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Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop (2022)

Chapter: 4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space

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Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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4

Logistics and Manufacturing in Space

The advent of commercial launch systems has lowered the cost of lifting payloads into low Earth orbits (LEOs) and brought increased attention to the potential for expanding human activities in space. Technologies for on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (OSAM) are advancing for satellites, which could ultimately enable the construction of much larger structures in space. It is becoming increasingly feasible to envision creating transiently inhabited bases on the Moon and Mars, and engineers and planners are examining opportunities to use the lunar environment for storing, servicing, and making fuels to support these activities. With its lack of gravity, the space environment could also offer intriguing benefits for manufacturing activities and the use of novel materials, potentially allowing for designs that would not be feasible on Earth.

However, significant hurdles remain. The cost of material deployment to the near-lunar environment remains high, and supplies still must be packed into small spaces. The trade-offs between making components on Earth and deploying them to space versus space-based manufacturing remain poorly understood, along with many other facets of space logistics. In the workshop’s third day, participants examined opportunities and barriers related to the application of autonomous, robotic systems, large-scale additive manufacturing techniques, lunar indigenous materials, and novel manufacturing methods to advance a wide range of activities in space. To set the stage, Haydn Wadley, University of Virginia, introduced keynote speaker Kara Cunzeman of Aerospace.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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THE SPACE LOGISTICS CHALLENGE

Kara Cunzeman, Aerospace Corporation

Cunzeman described how strategic foresight can help to confront the space logistics challenge. Strategic foresight is advanced planning and preparation to generate awareness of multiple plausible outcomes, uncertainties, and opportunities in order to aid decision-making in an increasingly volatile world. While strategic foresight looks into the future, it has present-day implications for every sector. By working backward from multiple possible outcomes, Cunzeman said strategic foresight can inform efforts to plant the seeds of tomorrow’s achievements with today’s decisions and actions.

Strategic foresight comprises three essential steps: horizon scanning, insight, and action. Horizon scanning focuses on early indicators of global societal, technological, economic, environmental, political, and threat changes. Insight uses a set of techniques and activities to translate those indicators into signals that suggest new products, partnerships, or policies in anticipation of future opportunities or challenges. Those insights are then translated into feasible and meaningful actions, with relevant timelines, to accelerate or prevent future events.

Cunzeman posited that most organizations need strategic foresight. However, most operate in a mode where they are reacting to the present, not looking into the future, with a bias toward precision metrics. The recent pandemic has shown that large, intractable uncertainties cannot be quantified or understood by historical events or current trends. Cunzeman argued that anticipatory decision-making and action, informed by strategic foresight, is essential to understand future opportunities and weaknesses, prevent failures, and build resiliency. Cunzeman calls this the foresight to insight to action (FIA) cycle, and this is the bread and butter of most foresighting activity processes. In addition, she said that strategic foresight can reduce the focus on capabilities, which change rapidly, in favor of requirements.

The U.S. space program needs strategic foresight because space is no longer a static environment, Cunzeman said. Multiple players, more launches, and the forthcoming paradigm shift to on-orbit manufacturing and logistics will create many uncertainties, and frameworks are needed to account for those unquantifiable uncertainties and explore future possibilities. Blanket technological innovation is not the solution to everything; the real challenge, she suggested, is identifying future problems now and training workers to solve them.

Applying strategic foresight to the context of space logistics involves multiple sectors—industry, defense, and academia—and many questions about topics ranging from long-term habitats to health and entertainment. Identifying and addressing these questions will incorporate different ways of thinking, paradigm shifts, and a wide range of logistics capabilities. For example, is open-source code

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

free speech, can artificial intelligence (AI) and three-dimensional (3D) printing make one-off manufacturing profitable, and what capabilities can stretchable electronics or liquid metal tendons offer?

Cunzeman described key findings from her report, Pathfinder’s Guide to the Space Enterprise, which examines the national security, civil, and commercial possibilities of space.1 Seven intersecting themes, each with logistics and manufacturing implications, bring the future of space into focus. First, the report suggests fusing anticipatory sensing, assembly, and manufacturing to create intelligent infrastructure that provides information, digital twins, modeling simulation, and digital engineering for on-demand space manufacturing. Second, it posits that geopolitical and commercial conflicts such as supply chain disruptions and resource disputes will migrate into space, especially because of the many new players, who will offer or need energy, utilities, manufacturing, and entertainment. New workforce skills and capabilities will be needed, incorporating both humans and AI, and new resources for exploration, development, and extraction will become more valuable to grow space infrastructure, especially interplanetary infrastructure for sustained human presence. Access is important in all aspects: physical and virtual access, and access to resources, medical support, connectivity, repair, and diagnostics. Access will also enable further space exploration.

Events on Earth or in space, such as an asteroid impact, increased commercialization and commodification of space, and geopolitics, can profoundly affect this future. Technological leapfrogs, a 3D Internet, interconnected brains, genetically modified humans, extraterrestrial life, and instantaneous, proactive, anticipatory AI could also change the picture.

In closing, Cunzeman reiterated that the goal of strategic foresight is to envision a more abundant future that can elevate today’s actions. Applying it to the space environment, along with other technological advancements, will drive how humans develop the rich possibilities in both inner and outer space.

Discussion

Rosalind Lewis, Aerospace, moderated a discussion following Cunzeman’s remarks, which covered foresight in action, current threats and actions, and preparing organizations and the workforce for the future.

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1 K.C. Cunzeman, 2021, Aerospace Presents: Pathfinder’s Guide to the Space Enterprise, Aerospace Corporation, https://aerospace.org/aerospace-presents-pathfinders-guide-space-enterprise.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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Foresight in Action

Asked about the degree to which foresight contributes to the actual realization of ideas, Cunzeman said that the space industry is in the very early prototyping stages, driven mostly by strategy and science and technology development groups, which are allowed to take more risks. Government agencies take a more conservative approach, and will find it hard to move the needle without creative thought leadership to cultivate a culture of foresight, communicate its importance, and empower employees to contribute, she said. She suggested that curious organizations can start with small-group horizon scanning and low-risk prototyping.

Cunzeman also noted that predicting when something will occur is less important than the ability to anticipate key waves of development. First-wave developments are visible on the horizon, the second wave is a little further out, and the third wave is what can be accelerated or prevented by present actions.

Current Threats and Actions

Cunzeman said that the biggest current threat to colonizing space is humanity’s lack of vision, public support, and understanding of space’s value and its need for governance. She cautioned that treating space like the Wild West will have negative consequences for prosperity, security, and sustainability. While the experience of a potential space debris collision was helpful in raising awareness, she speculated that such risks will likely continue to be ignored until a catastrophe occurs.

Wadley asked if there was a roadmap to develop key space logistics infrastructure, and Cunzeman replied that there was not, but a collaboration of industry, government, and academia could create one that addresses micro- and macro-level challenges and mileposts to increase confidence in the future of space and encourage synchronization of efforts. In addition, she noted that efficient energy delivery in space would represent a paradigm shift, although this would require technical breakthroughs to overcome significant hurdles.

Preparing Students and Organizations

To prepare for this future, Cunzeman suggested students should focus on cultivating curiosity, flexibility, adaptivity, resilience, and passion. She stressed the importance of being passionate about problem solving generally, rather than focusing on one particular technology. Such a mindset provides lateral skills that are useful across different industries. For their part, she suggested that organizations should practice systemic future thinking, especially among leadership; convene and formalize horizon scanning groups to inspire new products or partnerships; and contact professional organizations for support.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Transitioning to a session on logistics in cis-lunar space, Lewis introduced Tom Spilker, Orbital Assembly Corporation; Gordon Roesler, Robots in Space LLC; Dennis Bushnell, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center; Danette Allen, NASA; and Justin Kugler, Made in Space and Redwire Space. Wadley moderated a brief discussion following each presentation.

LONG-DURATION OPERATIONS IN CIS-LUNAR SPACE:
NEEDS, HURDLES, AND OPPORTUNITIES

Tom Spilker, Orbital Assembly Corporation

Spilker discussed a variety of considerations for long-duration operations in cis-lunar space. Support for in-space operations such as refueling, maintenance, and construction of robotic and human platforms is poised for growth, but launch expenses and payload limitations need to be overcome, and certain trade-offs will be required. For example, compact designs that need to be extended to save space but require assembly that will be either fast and automated or slow and human-led. Technologies such as reusable launch vehicles, large-scale in-space additive manufacturing (AM) techniques, increased automation, and the availability of extraterrestrial materials could significantly reduce costs and simplify logistics, but not all of them are ready yet.

Habitable facilities with artificial gravity are required for living in low- or zero-gravity environments, but key research questions need to be answered to inform design and implementation, such as the effect on human physiology or what behavioral or pharmacological mitigations are needed, Spilker said. To construct long-term living quarters will require effective energy and materials delivery, construction and manipulation tools, manufactured elements like trusses, and assembly areas. Operation of such facilities will require secure storage, communications, food, medicine, water, and support to maximize sustainability and minimize waste.

Discussion

In reply to a question, Spilker stated that the most important hurdle is to develop inexpensive in-space construction tools, such as the automated space welding systems his group is testing.

Roesler asked about the implications of NASA’s Voyager and Starship being in different orbits. Spilker replied that the amount of traffic to and from Voyager is expected to support dedicated Starship launches, meaning that both will have Sun-synchronous orbit capabilities.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Bruce Crawford, Jacobs Engineering, asked if self-assembly of space structures is under consideration, and Andy Kwas, Northrop Grumman, noted that his group was collaborating with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) on a project that is using folded structures of rigid materials that then unfolds to a much larger structure once in space. Spilker pointed out that while these “origami-like” approaches are promising, the technology is not ready yet.

Wadley asked if, given the difficulties, it was in fact necessary for humans to be in space for long periods. Spilker replied that until AI can solve problems in real-time, humans will be needed, although latency issues are different in LEO, on the Moon, and on Mars. Being in low or zero gravity for years can have potentially fatal consequences that need to be better understood before people spend extended amounts of time in space.

A NATIONAL SPACE LOGISTICS SYSTEM

Gordon Roesler, Robots in Space, LLC

Roesler presented a vision for a national space logistics program to coordinate a supply chain and management system for space activities among the commercial space industry, NASA, and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Such a program, organized as a public-private partnership, could help make satellites more sustainable and repairable; reduce launch and payload cost and schedule limitations; facilitate cadenced launches with reusable in-space transportation; and provide platforms to store and replenish fuel for spacecraft. Through improved efficiencies, coordination, and standardized interfaces and procedures, it could also refresh spacecraft technologies and improve electronic and communication systems. Ideally, Roesler suggested that these services should exist within a modularized, commoditized system that transforms space the way shipping containers transformed globalization.

Space activities have important national security implications. As the Chinese and Russian governments increasingly prioritize space as a means to reduce U.S. dominance,2 space mobility and logistics that enable movement and support of military personnel and equipment to, from, and through space will be crucial, Roesler said. Establishing a powerful space logistics system would demonstrate U.S. military power and influence, helping to deter its adversaries. An international logistics consortium made up of national leadership and industry partners to support and fund space infrastructure can also help reduce aggression. Military-specific space logistics vehicles may be required to augment the commercial logistics system in order to ensure the ability to maintain logistics flow during conflict.

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2 Defense Intelligence Agency, 2019, Challenges to Security in Space, https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/Space_Threat_V14_020119_sm.pdf.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Looking forward, Roesler reiterated that an in-space servicing, manufacturing, assembly, robotics, and transport (SMART) logistics architecture would extend satellite life, provide business opportunities, install new payloads on existing assets, and improve activities between LEO, geosynchronous orbit (GEO), and cis-lunar space.3 Roesler argued that the technology to do this already exists, and orbital outposts, multi-orbit logistics, and space system modularity have been shown to be possible, but said that national leadership, seed funding, and commitments to use the system are needed to overcome barriers to implementation.

Discussion

A participant asked Roesler to explain his vision for in-space fuel depots. Roesler explained that while costs to launch large constellations into LEO will drop, the requirement to replace them frequently will still make GEO satellites an attractive option for many applications. A logistics system that supports them would naturally include fuel depots. Fuel would initially come from Earth, but he suggested that it could eventually come from the Moon. The same system could also support lunar surface and lunar orbital operations, and a fuel depot at the Earth-Moon Lagrange point L1 could also be attractive.

Roesler was asked who would cover the infrastructure costs of the envisioned logistics system, and he replied that he advocates a joint approach, where the government provides seed funding and solicits bids, attracting private investment for the bulk of the funding. Incentives will be necessary all around: for the government to provide funding, for industry to build components, and for customers to buy services. The Earth-Moon L1 point is especially valuable real estate, and a large, multi-functional, refuelable, payload-hosting commercial satellite will soon be installed there. Where one company succeeds, he speculated, others will follow.

Roesler acknowledged that there could be some regulatory and legal challenges, and stressed the importance of an international framework for issues such as lunar property rights. When Wadley suggested that a consortium of companies standardize and select approaches, Roesler replied that such a consortium already exists. The Consortium for Execution of Rendezvous and Servicing Operations (CONFERS), started by DARPA but now industry-led, is studying best practices, safety standards, and possible interface or technology specifics. In addition, the Hague International Space Resources Governance Working Group is developing a framework within which to consider many of these issues.4

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3 U.S. Space Force, 2020, Spacepower: Doctrine for Space Forces, Space Capstone Publication, https://www.spaceforce.mil/Portals/1/Space%20Capstone%20Publication_10%20Aug%202020.pdf.

4 See the Universiteit Leiden, International Institute of Air and Space Law, The Hague International Space Resources Governance Working Group webpage at https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/law/institute-of-public-law/institute-of-air-space-law/the-hague-space-resources-governance-working-group.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Roesler also noted that DARPA is studying fission or fusion power modules as an alternative to solar power, although there are heat rejection issues with these approaches.

IN SITU RESOURCE UTILIZATION FOR OSAM LOGISTICS AND SPACE DEVELOPMENT

Dennis Bushnell, NASA Langley Research Center

OSAM capabilities are being pursued for many reasons. For example, OSAM could enable the reuse of space debris; support safe and affordable space travel; improve instrument, manufacturing, navigation, and communications capabilities; and substantially reduce the costs of activities in space. A variety of technologies will be important to realizing the potential of OSAM, including powerful nuclear batteries and advanced AI and robotics capabilities. Perhaps the most important enabler will be the ability to use resources from space, in space—known as in situ resource utilization (ISRU).

Bushnell discussed opportunities and challenges for ISRU. Space has many unique resources and attributes—including low temperatures, high solar power, and microgravity—that offer a plethora of new possibilities for science and exploration, mining, manufacturing, tourism, and national defense. Combined with reusable rockets and stronger batteries, ISRU could help make human flight to Mars a safe and affordable reality, Bushnell said. Once there, ISRU can enable people to tap into Mars’s massive resources to colonize the planet and create reliable habitats, fuels, life support systems, and regolith-powered surface-exploration equipment. Mars has enough water, minerals, and oxygen to become a huge resource center, providing fuels, plastics, foods, and more to support activities in the outer solar system. NASA envisions making ISRU activity available through virtual reality to engage the public, Bushnell said.

Of course, there are many challenges to realizing this vision. To make frequent spaceflight feasible and sustainable, for example, it is important to drastically reduce total launch mass and clean up orbital debris. Bushnell pointed to a need for trusted, autonomous, low-cost robotics, which can improve the functionality and durability of space operations. Robotics technology with “machine ideation” capabilities will know more, work faster and more efficiently, and reduce the impact of human error. Other hurdles and needs include fast, inexpensive, reliable, and safe access to space stations and bases; systems to support human health during long-term space travel and settlement; detailed mapping of space resources; creative and strategic foresight; improved nuclear power capabilities; and solutions to legal quandaries.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

Discussion

When asked about the potential risks associated with failed nuclear batteries, Bushnell replied that the existing regulations should protect against such risks. As for powered tethers to perform orbital maneuvers and clean up space debris, Bushnell noted that passive, fuel-free tether designs that use more powerful nuclear batteries are under study.

AUTONOMY AND DEXTEROUS ROBOTS

Danette Allen, NASA

Allen expanded on the role of autonomous, dexterous robots in advancing OSAM capabilities. The International Space Station (ISS) was built by human-led in-space assembly (see Figure 4.1) over the course of 14 years and more than 30 launches, at enormous expense. Assembling equipment in space with OSAM using autonomous, dexterous robots—teaming in concert with humans when

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FIGURE 4.1 The International Space Station, built by human-led in-space assembly, took 14 years and more than 30 launches. OSAM using autonomous, dexterous robots could enable construction of structures at a much quicker pace and with fewer high-risk events such as launches. SOURCE: Danette Allen, NASA, Intelligent Flight Systems, presentation to the workshop, June 4, 2021. Courtesy of NASA.
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

needed but capable of executing their missions on their own—will go much faster; help high-value satellites last longer; enable zero gravity manufacturing of large, modular systems that decouple payload and launch limitations; and improve the performance, pace, and persistence of space assets, Allen said. Enabling autonomous in-space assembly will also create a new fairing paradigm with lower volume and mass constraints and fewer opportunities for a single point of failure, such as a release mechanism or structure deployment, to stymie the entire process.

NASA’s first two OSAM launches will be servicing missions. OSAM-1, scheduled for 2024 and known as RESTORE-L, will rendezvous with and refuel a government satellite. It will also launch the Space Infrastructure Dexterous Robot (SPIDER) payload, with its own manufacturing and assembly missions. OSAM-2, previously known as Archinaut 1, will print two beams and unfurl a large solar array, which is estimated to generate up to five times more power than existing arrays deployed by spacecraft of the same size.

Future NASA plans include a large telescope for exoplanetary observation that can be launched in pieces and robotically assembled in space (see Figure 4.2), with servicing needs built into the assembly process.5 In addition, NASA is exploring Precision Assembled Space Structures (PASS), a multi-level assembly area where task-optimized robots work together to deploy high-density payloads and metrology systems for assembly. Last, NASA is also exploring the opportunities to use OSAM on surfaces, such as for lunar construction and exploration.

Discussion

Wadley asked Allen about the feasibility of developing robots with human-like dexterity and other capabilities. For physical interactions, she replied that the solution is a combination of standardization and tailorable grapple tools augmented with flexible soft robotics that can change form factors. For vision and sensing, structure and sensor fusion will be important. Space is typically dynamic and unstructured, and OSAM adds the structure needed to create a baseline. Once the structure is in place, fusing the feedback from different sensors can reduce errors related to vision, timing, and sensing.

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5 R. Mukherjee, N. Siegler, H. Thronson, K. Aaron, J. Arenberg, P. Backes, et al., 2019, “When Is It Worth Assembling Observatories in Space?” Astro2020 APC Whitepaper, California Institute of Technology, https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/internal_resources/1254.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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FIGURE 4.2 The in-space assembled telescope study (iSAT) offers a vision for assembling a 20-meter telescope in deep space. SOURCE: Danette Allen, NASA, Intelligent Flight Systems, presentation to the workshop, June 4, 2021.

SPACE-BASED MATERIALS SYNTHESIS AND MANUFACTURING

Justin Kugler, Made in Space and Redwire Space

Rapid technological developments in the past 15 years have delivered more capabilities and reliability, in situ repair and sustainment, and lower costs for space missions with launchable systems optimized for life in orbit, making it possible to go to Mars and beyond. While extended-structure6 on-orbit manufacturing comes with challenges, Kugler described how using space’s advantages can offer a promising alternative to designing complicated folding structures that may not survive launch. Among other possibilities, space-based manufacturing unlocks the potential for advanced instrumentation with larger apertures to detect exoplanets, perform faint object astronomy, and learn how galaxies form.

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6 “Extended structure” here simply means high aspect ratio.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

OSAM-2, formerly called Archinaut 1 and scheduled to launch in 2023, will be the first free-flying satellite to manufacture and assemble itself after launch. This LEO test mission is a partnership with SpaceX (taking advantage of SpaceX’s lower costs and increased flight throughput), and aims to demonstrate the viability of this approach to NASA and industry. Archinaut’s AM device will extend a 10-meter-long simulated solar array and then reconfigure itself to create a 6-meter-long structural test article so that researchers can monitor the performance dynamic behavior and resilience of this additively manufactured polymer structure during its nominal time in orbit.

These in-space manufacturing technologies can also be applied to other missions, such as robotically reconfiguring Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) rings and enabling long baseline optical interferometry missions from small satellites, Kugler said. However, different missions may require solid-state metal manufacturing technology other than 3D printing for higher orders of thermal or structural stability. For example, testing has shown that high-performance metals and traditional manufacturing techniques such as automated truss welding can build larger, stiffer structures more quickly than 3D printing, and can be used to build next-generation faint object observatories, where 50- to 100-meter trusses are needed, capable of imaging the Kuiper Belt or gas giant moons at a much lower cost.

Discussion

In response to a question, Kugler noted that Archinaut’s robotic arm is the most energy intensive component of the equipment, requiring 500 watts, but its AM systems use the standard 75 watts. He also noted that engineered thermoplastic polymers, such as polyetherimide and polyethylene terephthalate, are the materials best suited for in-space manufacturing of space structures so far.

Kwas asked if these techniques could be viable for building major structures in space. Kugler replied that they can, but noted that it is first necessary to build confidence in the techniques via low-cost demonstrations of repeatable and reliable AM processes that can be monitored and verified, which is Archinaut’s mission.

Asked how AM could be used to fabricate metal structures in space, Kugler said that previous work in this area suggests that AM with metal in space is very difficult and energy intensive. Terrestrial innovators are trying to make it more energy efficient and safer, especially for human deep space travel. For satellites, solid-state metal manufacturing would be better than metal AM, as it requires less energy and has fewer hazards, Kugler noted.

For the workshop’s final session, Lewis introduced a panel discussion on the future of space logistics. Panelists were Kwas; Robert Hoyt, Tethers Unlimited, Inc.; and William Carter of DARPA’s Defense Sciences Office. Wadley moderated the general discussion that followed.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

INNOVATION IN ON-ORBIT SERVICING

Andy Kwas, Northrop Grumman

Kwas discussed cutting-edge innovations in on-orbit servicing of satellites and other space assets. Northrop Grumman’s Space Logistics group has demonstrated successful life extension services and plans to launch robotic satellite servicing, refueling, and GEO debris removal, as well as OSAM capabilities. In 2020, the team successfully docked a mission extension vehicle (MEV) to a satellite in graveyard orbit, extending its usefulness for 5 years at a fraction of the cost of a new satellite. A second MEV mission docked to a functioning GEO satellite with no customer outages.

In the next few years, Kwas said mission robotics vehicles (MRVs) will have on-orbit augmentation capabilities to make satellite upgrades or repairs and will be able to access other capabilities, payloads, and fuel from mission extension pods (MEPs) stored in space. In addition, MRVs will be able to assemble persistent, large platforms on orbit. To this end, Kwas said Northrop Grumman is working with DARPA and the Air Force Research Laboratory to create an in-space solar power system for such a platform and also studying how to build next-generation super-size space telescopes.

BUILDING AN IN-SPACE SUPPLY CHAIN

Rob Hoyt, Tethers Unlimited, Inc.

In-space services such as propellant depots, orbital outposts, microgravity materials manufacturing, cargo vehicles, and asteroid resources will increase resilience, responsiveness, and cost effectiveness of space activities and make it possible to establish a fully in-space, economically viable supply chain. Hoyt discussed the opportunities afforded by an in-space supply chain and the need for customers in order to create a new economic sphere, improve national prosperity and security, and grow capabilities.

OSAM has the possibility to be the glue that will tie services together with customers and create a new, robust economy where assets increase their value over time, Hoyt said. OSAM includes in-space servicing to extend vehicle lifespan, enable new missions, and remove debris; in-space assembly of modular persistent platforms and integration of upgrade payloads; and in-space manufacturing of large structures for increased performance, resilience, and deterrence in the contested space environment.

Space manufacturing can optimize support structures for operation, not launch, increasing their structural efficiency and resilience; provide new capabilities to meet

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

evolving mission or market needs; and rapidly reconstitute critical components after attack. For example, a Tethers Unlimited project known as Gauntlet integrates small, low-cost, robotic payloads for cost-effective assembly and servicing of smaller satellites. Maker Sat, to launch early next year, will demonstrate in-space manufacturing of a 10- to 20-meter-long carbon boom with high thermal stability.

LUNAR RESOURCE UTILIZATION FOR DOD MISSIONS: MANUFACTURING, MATERIALS, AND MASS-EFFICIENT DESIGNS

William Carter, DARPA Defense Sciences Office

Carter discussed DoD’s interest in space operations and in particular lunar resource utilization. Given the strong competition from its rivals in all domains—including air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace—Carter stressed that investments in space operations are vital for the United States to maintain competitiveness and resiliency.7 While space missions are constrained by launch requirements and other challenges, new logistics and civil, commercial, and military capabilities can make in-space fueling routine and affordable and enable large solar arrays, next-generation telescopes, and powerful new antennas.8,9

DoD’s NOM4D program will explore lunar possibilities. Although the Moon cannot be used for military purposes, its resources are part of the space ecosystem and could play an important role in overall space activities. Utilizing the Moon’s resources and understanding the operational environment will not be trivial, but despite the challenges, Carter suggested that developments over the next few decades will increase the feasibility of combining lunar- and Earth-sourced space manufacturing to remove current design constraints, especially regarding mass, energy, and signals.

GENERAL DISCUSSION

In a general discussion of the future of space logistics, participants and panelists discussed current needs, costs and benefits, space debris, international partnerships, and property rights.

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7 U.S. Department of Defense, 2018, Summary of the National Defense Strategy, https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf.

8 M. Thomson, 1999, The AstroMesh Deployable Reflector, IEEE Antennas and Propagation Society International Symposium, 1999 Digest, held in Conjunction with USNC/URSI National Radio Science Meeting (Cat. No. 99CH37010), https://doi.org/10.1109/aps.1999.838231.

9 R. Pappa, G. Rose, T. Mann, J. Warren, M. Mikulas, T. Kerslake, T. Kraft, and J. Banik, 2013, “Solar Array Structures for 300 kW-Class Spacecraft,” NASA Space Power Workshop, https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140000360/downloads/20140000360.pdf.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
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Current Needs

Wadley kicked off the discussion by asking the panelists to name the most pressing need for enabling future space logistics. Carter pointed to the need for a shared, reasonable, international understanding of how to interact within space and utilize its resources. He suggested that such an understanding could start from a conversation about interoperability, use, and reuse standards. Kwas pointed to the large number of technical challenges to overcome and suggested that a large amount of funding would be needed to solve them. Hoyt replied that a customer base for which in-space services are an integral part of the business plan will be key to unlocking the investments needed to establish and mainstream space logistics capabilities.

Angus Kingon, Brown University, asked how close we are to developing viable nuclear batteries, which could be a game-changer for space manufacturing and logistics. Bushnell replied that many customers are interested in these batteries, and some designs have been invented and patented. The current challenge, he said, is to fund a model to determine the efficiency of using these systems. He added that using nuclear waste as a power source for these batteries would produce massive amounts of electricity from an otherwise problematic material.

When asked by Wadley what policies are needed to accelerate space logistics, Kwas replied that he was not aware of any policies or regulations prohibiting work in this area, and Hoyt replied that there could be interesting tax policy implications to explore. Kugler argued that legislation on commercial royalties for ISS developments is premature. In the context of the Space Force, Carter also noted that pararescue capabilities in LEO are not a current priority.

Costs and Benefits

When asked about cost-benefit ratios, Kwas said that every mission is different, but enabling refueling is likely to be a relatively easy solution that enables satellites to be radically redesigned and even eventually be launched without fuel. Perhaps a bigger challenge lies in developing the capability to replace solar panels, batteries, and processors for deployed equipment; Kwas suggested these types of services could have even more cost benefits, especially if done by private companies. Hoyt noted that his team’s analyses show cost-performance improvements for a wide variety of missions, but suggested that the real value is when in-space manufacturing enables missions that are currently impossible or prohibitively expensive. Carter agreed that there are many high value opportunities. Government can be risk averse, but once there is a clear economic advantage, it will shift to the new paradigm quickly, he suggested.

Kingon asked if it would make economic sense to manufacture something in space for export back to Earth. Kwas replied that it depends on what is being

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

manufactured. Such efforts may be worthwhile for new materials that capitalize on space’s unique resources, but likely will not be pursued for larger structures that are being built in space for the purpose of overcoming launch limitations. Wadley added that the cost of sending materials and equipment up might be too great for export. Hoyt noted that while optical fiber manufacturing may have value exceeding the launch costs, this would not likely be the case for metals, and said his team focuses currently on in-space use. Carter pointed out that microgravity might offer benefits for particular applications, such as manufacturing biological reactors for vaccine development.

Carter asked other panelists to comment on cost models for new technologies or projects. Kwas answered that inaccurately low cost estimates create distrust. While his company’s MEV mission hit the cost target, he cautioned that there is no definitive way to know a mission’s true cost until it is completed. Hoyt agreed, noting that unexpected problems frequently lead to cost increases. Like the software industry, which also finds cost predictions difficult, it might be better to build quickly and incrementally to monitor costs until achieving full capabilities, he suggested.

The Space Debris Problem

Panelists discussed the need for, and economics of, removing or recycling space debris. Hoyt said that his team is trying to demonstrate the feasibility and economic viability of space debris recycling, because until there is a value proposition, no one will sponsor its cleanup. Expanding on this point, Roesler speculated that until a space operation loses money from a collision, no organization will want to pay for cleanup. DARPA’s 2011 Catcher’s Mitt study found that to reduce the chance of a catastrophic collision, it is more important to remove larger objects, even just 5 to 10 of them annually, but doing so is very expensive.10 The most critical ones to remove are multi-ton rocket bodies left in orbit by the former Soviet Union that are on intersecting orbits, Roesler said, but efforts to remove them would require international diplomacy combined with new powerful robotic de-orbit vehicles. As a stopgap, Roesler suggested that adding small propulsion units to these objects could be used to alter their velocity when needed and represent a less expensive way to reduce the chance of a collision.

If a robust, low-cost logistics system to clean up space debris existed, it could unlock the will and the funding needed, Roesler suggested. He also noted that he is skeptical when satellite-launching organizations assert that their failure rate is zero. Bushnell added that space debris is made up of very expensive materials, and his group is trying to make new systems inexpensively.

___________________

10 W. Pulliam, 2011, Catcher’s Mitt Final Report, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1016641.pdf.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

International Partnerships and Property Rights

When asked how the United States can partner with other countries, Carter answered that the United States already has strong existing relationships that can be leveraged. Kwas replied that for industry, international relationships can be challenging, but large companies like Northrop Grumman that have operations in several countries see those governments as trusted allies to work with, as long as International Traffic in Arms Regulations limitations are maintained. There is room for multiple space logistics companies and organizations, he continued, as long as they work as fair competitors.

Wadley asked about property rights in space, and Kwas noted that multi-component structures built by different companies raise complex legal issues. In addition, Carter replied that there are gray areas within the Outer Space Treaty that could enable DoD personnel to do scientific work on the Moon. He added that he was not aware of any current agreement covering commercial Moon installations.11

WORKSHOP OBSERVATIONS

To wrap up the workshop, Wadley and Kingon shared reflections and invited Defense Materials, Manufacturing, and Infrastructure (DMMI) committee members Dianne Chong, Boeing (retired); Andrea Hodge, University of Southern California; and Pablo Zavattieri, Purdue University, to share their overall impressions.

Kingon highlighted two key themes: transformation and supply chain capabilities. Many of the innovations discussed during the workshop could be transformational, such as the first day’s discussions of large-infrastructure AM and novel construction materials. On the second day, participants discussed transformations such as onshoring innovative hybrid electronics manufacturing and using digital twins to monitor and maintain individual assets and entire supply chains. On the final day, speakers talked about ways to transform space and critical enablers such as OSAM and ISRU capabilities and the creation of a national space logistics program.

Transformation can come only after implementation, however, and Kingon noted that some innovations—even those with clear social and economic benefits—will be easier to implement than others. Implementation can be done well, but it will require precise structuring, design thinking, and identifiable transformation drivers, he concluded.

Chong stressed that only innovations that can be productized, user-friendly, and made of the right materials will be successful. In addition, sensors can reduce

___________________

11 “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs,” 1966, Treaties and Other International Agreements.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×

servicing and replacement costs, and proper supply chain management, including adaptation to the changing global situation, is critical. Boeing employs strategic foresight to guide its research, and aims to create accurate economic models. Two common challenges on the part of industry are to convince employees and consumers to accept new technologies, and to hire and retain workforce talent, she noted.

Hodge emphasized the importance understanding materials degradation and repair for large-scale manufacturing and logistics, especially as basic research measured in nanometers can become the large-scale space architecture of the future. In-space manufacturing of these large structures, made up of new, sustainable materials, will require very different mechanisms. Hodge suggested that policymakers and engineers should work together to propel the ideas and innovations discussed at the workshop, while academia and industry should work together to encourage and train the workforce that will be required to make these visions a reality.

Building on this point, Zavattieri said that learning about future technological developments informs how academics can train this next-generation, interdisciplinary workforce. Industry is usually operating closer to the market and is used to making technology viable, but there are opportunities for researchers to add to the store of knowledge. For example, AM solves construction problems while simultaneously opening the door to research on novel multi-functional materials such as biomimetics.

Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
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Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 38
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 39
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 40
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 41
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 42
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 43
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 44
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 45
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 46
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 47
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 48
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 49
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 50
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 51
Suggested Citation:"4 Logistics and Manufacturing in Space." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack: Future Pathways: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26482.
×
Page 52
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The ability to deploy and maintain infrastructure and equipment is crucial to military operations and national security. However, the ability to make and repair equipment in a wide range of operational environments is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions in global supply chains and to attacks. Emerging technologies and innovations offer exciting new opportunities to create structures remotely using a broad range of materials, as well as new capabilities for repair and operational support to sustain assets in the long term.

To examine these issues and reveal areas of opportunity for military applications and the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted the Workshop on Logistics and Manufacturing Under Attack on June 2-4, 2021. The virtual event brought together speakers and attendees representing materials science, engineering, logistics, and manufacturing experts from industry, academia, and government agencies. The event was organized around three main topics: additive manufacturing of large structures, critical systems supply and repair, and supply and manufacturing in space. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

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