy at radio wavelengths, yielding unique observables that could be used operationally (see Figure 7.6 and caption).9

Ground-Based Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Observations

Ground-based observations provide important insights into magnetosphere-ionospheric coupling processes. For example, merging data from optical imagers and incoherent scatter radars can provide more comprehensive views of the ionospheric response to magnetospheric processes. Figure 7.7 illustrates this with the juxtaposition of a 3D image of an ionospheric response to a substorm measured with the incoherent scatter radar at Poker Flat with ground-based imaging from networks such as THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms Mission).

Networks of GNSS receivers measure global total electron content, and can be used to monitor global ionospheric changes following ionospheric storms. Networks of magnetometers measure currents that define the dynamics of the magnetosphere-ionosphere and provide the data used to define global magnetic

___________________

9 See T.S. Bastian, “Radio Inputs to Space Weather Operations and Research,” presentation to the workshop, September 11, 2020. For details on the FASR (Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope) concept, see T. Bastian et al., Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope: A Next Generation Radio Telescope for Solar Astrophysics and Space Weather, a white paper submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey, https://science.nrao.edu/science/astro2020/apcwhite-papers/201-dea27a2fda59160361b76946a46b3f82_FASR_APC_White_Paper.pdf.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

activity indices. Incoherent radars provide precise measurements of a variety of ionospheric properties as a function of altitude. Optical instruments provide important information about magnetospheric properties.

A new magnetometer network, MAGSTAR, is being developed under an NSF distributed array of small instruments (DASI) award. The current operational magnetometer network is sparse with only five NRCAN and eight U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stations. Most U.S. scientific magnetometer arrays are sponsored by NSF, with each array having its own scientific goal and infrastructure. MAGSTAR is focused on operational infrastructure and is partnered with a multitude of educational, commercial, and government institutions. Specific operational issues for these, and in fact all, ground based sensors include the need for: secure communications links over long-range wireless connections; low-latency data transfer; low-noise sensors, low-power consumption; and solutions for relative and absolute calibration issues.

Merging of scientific and operational needs shows numerous common areas of concern, such as the requirements for high-quality data, reliable uptime, and better coverage. Better coordinated, collaborative efforts can minimize cost outlays between the scientific and operational communities. Discussions at workshop emphasized the importance of identifying support for long-term maintenance and the need to cultivate public-private partnerships in order to leverage synergies between industry tools and academic advanced sensors and expertise.

DoD Interests

Navy and Air Force interests in space weather research are mission oriented, and include the requirement for operational space weather nowcasts and forecasts. The Navy specifically relies heavily on high-frequency (HF) communication and is concerned with day-to-day variability of the ionosphere and its effect on their regional HF-communication links. A major focus of the Navy’s Space Weather research is to obtain a better understanding of the bottom-side ionosphere and trans-ionospheric radio wave propagation and to improve now-casting and forecasting capabilities for HF-comm users. They are interested in obtaining a better characterization of the D and E layers, of traveling ionospheric disturbances, sporadic E, and equatorial spread F. They sponsor several projects involving inexpensive sensors in space-based and ground-based platforms, and they are developing a suite of atmospheric models that assimilate information from multiple ground-based and space-based sensors for the use of space weather analysis and prediction.

The Air Force is particularly interested in addressing areas that expose potential DoD vulnerabilities when either a lack of knowledge or resources compromises decision making/anomaly resolution. One challenge in the current and near-future architectures is the need to reduce the “latency” of information. DoD data sources are constrained by concerns about the security of the data source as well as its resiliency. DoD owned sources have another security issue—their data streams are encrypted; therefore, the encryption devices must be protected. Physical security requires, for ground-based sensors, that they be located at protected locations, restricting the number of suitable locations. Resiliency can be addressed by adding more sources—this can include international sources as well as commercial sources but those sources have to be free from tampering or alteration.

One target area for DoD investment is provision for communications support, in particular, for HF and ultrahigh-frequency (UHF) voice support. NEXION, the next generation ionosonde network, directly supports this via ionospheric characterization. HF and UHF voice support is a global issue. In addition, DoD is concerned with space-based communications that operate in the S- and L-band frequency range. These frequencies are susceptible to equatorial ionospheric scintillation especially at the control sites of Diego Garcia and Guam.

Rapidly proliferating LEOs are a whole new space weather concern. More satellites in equatorial orbits or passing through the equatorial region more frequently means more knowledge of scintillation is required

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Image
FIGURE 7.8 The plot on the left shows a DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellites Program) track overlaid showing ionospheric flows overlaid onto a Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) map. The two right hand images show the associated location and strength of scintillation in the region of large TEC gradients associated with the divergent ionospheric flows shown in the DMSP data on the left. NOTE: See also S. Mrak, J. Semeter, Y. Nishimura, F.S. Rodrigues, A.J. Coster, and K. Groves, 2020, “Leveraging Geodetic GPS Receivers for Ionospheric Scintillation Science,” Radio Science 55(11), and S. Mrak, 2020, “GNSS Remote Sensing of Space Weather at Mid-Latitudes: Ionospheric Irregularities and Source Analysis,” October 2, Boston University Theses and Dissertations, https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/2144/41499. SOURCE: Courtesy of Joshua Semeter, Boston University; left and bottom right images from the Earth and Space Science Open Archive (ESSOAr).

if communications to or from the satellite, with the ground, is required while in a scintillation region. This indicates that improving the system using commercial capabilities may be important.

Currently, AFRL is working with Los Alamos and Space and Missile Systems Center to explore the flow of data into a central repository. This would, ideally, be shared with the research community. The future architecture and the Space Force and Air Force division to be resolved. Issues with Arctic sensing and communications and cis-lunar space indicate the need to work together to meet goals.

New Technologies

Although there is a wealth of information available in the merging of ground-based observations for operations and research of space weather events, drivers, and impacts, the use of data mining will further enhance understanding. Existing data sets are ideal for this challenge. An example is shown in Figure 7.8.

In the burgeoning field of data science, the analytical strategies are the basic research. applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning, to space weather prediction can exploit a vast knowledge base that has been developed over the past 50 years in mathematics, statistics, signal processing, and information theory. By utilizing collaborative observations of ground and low-Earth orbiting sensors, an even larger perspective of the broader heliophysics system can be developed.

In the thesis shown in the presentation, the “LEO–Ground-based Collaborative” is “collaborative observations by sensors on the ground and in low-Earth orbit provide a projection of the broader

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

heliophysics system. Collaborations among physicists, computer scientists, and engineers allow us to optimally exploit this projection for space weather operations.” LEO-ground-based collaborations may have sampling that is generally non-uniform, incomplete, and heterogeneous, yet the data can provide detailed images that depict dramatic changes over time and space. The advantage of this data fusion is that space weather impacts can be mapped to a cause. There are opportunities for shared infrastructure (Earthscope, buoy networks), for shared data resources (earthquake monitoring and space weather), in addition to opportunities for fruitful new collaborations between academic disciplines in mathematics, statistics, computer science, physics, and electrical engineering. Potential collaborations among physicists, computer scientists, and engineers could enable ways to optimally exploit such a system for space weather operations.

In summary, a number of participants spoke to the importance of ground-based observations as a critical component of space weather measurements. Yet, as noted by one participant, the government has set an unfunded mandate for space weather, unlike other science mandates. Many of the ground-based networks of instrumentation are designed for research, and yet are used for monitoring operational space weather (e.g., GONG). The research part of GONG has been funded, but the operational component has not yet been supported. It was noted that monitoring and research are not separated and discovery science is not unrelated to operations. Therefore, it was argued that other ways of supporting and integrating ground-based instrumentation need to be identified, as well as identifying resources to support the transition to operations. Finally, it was observed that as sensor costs have decreased, their numbers have increased—making intercalibration more important.

SUPPORTING RESEARCH ARCHITECTURE

  • Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., Chair
  • Brian Gross, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA Weather Service, “NWS Perspective”
  • Monica Bobra, Stanford University, “Machine Learning”
  • M. Leila Mays, Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), “Model Validation and R2O”
  • Gabor Toth, University of Michigan, “Transitioning Research Models”

The “Architectural Framework Panel—Supporting R&A” session at the September workshop examined the needs for both continuity and for defining the necessary next steps in research supporting the space weather goals.10

Decades of experience integrating both internal and external research results and developing forecast code at the NWS provide invaluable examples for the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which is now also under the NWS administrative and operations umbrella. Future space weather reporting and forecasting has been developing in the direction of greater uses of models involving high-performance computing, and, in particular fluid dynamics simulations of the type used for weather and climate. Like the latter, approaches to space weather modeling are expected to include ensemble modeling, ensembles of models, and data assimilation. Similarly, many of these models are initially developed within the broader community of researchers, including methods of ingesting and preprocessing observations used as well as the source codes themselves.

The NWS has developed ways of working with the larger research community and agencies both foreign and domestic to foster collaboration and exchange, providing many lessons learned and mutual benefits including access to needed data sets. This includes the incorporation of a mutually agreed-upon set of metrics by which models are evaluated for both transitioning from research to applications, and for their ability to produce desired products. Weather forecasting has also demonstrated that Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are important for improving model performance. In such tests, sensitivity

___________________

10 Links to the presentations can be found at https://www.nationalacademies.org/spacewx-phaseI-presentations.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

to various assumptions and parameters is determined, which leads to narrowing down of measurement requirements and identification of ancillary research priorities. However, participants were also informed that one of the main issues in transitioning model upgrades into operations seems to be that the NWS runs too many modeling suites and NWS is in the process of analyzing ways to simplify/streamline their forecasting operations.

In the meantime, SWPC has been working toward an analogous framework that involves (1) maintaining operational observing platforms for their needs; (2) working with NASA to establish an R2O2R program to introduce and improve their forecast models; and (3) enhancing their services by producing regional and local forecasts for certain (mainly Geospace) products, including indices useful for decision-making purposes. Their current coupled space weather forecast model chain, which resulted from years of community model “challenges” and workshops, consists of WSA-ENLIL for solar and heliosphere domain products, the University of Michigan’s Geospace model, CIRES’s WAM-IPE (Whole Atmosphere Model-Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics), for vertical coupling between geospace conditions and the atmosphere, and a geo-electric field model from USGS.

Another rapidly expanding area utilizing state-of-the-art computing techniques and facilities falls under the broad categories of data science/data mining and artificial intelligence uses. Over the last decade the solar and space physics community has been accumulating both long-term data sets, sometimes from disparate sources, as well as high temporal- and spatial-resolution data sets with large data storage requirements and major data transfer/manipulation demands from both hardware and software sides.

The field of machine learning and how it can be applied to learn more about solar activity from previous patterns of behavior is an area ripe for development, and can significantly benefit future space weather services. An open source community approach (e.g., SunPy11) is one example. The key requirements for machine learning techniques to aid in space weather prediction are (1) long-term, continuous, and consistent datasets; (2) easy access to these data; and (3) adequate and available computational resources to undertake these analyses.

Among the major challenges to machine learning’s greater application in the field of space weather research and forecasting has been lack of infrastructure for efficiently manipulating and transferring large data sets, variations in merged data sets collected from different sources (e.g., intercalibration of observations), and sampling limitations (e.g., only a single imaging perspective or too sparse spatial coverage from in situ measurements). Potential solutions for these include (in order): co-locating analysis projects at the sites of the large data sets; availability of sponsored programs focused on improving data sets; and in the longer term deployment of more multi-perspective, multipoint observing systems for space weather monitoring.

NASA’s CCMC is a repository for heliospheric models submitted by the research community for wider use, some of which can be applied for space weather purposes. It is thus a major enabler of community involvement in solar, heliospheric and geospace modeling development. The models hosted by the CCMC generally undergo a filtering process (Figure 7.9) to ensure they meet the goals set by the center: (1) to advance research, (2) to aid in mission planning and science, (3) to enable model validation through data comparisons, and (4) to archive useful models developed under sponsored research programs and the results of model runs at the CCMC. The submitted codes are not open source, and have generally been modified by collaborations with the developer to make them compatible with their practice of providing model runs requested “on demand” by the public.

CCMC also carries out some model validations specifically for NOAA SWPC, keeping a forecasting Scoreboard based on largely retrospective applications and pre-set metrics of performance. They are also active in organizing both domestic and international community workshops where techniques for space weather data-model comparisons, including those that have been developed and implemented at the CCMC,

___________________

11 SunPy is a community-developed, free, and open-source solar data analysis environment for Python. See the SunPy website at https://sunpy.org and The SunPy Community, W.T. Barnes, M.G. Bobra, et al., 2020, “The SunPy Project: Open Source Development and Status of the Version 1.0 Core Package,” Astrophysical Journal 890: 1. Another open source community library is SpacePy at https://spacepy.github.io/.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
Image
FIGURE 7.9 Space weather proving grounds, illustrating steps needed to transition research models to operations. SOURCE: M. Leila Mays, NASA, “Model Validation and R2O at CCMC,” presentation to the workshop, September 11, 2020.

are discussed and lessons learned are shared. CCMC personnel also experiment with real-time runs of data-based space weather forecast models as demonstrations and support specific mission-related modeling campaigns. However, some participants at the workshop asserted that the CCMC was extremely under-resourced. It was said that additional investments would be needed to develop better models—both research and operational—and to enable model developers to be both better informed about the underlying concepts and requirements that make successful operational models, and to be better prepared to work with the CCMC on their model’s ingestion.

One recently initiated program supported by NOAA and managed by NASA is focused on the longstanding need for transitioning research models to operations/applications. This research-to-operations (R2O) process has been tested at SWPC using models like SWA-ENLIL-cone model and the geospace element of the University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework. The approximately 6-year collaboration between SWPC and the University of Michigan group followed the selection of their geospace model after a series of competitive model “challenges” set to the research community in a series of multiagency-sponsored workshops.

Funding provided by NOAA enabled regular interactions to put the model into operation, including tailoring of its outputs to meet the SWPC customers’ desire for local and regional information, such as dB/dt (the rate of change of the magnetic field) at the surface. The model is driven by the “real-time” in situ solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field information from L1 spacecraft, which must adhere to certain criteria in format and cadence to be compatible with the model code. The developers worked with SWPC toward providing products that could be compared with metrics and well as contextual visualizations for model output evaluations. The developers have continued to provide enhancements/improvements to the geospace model, in response to SWPC suggestions, such as the addition of a radiation belt model that utilizes the geospace model results. Other upgrades and coupled models are envisioned to be offered in the future, subject to support for these projects.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×

The session brought together experts representing the broad diversity of the current R2O environment. A state-of-the-art space weather modeling and forecasting enterprise is now taking shape as a part of the NWS, with SWPC bringing its own specialized experiences, tools, and customer needs to the organization. At the same time, NWS knowledge of how to manage an increasing demand for science-based services and grow connections to resources, provides a template and framework for SWPC.

The increased integration of scientific community research efforts, including needed data set preparations and interpretations, and potentially operational models, is necessary if the number and accuracy of products and forecasts is to grow. Participants stated that ongoing collaborations between SWPC and the CCMC at NASA GSFC are invaluable toward this goal. Themes emerging from discussions in this session included the following: (1) a need for more substantial model development and transitioning to operations/programs; (2) more strategic and streamlined planning and processes related to model ingestion and product generation; and (3) a closer interaction between developers and forecasters, and, in particular, helping scientific model developers understand the requirements for producing and successfully transitioning research models into operational tools.

Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
×
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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Suggested Citation:"7 Other Infrastructure Issues." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26128.
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In response to a request from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - and with the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation - the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted a two-part virtual workshop, "Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure," on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020. The overall goals of the workshop were to review present space weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities, to consider future observational infrastructure and research needs, and to consider options toward the further development of an effective, resilient, and achievable national space weather program. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

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