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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Evaluation of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26519.
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1

Introduction

The Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (TARAM) is a process for calculating risk associated with continued operational safety (COS) issues in the U.S. transport airplane fleet. TARAM is important because its risk-analysis calculations are used when making determinations of unsafe conditions in transport airplanes, and selecting and implementing corrective actions. TARAM is used by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for risk analysis and risk management decisions regarding COS. Aircraft certification offices use it to resolve COS issues for transport category airplanes. This methodology is also used by design-approval holders, in whole or in part, by agreement with the applicable aircraft certification office. The goal of this study is to assess the TARAM process used by the FAA.

STUDY ORIGIN

The origin of this study is a mandate contained within the Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act,1 signed into law on December 27, 2020. The Act aims to implement needed aircraft certification and safety reforms prompted in part from the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 MAX accidents. The Act aims to strengthen the FAA’s direct oversight of aircraft certification and implement new safety reporting requirements. Specifically, the Act’s Section 130 states:

SEC. 130. TRANSPORT AIRPLANE RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY.

  1. DEADLINES …
    1. AGREEMENT. Not later than 15 days after the date of enactment of this title, the Administrator shall enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences [sic] to develop a report regarding the methodology and effectiveness of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (TARAM) process used by the FAA.
  2. ELEMENTS. The report under subsection (a) shall include the following elements:
    1. An assessment of the TARAM analysis process.
    2. An assessment of the effectiveness of the TARAM for the purposes of improving aviation safety.
    3. Recommendations to improve the methodology and effectiveness of the TARAM as an element of aviation safety.

___________________

1 This Act is part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, included in it as DIVISION V—Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability.

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Evaluation of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26519.
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STATEMENT OF TASK

In accordance with the Act, the FAA entered into a contract with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies) to conduct a study to assess the TARAM process used by the FAA. The study statement of task is:

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) shall appoint an ad hoc committee to undertake a study that will assess the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (TARAM) process used by the Federal Aviation Administration. The study will:

  • Review the role and objectives of TARAM within the FAA’s overall safety oversight system,
  • Assess the TARAM analysis process,
  • Assess the effectiveness of the TARAM for the purposes of improving aviation safety, and
  • Provide recommendations to improve the methodology and effectiveness of the TARAM as an element of aviation safety.

STUDY SCOPE

The statement of task for this study effectively requires a deep understanding of the TARAM process, its usage, what inputs TARAM needs, the source of these inputs, and who executes the TARAM process itself. A further understanding is required of how and to what degree the TARAM process dovetails into the safety assessments of an aircraft performed during aircraft type certification. In assessing TARAM effectiveness, examples of the application of TARAM will need to be reviewed. From the TARAM analysis prediction to the oversight in incorporating TARAM results into the FAA’s continued operational safety (COS) decision-making process, the overall TARAM process will need to be studied. To provide recommendations to improve the methodology and TARAM effectiveness, case studies will be needed to thoroughly understand any missed opportunities for improvement in aviation safety. A general understanding of how this TARAM process became an FAA requirement, how long it has been a requirement, and what FAA group is responsible for ensuring that it is used as intended, will also be required.

STUDY APPROACH

To conduct the study, the National Academies appointed the Committee on Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology under the auspices of its Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board within the Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences. The committee and staff biographies are found in Appendix B.

To understand the study origin and context, the committee heard from the congressional committee staff. To understand the TARAM analysis process and how it is used in support of aircraft COS, the committee first held informational reviews with the FAA leadership team. These were followed by informational reviews with key FAA technical experts responsible for the formulation of the TARAM process. These FAA technical experts had helped define the TARAM process as well as publish a TARAM Handbook with instructions on how to execute the process. The committee also heard from a retired former FAA technical expert who led the formulation of the TARAM process. The FAA experts went through two examples, one of a constant failure rate and another on a wear-out failure, with a step-by-step presentation through the entire process. A multitude of questions were answered with respect to the process itself but also the parameters which are used in the statistical analysis within the process. These parameters govern how quantitative data and qualitative assessments would lead to the conclusions of the statistical analysis.

To understand how the Aircraft Certification Offices (ACOs) use the TARAM process, the committee received a briefing from the Aviation Safety COS Program Management with the FAA on the Seattle Aircraft Certification Office (SACO) Transport Airplane Safety Manual and examples of its use.

To further assess whether parameters within the TARAM analysis process are similar to other industry or federal agency processes that deal with safety concerns, the committee received a presentation from the National Aero-

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Evaluation of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26519.
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nautics and Space Administration on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission on how risk analysis is used for decision-making regarding utilities’ and manufacturers’ performance.

The committee also independently reviewed the FAA’s Policy Statement PS-ANM-25-05 Risk Assessment Methodology for Transport Category Airplanes dated November 4, 2011, referencing Safety Management System (SMS), the FAA’s Aircraft Certification Service (AIR) Order 8110.107A Monitor Safety/Analyze Data (MSAD) dated October 1, 2012, the FAA’s Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (TARAM) Handbook dated November 4, 2011, and SACO’s Transport Airplane Safety Manual, released September 1, 2021. This was completed to understand not only the defined ownership for TARAM analysis and its details but also the FAA’s role in assessing unsafe conditions.

In any probabilistic assessment of aviation safety, qualitative and quantitative factors are available. While it is desirable for as many as possible of the factors to be quantitative, the complex and varied operations of the commercial aviation industry often do not easily lend themselves to purely quantitative treatment. For qualitative factors, it is desirable to establish proper conservatism. It has been the committee’s responsibility to understand how these factors can affect the analysis and the eventual safety assessment. The committee was aided by this approach in addressing its statement of task and arriving at the findings and recommendations found in this report.

The various time frames expressed in the recommendations are based on the direct experience of committee members who have served on FAA Aviation Rulemaking Committees; FAA Advisory Committees, including Commercial Aviation Safety Team and industry co-chair of the FAA Aviation Safety Analysis and Information Sharing program; and RTCA Special Committees.

REPORT CONTENT

This chapter provided the study origin, statement of task, scope, and approach. Chapter 2 provides an overview of TARAM. Chapter 3 discusses the role and objectives of TARAM within the FAA’s overall safety oversight system and provides some related findings and recommendations. Chapters 4 through 6 provide detailed improvements to TARAM—inputs to TARAM, the TARAM process, and use of TARAM results, including the findings and recommendations in each of these three areas. The appendixes provide current TARAM process details, committee and staff biographical information, and a list of acronyms found in this report.

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Evaluation of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26519.
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Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Evaluation of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26519.
×
Page 8
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Evaluation of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26519.
×
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The Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (TARAM) is a process for calculating risk associated with continued operational safety issues in the U.S. transport airplane fleet. TARAM is important because its risk-analysis calculations are used when making determinations of unsafe conditions in transport airplanes and when selecting and implementing corrective actions. This report assesses the TARAM process used by the FAA in its efforts to improve the overall safety of the transport airplane fleet. A healthy safety culture requires commitment to continuous improvement. This report provides recommendations to the FAA to address the gaps and strengthen the TARAM.

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