Appendix A: Statement of Task

Wildland Fires: Towards Improved Understanding and Forecasting of Air Quality Impacts – A Workshop

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology

Statement of Task

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will appoint a planning committee to organize a workshop on improving understanding and forecasting of air quality impacts from wildland fires. The workshop will convene experts in wildfires, atmospheric chemistry, climate, meteorology, and health together with key decision makers from public health, emergency management, air quality management, and other relevant areas. This includes state and federal stakeholders. Workshop discussions will likely consider the following topics:

• Characterizing fire activity and their emissions: How are wildfires expected to change in the next decade in response to climate change and other drivers? Is there sufficient characterization of the effluents from wildland fires, fires at the interface of wildland and urban areas, and prescribed burns and agricultural fires?
• Atmospheric transport and chemical transformation of fire emissions: How well understood are the chemical transformations and what is the predictive capability for transport of fire effluents away from fire locations to other parts of the continent? How well understood is the aging of wildfire effluents, including smoke, gas phase constituents that can lead to criteria pollutants, and other toxics? How have the wildfires influenced requests for exemptions from states and what could be expected in the future if tighter air quality standards are implemented?
• Monitoring and modeling wildfire emissions: What are the capabilities for real-time monitoring of wildfire effluents from ground level, aircraft, and satellites? Are advances in monitoring technologies (e.g., uninhabited aircraft systems, crowd-sourcing, personal monitors) being taken advantage of? Are the necessary modeling tools available for forecasting impacts on spatial and temporal timescales needed for practical use by the society once a fire has started?
• Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting for fire seasons: What is the current skill? What capabilities may soon be available? How are decision makers using these products? How could such products be more useful to decision makers?
• Smoke health impacts: How well are the health impacts of wildfire smoke understood? What are the primary knowledge gaps? Is the dry PM_2.5 mass a sufficient indicator of health impacts? How is the knowledge about the impacts and their uncertainties

communicated to those in affected areas (e.g., the public, decision makers (such as schools, hospitals, and housing for the aged), vulnerable populations, etc.)?

• Communicating wildfire forecasts and mitigation options: How well do federal agencies, scientists, local and regional managers, public health officials, and other stakeholder groups communicate information about wildfires? How are risks and recommended actions communicated to various populations (affected communities in vicinity of fires, downwind communities, firefighters)? How can weather and other communications expertise be leveraged to improve communication about fire risk?