Wildland Fires

Toward Improved Understanding and
Forecasting of Air Quality Impacts

_____

April Melvin, Rapporteur

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate

Board on Chemical Sciences and
Technology

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Proceedings of a Workshop

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-27737-2
International Standard Book Number: 0-309-27737-X
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26465

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Wildland Fires: Toward Improved Understanding and Forecasting of Air Quality Impacts: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26465.

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PLANNING COMMITTEE ON WILDLAND FIRES: TOWARD IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING AND FORECASTING OF AIR QUALITY IMPACTS – A WORKSHOP¹

A.R. “RAVI” RAVISHANKARA (NAS) (Chair), Colorado State University

SUSAN ANENBERG, George Washington University

MICHAEL T. BENJAMIN, California Air Resources Board

NARASIMHAN LARKIN, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service

LUKE P. NAEHER, University of Georgia

CARSTEN WARNEKE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

CHRISTINE WIEDINMYER, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

MARILEE SHELTON-DAVENPORT, Senior Program Officer, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology (until March 2022)

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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¹ NAE, National Academy of Engineering; NAS, National Academy of Sciences.

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

MARY GLACKIN (Chair), The Weather Company, an IBM Business

CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Heising-Simons Foundation

CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington

JOHN C. CHIANG, University of California, Berkeley

BRADLEY R. COLMAN, The Climate Corporation

BART E. CROES, California Air Resources Board

ROBERT B. DUNBAR, Stanford University

EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU (NAE), University of California, Irvine

PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists

VANDA GRUBIŠIĆ, National Center for Atmospheric Research

ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

RUBY LEUNG (NAE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin-Madison

AMY MCGOVERN, University of Oklahoma

JONATHAN PATZ, University of Wisconsin-Madison

J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD (NAS/NAE), University of Georgia

ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan

DAVID W. TITLEY, U.S. Navy (ret.), Pennsylvania State University

ARADHNA TRIPATI, University of California, Los Angeles

DUANE E. WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

ELKE WEBER, Princeton University

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director

APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer

STEVEN STICHTER, Senior Program Officer

ALEX REICH, Program Officer

RACHEL SILVERN, Program Officer

PATRICIA RAZAFINDRAMBININA, Associate Program Officer

ELISE MIALOU, Senior Finance Business Partner

SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Business Partner (until January 2022)

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Research Associate

AMY MITSUMORI, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

KYLE ALDRIDGE, Senior Program Assistant

LINDSAY MOLLER, Program Assistant

SABAH RANA, Program Assistant

BOARD ON CHEMICAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY

SCOTT COLLICK (Co-Chair), DuPont

JENNIFER SINCLAIR CURTIS (Co-Chair), University of California, Davis

GERARD BAILLELY, Procter and Gamble

RUBEN G. CARBONELL (NAE), North Carolina State University

JOHN FORTNER, Yale School of Engineering and Applied Science

KAREN I. GOLDBERG (NAS), University of Pennsylvania

JENNIFER M. HEEMSTRA, Emory University

JODIE L. LUTKENHAUS, Texas A&M University

SHELLEY D. MINTEER, University of Utah

AMY PRIETO, Colorado State University

MEGAN L. ROBERTSON, University of Houston

SALY ROMERO-TORRES, Thermo Fisher Scientific

REBECCA T. RUCK, Merck Process Research & Development

ANUP K. SINGH, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

VIJAY SWARUP, ExxonMobil

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

CHARLES FERGUSON, Senior Board Director

MEGAN E. HARRIES, Program Officer

LIANA VACCARI, Program Officer

LINDA NHON, Associate Program Officer

THANH NGUYEN, Finance Business Partner

JESSICA WOLFMAN, Research Associate

ABIGAIL ULMAN, Research Assistant

BENJAMIN ULRICH, Senior Program Assistant

BRENNA ALBIN, Program Assistant

AYANNA LYNCH, Program Assistant

EMMA SCHULMAN, Program Assistant

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Acknowledgments

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by James Randerson (NAS), University of California, Irvine. Dr. Randerson was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.

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Contents

Overview

Introduction

Wildfires and Human Health—An Overview

Where Are We Now?

The Changing Fire Regime

Modeling Smoke Plumes

Predicting Smoke

Combustion Chemistry

Chemistry during Smoke Transport

Health Effects of Wildfire Smoke

Current Communication across Health and Atmospheric Science Fields

Some Session Themes

Where Do We Want to Be?

Protecting Public Health at the Local Level

Examples of Research Needs to Improve Understanding of Smoke Health Effects

Smoke Mitigation and Management Needs

Respiratory Viral Infections and Wildfire Smoke

Some Session Themes

How Do We Get There?

Managing California’s Forests for the Future

Obtaining the Information Needed for the Coming Years

Improving Information Exchange for the Future

Final Thoughts

References

Appendix A: Statement of Task

Appendix B: Planning Committee Biographical Sketches

Appendix C: Workshop Agenda

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