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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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1

Introduction

INTRODUCTION

Petroleum (sometimes referred to as crude oil or simply “oil”) is a fossil fuel that was formed in the Earth’s crust from the remains of plants and marine organisms. Oil, as a source of energy and for chemical synthesis, is critical for the technological and economic growth in the world. Although oil is a finite resource, new sources continue to be discovered. Oil has high energy density and is chemically complex, making it suitable for multiple uses. Although it is available in large quantities in many parts of the world, in recent decades global attention has turned to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and alternative energy sources are also being discovered, developed, and scaled to play larger roles in the global energy economy. Even with an expanding portfolio of energy sources and the global movement toward decarbonization, oil will remain part of the energy and petrochemical mix until other alternatives are available at sufficient scale and are cost competitive. The pace of transition will depend on many factors including government policies and regulatory developments.

In some cases, oil naturally finds its way into the sea through fissures and faults. Often, while the collective volumes are large, individual seeps generally release petroleum slowly enough over hundreds to thousands of years to allow surrounding organisms to avoid, adapt to, and, in some instances, even thrive in their presence (NRC, 2003). In other cases, oil finds its way into the sea in less intrinsic ways, due to anthropogenic activities such as exploration, production, and global transport of oil. Oil is transported many miles through subsea pipelines and on transport vessels to support global fossil fuel demands as well as more general consumer needs.

Oil as it exists naturally in our environment does not always lead to damaging effects. However, oil present in locations, concentrations, timespans, or molecular forms outside its natural existence presents a different story. Recognizing the sources, quantities, and composition of natural and anthropogenic inputs of oil into the sea, and understanding the fate and effects of that oil in the marine environment, are important in order to minimize potential impacts. The application of this knowledge provides the mechanisms to evaluate and respond to potential environmental impacts of oil on ocean ecosystems and move toward a restorative state following both chronic and human-caused episodic events.

Oil is encountered in a variety of forms in daily life. Crude oil and other hydrocarbon liquids are refined into petroleum products used for many different purposes: to power vehicles, heat buildings, lubricate parts, and produce electricity. The petrochemical industry uses petroleum as a raw material, or feedstock, for a long list of products; these products represent important contributions to modern societal needs and wants. As energy reliance shifts to alternative sources, it is not clear how production of petroleum for these other uses may change, but consumption of hydrocarbons for purposes other than energy is small relative to energy use. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the non-combustion uses of fossil fuels account for approximately 7% of total fossil fuel consumption in the United States,¹ and the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates non-energy use of oil at approximately 17% and natural gas at approximately 12% globally (IEA, 2021a). Therefore, energy consumption is the main driver for the current and future demand of petroleum.

1.1 PRESENT AND FUTURE ENERGY NEEDS

1.1.1 World Energy Needs

World energy supply and demand was steadily growing until 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in lockdowns and travel restrictions and, consequently, a drop in energy consumption. Following the reduction in demand,

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¹ See www.eia.gov, “Today in Energy,” April 6, 2018.

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.1 Global share of total energy supply by source, 2019.
NOTE: EJ = exajoules (10¹⁸ joules).
SOURCE: IEA, 2021.

production of worldwide crude oil and natural gas liquids dropped ~7% from 4,617 million tonnes in 2019 to 4,296 million tonnes in 2020 (IEA, 2021).

In 2019, oil and natural gas represented more than 50% of all energy supply and, with the addition of coal, the total hydrocarbon share was 80% of the worldwide energy supply (see Figure 1.1).

In 2020, the United States remained the top producer of both oil and natural gas. Other top oil producers were Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates, and the top natural gas producers were Russia, Iran, China, and Canada (IEA, 2021).

Transportation is the largest consumer of oil globally, using 56% of the total energy share in 2019 (see Figure 1.2).

FIGURE 1.2 Global oil consumption, 2019.
SOURCE: IEA, 2021.

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.3 Global natural gas consumption, 2019.
SOURCE: IEA, 2021.

Industry and residential use are the largest consumers of natural gas, accounting for 67% of total in 2019 (see Figure 1.3).

The global energy landscape has been reconfigured considerably since the publication of Oil in the Sea III in 2003. A major driver for the change has been increased shale oil and gas production in the United States. Offshore oil and gas production share of the total oil and gas production has been declining (see Figure 3.18). Deep-water exploration is expected to further decline as the energy companies’ investment strategies adapt to shifting energy requirements driven by decarbonization efforts.

The worldwide marine transportation flows have changed as a result of U.S. shale production, increased Asian demand, and the introduction of new refinery locations, mainly in the Middle East and Asia. Figures 1.4 and 1.5 illustrate the complex global flows of oil and gas.

FIGURE 1.4 Oil trade flow diagram in million metric tonnes.
NOTE: Width of arrows represents relative volume transported; purple dots represent point of oil origination.
SOURCE: Adapted from BP, 2020.

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.5 Gas trade flow diagrams in million MT.
NOTES: Width of arrows represent relative volume transported. LNG = liquified natural gas.
SOURCE: BP, 2020.

1.1.2 Energy Needs of North America

Petroleum is currently the largest North American energy source. As reported in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (BP, 2021), in 2020 North American petroleum consumption averaged about 20.77 million barrels per day (bbl/d), or 2,967 tonnes per day (t/d). This was the lowest consumption rate since 1995 and the largest annual decrease in petroleum demand on record.² This anomaly can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and is not necessarily reflective of the current trend. The annual differences were most pronounced in jet fuel, which decreased by 40% from 2019 to 2020. For this reason, 2019 numbers (from BP, 2020) are discussed in this section. In 2019, North American petroleum consumption averaged about 23.54 million bbl/d (3,362 t/d), with the transportation sector (including gasoline, distillate fuel, HGLs, and jet fuel) accounting for the largest share (68%) of U.S. petroleum consumption. The breakdown by sector for the United States is shown in Figure 1.6.

In North America, the most consumed petroleum product is gasoline (42% of total consumption), followed by distillate fuel oil (23% of total consumption), hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs) (18% of total consumption), and then jet fuel (6% of total consumption). Distillate fuel oil includes both diesel fuel (used to power farming and construction equipment, boats, trucks, trains, generators, etc.) and heating oil (used for residential and commercial heating and for producing energy in power plants). HGLs include propane, butane, ethane, and others used in the production of plastics, cooking fuel, lighter fuel, and in gasoline.³

1.1.3 Energy Outlook

The global energy demand continues to grow due to the population growth and the improving standard of living around the world (see Figure 1.7). The biggest increase in demand is predicted in Asia (EIA, 2019).

At the same time that global energy demand is increasing, societal concern over climate change is driving decarbonization efforts around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The need for a decarbonized future to mitigate the potential future financial and human costs of climate change is well accepted globally (IPCC, 2021). The transition from the current energy production, consumption, and transport to the decarbonized future is challenging to imagine, and equally challenging to forecast. To capture the breadth of

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² See www.eia.gov, “Monthly Energy Review,” April 2022.

³ See https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php.

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.6 U.S. petroleum refined product consumption by end-use sectors’ share of total in 2019.

future possibilities, Greene Economics (2021) considered three different projections:

The Reference case, or business-as-usual scenario: Continuation of current trends.
The Net Zero by 2050 (NZ2050) case: Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to net zero by 2050 is consistent with efforts to limit the long-term increase in average global temperatures to 1.5°C. (IEA, 2021b).
Partial Transition: Halfway point between the Reference case and the NZ2050 case (ABS, 2020).

The share of oil and gas as the energy source globally differs considerably among the three scenarios (see Figure 1.8). In all scenarios, renewables have the largest rate of growth.

The following figures illustrate the crude oil (see Figure 1.9) and gas (see Figure 1.10) production in the United States, Canada, and Mexico for the three scenarios.

FIGURE 1.7 Global Energy Consumption. Projections represent the “Reference” case, which assumes continuation of current trends (see below).
SOURCE: EIA, 2019.

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.8 Global energy consumption projections for the reference, partial transition, and NZ2050 cases.
NOTE: Quad BTU = quadrillion British thermal unit.
SOURCE: Greene Economics, 2021.

In the Partial Transition and NZ2050 cases, the peak oil and gas production in the United States has already been reached. In the Reference case, the peak oil production would be reached around 2030, followed by relatively flat production thereafter. Gas production follows similar trends.

The energy outlook projections in Figures 1.9 and 1.10 show a large spread between the three scenarios, reflecting the uncertainty in the future political actions by governments, availability and cost of alternative energy and green fuels, and technological advances in carbon capture, large capacity

FIGURE 1.9 Crude oil production in the United States, Canada, and Mexico (billion bbl).
SOURCE: Greene Economics, 2021.

Page 17 Cite

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.10 Natural gas production in the United States, Canada, and Mexico (billion bbl).
SOURCE: Greene Economics, 2021.

batteries and fuel cells. Increase in the use of electric vehicles will have an impact on gasoline demand and consequently on oil demand, production and transportation; however, to achieve zero carbon life cycle for electric vehicles, alternative energy sources such as wind, hydroelectric, and solar are needed.

Hydrocarbons will continue to be a part of the energy mix, but their share is likely to decrease if the use of alternative fuels continues to increase at a faster rate than oil production increases. This will introduce a major transition to both the energy industry and consumers. New energy sources and fuels, such as biofuels, ammonia, and hydrogen, can introduce new safety and pollution concerns, and the regulators, the research community, and the industry are encouraged to proactively review and address any potential adverse effects from these transitions. While energy transition is taking place, continued attention to environmental concerns associated with fates and effects from human-caused chronic and episodic inputs of petroleum and fossil fuels remains critical.

1.2 STUDY RATIONALE

This study is the fourth in a series by the National Academies on inputs, fates, and effects of petroleum-based hydrocarbon mixtures in the sea. The first study, Petroleum in the Marine Environment, was published in 1975. As understanding of the science surrounding oil in the sea advanced, new reports were released. Table 1.1 lists the report series and sponsors.

Nearly two decades have passed since Oil in the Sea III was released. Since the last report, there have been significant advances in technology and science in general. There are almost 20 additional years of research on long-term

TABLE 1-1 Oil in the Sea Report Series

Year	Title	Sponsor(s)
1975	Petroleum in the Marine Environment	U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), Office of Naval Research, The Rockefeller Foundation, American Chemical Society
1985	Oil in the Sea: Inputs, Fates, and Effects	USCG
2003	Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects	Mineral Management Services, U.S. Geographical Survey (USGS), USCG, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. EPA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Navy, American Petroleum Institute (API), National Ocean Industries Association
2022	Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects	API, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Presidents’ Circle Fund

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.11 Largest oil spills affecting U.S. waters (1969–July 17, 2020), reported in million gallons (MG).
SOURCE: Office of Response and Restoration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

effects of oil spills on the environment from accidents such as the Exxon Valdez. Since 2003, there have been six large (more than 10,000 bbl) spills in North American waters (see Figure 1.11), including the largest maritime spill in North American history, the Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill (see Box 1.1), referred to throughout this report as the DWH oil spill. Financial support for science issued directly from BP following the spill along with the civil and legal penalties, and enactment of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA),⁴ led to a wealth of new research and literature on oil spill science. This surge in knowledge was a strong impetus for the committee’s undertaking of Oil in the Sea IV.

It should be noted that several other relevant studies have been conducted by the National Academies since the 2003 report to better understand inputs, fates, and effects of oil in the sea:

Oil Spill Dispersants: Efficacy and Effects (2005)
An Ecosystem Services Approach to Assessing the Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico (2013)
Responding to Oil Spills in the U.S. Arctic Marine Environment (2014)
Spills of Diluted Bitumen from Pipelines: A Comparative Study of Environmental Fate, Effects, and Response (2016)
The Use of Dispersants in Marine Oil Spill Response (2020)

1.2.1 Statement of Task

The committee’s Statement of Task is included in Box 1.2. The committee’s deliberations and report writing were informed by review of scientific literature and by a series of public meetings and presentations, drawing in expertise from academic, governmental, and non-governmental organizations.

In designing the study, the committee first reached consensus on what was and was not to be included in the report by defining four key terms included in the Statement of Task:

Oil: fossil fuel hydrocarbon; organic compounds containing primarily hydrogen (H) and carbon (C); originating from natural gas and petroleum present in geological formations; in their natural forms or as their human-produced hydrocarbon-containing derivatives (refined and modified products) in different physical states (gas, liquid, solid)

Marine environment: oceans, coastal ecosystems, and estuaries

Marine life and ecosystems: organisms directly in or in contact with the marine environment, at least part of the time

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⁴ See https://darrp.noaa.gov/what-we-do/natural-resource-damage-assessment.

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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BOX 1-1
Deepwater Horizon

The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill was not only a catastrophic event that ended in the loss of 11 lives, but also the largest oil spill in U.S. waters. An estimated 535,000 tonnes of oil were released over a period of 87 days from sources at depths exceeding 1,500 meters in the deep Gulf of Mexico (McNutt et al., 2012). The explosion and fire on the DWH drilling platform led to the sinking of the platform, which resulted in breakage of the submarine risers. The time line of oil leakage and interventions was reviewed by French-McCay et al. (2015) and is summarized here. After multiple failures of the blowout preventer (NAS, 2012), oil initially leaked predominantly from the end of the broken riser, which rested on the seafloor. The riser immediately above the blowout preventer was severely bent and started leaking as early as April 28, 2010. Over the following 30 days, the flow through the bent riser increased and oil continued to spill from the end of the riser.

During this period, dispersants were injected using the riser insertion tool at the end of the broken riser, but their usage was highly variable. Between May 26 and 29, 2010, BP attempted to stop the flow with drilling mud through the top-kill operation. When the top-kill failed, the broken riser was removed, which was completed on June 3, and the oil spill emanated from the top of the crippled wellhead. From this point onward, subsea dispersant injection (of varying volumes) was used as a mitigation technique to minimize the amount of oil transported to the surface. A “top-hat” device was installed over the exposed riser to help collect spilled oil and pump it to the surface to be recovered. The top-hat device ramped up collection from an initial rate of about 11,000 bbl/d on June 4 to 22,000 bbl/d by June 13, continuing through July 10; oil and gas not collected by the top hat were vented through ports on the sides of the top hat. During this time, engineers designed and built a capping stack device, which could shut in the well. The top hat was removed starting July 10, 2010, with the capping stack installed and the well shut in by July 15, 2010.

The fluids that leaked from the crippled Macondo well included gas and liquid phases. Because of the high pressure deep in the ocean and the high temperature of the release fluids, the liquid phase included a large fraction of dissolved gases, and the gas phase contained a large fraction of higher-molecular-weight compounds. As the discharged fluids rose in a plume above the wellhead, they entrained ambient seawater, eventually forming a flow of seawater, dissolved hydrocarbons, and gas bubbles and oil droplets that intruded into the ocean water column near 1,100 meters deep. Almost all of the methane released from the wellhead entered this subsurface intrusion layer along with significant fractions of other dissolved compounds and some tiny (order 100 microns) oil droplets (Lehr et al., 2010). The oil remaining in larger droplets rose to the sea surface, forming slicks.

Subsea dispersant injection was a unique response option used during the DWH oil spill. Dispersant was mixed with the oil and gas at the release point in an effort to disperse the oil that was escaping collection. Dispersant acts to reduce the interfacial tension between oil and water, allowing smaller oil droplets to form and be dispersed in the water column. While a significant fraction of oil still reached the sea surface and formed slicks (where targeted areas were then treated with surface dispersant), subsea dispersant injection significantly improved air quality by promoting greater dissolution of low-molecular-weight, volatile compounds from the oil during transit through the deep sea (Gros et al., 2017; Zhao et al., 2021).

While the oil was still flowing, BP announced they would provide $500 million to support a 10-year research program on the impact of the spill and improving capabilities to respond to future spills. This funding, which formed the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), supported more than 2,500 scientists and was a catalyst for an unprecedented era of oil spill science advancement (Colwell et al., 2021). In 2013, with $500 million in criminal settlement funds from the companies involved in the DWH oil spill, the National Academies’ Gulf Research Program (GRP) was created. The studies, projects, and activities conducted by the GRP will advance and apply science, engineering, and public health knowledge to reduce risks from offshore oil spills and will enable the communities of the Gulf to better anticipate, mitigate, and recover from future disasters. Additional funds of more than $19 billion were distributed from settlement of civil, criminal, natural resource, and administrative claims to support RESTORE Act programs, the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, Natural Resource Damages, and economic claims to Gulf of Mexico states.

North American waters: includes the countries of Canada, the continental United States and Hawai’i, and Mexico; extending seaward of these land masses to the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) established by the 1982 United Nations Convention in the Law of the Sea. In regions where the seaward boundary of the EEZ terminated before the base of the continental slope, North American waters extend to the base of the slope.

There are several important distinctions between this study and previous ones in the series. “Oil” is referred to in several ways in the Statement of Task, including as “hydrocarbons,” “fossil fuel hydrocarbons,” and “petroleum.” The committee chose to define “oil” in this report to mean “fossil fuel hydrocarbons.” Whereas the 2003 report’s definition was limited to the liquid state, this committee’s definition incorporates the gas, liquid, and solid states of fossil fuel hydrocarbons. Including the gaseous state allows the committee to consider hydrocarbon inputs into the water column such as those dissolved from natural seeps.

By opening up the definition of fossil fuel hydrocarbons to the solid state, flocculants and tar balls are also addressed. The committee also discussed possible inclusion of plastics composed of hydrocarbons synthesized from petrochemicals in the inputs section, as they are a source of fossil fuel hydrocarbons in the sea, but (1) the committee felt plastics, which

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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BOX 1.2
Statement of Task

The study will serve as an update of the previous report’s (Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects, 2003) inventory of the sources, composition, and quantity of hydrocarbon inputs to the marine environment and assessment of the state of the science on the fate and effects of fossil fuel hydrocarbons in the marine environment. To the extent possible, Oil in the Sea IV will also identify, categorize, and quantify these sources of hydrocarbons (and their chemical composition) with an emphasis on North American waters. The committee will examine worldwide data in an effort to place numbers derived for North American waters into a global context.

Specifically, the committee will:

Examine natural and anthropogenic sources of hydrocarbons entering the marine environment, including but not limited to:
- natural hydrocarbon seeps;
- extraction of petroleum (spills from production and drilling platforms, deposition from platform air emission, produced water and gas condensate discharges—disaggregated by platform type [e.g., deepwater, ultra-deep, shallow waters, leaks associated with platform decommissioning]);
- transportation of petroleum (pipeline spills, tanker spills, operational discharges, coastal facility spills, deposition from tanker exhaust and volatile organic compound [VOC] emissions); and
- consumption of petroleum (land-based runoff, recreational vehicle discharge, spills from commercial vessels <100 GT, operational discharges from commercial vessels, atmospheric deposition from land-based sources, aircraft dumping during emergencies).
Identify and evaluate, to the extent possible, sources of quantitative information about approaches for estimating the volume of hydrocarbon input to the marine environment worldwide from all sources. Based on these sources, develop, and summarize quantitative estimates of hydrocarbon inputs to the marine environment with an emphasis on North American waters and provide estimates of the upper, lower, and most probable values for each subcategory.
Assess and discuss the physical and chemical characteristics and behavior of these hydrocarbons, the transport and fate of various hydrocarbon mixtures in the marine environment, and the effects of these mixtures on marine life and ecosystems.
Characterize the risk posed to the marine environment by fossil fuel hydrocarbon components or type of input, given the range of organisms or ecosystems likely to be affected.
Review progress in implementing the recommendations from the 2003 report regarding inputs, fates, and effects and identify priority recommendations that have yet to be implemented.
Provide recommendations to improve estimates of inputs and identify focus areas for reducing hydrocarbon inputs from human activities.
Provide recommendations to improve understanding of the fates and effects of hydrocarbon inputs from human activities and strategies for reducing the more harmful effects.

include more than hydrocarbons (e.g., cellulose acetate), were beyond the spirit of the task and (2) a National Academies report quantifying the United States’ contribution to global marine plastic waste (NASEM, 2021) was under way concurrently with the Oil in the Sea IV study and should be referenced to understand the additional volume, transport, and fate of plastic pollution in the sea.

Additionally, the committee included a chapter (Chapter 2) to further define the commonly used but complex term “oil” and to review the basic physical chemical properties of gas, oil, and gas and oil mixtures. This chapter is foundational to later discussions on fates and effects of oil in the sea in Chapters 5 and 6. Geographically, this study encompasses North American waters, which the committee defined to include waters surrounding the continental United States, Hawai’i, Canada, and Mexico. The committee used the same geographic zones as presented in Oil in the Sea III, which are also included in Appendix A of this report.

In terms of defining marine life and ecosystems, the committee determined that humans are part of the marine ecosystem and therefore examined the effects of oil in the sea on human health that had not been thoroughly evaluated in previous reports in this series. This evaluation included the potential direct effects of crude oil and of crude oil components and derivatives through inhalation, ingestion, and skin contact on response workers and community members. The committee also evaluated the growing literature on the socioeconomic impact of oil spills on the mental and behavioral health of local community members.

Fates and effects of oil in the sea are not only coupled in many ways, they are also dependent on the particular oil spill response. Each response effort, from natural attenuation to complex operations, influences the fate and effects of oil in the sea. For this reason, a chapter on source control and response is also included (see Chapter 4).

1.2.2 Progress on Oil in the Sea III Recommendations

The committee’s charge includes identifying progress made on recommendations included in the Oil in the Sea III report and, specifically, highlighting recommendations that have not been acted on, but remain a priority. Table 1.2 summarizes the committee’s opinion on the status of each recommendation in Oil in the Sea III. Many of the recommendations are not

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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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TABLE 1-2 Recommendations from Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects

Key: Significant progress has been achieved Recommendation partially addressed Recommendation not addressed
#	Recommendation (with cross-reference to information supporting the rating, within the current report)
1	Federal agencies, especially the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Minerals Management Service (MMS), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) should work to develop more accurate techniques for estimating inputs from natural seeps, especially those adjacent to sensitive habitats. (Chapter 3)
2	To refine estimates associated with non-point sources, federal agencies, especially the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and the USGS, should work with state and local authorities to routinely collect and share data on the concentration of petroleum hydrocarbons in major river outflows and harbors in storm and wastewater streams. (Chapter 3)
3	The comprehensive port control regime, administered by the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), cooperative programs with ship owners and the boating community, and active participation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in developing effective international regulatory standards have contributed to the decline in oil spills and operational discharges. These efforts and relationships should be continued and further strengthened where appropriate. (Chapter 3)
4	Federal agencies, especially the USCG, should work with the transportation industry to undertake a systematic assessment of the extent of non-compliance. If the estimates of noncompliance assumed in this report are essentially correct, more rigorous monitoring and enforcement policies should be developed and implemented. (Chapter 3)
5	Federal agencies, especially the U.S. EPA, should continue efforts to regulate and encourage the phase-out of inefficient two-stroke engines, and a coordinated enforcement policy should be established. (Chapter 3)
6	The USCG should work with the IMO to assess the overall impact on air quality of VOC from tank vessels and establish design and/or operational standards on VOC emissions where appropriate. (Chapter 3)
7	Federal agencies, especially the Federal Aviation Administration, should work with industry to more rigorously determine the amount of fuel dumping by aircraft and to formulate appropriate actions to limit this potential threat to the marine environment. (Chapter 3)
8	Federal agencies, especially NOAA, MMS, the USCG, and the USGS, should work with industry to develop and support a systematic and sustained research effort to further basic understanding of the processes that govern the fate and transport of petroleum hydrocarbons released into the marine environment from a variety of sources (not just spills). (Chapter 5)
9	Federal agencies, especially the U.S. Coast Guard, NOAA, and U.S. EPA, should work with industry to develop a more comprehensive database of environmental information and ambient hydrocarbon levels, and should develop and implement a rapid response system to collect in situ information about spill behavior and impacts. (Chapters 5 and 6)
10	Federal agencies, especially the USGS, NOAA, U.S. EPA, and MMS, should develop and support targeted research into the fate and behavior of hydrocarbons released to the environment naturally through seeps or past spills. (Chapter 5)
11	Federal agencies, especially the USGS and U.S. EPA, should work with state and local authorities to establish or expand efforts to monitor vulnerable components of ecosystems likely to be exposed to petroleum releases. (Chapter 6)
12	To assess the impacts attributable to different sources including oil spills and nonpoint sources, federal agencies, especially the USGS and U.S. EPA should work with state and local authorities to undertake regular monitoring of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) inputs from air and water (especially rivers and harbors) to determine background concentrations. (Chapter 3)
13	Federal agencies, especially the USGS, MMS, NOAA, and U.S. EPA, should work with industry to develop or expand research efforts to understand the cumulative effects on marine organisms. Furthermore, such research efforts should also address the fates and effects of those fractions that are known or suspected to be toxic in geographic regions where their rate of input is high. (Chapter 6)
14	Federal agencies, especially the USGS, U.S. EPA, and NOAA, should work with state and local authorities and industry to implement comprehensive laboratory- and field-based investigations of the impact of chronic releases of petroleum hydrocarbons. (Chapter 6)
15	In areas of sensitive environments or at-risk organisms, federal, state, and local entities responsible for contingency plans should develop mechanisms for higher levels of prevention, such as avoidance, improved vessel tracking systems, escort tugs, and technology for tanker safety. (Chapter 3)
16	The U.S. Departments of the Interior and Commerce should identify an agency, or combination of agencies, to develop priorities for continued research on the following: the structure of populations of marine organisms and the spatial extent of the regions from which recruitment occurs; the potential for cascades of effects when local populations of organisms that are key in structuring a community are removed by oiling; and the basic population biology of marine organisms, which may lead to breakthroughs in understanding the relationship between sublethal effects, individual mortality and population consequences. (Chapter 6)
17	The federal agencies identified above, in collaboration with similar international institutions, should develop mechanisms to facilitate the transfer of information and experience. (Chapter 6)

Page 22 Cite

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.12 *Oil in Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects* report organization.
PHOTO CREDIT (left to right): NOAA, Alan Mearns, NOAA, NOAA, NOAA.

written in a way in which success is measurable; in some cases the agencies called out have changed (or the agencies’ responsibilities have changed); and in many cases there is no funding source to support the recommendations. For these reasons, the committee categorized the recommendations by whether or not (1) significant work has been accomplished, (2) the recommendation has been partially addressed, or (3) the recommendation has not been acted upon.

In the committee’s assessment, significant progress has occurred toward addressing three of the recommendations. Recommendations partially addressed in the areas of fates and effects are primarily due to the surge in research following the DWH oil spill; the ranking is not necessarily indicative of specific agency or interagency response. Most notably, significant progress was made on recommendations aimed at reducing oil inputs into the sea (Recommendations 3, 5, and 6)—the committee commends these efforts. Recommendations 1, 2, 4, 7, and 12, which were aimed at better quantification of oil inputs into the sea were largely not addressed. Recommendation 8 regarding sustained funding and effort to advance understanding of fates, and Recommendations 14 and 16, regarding the effects of oil in the sea were not addressed outside the context of the DWH-funded research. Details on recommendations that have not been fully addressed but remain a priority are called out in the appropriate sections within the body of this report.

Throughout the study process, the committee acknowledged the remarkable and unprecedented advancements seen in oil spill science in the past 20 years, especially following the DWH oil spill.⁵ Research funding sustained for over a decade was a key factor leading to the wealth of knowledge described in this report. This is not to say that unrelated efforts have not also been impactful, but it is clear what can be done with a continued dedicated funding stream, as seen over the past decade and as called for in previous Oil in the Sea recommendations.

This report aims to augment, but not repeat the information provided in Oil in the Sea III. During the writing of this report, more published information became available and will become available after this compilation is completed. The committee has aimed to bring the most recent published research to light.

Reiterating past recommendations, and to keep the momentum expanding understanding of the fates and effects of oil in the sea in the context of a constantly evolving fossil fuel landscape (i.e., changes in exploration, production, transportation, consumption of oil as well as the chemical composition of oil being transported and consumed), and to reduce and mitigate oil’s impact on the marine environment, the committee developed the following overarching conclusion and recommendation, which is echoed throughout the report.

Conclusion: Long-Term Funding Enables Great Advances in Knowledge

The establishment of, and 10 years of funding for, the GoMRI after the DWH oil spill resulted in an extraordinary output of discipline-specific research and, more importantly, of multidisciplinary research by funding a mix of field, laboratory, mesocosm, and test facility research, and related modeling. Similar periods of advancement were seen following other oil spills such as the Exxon Valdez and the Hebei Spirit. Advancement of oil spill science has a history of being hindered by a boom and bust funding cycle, which led to the inability to sustain continuity of oil spill research along with the scientific community conducting that research.

1.2.3 Report Organization

The Statement of Task aligns with the narrative of how oil interacts with the sea, and this is how the report is organized, shown in Figure 1.12. Chapter 2 sets the stage by delving into

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⁵ There are thousands of scientific publications and reports pertinent to the committee’s task; where practicable recent published reviews and a selection of relevant specific references were cited—it was impractical to cite all papers in the report’s subject areas published since 2003.

Page 23 Cite

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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FIGURE 1.13 Venn diagram depicting the connections between oil, the environment, biota, and response options.
SOURCE: Adapted from Mearns, 1997, by Dr. Alan Mearns, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

the details of exactly what oil is, incorporating important advancements in analytical chemistry and models to predict oil behavior. The journey begins in Chapter 3 with the origin of oil that ends up in the sea. Where is the oil coming from? What are the quantities of oil input into the sea? How have the quantities changed since Oil in the Sea III? How do we expect the volumes to change into the future and what other forms of potential inputs might be realized in the coming years? What can be done to prevent oil from entering the sea? Chapter 4 then discusses accidental spill mitigation measures through both source control and response in terms of what can be done to reduce the quantities of oil entering the environment and also to minimize the negative effects of oil on the marine ecosystem. Chapter 5 continues the story of what happens to the oil once it reaches the sea, assimilating significant advancements in understanding of transport and fate of oil in the sea. The story ends with Chapter 6, which discusses the harm the oil can have on the marine environment and marine organisms over its journey from source to contact, synthesizing a vast amount of literature focused on effects of oil on both the ecosystem and on humans.

Within each subsequent chapter, findings are identified in bold text. Synthesis of those findings is included in the last subsection of each chapter, described through conclusions and a list of specific research needs to advance understanding of the particular subject.

Although the committee has divided the report into distinct chapters, complex and intrinsic interdependencies exist among inputs, fates, effects, and the measures to reduce them—either from the source or by response. Because of the interconnected nature of oil spill science, overall recommendations are not specifically tied to one topic (or chapter) or another and are therefore presented in the final chapter of this report (see Chapter 7).

The Venn diagram in Figure 1.13 depicts the complicated relationships among oil parameters, environmental conditions, and biological components. These interactions illustrate the multitude of parameters adding to the complexity of changes over time and space in determining the potential effects from an oil spill and appropriate response strategies. While the listing of items in the diagram is not exhaustive, it clearly depicts the numerous combinations of possible variables. Thus, this simple diagram helps to serve as a visualization of the aspects covered in each of the chapters in this report.

Page 24 Cite

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26410.

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