Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership: Hypotheses, Methodologies, and Detailed City-by-City Results (2022)

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    TCRP Web-Only Document 74: Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership HYPOTHESES, METHODOLOGIES, AND DETAILED CITY-BY-CITY RESULTS Kari Watkins Simon Berrebi Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA Gregory Erhardt Jawad Hoque Vedant Goyal University of Kentucky Lexington, KY Candace Brakewood Abubakr Ziedan Wesley Darling University of Tennessee Knoxville, TN Brendon Hemily Toronto, ON Josephine Kressner Transport Foundry Portland, OR Appendices for TCRP Project A-43 Submitted May 2021 ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) in cooperation with the Transit Development Corporation (TDC). It was conducted through the Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for- profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, NHTSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.

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C O O P E R A T I V E  R E S E A R C H  P R O G R A M S  CRP STAFF FOR TCRP WEB-ONLY DOCUMENT 74 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Gwen Chisholm Smith, Manager, Transit Cooperative Research Program Dianne S. Schwager, Senior Program Officer Jarrel McAfee, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Lisa Whittington, Editor Jennifer J. Weeks, Publishing Projects Manager TCRP PROJECT A-43 PANEL Field of Operations Aaron S. Weinstein, Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Los Angeles, CA (Chair) Justin D. Antos, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, Washington, D.C. Peter Carter, Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Los Angeles, CA Baofeng Dong, Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District, Portland, OR Maribeth Feke, Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority (RTA), Cleveland, OH Kimberly B. Fragola, Centre Area Transportation Authority (CATA), State College, PA Joel Huting, Metro Transit, Minneapolis–St. Paul, St. Paul, MN Thomas C. Lambert, Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County, Houston, TX Seri Park, Villanova University, Villanova, PA Samuel L. Scheib, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, Washington, D.C. Edward F. Watt, Rockaway Park, NY Cynthia Wilson, Fort Worth Transportation Authority, Fort Worth, TX Michael R. Baltes, FTA Liaison Ryan Bartlett, FTA Liaison Matthew Dickens, APTA Liaison Katherine A. Kortum, TRB Liaison

v Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ v List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. xiv List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... xiv Appendix A: Hypotheses of Ridership Change .......................................................................... A-1 A.1 External Traditional Factors ....................................................................................... A-1 A.2 Internal Traditional Factors ......................................................................................... A-2 A.3 External Factors Impacting Recent Changes .............................................................. A-3 A.4 Internal Factors Impacting Recent Changes ............................................................... A-4 A.5 Transit Agency Strategy Development ....................................................................... A-4 Appendix B: Multi-City Evaluation Applied to New York Metro Area .................................... B-1 Appendix C: Multi-City Evaluation Results by MSA ................................................................ C-1 Akron, OH Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................... C-1 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY Metro Area-Bus ................................................................... C-2 Albany, GA Metro Area-Bus .................................................................................................. C-3 Albuquerque, NM Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-4 Albuquerque, NM Metro Area-Rail ........................................................................................ C-5 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ Metro Area-Bus ......................................................... C-6 Altoona, PA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-7 Ames, IA Metro Area-Bus ...................................................................................................... C-8 Anchorage, AK Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-9 Ann Arbor, MI Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-10 Appleton, WI Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................. C-11 Asheville, NC Metro Area-Bus............................................................................................. C-12 Athens-Clarke County, GA Metro Area-Bus........................................................................ C-13 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................ C-14 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area-Rail ........................................................ C-15 Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC Metro Area-Bus ......................................................... C-16 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area-Bus ........................................................ C-17 Bakersfield-Delano, CA Metro Area-Bus............................................................................. C-18 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................. C-19

vi Baltimore-Towson, MD Metro Area-Rail ............................................................................ C-20 Baton Rouge, LA Metro Area-Bus ....................................................................................... C-21 Bay City, MI Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-22 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................ C-23 Bellingham, WA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-24 Billings, MT Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................... C-25 Binghamton, NY Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-26 Birmingham-Hoover, AL Metro Area-Bus........................................................................... C-27 Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA Metro Area-Bus .................................................. C-28 Bloomington-Normal, IL Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................... C-29 Bloomington, IN Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-30 Boise City-Nampa, ID Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................... C-31 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metro Area-Bus ........................................................ C-32 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metro Area-Rail ........................................................ C-33 Bremerton-Silverdale, WA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................ C-34 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT Metro Area-Bus ........................................................... C-35 Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Metro Area-Bus ....................................................................... C-36 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................... C-37 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Metro Area-Rail ........................................................................ C-38 Burlington-South Burlington, VT Metro Area-Bus .............................................................. C-39 Canton-Massillon, OH Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................... C-40 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL Metro Area-Bus ....................................................................... C-41 Cedar Rapids, IA Metro Area-Bus........................................................................................ C-42 Champaign-Urbana, IL Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................. C-43 Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC Metro Area-Bus ........................................ C-44 Charleston, WV Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-45 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC Metro Area-Bus ...................................................... C-46 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC Metro Area-Rail ...................................................... C-47 Chattanooga, TN-GA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................. C-48 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metro Area-Bus ........................................................ C-49 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metro Area-Rail ........................................................ C-50 Chico, CA Metro Area-Bus .................................................................................................. C-51

vii Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN Metro Area-Bus ......................................................... C-52 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH Metro Area-Bus ................................................................... C-53 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH Metro Area-Rail ................................................................... C-54 Colorado Springs, CO Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................ C-55 Columbia, MO Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-56 Columbia, SC Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................. C-57 Columbus, OH Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-58 Corpus Christi, TX Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................... C-59 Corvallis, OR Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................. C-60 Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL Metro Area-Bus ................................................. C-61 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area-Bus .............................................................. C-62 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area-Rail ............................................................. C-63 Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL Metro Area-Bus ...................................................... C-64 Dayton, OH Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................ C-65 Decatur, IL Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-66 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL Metro Area-Bus ............................................. C-67 Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO Metro Area-Bus ................................................................ C-68 Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO Metro Area-Rail ............................................................... C-69 Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................ C-70 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metro Area-Bus ...................................................................... C-71 Duluth, MN-WI Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-72 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................... C-73 Eau Claire, WI Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-74 El Centro, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-75 El Paso, TX Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................ C-76 Elkhart-Goshen, IN Metro Area-Bus .................................................................................... C-77 Erie, PA Metro Area-Bus ...................................................................................................... C-78 Eugene-Springfield, OR Metro Area-Bus............................................................................. C-79 Evansville, IN-KY Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................... C-80 Fargo, ND-MN Metro Area-Bus........................................................................................... C-81 Fayetteville, NC Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-82 Flagstaff, AZ Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-83

viii Flint, MI Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................................... C-84 Fort Collins-Loveland, CO Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................ C-85 Fort Wayne, IN Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-86 Fresno, CA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-87 Gainesville, FL Metro Area-Bus........................................................................................... C-88 Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................... C-89 Great Falls, MT Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-90 Green Bay, WI Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-91 Greensboro-High Point, NC Metro Area-Bus ...................................................................... C-92 Gulfport-Biloxi, MS Metro Area-Bus................................................................................... C-93 Hanford-Corcoran, CA Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................. C-94 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................. C-95 Harrisonburg, VA Metro Area-Bus ...................................................................................... C-96 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Metro Area-Bus ............................................... C-97 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Metro Area-Rail ............................................... C-98 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metro Area-Bus ........................................................... C-99 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metro Area-Rail ........................................................ C-100 Huntsville, AL Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-101 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................... C-102 Iowa City, IA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-103 Ithaca, NY Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................ C-104 Jackson, MI Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-105 Jackson, MS Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................. C-106 Jacksonville, FL Metro Area-Bus ....................................................................................... C-107 Johnstown, PA Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-108 Kalamazoo-Portage, MI Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................... C-109 Kankakee-Bradley, IL Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................. C-110 Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................... C-111 Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, WA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................ C-112 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Metro Area-Bus ............................................................... C-113 Knoxville, TN Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-114 La Crosse, WI-MN Metro Area-Bus .................................................................................. C-115

ix Lafayette, IN Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-116 Lafayette, LA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-117 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL Metro Area-Bus .................................................................... C-118 Lansing-East Lansing, MI Metro Area-Bus........................................................................ C-119 Laredo, TX Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................... C-120 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................... C-121 Lebanon, PA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-122 Lexington-Fayette, KY Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................ C-123 Lincoln, NE Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-124 Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Metro Area-Bus ........................................... C-125 Logan, UT-ID Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-126 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................... C-127 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metro Area-Rail ............................................... C-128 Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area-Bus ....................................................... C-129 Lubbock, TX Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-130 Lynchburg, VA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-131 Madison, WI Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-132 Medford, OR Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-133 Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................. C-134 Merced, CA Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-135 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metro Area-Bus .......................................... C-136 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metro Area-Rail ......................................... C-137 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Metro Area-Bus .................................................... C-138 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area-Bus .......................................... C-139 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area-Rail .......................................... C-140 Missoula, MT Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-141 Mobile, AL Metro Area-Bus............................................................................................... C-142 Modesto, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-143 Montgomery, AL Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................... C-144 Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................ C-145 Muncie, IN Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................... C-146 Napa, CA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-147

x Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area-Bus ................................. C-148 New Haven-Milford, CT Metro Area-Bus.......................................................................... C-149 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA Metro Area-Bus ......................................................... C-150 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA Metro Area-Rail ......................................................... C-151 Ocala, FL Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-152 Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................. C-153 Olympia, WA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-154 Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................ C-155 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area-Bus ............................................................ C-156 Oshkosh-Neenah, WI Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................... C-157 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Metro Area-Bus ..................................................... C-158 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL Metro Area-Bus........................................................ C-159 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL Metro Area-Bus .............................................................. C-160 Peoria, IL Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-161 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area-Bus ............................... C-162 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area-Rail .............................. C-163 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metro Area-Bus ................................................................... C-164 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metro Area-Rail ................................................................... C-165 Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-166 Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area-Rail ......................................................................................... C-167 Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME Metro Area-Bus ................................................. C-168 Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME Metro Area-Rail ................................................. C-169 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area-Bus ................................................. C-170 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area-Rail................................................. C-171 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA Metro Area-Bus ......................................... C-172 Pueblo, CO Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................... C-173 Racine, WI Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................... C-174 Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area-Bus .................................................................................... C-175 Redding, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-176 Reno-Sparks, NV Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................... C-177 Richmond, VA Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-178 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area-Bus ................................................... C-179

xi Roanoke, VA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-180 Rochester, MN Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-181 Rochester, NY Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-182 Rockford, IL Metro Area-Bus............................................................................................. C-183 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................ C-184 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA Metro Area-Rail ........................................... C-185 Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI Metro Area-Bus .................................................. C-186 Salem, OR Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................ C-187 Salinas, CA Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-188 Salt Lake City, UT Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................... C-189 Salt Lake City, UT Metro Area-Rail ................................................................................... C-190 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area-Bus ............................................................. C-191 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metro Area-Bus ..................................................... C-192 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metro Area-Rail ..................................................... C-193 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area-Bus...................................................... C-194 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area-Rail ..................................................... C-195 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area-Bus ...................................................... C-196 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area-Rail ..................................................... C-197 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Metro Area-Bus.................................................................... C-198 Santa Fe, NM Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-199 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................ C-200 Savannah, GA Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-201 Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA Metro Area-Bus .................................................................... C-202 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................ C-203 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area-Rail ................................................................ C-204 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................... C-205 Sioux City, IA-NE-SD Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................. C-206 Sioux Falls, SD Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-207 Spokane, WA Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-208 Springfield, IL Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-209 Springfield, MO Metro Area-Bus ....................................................................................... C-210 St. Cloud, MN Metro Area-Bus .......................................................................................... C-211

xii St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................... C-212 St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area-Rail ..................................................................................... C-213 State College, PA Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................... C-214 Stockton, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................................ C-215 Syracuse, NY Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................... C-216 Tallahassee, FL Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-217 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area-Bus ..................................................... C-218 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area-Rail..................................................... C-219 Terre Haute, IN Metro Area-Bus ........................................................................................ C-220 Toledo, OH Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-221 Topeka, KS Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-222 Tucson, AZ Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-223 Tulsa, OK Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-224 Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................... C-225 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Metro Area-Bus ................................... C-226 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Metro Area-Rail ................................... C-227 Visalia-Porterville, CA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................................ C-228 Waco, TX Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................................. C-229 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area-Bus ............................ C-230 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area-Rail ........................... C-231 Wenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA Metro Area-Bus ............................................................ C-232 Wheeling, WV-OH Metro Area-Bus .................................................................................. C-233 Wichita, KS Metro Area-Bus .............................................................................................. C-234 Williamsport, PA Metro Area-Bus ..................................................................................... C-235 Winston-Salem, NC Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................. C-236 Worcester, MA Metro Area-Bus......................................................................................... C-237 York-Hanover, PA Metro Area-Bus ................................................................................... C-238 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA Metro Area-Bus ............................................... C-239 Yuba City, CA Metro Area-Bus ......................................................................................... C-240 Appendix D: Multi-City Evaluation Technical Methodology .................................................... D-1 Data ......................................................................................................................................... D-1 Model Estimation .................................................................................................................... D-2

xiii Model Application .................................................................................................................. D-4  References ............................................................................................................................... D-5  Appendix E: Multi-City Evaluation ............................................................................................. E-1  Appendix F: Modeling Framework for Temporal Dynamics ...................................................... F-1  Appendix G: Technical Methodology for Impacts of Shared E-Scooters on Bus Ridership ..... G-1  G.1  Data Used in the E-Scooter Analysis .......................................................................... G-1  G.2  Methodology ............................................................................................................... G-4  G.3  Results ....................................................................................................................... G-12  G.4  Discussion and Implications for Practice .................................................................. G-15  G.5  References ................................................................................................................. G-16  This document contains the appendices for TCRP Project A‐43 and accompanies TCRP Research Report 231:  Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership: Analysis, Causes, and Responses. Readers can read or  purchase TCRP Research Report 231 at www.trb.org.   

xiv List of Figures Figure B-1: New York - Northern New Jersey - Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area-Bus ..... B-3 Figure B-2: New York - Northern New Jersey - Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area-Rail ..... B-4 Figure E-1: High Operating Expenses Group - Observed versus Modeled Ridership - Bus ....... E-1 Figure E-2: Mid Operating Expenses Group - Observed versus Modeled Ridership - Bus ........ E-2 Figure E-3: Low Operating Expenses Group - Observed versus Modeled Ridership - Bus ....... E-2 Figure E-4: High Operating Expenses Group - Observed versus Modeled Ridership - Rail ...... E-3 Figure E-5: Mid Operating Expenses Group - Observed versus Modeled Ridership - Rail........ E-3 Figure G-1: Average daily shared e-scooters trips for Louisville for the period August 2018 to December 2019 ........................................................................................................................... G-2 Figure G-2: Shared e-scooters service area and TARC transit routes ........................................ G-3 Figure G-3 Example of shared e-scooter trips assignment to a local TARC transit route (Route 23 Broadway) for August 10, 2018.................................................................................................. G-5 Figure G-4: Heatmap of average shared e-scooters substitute trip count for each local TARC route for the period August 2018 to December 2019 ................................................................. G-6 Figure G-5: Example of shared e-scooter trips assignment to an express TARC transit route (Route 65 Sellersburg Express) for August 10, 2018 ................................................................. G-8 Figure G-6: Heatmap of the average daily shared e-scooters complement trip count for each express TARC route for the period August 2018 to December 2019 ......................................... G-9 List of Tables Table B-1: New York - Northern New Jersey - Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area-Bus Factors Affecting Change ........................................................................................................................ B-2 Table B-2: New York – Northern New Jersey – Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area-Rail Factors Affecting Change ........................................................................................................... B-2 Table F-1: Summary of Variable Definitions .............................................................................. F-1 Table G-1: Summary Statistics ................................................................................................. G-10 Table G-2: Fixed Effects Regression Results (Models 1–4) .................................................... G-13 Table G-3: Fixed Effects Regression Results (Models 5–12) .................................................. G-15