is driven by diverse teams that facilitate novel thinking and adaptability (Hofstra et al., 2020). Equity, inclusiveness, respect, fairness, and scientific integrity are core principles of the UN Ocean Decade and as such permeate all activities; in the words of the UN Ocean Decade, “no one is left behind” and all are empowered to contribute to the ocean science enterprise.

Initial efforts on this foundational theme will define an inclusive and equitable ocean and establish a framework and methodology to incorporate core principles into each topical theme. The primary outcome of this theme will be to elevate equity and inclusion as a priority for the UN Ocean Decade, and help define and guide implementation of inclusive and equitable ocean science practices throughout the topical themes.

Under this theme, additional topics for research may be identified that have applications to ocean sustainability, such as studies on the variety of barriers encountered by individuals from underrepresented groups in pursuing a career in ocean studies. This could be followed by an effort to identify effective practices that empower students to seek and succeed in ocean careers. Other activities could include the development of programs for engaging underserved coastal communities to identify needs and contribute to gathering information on topics such as securing benefits from growth in the blue economy, coastal restoration, or climate adaptation.

An Inclusive and Equitable Ocean will further the development of approaches that span the scientific, technical, policy, management, Indigenous, and stakeholder communities to ensure involvement of the full diversity of society in setting science priorities for sustainable ocean development and ocean knowledge generation.

Decade Challenges and Outcomes Addressed

This theme directly addresses UN Ocean Decade Outcome 6: “An accessible ocean with open and equitable access to data, information and technology and innovation” and Outcome 7: “An inspiring and engaging ocean where society understands and values the ocean in relation to human well-being and sustainable development” (UNESCO-IOC, 2021a). It also directly addresses UN Ocean Decade Challenge 9: “Skills, knowledge and technology for all - Ensure comprehensive capacity development and equitable access to data, information, knowledge and technology across all aspects of ocean science and for all stakeholders” and Challenge 10: “Change humanity’s relationship with the ocean - Ensure that the multiple values and services of the ocean for human well-being, culture, and sustainable development are widely understood, and identify and overcome barriers to behaviour change required for a step change in humanity’s relationship with the ocean.”¹ In developing principles and guidelines for addressing these chal-

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¹ See https://www.oceandecade.org/challenges.

lenges and outcomes, this theme will help inform the conduct of other UN Ocean Decade research programs and guide the application of knowledge to action.

Connections to Ocean-Shots, UN Ocean Decade Actions, and U.S. Ocean Priorities

This foundational theme builds on expert discussions organized by the National Academies’ Ocean Studies Board to examine diversity, equity, inclusion, justice, and belonging in ocean studies. It also addresses nearly 20 Ocean-Shot submissions and complements UN Ocean Decade–endorsed actions on the critical issue of involving diverse communities in ocean-related research; incorporating broad cultural values; and embracing the principles of justice, equity, diversity, and inclusiveness (see Table 2.1). The value of engagement of diverse communities is recognized as an area of immediate opportunity as described under “Improve data integration in decision-support tools” in Science and Technology for America’s Oceans: A Decadal Vision (U.S. Decadal Vision; SOST, 2018). From the development of ocean science knowledge networks to the creation of tools for ocean science education, outreach, and engagement, the community clearly recognizes the need for change and submitted a range of ideas in the Ocean-Shots to achieve that change.

Potential Research Elements

• Identify methodology related to
  • broadening approaches to knowledge generation and use, including co-development and equitable exchange, to incorporate different cultures, disciplines, and values;
  • developing strategies to relate place-based and qualitative knowledge to the more quantitative and large-scale, big data approaches and ways to incorporate different types of data, considering different types of evidence that are important for the co-creation of knowledge;
  • increasing scientific and technical capacity from local to regional scales, and across sectors to include broader participation;
  • improving access to data, information, technology, and research infrastructure in underserved communities and countries; and
  • building appreciation of the ocean’s economic, social, and cultural values to public and individual health and well-being, and sustainable development through promotion of ocean literacy.
• Identify equity and inclusion-specific research areas that can inform ocean research, such as a place-based analysis of past community-engagement programs, comparisons of ocean and land-based governance approaches, and studies on the effectiveness of citizen/community science initiatives in building confidence in scientific information.
• Develop principles, guidance, and an action plan for incorporating these

elements into each topical theme and using them to inform future activities in support of the UN Ocean Decade.

• Identify and compile best practices for equitably applying and adapting knowledge, resources, and activities to meet the needs of diverse communities across scales.

Potential Next Steps

If funding is received, a workshop with diversity, equity, inclusion, and environmental justice experts; social and natural scientists; and other interested scholars and practitioners will be organized as the initial activity to take place after the publication of this report. This workshop will help to identify approaches for broader involvement of diverse communities in contributing to and determining needs for ocean science for sustainable development and to guide the incorporation of effective practices into each of the topical themes. Resources and guidelines for furthering inclusion and equity will be presented. Examples of programs that have succeeded in or aspired to address various aspects of this issue will be discussed. The goal will be to identify key actions for a more inclusive and equitable ocean and how to implement them in the topical themes and future activities in support of the UN Ocean Decade. Some of the actions may include the following:

• Early engagement and co-development of research topics and sustained involvement of diverse stakeholders in the study process and outcomes;
• Community engagement in data collection, analysis, interpretation, and development of sustainable solutions;
• Effective approaches for presenting and communicating scientific information that cross natural science, social science, and humanities disciplines;
• A knowledge repository, including training materials and best practices, to inform and support equitable and inclusive practices in the ocean community; and
• Creation of a Leadership Learning Circle for learning and sharing among organizations and people who are leading the vanguard in diverse, equitable, and inclusive ocean practices and those seeking guidance in launching similar efforts.

The proposed workshop will refine this list, set a foundation, and chart the course for its implementation into each topical theme.

sources (e.g., including the output of large-scale global ocean and climate models) to local users who wish to perform analyses or create services. For example, the effective application of the “digital twin” approach (a model designed to represent a component of a physical system, such as an ocean basin, that is “tuned” with data from the physical twin) will depend on greater access to both data and computational capacity. This situation illustrates the need for cloud-based and remote computational engines to access and analyze these remote data.

Because future data needs and knowledge services cannot be anticipated, democratized data access and services that are driven by a user-centric and decentralized process will be required before a vision of highly adaptive and dynamic ocean management approaches can be achieved. Scientists need to rethink the intersections among observing systems, information systems, and knowledge systems that are focused on delivering services and solutions, not just data. New approaches, such as placing tagged or labeled data within data “lakes,” focus on implementing easy-to-use and extensible² interfaces for adding new data types as well as for creating new services based on these data.

The UN Ocean Decade is a unique and timely opportunity to foster the coordination needed to make ocean data and computational services available to meet the pressing needs of the future. The UN Ocean Decade could enable findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR; Wilkinson et al., 2016) and collective benefit, authority to control, responsibility, and ethics (CARE; GIDA, 2019) data systems, including standardization and calibration to maximize the value of the data to a broad community of users. This includes standards or best practices for assessment and reporting of uncertainty regarding the reliability of the data to guide users of the information. It will be necessary to change norms and expectations to liberate data and to foster the innovations that will put actionable information in the hands of managers, users, and stakeholders. In partnership with existing UN Ocean Decade actions and private-sector initiatives, the United States could play a key role in the creation of an open, actionable, and equitable digital ecosystem for ocean knowledge across all ocean arenas.

As a foundational theme, An Ocean of Data will improve data availability and access through the development of a framework for implementing FAIR and CARE data principles and the creation of a path toward a digital ecosystem that delivers ubiquitous compute-intensive data services. Consideration of these digital ocean outcomes will also assist in the operationalization of each topical theme.

Decade Challenges and Outcomes Addressed

While this theme supports all seven of the UN Ocean Decade outcomes, it most directly fulfills Outcome 6: “An accessible ocean with open and equitable

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² The ability to extend a system to add new capabilities or functions, generally in reference to software.

access to data, information and technology and innovation” (UNESCO-IOC, 2021a). It also directly addresses UN Ocean Decade Challenge 7: “Expand the Global Ocean Observing System - Ensure a sustainable ocean observing system across all ocean basins that delivers accessible, timely, and actionable data and information to all users” and UN Ocean Decade Challenge 9: “Skills, knowledge and technology for all - Ensure comprehensive capacity development and equitable access to data, information, knowledge and technology across all aspects of ocean science and for all stakeholders.”³ Development of data and computational systems will support the other challenges that require improving understanding, generating new knowledge, and enhancing predictive capacity. Additionally, there is a need to evaluate and quantify the quality and usability of various data and models.

Connections to Ocean-Shots, UN Ocean Decade Actions, and U.S. Ocean Priorities

Nearly 10 Ocean-Shots (see Figure 2.1), the UN Ocean Decade Implementation Plan, and UN Ocean Decade–endorsed actions specifically addressed and helped guide the committee’s development of this foundational theme (see Table 2.2). The submissions received ranged from digital integration of ocean observing systems to ocean exploration using AI. This theme also directly addresses three of the five immediate research needs identified by the National Science and Technology Council’s (NSTC’s) U.S. Decadal Vision for the oceans (SOST, 2018):

1. Fully integrating data-intensive approaches in Earth system science,
2. Advancing monitoring and predictive modeling capabilities, and
3. Improving data integration and interoperability for decision-making.

Potential Research Elements

• Develop a new vision for ocean data that enables users to design and deploy knowledge services that meet their needs with greater flexibility than existing options by
  • identifying principles and a framework that will enable adaptive and flexible approaches to the management of our ocean, with a particular focus on democratization of and open access to user-created knowledge services;
  • identifying best practices for evaluating quality and fostering quantification of data and model uncertainty; and

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³ See https://www.oceandecade.org/challenges.

• forging partnerships with ongoing European Union and global data efforts;
• forging partnerships with major cloud providers; and
• forging partnerships with commercial ocean, weather, and climate data providers.

It will be important to demonstrate the utility of such data, including economic, social, and scientific values as well as information about the level of accuracy and quantification of uncertainty for use in various applications. For example, there could be an accuracy indicator for data that are informative for understanding and addressing climate change.

Potential Next Steps

Following the initial workshop on An Inclusive and Equitable Ocean, a workshop will be held to bring together a broad spectrum of key public- and private-sector players and other participants in the ocean data space. The outcomes from this foundational workshop will help to guide the establishment and evolution of the data component for each topical theme. Specific goals of these workshops will include the following:

• Develop strategies to improve coordination of domestic and international efforts in the ocean data landscape, particularly around data governance, and the required cyberinfrastructure.
• Develop a pathway toward platforms that enable decision-makers, journalists, the public, and scientists/analysts to readily visualize, analyze, and develop tools and services for holistic approaches to ocean sustainability.
• Identify data strategies and services that support new approaches and capabilities for ocean sustainability and management and ensure openness and engagement with a broad and diverse community. Particular attention should be paid to lowering technical and financial barriers to access data, models, and knowledge services.
• In concert with An Inclusive and Equitable Ocean, incorporate strategies to relate place-based and qualitative knowledge to the more quantitative and large-scale, big data approaches and ways to incorporate different types of data, considering different types of evidence that are important for the co-creation of knowledge.
• Develop potential guidelines for
  • co-designing data policy protocols to support and scale data sharing by partners;
  • building on existing data governance frameworks to create high-level guidelines that inform ongoing efforts to liberate and use ocean data in effective and equitable ways; and

• developing tools and services to increase the potential application of the data, with an emphasis on user-centered design and knowledge services.
• Develop an understanding of hardware and software requirements to enable an advanced ocean data ecosystem that spans high-performance, cloud, and edge computing and accelerates the flow from data acquisition to data-driven services.
• Identify specific data system needs and obstacles for each topical theme.

Defining Success

The committee’s vision is to create a platform, or network of platforms, that enables connectivity and builds trust among developers and users. Unlike previous efforts, the focus is on creating open, shareable, and accessible networks, rather than on the technologies of computation and storage which will inevitably evolve. By the end of the UN Ocean Decade, the committee envisions a network that connects the unconnected, truly engaging those who need knowledge services for ensuring a healthy ocean with those who can create those services. This will create a new era of scalability and flexibility, enabling new solutions to be developed and deployed rapidly rather than relying on the static and inflexible systems of today that are designed primarily to address specific research questions.

TOPICAL THEMES

The Ocean Revealed

Overview of Theme

Understanding fundamental ocean processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the carbon pump, food web dynamics) is the key to developing sustainable approaches to the many human uses of the ocean and its resources. Advancements in scientific understanding have often followed technological advancements in the ability to observe, from telescopes for exploring the universe to electron microscopes for visualizing large molecules and minute biological structures. In Earth sciences, sensors deployed from satellites and airplanes have provided a global perspective through remarkable images of terrestrial and atmospheric processes that have revolutionized our understanding of Earth’s processes. While this technology has revealed an increasingly comprehensive picture of the ocean’s surface, features beneath the surface cannot be seen because water attenuates the signals detected by traditional remote sensing. To overcome these constraints, some underwater observing systems take advantage of the efficient propagation of sound in water and use acoustic sensors.

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⁴ See https://www.goosocean.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=283&Itemid=441.

⁵ See https://argo.ucsd.edu.

applications and, in the context of the UN Ocean Decade, focused on supporting sustainable development. The Ocean Revealed will focus on the following two major components.

New technologies and approaches.

Implementation of acoustic observations and services will enable the capture of both a synoptic and a long-term picture of ocean processes. In contrast to electromagnetic waves, which may penetrate underwater a few hundred meters at best, sound can propagate for hundreds of thousands of meters and thus can serve as our observational eyes and ears. Because of the pivotal role of sound in our understanding of physical acoustics in the ocean, a myriad of both passive and active acoustic sensors and sensing systems have been developed. However, these sensors have often been deployed locally without a national or global overarching framework. A coordinated acoustic observation network, leveraging existing undersea infrastructure, would provide the ability to conduct ubiquitous sensing of critical ocean variables with a mapped seafloor that provides a complete geospatial context. These observations would provide the opportunity to derive transformative insights into key ocean and seafloor processes that are essential for maintaining a sustainable ocean. Biologists have begun employing acoustic methods to study aggregations of minute plankton, monitor fish populations, and conduct behavioral studies of whales—a species that uses sound to communicate over large distances. Additionally, a global acoustic network tied to existing cable infrastructure offers transformative possibilities in terms of underwater communications and services, increasing the potential for the development of an acoustic localization network (e.g., underwater global positioning system).

Also highlighted in the Ocean-Shots was the transformative potential of environmental deoxyribonucleic acid (eDNA), and for marine microbes, other biomolecular “omic” techniques such as transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics (Samuel et al., 2021). The development of eDNA techniques offers another example of an innovative technology with the potential to bring broad new insights into ocean biology. DNA isolated from a small volume of seawater (i.e., eDNA) reveals the presence of millions of microbes and many hundreds of eukaryotic species. These samples can reveal the presence of otherwise undetected species and provide an indication of their abundance as well as the biological activity of microbes. Further development of this technology spans applications such as fish stock assessment and detection of invasive species to new approaches for monitoring marine protected areas and restoration projects, rapidly assessing changing microbial responses and potential impacts of oil spills, and uncovering the habitats and habits of rare or stealthy species. As a sensitive tool for assessing marine biodiversity, eDNA approaches could help scientists characterize marine ecosystem composition and dynamics that will be critical for future management of marine resources in a rapidly changing environment.

processes. The time scales of ocean ecosystems are often a day or less, yet a satellite might be able to observe them only every few days. Variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) happen on weekly to century time scales, but sustained observations are only a few decades old, with observations only now starting in some regions. And many critical areas of the ocean (e.g., the Southern Ocean and Arctic) are only sparsely observed except by satellites and small but growing numbers of under-ice profilers. Yet, new technologies again show promise to extend observing systems to sense the ocean at the required time and space scales—this too will be a key component of design.

Through thoughtful and coordinated design and application, these and other new technologies will open up the deep ocean, the Arctic and Southern Oceans, and other “dark” ocean regions and parameters to new levels of study and understanding. By illuminating the properties of the ocean beneath the surface, researchers will generate a better understanding of how the ocean supports human communities and influences the critical properties of our planet. This fundamental information forms the basis for the development of sustainable practices and will facilitate achievement of the goals of other topical themes.

The Ocean Revealed calls for the coordinated development and deployment of new techniques, technologies, and approaches, including citizen/community science where possible, to measure a range of ocean variables (biological, chemical, and physical) in understudied ocean regions to provide the critical understanding of ocean processes needed for sustainable development. It builds on the potential of leveraging existing cable infrastructure and developing an enhanced understanding of the ocean’s acoustic environment and the rapid development of eDNA as a remote sensor of ecosystem dynamics. Processes that could be studied with these new technologies include heat, mass, and biogeochemical tracer transport; circulation and mixing; ecosystem health; and marine organism biodiversity and behavior. Each of these have relevance for many environmental priorities such as climate change, ecosystem-based management, commercial and recreational activities, marine hazards, and maritime safety.

Decade Challenges and Outcomes Addressed

This theme addresses a number of UN Ocean Decade challenges including Challenge 7: “Expand the Global Ocean Observing System - Ensure a sustainable ocean observing system across all ocean basins that delivers accessible, timely, and actionable data and information to all users” and Challenge 8: “Create a digital representation of the Ocean - Through multi-stakeholder collaboration, develop a comprehensive digital representation of the ocean, including a dynamic ocean map, which provides free and open access for exploring, discovering, and visualizing past, current, and future ocean conditions in a manner relevant to diverse stakeholders.”⁶ This theme also addresses many of the UN Ocean Decade

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⁶ See https://www.oceandecade.org/challenges.

outcomes, most directly Outcome 4: “A predicted ocean where society understands and can respond to changing ocean conditions.” It also addresses Outcome 2: “A healthy and resilient ocean where marine ecosystems are understood, protected, restored and managed”; Outcome 3: “A productive ocean supporting sustainable food supply and a sustainable ocean economy”; and Outcome 5: “A safe ocean where life and livelihoods are protected from ocean-related hazards” (UNESCO-IOC, 2021a).

Connections to Ocean-Shots, UN Ocean Decade Actions, and U.S. Ocean Priorities

The Ocean Revealed builds on more than 30 Ocean-Shot concepts and a number of UN Ocean Decade–endorsed actions listed in Table 2.3. This theme is further supported by other decade-related resources including NSTC’s U.S. Decadal Vision for America’s oceans, which underscores the importance of new technologies including acoustic measurements for exploration, discovery, and long-term monitoring and advancement of the blue economy, and highlights the importance of understanding the changing conditions in the Arctic.

Potential Research Elements

The coordinated development and application of new and emerging sensing techniques and technologies that take advantage of autonomous systems, which leverage ML and AI to map, characterize, and understand the underwater environment, includes the following:

• Development of inexpensive sensors and platforms for ubiquitous deployment.
• Monitoring of vast ocean areas through the development and deployment of passive and active acoustic sensors.
• The complete mapping of the seafloor by the end of the UN Ocean Decade to provide a geospatial context for all other measurements.
• The development of underwater location and communications services, accessing power and communication services through existing submarine telecommunications cable infrastructure. This infrastructure would support the expanded deployment of biogeochemical, under-ice, and full ocean depth autonomous sensors worldwide; active acoustic observations of biomass volumes, marine organism distribution, and behavior; mass, heat, and biogeochemical tracer transport and mixing; and seafloor topography. These observations can be made at a range of scales from microstructure to basinwide.

NOTES: See Appendix A, Table A.3, for a description of each. GEBCO, General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans; IOGP, International Association of Oil & Gas Producers.

^a See https://www.oceandecade.org/decade-actions.

• Capture of global biodiversity and fisheries and marine resources through internationally coordinated programs of eDNA sampling that may also involve citizen/community science.
• A coherent plan for combining and fusing data across subdisciplines for comprehensive ocean sensing and monitoring for hazards such as earthquakes and submarine landslides, which may trigger tsunamis; climate indicators such as the strength of the AMOC, acoustic and eDNA techniques for monitoring exploited fish populations, and biodiversity “baselines”; biogeochemical sensors to detect and monitor ocean acidification and deoxygenation; and development of new sensors and techniques for monitoring illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, plastic pollution, and impacts of future seabed mining activities.
• Bioprospecting for new or understudied species possessing medicinally beneficial compounds.

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⁷ Use of DNA sequence homology to construct a taxonomic tree.

passive acoustic sensors and take advantage of existing cabled infrastructure to provide power, communications, and positioning.

Such an observation “system of systems” would enable the following:

• Climate services to enhance prediction (reduce uncertainties) and to enable mitigation of and adaptation to hazards (e.g., sea level rise, marine heatwaves, and other climatic events);
• Sub-seasonal to seasonal weather forecasts based on enhanced understanding of ocean and atmospheric coupling;
• More accurate forecasting and early warning systems to address maritime and coastal hazards and safety, including water level elevation, as a consequence of hurricanes and tsunamis;
• Long-term monitoring of ocean hydrographic (thermal and saline) structure and sensitivity of marine organisms to hydrographic changes;
• Conservation of biodiversity through detection and monitoring of species; and
• Ecosystem-based fisheries management through enhanced monitoring of ecosystem components in addition to the target species.

The Restored and Sustainable Ocean

Overview of Theme

The ocean is subject to many pressures from human activities that change ocean ecosystems. Examples of such pressures include the direct and indirect effects of fishing; alteration of habitat from shoreline and port development, navigational dredging, sand, and other mineral extraction; pollution by terrestrial run-off of chemical and plastic waste; and the impacts of carbon dioxide emissions, which cause ocean acidification, elevated water temperatures, and deoxygenation. The impacts of these pressures vary across ocean ecosystems, disproportionately affecting coral reefs, coastal marshes, and the rapidly warming and melting Arctic.

Human communities rely on the many ecosystem services provided by the ocean and with human populations increasing, the dependence on ocean resources is likely to increase, in particular for renewable energy, deep-sea minerals, and both wild caught and farmed seafood. Recognizing the growing demand for marine resources, the international community has promoted policies to protect and sustainably use the biodiversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction, including the deep sea (IOC-UNESCO, 2020). Ensuring that the ocean will continue to meet these needs will require both restoration of what has been lost or degraded and sustainable management of ocean biodiversity and productivity to support food production and other uses, such as marine bioprospecting for novel compounds effective in treating human diseases. To achieve the UN Ocean Decade

outcomes of a healthy, resilient, and productive ocean; the U.S. Decadal Vision of promoting economic prosperity and safeguarding human health; and the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy goals of protecting effectively, producing sustainably, and prospering equitably requires both restoration and effective management (Stuchtey et al., 2020). Meeting these goals is made more difficult by the fact that the changing Earth climate system is altering the composition and distribution of marine ecosystems such that ocean ecosystems are “on the move” with consequent changes in productivity. Although in some cases reducing the activity causing the decline is sufficient for recovery, in other situations active interventions will be required to restore habitats and ecosystems and ensure their resilience.

Restoration of coastal systems, such as mangroves, seagrasses, coastal marshes, coral reefs, and marginal sea ice, is a high priority because they provide a number of key ecosystem services such as nursery habitat for a variety of fishes and protection from storm surges. Due to human activities, these habitats have experienced devastating loss and degradation in some areas and a science-based restoration approach will be required to recover these valuable ecosystem services. Coral reefs are a high-profile example of a marine ecosystem requiring both restoration and protection. Coral reefs provide a suite of benefits to society through coastal protection (buffering of wave energy and storm surge), productive fisheries, tourism and recreation, and high levels of biodiversity. Many stressors affect coral reefs, with a warming climate posing the most existential threat (NASEM, 2019). New approaches for enhancing the capacity of corals to survive in a warmer world in concert with a reduction in other stressors, such as pollutants and unsustainable fishing practices, promise a pathway toward maintaining these ecosystems for future generations.

Sustainable food production is a critical ecosystem service provided by ocean ecosystems. The ocean supports commercial and subsistence fishing, mariculture, and even terrestrial livestock production. The ocean is vital in meeting the nutritional needs of many Indigenous and disadvantaged communities who often rely on locally sourced foods. Ocean food production includes three distinct areas: commercial fisheries, mariculture, and feedstocks for aquaculture and agriculture.

Commercial fisheries production.

The cumulative impact of changing environmental conditions; failures in resource management by coastal nations; and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing in international waters threatens to reduce the contribution of wild-caught fisheries to global food production and security. Additionally, with changing ocean productivity and shifts in distribution, the equilibrium assumptions that have underpinned fisheries management are now in question and a comprehensive re-evaluation is warranted. A particular challenge is to improve our understanding and deployment of approaches to realize the complex social-ecological systems that characterize fisheries. Understanding the intricacies of fisheries management will require new partnerships and new frameworks.

conditions.”⁸ This theme is relevant to Outcome 1: “A clean ocean where sources of pollution are identified and reduced or removed”; Outcome 2: “A healthy and resilient ocean where marine ecosystems are understood, protected, restored and managed”; and Outcome 3: “A productive ocean supporting sustainable food supply and a sustainable ocean economy.” However, the theme also addresses other outcomes, including Outcome 4: “A predicted ocean where society understands and can respond to changing ocean conditions” and Outcome 7: “An inspiring and engaging ocean where society understands and values the ocean in relation to human well-being and sustainable development” (UNESCO-IOC, 2021a). The ocean delivers an enormous array of services to the blue economy, and its health is invaluable to the planet. Moreover, the beauty and wonder of the ocean provide a cultural resource that inspires the arts and offers respite for many who enjoy beaches, swimming, diving, fishing, and other water activities.

Connections to Ocean-Shots, UN Ocean Decade Actions, and U.S. Ocean Priorities

The Restored and Sustainable Ocean encompasses ideas from approximately 20 Ocean-Shots (see Figure 2.2) and complements many of the UN-endorsed actions (see Table 2.4). It is consistent with several priorities of NSTC’s U.S. Decadal Vision (SOST, 2018). A selection of some of the most relevant Ocean-Shots and UN Ocean Decade activities is included in Table 2.4.

Potential Research Elements

• Utilize observing tools and systems from The Ocean Revealed to measure ecological processes and enable the linking of ecological and physical models with socioeconomic models;
• Enable the exploration of “what if” scenarios to understand natural and technological risks and uncertainties with different policy interventions, including the role of marine spatial planning as a means to reduce these risks, for both developed and developing countries;
• Scale up new nature-based solutions (NBSs) to improve health and increase resilience of ocean ecosystems; and
• Investigate the cumulative impacts of land-based pollution, including plastic waste, microplastics, and fertilizer run-off, on ecosystem health and resilience of urban seas.

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⁸ See https://www.oceandecade.org/challenges.

NOTES: See Appendix A, Table A.4, for a description of each. NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; NSF, National Science Foundation.

^a See https://www.oceandecade.org/decade-actions.

More specific research elements are organized under the following categories.

• Restoration of critical habitat:
  • adopt new technological applications and approaches to restore lost habitat that is critical to sustain certain ecosystems (e.g., coral restoration, new approaches to loss of sea ice and mitigation of consequences for charismatic megafauna, mangrove replanting/recovery);
  • develop advanced propagation and transplantation techniques for key species required for restoring habitat and depleted species; and
  • develop and test novel, low-cost approaches for monitoring vulnerable habitats and restoration projects for identifying problems and developing solutions.
• Food security:
  • address the challenges of developing a sustainable mariculture industry that improves the livelihoods and resilience of coastal communities without harming the environment,
  • address the challenges of meeting the growing demands for marine resources in aquaculture and livestock operations,
  • optimize marine transportation assets and shipping routes to connect sources with needs for food supply and minimize impacts on local food sources, and
  • develop and assess ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management that can be considered within a broader ecosystem-based approach and that are resilient to climate change.
• Nature-based solutions:
  • explore an implementation framework for the 2022 National Academies report A Research Strategy for Ocean-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Sequestration;
  • develop lessons learned from existing efforts to design resilient coastal protection that are mainly comprised of NBSs;

• enhance beneficial uses of dredge materials to provide a win-win for maritime transportation and ecosystem restoration; and
• measure the ecological, economic, and social benefits from Marine Protected Areas to better ensure that gains are equitably distributed and resources are protected effectively.
• Ocean energy production:
  • characterize the diversity and dynamics of seafloor ecosystems globally but with an initial focus on areas targeted for deep-sea mining and offshore energy development (e.g., wind turbines and hydrokinetic energy facilities),
  • estimate recovery rates for a variety of ecosystem components from disturbance by ocean energy production activities, and
  • increase understanding of the connectivity of the deep sea with mesopelagic and surface ecosystems.

Potential Next Steps

The workshop for this theme should include separate sessions on each sub-theme: coastal systems, food security, and ocean biodiversity. This would be followed by an integrative session to identify commonalities across these topics. The goal of the workshop will be to identify research opportunities that will help design and evaluate solutions that meet the three goals: to protect effectively, produce sustainably, and prosper equitably. Potential topics could include the following:

• Linking of new classes of ecosystem measurements to coupled natural–human management models to better inform ecosystem-based management; • Incorporation of Indigenous knowledge into the restoration and protection of coastal ecosystems and into the fishing and aquaculture processes that rely on these ecosystems;
• Diversification of participation, target species, and production systems in the aquaculture industry;
• Adaptive management of social-ecological systems that enables both ecosystem and economic services in a changing ocean to ensure resilient coastal communities;
• Identification of educational opportunities to promote ocean literacy and equitable access to ocean science and resources;
• Demonstration projects for ecosystem-based resource management and habitat restoration to reduce coastal flood impacts; and
• Strategies for fishery management that incorporate climate-driven environmental change to foster sustainable practices and food security.

Indigenous nations to collectively identify population vulnerabilities and information needs. Through this cooperative approach, improved predictions of weather and climate will be more integrated into community planning for, and response to, more frequent extreme events like flooding, heat, or drought. Communities will benefit from new global storm-resolving models and decision-support systems to anticipate and effectively react to flooding from severe storms. These Earth system models will require incorporation of ocean processes and observations through advanced data assimilation to improve prediction capabilities. Improved multi-hazard risk communication will require baseline and event-based data collection on social, cultural, and institutional factors influencing how a range of communities use and interpret forecast information.

Climate mitigation.

With the broad international agreement⁹ that avoidance of severe climate impacts will require limiting global warming to no more than 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018), the challenge is to develop technologies to achieve this goal. This will require first and foremost phasing out fossil fuels and developing renewable energy sources supplemented by active efforts to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Offshore wind energy is becoming a mature industry, with hydrokinetic energy conversion mostly in the experimental phase. Decarbonization of the energy infrastructure will increase reliance on rare earth metals for batteries. These metals have been found on the seafloor in some regions, leading to an interest in deep-sea mining.

Ocean-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and sequestration strategies have been proposed, ranging from physical, to chemical, to biological approaches for enhancing carbon dioxide uptake in the coastal and open ocean and storage of sequestered carbon dioxide in the seafloor. This is an early, but active, area of research and technology development. The 2022 National Academies report A Research Strategy for Ocean-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Sequestration provides a detailed assessment of research needs for ocean-based CDR approaches. Importantly, it addresses uncertainties; potential ecological threats; and the social, legal, and ethical contexts associated with each approach. The report lays out a comprehensive research agenda for the coming decade.

It will be equally important to develop sustainable practices for regions hosting new energy development, deep-sea mining, and/or CDR. For this to be informed by the best available science will require comprehensive measurement, quantification, and understanding of “baseline” (i.e., present-day and reconstructed past) conditions, so that impacts can be detected through monitoring. This will also make it possible to anticipate changes caused by extraction of minerals and develop ways in which to sustainably manage or mitigate such changes.

Ocean Solutions for Climate Resilience will examine two components of the extensive intersection between the ocean and climate: (1) the urgent need

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⁹ See Paris Agreement, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf.

to anticipate and plan for coastal change in response to sea level rise and stronger, slower moving, and more frequent coastal storms (e.g., Gori et al., 2022; NASEM, 2018a, 2021, 2022a); and (2) climate mitigation strategies including expansion of renewable energy generation and development of CDR and sequestration approaches. To achieve resilience, climate mitigation and adaptation efforts are required, considering pace, scale, feasibility, and innovation while also addressing the potential environmental impacts and developing sustainable practices for implementation.

Decade Challenges and Outcomes Addressed

Ocean Solutions for Climate Resilience addresses several of the UN Ocean Decade challenges and outcomes including Challenge 5: “Unlock ocean-based solutions to climate change - Enhance understanding of the ocean-climate nexus and generate knowledge and solutions to mitigate, adapt and build resilience to the effects of climate change across all geographies and at all scales, and to improve services including predictions for the ocean, climate and weather”; Challenge 6: “Increase community resilience to ocean hazards - Enhance multi-hazard early warning services for all geophysical, ecological, biological, weather, climate and anthropogenic related ocean and coastal hazards, and mainstream community preparedness and resilience”; Outcome 2: “A healthy and resilient ocean where marine ecosystems are understood, protected, restored and managed”; Outcome 3: “A productive ocean supporting sustainable food supply and a sustainable ocean economy”; and Outcome 4: “A predicted ocean where society understands and can respond to changing ocean conditions” (UNESCO-IOC, 2021a).¹⁰

Connections to Ocean-Shots, UN Ocean Decade Actions, and U.S. Ocean Priorities

This theme encompasses ideas from more than 10 Ocean-Shots and overlaps with multiple UN Ocean Decade–endorsed actions and NSTC-identified U.S. ocean priorities. A selection of some of the most relevant Ocean-Shots and UN Ocean Decade activities is included in the table below (see Table 2.5).

Potential Research Elements

To address the scientific challenges described in this theme will require inter- and multidisciplinary teams drawn from the natural and social sciences and engineering. This requirement for interdisciplinary research is recognized in many relevant National Academies reports (e.g., NAS et al., 2005; NASEM,

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¹⁰ See https://www.oceandecade.org/challenges.

2022a,b) and in the UN Ocean Decade Implementation Plan. Research could be organized under the following three categories.

Mitigation.

By 2030, develop sustainable practices for offshore energy development, deep-sea mining for critical minerals used in renewable energy technologies, and the application of ocean-based carbon dioxide reduction and sequestration strategies to meet climate goals. A diversity of research topics would be included:

• Examine “the interactions and trade-offs between ocean CDR, terrestrial CDR, greenhouse gas abatement and mitigation, and climate adaptation, including the potential of mitigation deterrence” (NASEM, 2022a).
• Enhance the ocean’s natural ability for carbon capture.
• Leverage natural carbon capture technologies (e.g., coastal blue carbon) and habitat restoration to preserve depleted, and often endangered, ocean species at risk from a variety of environmental stressors, including climate change.
• Promote research into ocean-based renewable energy production (including offshore wind, wave energy, tidal energy, ocean-based solar photovoltaics, ocean current, and ocean thermal energy conversion) that includes assessment of the social and environmental impacts and comprehensive analyses of material flows involved in renewable technologies.
• Develop a comprehensive research agenda for seabed mining that includes monitoring, and analysis to develop a “baseline” understanding of deep-sea biology and ecosystems. This should include an assessment of the mineral resources, technologies for extraction and their environmental impact, and alternatives for energy storage.

Adaptation.

By 2030, develop an accurate picture of the coupled natural–human coastal system, with an emphasis on coastal flooding risks and exposure of vulnerable communities, and environmentally sustainable, equitable, and just adaptation strategies for responding to rising seas and increased coastal flooding. This research has a range of ingredients:

• Understand the social-economic and population dynamics of coastal communities (behavioral economics and sociology) as well as the consequences of migration and relocation movements.
• Assess the impact of human interventions (e.g., construction of levees, canals, and sea walls; dredging), as well as natural resource conservation and restoration activities.
• Characterize uncertainties from “far field” sea level rise, including ice sheet mass loss, ocean warming, decadal climate variability and circulation changes, and low-frequency tidal cycles.

• Characterize uncertainties in current-generation coastal flood maps (bathymetry and topography), which will require
  • an improved and unified time-varying geodetic reference system across the ocean-land continuum (NASEM, 2020a);
  • improved flood-plain mapping;
  • recognition of the time-evolving nature of the geomorphology of the coastline and coastal zone; and
  • understanding of landscape evolution (e.g., river sediment deposition, river deltas, barrier islands), and its response to sea level rise and climate change.
• Characterize uncertainty in changes in extreme precipitation events (e.g., slow-moving and increased-intensity hurricanes, atmospheric rivers).
• Overcome the lack of quantification of risks from compounding effects (superposition from different processes).
• Reduce uncertainty in knowledge regarding the most vulnerable communities.
• Improve understanding of coastal infrastructure at risk (e.g., industry, energy sector, military).
• Increase coordination across federal, state, tribal, and local agencies.
• Improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal weather and ocean numerical prediction within an Earth system framework.
• Expand and advance public–private partnerships for decision support.

Sustained monitoring, simulation, and open science.

Following the paradigm that you cannot manage (or even understand) what you cannot observe, an important component is the completion and maintenance of a comprehensive observing system, along with formal synthesis frameworks in order to monitor, quantify, detect, understand, and predict human-induced system changes. This addresses information needs in other themes, in particular The Restored and Sustainable Ocean and The Ocean Revealed. An important element will be the integration of Indigenous, local, and social-economic knowledge systems. Together, this observing system would provide a comprehensive basis for devising ways to mitigate, manage, or adapt to anticipated changes.

Potential Next Steps

A workshop with four parallel sessions is proposed to address the various components of this theme:

• Assessment of the benefits, risks, and sustainable scale potential for ocean-based CDR.
• Evaluation of the status and opportunities (technological and economic) of ocean-based renewable energies, both in U.S. waters and worldwide,

including socioeconomic impediments to their implementation. Topics could include technological progress and transferable technology at the global level; environmental trade-offs of renewable energy that are sustainable and maintain a healthy ocean; and feasibility, export market, job creation, and environmental impact for suitable coastal zones around the world.

• Development of the scientific basis, engineering solutions, and social-economic impacts of coastal adaptation, including approaches to respond to sea level rise and coastal flooding. Topics will be informed by relevant National Academies reports on coastal systems with a particular focus on information-sharing with vulnerable (and often low-income) communities in order to co-develop and implement effective adaptation strategies.
• Development of strategies for assessing and closing critical gaps of a global ocean observing system for climate. Topics could focus on the sustained continuation of existing critical components of the ocean component of the Global Climate Observing System and the closing of critical gaps in the Global Ocean Observing System.
• Creation of an Ocean–Climate Partnership or collective impact organization (NASEM, 2017, 2020b) “to increase engagement and coordination of the ocean observation science community with nonprofits, philanthropic organizations, academia, U.S. federal agencies, and the commercial sector” (Weller et al., 2019).

Defining Success

By 2030, the social, cultural, and institutional drivers needed for a climate resilient future will be fully integrated in the scientific data and tools to enable an adaptable and resilient coastal zone. This transdisciplinary approach will do the following:

• Allow for a common frame of reference for the development of (1) flood/inundation maps that meet the variety of needs of state and federal agencies, and (2) coastal flooding projections that will account for multi-hazard risks (e.g., storm surge and heavy rain) and the geomorphic transformation of the coastal zone under a range of climate change scenarios; • Inform coastal planning that balances the adaptation of the communities and built systems disrupted by rising seas and extreme events with the economic drivers that encourage coastal development;
• Enable engagement of highly vulnerable U.S. coastal communities in the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies tailored to their particular needs;
• Identify opportunities and challenges for ocean renewable energy; and
• Implement co-development of knowledge and solutions for coastal

communities, particularly those at high risk of and low capacity for adaptation.

By 2030, a comprehensive research program will provide a robust understanding of the merits, efficacy, limitations, and environmental risks of ocean-based CDR. The research will provide a more complete understanding of the ethical, legal, and social context for ocean CDR and sequestration approaches. A second desired outcome related to natural carbon sequestration by the ocean is a better understanding of the potential changes in the ocean’s capacity for uptake of carbon dioxide under a range of climate change scenarios.

By 2030, ocean renewable energy will provide a substantial fraction of the nation’s electricity demand while balancing the interests of other critical ocean values (e.g., marine conservation, shipping, fisheries). This will include maturation of technologies; scalable deployment; cost-effective operations; and mitigation of environmental impacts for offshore wind, ocean thermal energy conversion, and hydrokinetic energy development.

Healthy Urban Seas

Overview of Theme

Semi-enclosed coastal seas bordering urban centers exemplify the complex intersection and interaction of land and sea with the many human-induced changes to the ocean. They are commonly coincident with zones of intense human activity and can be impacted by polluted wastewater, groundwater, and river outflow subject to changes in weather, climate, and land use far upstream. The density of activities surrounding these urban seas (embayments and estuaries, including watershed impacts from the large river catchment regions) can adversely affect air and water quality, natural resources, and public health. Levels of pollutants introduced into marginal seas can be orders of magnitude greater than those introduced to the open oceans (Onink et al., 2021; UNESCO, n.d.).

Coastal areas generally have high sensitivity to climate change including sea level rise and coastal flooding, rising water temperatures, acidification, and coastal storms. These heavily populated urban seas, typically within marginalized communities that are disproportionately impacted by environmental degradation, represent the most intense and complex sites of human–ocean interaction on the planet. Many of these urban seas support extensive wild capture fisheries and emerging mariculture and aquaculture programs that help meet the increasing demand for fresh local seafood. They may be viewed as global ocean “hot spots” within a more broadly distributed planet-wide framework of anthropogenic and climate impacts. Coastal urban areas are intensely populated not just with people but with critical infrastructure. Port facilities, offshore energy, material extraction platforms, stormwater and sewer outlets, near-shore roads and rail, utilities, and

communications are examples of the infrastructure that connects communities to the ocean. It is critical to understand the symbiotic relationship among the community, the built environment, and the ocean with investments in more resilient infrastructure.

Focused application of new observing technologies to comprehensively monitor and model these coupled human–ocean ecosystems will reveal rates and patterns of environmental change, as well as document the efficacy of recovery tactics, pollution reduction strategies, and protection efforts. The latter will contribute to improvements in remediation and conservation activities for greater long-term sustainability. A common framework is needed within which the dynamics, restoration trajectories, and management interventions in multiple urban seas could be compared to provide greater insight into the functioning of these complex environments.

The high concentration of anthropogenic activities in and adjacent to these waters creates natural laboratories to study the intense chemical and biological gradients generated by high-density populations in these semi-enclosed marine ecosystems. They are sites of extensive science and data acquisition, such as the long-term studies of the Chesapeake Bay, Puget Sound, and Mississippi River Delta. Furthermore, ports can be partners in identifying low- or no emission solutions and protecting ecosystems. Ships and other vessels provide ready-to-deploy monitoring platforms. They are ideal settings for innovative testing of novel approaches to sensing and modeling of changing ecosystems because of their ease of access and proximity to research facilities. From a computational perspective, these contained basins will allow greater facility for creating a “digital twin”¹¹ and testing the validity and accuracy of a range of models for simulating the natural, built, and socioeconomic environments, as well as their interactions. Inputs and outputs would be more readily measured and managed because the constrained scale allows the deployment of fixed observatories and sensors on mobile assets. Connected by proximity, interdisciplinary teams of scientific, technical, policy, management, Indigenous, and stakeholder communities could organize to address the multiple challenges facing these densely populated and heavily used ocean areas and co-develop responses.

Healthy Urban Seas will focus on the activities and changes in these constrained and highly populated regions, all of which are magnified by climate change. Careful design of experiments to capture and understand the impacts of human activities will yield information on mechanisms that could be employed for increasing the health and resilience of urban seas. These large population centers also offer an opportunity for community engagement in problems that are directly relevant to their well-being and sustainability. Owing to the proximity to

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¹¹ A digital twin is a computational model that is dynamically updated with observations of the environment such that it provides a virtual representation of the structure, context, and behavior of the physical system. It is designed as a tool to explore potential outcomes of a variety of interventions to inform decisions (see Glossary).

the ocean, ocean-related issues could be brought into school curricula and public events more easily, involve diverse communities, and be brought to the attention of policy makers.

This theme will draw on most aspects of the foundational and other topical themes. It has the potential to greatly increase understanding of the linkages between the natural system and sociocultural change through expanded collection of data within crucial temporal and spatial frameworks. It offers a superb arena in which to develop cross-cultural awareness of the ocean at all levels of public engagement and establish the crucial roles that oceans play in past, present, and future human well-being. This theme has important cultural and environmental impacts on both policy and behavior, and its success will depend on close coordination among many elements of society including industry, military, academic, health, philanthropic, and community-based sectors. The infrastructure and approaches established to monitor and understand urban seas in the United States could be used to model other systems around the world and form the basis for global collaborative projects. And, perhaps most importantly, a concerted effort to engage young learners from all backgrounds in “backyard” student science activities can bring the critical importance of maintaining ocean health to those who may not otherwise be aware of the wonders of the ocean.

Decade Challenges and Outcomes Addressed

Healthy Urban Seas could contribute to many (if not all) of the UN Ocean Decade challenges and outcomes. In particular, this theme addresses Challenge 2: “Protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity - Understand the effects of multiple stressors on ocean ecosystems and develop solutions to monitor, protect, manage and restore ecosystems and their biodiversity under changing environmental, social and climate conditions”; Challenge 4: “Develop a sustainable and equitable ocean economy - Generate knowledge, support innovation and develop solutions for equitable and sustainable development of the ocean economy under changing environmental, social and climate conditions”; Challenge 5: “Unlock ocean-based solutions to climate change - Enhance understanding of the ocean-climate nexus and generate knowledge and solutions to mitigate, adapt and build resilience to the effects of climate change across all geographies and at all scales, and to improve services including predictions for the ocean, climate and weather”; Challenge 6: “Increase community resilience to ocean hazards - Enhance multi-hazard early warning services for all geophysical, ecological, biological, weather-, climate- and anthropogenic-related ocean and coastal hazards, and mainstream community preparedness and resilience”; Challenge 9: “Skills, knowledge and technology for all - Ensure comprehensive capacity development and equitable access to data, information, knowledge and technology across all aspects of ocean science and for all stakeholders”; and Challenge 10: “Change humanity’s relationship with the ocean - Ensure that the multiple values and

services of the ocean for human well-being, culture and sustainable development are widely understood, and identify and overcome barriers to behaviour change required for a step change in humanity’s relationship with the ocean.”¹² Most obvious is its relevance to Outcome 2: “A healthy and resilient ocean where marine ecosystems are understood, protected, restored and managed.” However, the theme also addresses Outcome 4: “A predicted ocean where society understands and can respond to changing ocean conditions”; Outcome 5: “A safe ocean where life and livelihoods are protected from ocean-related hazards”; Outcome 6: “An accessible ocean with open and equitable access to data, information and technology and innovation”; and Outcome 7: “An inspiring and engaging ocean where society understands and values the ocean in relation to human well-being and sustainable development” (UNESCO-IOC, 2021a).

Connections to Ocean-Shots, UN Ocean Decade Actions, and U.S. Ocean Priorities

This theme encompasses ideas from more than 10 Ocean-Shots and overlaps with several UN Ocean Decade–endorsed projects, programs, and contributions (see Table 2.6). It also presents a “laboratory” for implementing the foundational themes of An Inclusive and Equitable Ocean and An Ocean of Data.

Potential Research Elements

• Development of an observing system that provides comprehensive coverage of key functional attributes. Elements could include fixed platforms in critical locations, mobile undersea platforms to surveil trouble spots, surface vessels or autonomous platforms, and fleets of specially outfitted drones.
• Improvement in the spatial and temporal monitoring of plastic waste leakage through the application of new technologies, such as remote sensing, autonomous underwater/remotely operated vehicles, sensor advances, passive samplers, and others (see NASEM, 2022c).
• Implementation and evaluation of citizen/community science initiatives, in combination with community-led activities, for data collection, based on individuals or civic infrastructure (e.g., water taxis, ferries, tunnels) as data-collecting actors.
• Development of better methodologies and design guidance for resilient urban infrastructure.
• Characterization and prediction of catastrophic failures of infrastructure particularly as it impacts the health of the ocean.

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¹² See https://www.oceandecade.org/challenges.

• Major stakeholders identified and engaged in monitoring, research, education, and management applications.
• An urban sea defined and understood through observational and modeling efforts, such as the establishment of a digital twin. For example, a well-sourced model could track and predict major environmental changes and their implications for socioeconomic activities. This could inform the design of infrastructure for coastal resilience.
• Measurable improvements in urban sea health through mitigation of pollution sources.
• Development of a community culture that understands the importance of, and plays an active role in, ensuring a safe and healthy ocean through community engagement (ocean cultural literacy).

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