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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26168.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Cryptography and the Intelligence Community The Future of Encryption Committee on the Future of Encryption Intelligence Community Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by Contract No. 2020-20011300401-002 with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: X-XXX-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26168 Copies of this publication are available from Intelligence Community Studies Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 500 Fifth Street, NW, Room 928 Washington, DC 20001 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Cryptography and the Intelligence Community: The Future of Encryption. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26168. PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies. org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www. nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF ENCRYPTION STEVEN B. LIPNER, NAE,1 SAFECode/Carnegie Mellon University, Chair MARK LOWENTHAL, Intelligence & Security Academy, LLC, Vice Chair HANS ROBERT DAVIES, Toffler Associates CHIP ELLIOTT, BBN Technologies GLENN S. GERSTELL, Center for Strategic & International Studies NADIA HENINGER, University of California, San Diego SENY KAMARA, Brown University PAUL CARL KOCHER, NAE, American Cryptographer BRIAN LaMACCHIA, Microsoft Research BUTLER W. LAMPSON, NAS2/NAE, Microsoft Research RAFAIL OSTROVSKY, University of California, Los Angeles ELIZABETH RINDSKOPF PARKER, State Bar of California (retired) PETER SWIRE, Georgia Institute of Technology PETER J. WEINBERGER, Google, Inc. Staff CARYN A. LESLIE, Acting Director, Intelligence Community Studies Board JON EISENBERG, Director, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board LYNETTE MILLETT, Senior Program Officer, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator, Intelligence Community Studies Board 1  Member, National Academy Engineering. 2  Member, National Academy of Sciences. v PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY STUDIES BOARD MARK LOWENTHAL, Intelligence & Security Academy, LLC, Co-Chair MICHAEL A. MARLETTA, NAS1/NAM,2 University of California, Berkeley, Co-Chair JOEL BRENNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROBERT CARDILLO, The Cardillo Group, LLC FREDERICK R. CHANG, NAE,3 Southern Methodist University DEAN CHENG, The Heritage Foundation ROBERT C. DYNES, NAS, University of California (president emeritus) ROBERT A. FEIN, Harvard Medical School HUBAN A. GOWADIA, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MARGARET A. HAMBURG, NAM, Nuclear Threat Initiative MIRIAM E. JOHN, Independent Consultant ANITA K. JONES, NAE, University of Virginia (professor emerita) STEVEN E. KOONIN, NAS, Center for Urban Science and Progress CARMEN L. MIDDLETON, The Walt Disney Company ARTHUR L. MONEY, NAE, Department of Defense WILLIAM C. OSTENDORFF, United States Naval Academy DAVID A. RELMAN, NAM, Stanford University ELIZABETH RINDSKOPF PARKER, State Bar of California (retired) SAMUEL S. VISNER, The MITRE Corporation DAVID A. WHELAN, NAE, Cubic Staff DIONNA ALI, Associate Program Officer BRYAN BUNNELL, Research Associate JOSEPH CZIKA, Senior Program Officer MICHAEL ANTHONY FAINBERG, Senior Program Officer CARYN A. LESLIE, Acting Director NIA JOHNSON, Program Officer MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator 1  Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2  Member, National Academy of Medicine. 3  Member, National Academy of Engineering. vi PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspec- tives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Cynthia Beall, NAS,1 Case Western Reserve University, Thomas A. Berson, NAE,2 Salesforce, Susan Landau, The Fletcher School and Tufts School of Engineering, Marvin J. Langston, Langston Associates, LLC, John Manferdelli, VMWare, Julie J.H.C. Ryan, Wyndrose Technical Group, and Fred Schneider, NAE, Cornell University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert F. Sproull, NAE, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and Deborah Westphal, Toffler Associates. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review com- ments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. 1  Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2  Member, National Academy of Engineering. vii PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

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Preface The U.S. Intelligence Community, like intelligence organizations worldwide, uses encryption to protect sensi- tive information from disclosure and modification, and also seeks to decrypt encrypted information that it collects as part of its mission. In 2020, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conduct a study to explore the future of encryption over the next 10 to 20 years. The study was to explore technical and non-technical drivers that would affect the viability of the community’s use of encryption to protect information and the challenges of defeating adversaries’ encryp- tion and to produce a set of scenarios that would illustrate possible futures in which the Intelligence Community would have to operate. The National Academies established the Committee on the Future of Encryption to conduct the study. The full statement of task for the committee is shown in Appendix A. The biographies of the committee members that authored this report are shown in Appendix B. Committee members included academics, industrial researchers, and engineering practitioners in cryptography and computer science as well as attorneys and policy and intelligence professionals. They brought great expertise in the technology of encryption, its applications and integration into information systems and networks, and the policies and operations of government agencies that both use and seek to defeat encryption. Because of the con- straints posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the committee was unable to meet in person and held virtual meetings biweekly from September 2020 to September 2021. The committee operated under the auspices of the National Academies’ Intelligence Community Studies Board and is grateful for the able assistance of Caryn A. Leslie, Marguerite Schneider, and Lynette Millett of the National Academies’ staff. ix PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 12 2 INTRODUCTION TO ENCRYPTION 16 3 METHODOLOGY 35 4 DRIVERS 40 5 SCENARIOS 81 6 IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. INTELLIGENCE 101 7 FINDINGS 105 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 113 B Meeting Agendas 114 C Potential Scenarios 116 D Global Trends 2040 119 E Acronyms and Abbreviations 122 F Committee Member Biographical Information 125 xi PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs

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Encryption is a process for making information unreadable by an adversary who does not possess a specific key that is required to make the encrypted information readable. The inverse process, making information that has been encrypted readable, is referred to as decryption. Cryptography has become widespread and is used by private as well as governmental actors. It also enables authentication and underlies the safe use of the Internet and computer systems by individuals and organizations worldwide. Emerging cryptographic technologies offer capabilities such as the ability to process encrypted information without first decrypting it.

At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, this report identifies potential scenarios that would describe the balance between encryption and decryption over the next 10 to 20 years and assesses the national security and intelligence implications of each scenario. For each of these scenarios, Cryptography and the Intelligence Community identifies risks, opportunities, and actions. Attention to the findings should enable the Intelligence Community to prepare for the future and to recognize emerging trends and developments and respond appropriately.

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