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Statement of Task, Additional Guidance, and Panel Descriptions

STATEMENT OF TASK

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine shall convene an ad hoc survey committee and supporting study panels to carry out a decadal survey in astronomy and astrophysics. The study will generate consensus recommendations to implement a comprehensive strategy and vision for a decade of transformative science at the frontiers of astronomy and astrophysics. The committee, with inputs from study panels covering the breadth of astronomy and astrophysics, will carry out the following tasks:

1. Provide an overview of the current state of astronomy and astrophysics science, and technology research in support of that science, with connections to other scientific areas where appropriate.
2. Identify the most compelling science challenges and frontiers in astronomy and astrophysics, which shall motivate the committee’s strategy for the future.
3. Develop a comprehensive research strategy to advance the frontiers of astronomy and astrophysics for the period 2022–2032 that will include identifying, recommending, and ranking the highest priority research activities—taking into account for each activity the scientific case, international and private landscape, timing, cost category and cost risk, as well as technical readiness, technical risk, and opportunities for partnerships. The strategy should be balanced, by considering large, medium, and small activities for both ground and space. (Activities include any project, telescope, facility, experiment, mission, or research program of sufficient scope to be identified separately in the final report.) For each recommended activity, the committee will lay out the principal science objectives and activity capabilities, including assumed or recommended activity lifetime, where possible.
4. Utilize and recommend decision rules, where appropriate, for the comprehensive research strategy that can accommodate significant but reasonable deviations in the projected budget or changes in urgency precipitated by new discoveries or unanticipated competitive activities.
5. Assess the state of the profession, using information available externally and, if necessary, data gathered by the study itself, including workforce and demographic issues in the field. Identify areas of concern and importance to the community raised by this assessment in service of the future vitality and

1. capability of the astronomy and astrophysics workforce. Where possible, provide specific, actionable, and practical recommendations to the agencies and community to address these areas. This report shall be made available following the completion of the study.

ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE FOR THE DECADAL SURVEY

Scope

Reflecting previous astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys and developments since the last survey, the scope of the study will include the entire breadth of research in the field. In particular, the scope will include the following:

• Ground- and space-based observational, theoretical, computational, laboratory astrophysics (as supported by the NASA Astrophysics Division and the National Science Foundation [NSF]), and archival activities and capabilities;
• Solar astronomy, but any prioritization in this area will be limited to ground-based activities. Any findings and recommendations made that relate to ground-based activities (e.g., ground-based solar observatories) will be directed to the NSF and shall include consideration of findings and recommendations in the National Academies report Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society (2012).
• Gravitational wave observations used to inform or as they relate to the full breadth of astronomy and astrophysics. If the committee feels it is appropriate, the report may comment on areas of technology investment in ground-based gravitational wave observations that would give the best scientific returns. However, activity recommendations shall be limited to those that fall within the areas of implementation by NSF and by the NASA Astrophysics Division.
• Multi-messenger astronomy and astrophysics investigations that may be conducted using the wide variety of messengers, including the full breadth of electromagnetic observations, gravitational waves, and particles from astronomical sources. Many projects with science topics aligned with the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of High Energy Physics may also contribute to multi-messenger astrophysics. However, specific multi-messenger activity recommendations shall be limited to those that fall within the areas of implementation by NSF and by the NASA Astrophysics Division.
• The science of exoplanets, including the search for life in the universe. Any findings and recommendations shall include consideration of the outputs of the National Academies committees that are developing science strategies in exoplanet science (Exoplanet Science Strategy) and astrobiology (Astrobiology Science Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe), the reports of which are expected to be released in 2018, as well as areas of potential collaboration between and within agencies and non-federal entities.

The scope of the study will exclude project or activity recommendations in the following areas:

• Fundamental physics, such as studying the physics of particles and fields, other than through naturally occurring observables.
• Direct detection or accelerator-based dark matter particle searches that are traditionally considered and carried out by the NSF and DOE particle physics communities.
• Microgravity research.
• Construction of projects whose agency-supported implementation is already in progress—specifically, the James Web Space Telescope (JWST), Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

In order to ensure consistency with other advice developed by the National Academies for NASA, the following additional scope guidance is provided:

• The study will assess whether NASA’s plans for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (formerly Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope), the Advanced Telescope for High Energy Physics (Athena), and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) play an appropriate role in the research strategy for the next decade. The study may include findings and recommendations regarding those plans, as appropriate, including substantive changes in NASA’s plans. Recommendations may include, but are not limited to, actions ranging from increased investments (upscopes) to reduced investments (descopes) and termination. It is not necessary to rank the Roman Space Telescope, Athena, and LISA among other recommended activities for space.

Considerations

The study’s prioritization of research activities will be based on the committee’s consideration of identified science priorities; independent assessments of cost and cost risk, as well as technology readiness and risk; the likely emergence of new technologies; computational infrastructure for modeling, data assimilation, and data management; and opportunities to leverage related activities, including consideration of interagency cooperation, federal/non-federal partnerships, and international collaboration.

In developing a comprehensive research strategy, the study will also:

• Consider agency (NASA Astrophysics Division, NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences and other NSF divisions supporting astrophysical research, and DOE Office of High Energy Physics) expectations of future budget allocations in the field, including interface areas, as well as expectations for the completion of projects already under development, and design recommendations based on budget scenarios relative to those expectations; the study may also consider scenarios that account for higher- or lower-than-anticipated allocations.
• Consider activities and investments of all relevant and appropriate sizes, from research programs to development and operation of small, medium, and large facilities and other projects.
• Consider the status and evolution of ongoing programs (“programs of record”) of the agencies, including the balance of activities and investments of all relevant and appropriate sizes and types, research programs (including individual investigator programs), ongoing support of operational missions and facilities, and the balance that would best address the committee’s recommended science priorities and comprehensive strategy.
• Consider and clearly define the study’s interpretation of “balance,” using the National Academies report The Space Science Decadal Surveys—Lessons Learned and Best Practices (2015), as a guide.
• Consider ongoing and planned international and privately funded activities and capabilities, including possible joint ventures and collaborations between and within domestic and foreign agencies, taking into account the roles and fractions of participants.
• Consider ongoing and planned activities and capabilities in other organizational units of NASA, including (but not limited to) in-space assembly and servicing and existing and planned research platforms in Earth orbit and cis-lunar space.
• Consider any technological innovation or development required to attain the science priorities and enable the activities in the comprehensive strategy.
• Consider the development of cyber-infrastructure as it impacts the scientific capabilities and utilization of facilities, archival research, and theoretical capabilities.

• Consider utilization of and access to existing and proposed facilities for U.S. users.
• Consider the full breadth of astronomy and astrophysics activities by seeking input from non-federal entities such as private philanthropic organizations, international organizations, foreign government agencies, universities, professional societies, privately funded research centers, and other groups that are interested or potentially interested in this area.

Approach

The study will provide recommendations primarily to the NASA Astrophysics Division, the NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences, and the DOE Office of High Energy Physics. Other divisions (e.g., NSF Division of Physics, the Office of Polar Programs, or the Directorate for Computer and Information Science and Engineering) may be included as appropriate.

The committee will consist of approximately 18 members and be responsible for the overall organization and execution of the study, as well as the production of a final consensus report that will undergo the usual National Academies review processes. Given the current breadth of astrophysical topics in the multi-messenger era, the composition of the committee and panels must include the appropriate range of scientific and technical expertise. In addition, the composition should take full advantage of the diversity of the astronomy and astrophysics science community in factors such as gender, race, ethnicity, career stage, types and sizes of institutions, geographic distribution, and disability status.

The final report will represent a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of the subject domain and a broad consensus among research community stakeholders. To do so, it is anticipated that the committee will utilize approximately nine specialized panels whose structure will be determined by the committee. The allocation of the domain of study among the panels will be determined by the committee. An important role of the panels will be to evaluate input from the research community about issues of scientific and programmatic priorities in the field. The work of the study panels will result in separate, independent reports compiled into a second published volume; panel outputs will be guided by the committee and used to prepare a single final report.

In assembling the committee and panels, calls for nominations will be sent to the astronomy/astrophysics community and sponsors. National Academies staff will nominate a candidate for chair after consultation with the National Academies boards and standing committees that represent the astronomy/astrophysics community, as well as other leaders of the community. The chair will then work with National Academies staff and members of the astronomy/astrophysics community to develop the structure for the study and a slate of nominees for the balance of the committee. Nominees for panel members will be selected in a similar fashion. In assembling the slate of nominees for the committee and panels, National Academies staff will follow National Academies procedures for reducing and balancing biases and for ensuring that the committee and panels have the needed expertise across disciplines and diversity among their members, including gender, underrepresented groups, types and sizes of institutions, and geographic distribution.

It is essential that the study solicit inputs from across the astronomy and astrophysics community broadly construed, by means of town hall meetings, sessions at geographically dispersed professional meetings, solicitation of white papers, and use of electronic communications and networks. It is anticipated that a call for white papers will be issued prior to the commencement of the study itself. The committee may also convene focused workshops on special topics of interest. Other input-gathering methods will be explored and used, such as the pre-study early-career astronomers event.

In designing and budgeting the study, the Academies will include resources for independent, expert analysis on cost risk and technical risk associated with potential recommended activities as input to the committee’s prioritization process.

The committee may consider unrealized activities from previous astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys that are submitted to the study for consideration in the prioritization process, unless stipulated otherwise in the Scope section of this document.

Prioritized activities will be binned into broad cost categories and into ground-based and space-based categories, where possible.

PANEL DESCRIPTIONS—SCIENCE PANELS

Panel on Compact Objects and Energetic Phenomena

The Panel on Compact Objects and Energetic Phenomena will identify and articulate the scientific themes that will define the frontier in research of compact objects and energetic phenomena in the 2022–2032 decade. Its scope will include white dwarfs, neutron stars, pulsars, magnetars, stellar mass black holes, compact binary systems, novae, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, fast radio bursts, physical processes and accretion onto supermassive black holes, and gravitational radiation and high-energy particles and radiation from astrophysical sources.

Panel on Cosmology

The Panel on Cosmology will identify and articulate the scientific themes that will define the frontier in cosmology research in the 2022–2032 decade. Its scope will include the early universe, the cosmic microwave background, cosmological tests and parameters, the epoch of reionization observations and theory, large-scale structure, dark energy, dark matter (excluding direct detection), and gravitational lensing and microlensing as applied to cosmology, as well as astrophysical tests of fundamental physics.

Panel on Galaxies

The Panel on Galaxies will identify and articulate the scientific themes that will define the frontier in galaxy research in the 2022–2032 decade. Its scope will include observations, theory, and simulations of galaxy formation and evolution, galactic structure and dynamics, galaxy clusters, stellar populations in galaxies, the intergalactic medium, chemical evolution of galaxies, gravitational lensing as applied to galaxy structure, demographics of supermassive black holes, co-evolution of galaxies and supermassive black holes, relevant aspects of Milky Way science, and related phenomena associated with active galactic nuclei.

Panel on Exoplanets, Astrobiology, and the Solar System

The Panel on Exoplanets, Astrobiology, and the Solar System will identify and articulate the scientific themes that will define the frontier in research of exoplanets, astrobiology, and the solar system in the 2022–2032 decade. Its scope will include the detection, demographics, and physical characteristics of exoplanets, solar system observations relevant to Astro2020, astrobiology, stellar phenomena and activity that impact detectability and characterization of exoplanets, and effects of stellar activity on the evolution and habitability of planets. The panel will consider as inputs the congressionally mandated reports Exoplanet Science Strategy and An Astrobiology Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe.

Panel on the Interstellar Medium and Star and Planet Formation

The Panel on the Interstellar Medium and Star and Planet Formation will identify and articulate the scientific themes that will define the frontier in research of the interstellar medium and the formation of stars and planets in the 2022–2032 decade. Its scope will include the interstellar medium and star formation in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, astrochemistry, interstellar plasmas, protoplanetary disks and debris disks, and planet formation.

Panel on Stars, the Sun, and Stellar Populations

The Panel on Stars, the Sun, and Stellar Populations will identify and articulate the scientific themes that will define the frontier in research of stars, stellar populations, and the Sun in the 2022–2032 decade. Its scope will include stellar structure and evolution, stellar activity and variability, brown dwarfs, solar astronomy as relevant to Astro2020, resolved stellar populations and star clusters in the local group, and stellar nucleosynthesis and chemical evolution.

PANEL DESCRIPTIONS—PROGRAM PANELS

Panel on an Enabling Foundation for Research

The Panel on an Enabling Foundation for Research will summarize the current state of resources and support, identify major challenges, and make suggestions to the Astro2020 committee on the topics of theory, computation, and simulation; data collection, archiving, and analysis; facilities, funding, and programs; laboratory astrophysics; and general technology development. The panel’s suggestions will be incorporated into a program for all of astronomy and astrophysics by the Astro2020 committee.

Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space 1

The Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space 1 (EOS-1) will identify and suggest to the decadal survey committee a program of federal investment in research activities that involve observations of astrophysical phenomena primarily by means of ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared electromagnetic measurements from space. The EOS-1 panel will also consider technology development needs to support the program. In formulating its conclusions, the EOS-1 panel will draw on several sources of information: (1) the science forefronts identified by the Astro2020 science panels; (2) input from the proponents of research activities; and (3) independent risk, technical readiness, and cost evaluations. The EOS-1 panel’s suggestions will be integrated into a program for all of astronomy and astrophysics by the Astro2020 committee.

Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space 2

The Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space 2 (EOS-2) will identify and suggest to the decadal survey committee a program of federal investment in research activities that involve observations of astrophysical phenomena primarily by means of radio, far-infrared, and high-energy electromagnetic observations from space, and research activities that involve gravitational radiation or particle detection from space. The EOS-2 panel will also consider technology development needs to support the program. In formulating its conclusions, the EOS-2 panel will draw on several sources of information: (1) the science

forefronts identified by the Astro2020 science panels; (2) input from the proponents of research activities; and (3) independent risk, technical readiness, and cost evaluations. The EOS-2 panel’s suggestions will be integrated into a program for all of astronomy and astrophysics by the Astro2020 committee.

Panel on Optical and Infrared Observations from the Ground

The Panel on Optical and Infrared Observations from the Ground (OIR) will identify and suggest to the decadal survey committee a program of federal investment in ground-based research activities that involve observations of astrophysical phenomena primarily by means of optical and infrared measurements from the ground. The OIR panel will also consider technology development needs to support the program. In formulating its conclusions, the OIR panel will draw on several sources of information: (1) the science forefronts identified by the Astro2020 science panels; (2) input from the proponents of research activities; and (3) independent risk, technical readiness, and cost evaluations. The OIR panel’s suggestions will be integrated into a program for all of astronomy and astrophysics by the Astro2020 committee.

Panel on Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation

The Panel on Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation (PAG) will identify and suggest to the decadal survey committee a program of federal investment in research activities exploring areas at the interface of physics and astronomy such as gravitational radiation, gamma-ray astronomy, cosmic rays, and neutrinos. The PAG panel will also consider technology development needs to support the program. In formulating its conclusions, the PAG panel will draw on several sources of information: (1) the science forefronts identified by the Astro2020 science panels; (2) input from the proponents of research activities; and (3) independent risk, technical readiness, and cost evaluations. The PAG panel’s suggestions will be integrated into a program for all of astronomy and astrophysics by the Astro2020 committee.

Panel on Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Observations from the Ground

The Panel on Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Observations from the Ground (RMS) will identify and suggest to the decadal survey committee a program of federal investment in ground-based research activities that primarily operate in the radio, millimeter, and submillimeter portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The RMS panel will also consider technology development needs to support the program. In formulating its conclusions, the RMS panel will draw on several sources of information: (1) the science forefronts identified by the Astro2020 science panels; (2) input from the proponents of research activities; and (3) independent risk, technical readiness, and cost evaluations. The RMS panel’s suggestions will be integrated into a program for all of astronomy and astrophysics by the Astro2020 committee.

PANEL DESCRIPTION—PANEL ON STATE OF THE PROFESSION AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS

The Panel on State of the Profession and Societal Impacts will gather information on the health and demographics of the astronomy and astrophysics community and make actionable suggestions to the Astro2020 committee on the topics of demographics, diversity and inclusion, workplace climate, workforce development, education, public outreach, and relevant areas of astronomy and public policy. The panel’s suggestions will be incorporated into a program for all of astronomy and astrophysics by the Astro2020 committee.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE STEERING COMMITTEE TO THE SCIENCE PANELS

The Astro2020 steering committee gave additional instructions to the science panels as they carried out their work of defining science themes for the next decade. Regarding content, the science panels were asked to provide a brief review of the current state of the science in their topic areas and to determine four important science questions to be addressed in the next decade and one area that shows great promise for discovery. The science panels were also asked to provide a summary of the general capabilities needed to address the science questions and discovery areas without going into an excess of quantitative detail. Linking general capabilities to specific ground or space activities in consideration by the decadal survey was out of scope for the science panels. To accomplish their work, the panels relied on the 572 science white papers submitted by the astronomy and astrophysics community, the expertise of the panel members, discussion with other panels about common topics, and invited speakers, if necessary, to fill in any gaps. Structurally, the science panels were requested to keep their reports brief, keeping figures and citations to a minimum, but they were not constrained in how they chose to organize their writing.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE STEERING COMMITTEE TO THE PROGRAM PANELS

The Astro2020 steering committee gave additional instructions to the program panels as they carried out their work of suggesting programs of federal investment in research activities for the next decade. These programs were then to be integrated by the steering committee into a recommended program for all of astronomy and astrophysics. Regarding content, the program panels were asked to provide a brief summary of the current state of the relevant program area to include facilities and programs in development, international capabilities, and major gaps in capabilities available to the U.S. astrophysics community. The program panels were also charged to assess the ability of current and proposed projects under consideration to address the science panels’ questions and discovery areas, to comment on the Technical, Risk, and Cost Evaluations (TRACEs) of the proposed projects, and to identify key areas of technical development or precursor research activities. The program panels were requested to identify the projects that were best suited for and most readily prepared to address the science priorities in the next decade; however, they were not asked to provide a ranked list of investments. The program panels had the option, but were not required, to discuss how the proposed projects might be modified to better fit the science priorities or the expected future budget availability. For medium-scale projects usually chosen by competitive selection, the program panels were asked to give examples of these projects and to discuss the balance of medium- and small-scale activities versus larger strategic investments. Detailed discussion of additional research and theory programs was primarily the task of the Panel on an Enabling Foundation for Research.

To accomplish their work, the panels relied on 294 activity, project, or state of the profession (APC) white papers submitted by the astronomy and astrophysics community, the expertise of the panel members, independent TRACE analyses of selected projects, and as needed, invited speakers and additional requests for information from the proposed projects. Structurally, the program panels were requested to keep their reports brief but were not constrained in how they chose to organize their writing.