Understanding
the Quality of the
2020 Census

INTERIM REPORT

Panel to Evaluate the Quality of the 2020 Census

Teresa A. Sullivan and Daniel L. Cork, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Consensus Study Report of

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

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The project that is the subject of this report was supported by the U.S. Census Bureau through a task order under Contract No. 1333LB21D00000003. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (No. SES-1024012). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68634-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-68634-2
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26529

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2022). Understanding the Quality of the 2020 Census: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26529.

PANEL TO EVALUATE THE QUALITY OF THE 2020 CENSUS

TERESA A. SULLIVAN (Chair), Department of Sociology, University of Virginia

MARGO ANDERSON, Department of History, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee (emerita)

ROBERT M. BELL,^∗ Google and AT&T Labs (retired)

KATHRYN EDIN, Department of Sociology, Princeton University

MARC HAMEL, Statistics Canada (retired)

GEORGE T. LIGLER, GTL Associates, Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina

THOMAS A. LOUIS,^∗ Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University (emeritus)

LLOYD B. POTTER,^∗ Texas Demographic Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

JOSEPH J. SALVO,^∗ University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute and National Conference on Citizenship

REGINA SHIH, Social and Behavioral Policy, RAND, Arlington, Virginia

C. MATTHEW SNIPP, School of the Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University

EDWARD TELLES, Department of Sociology, University of California, Irvine

WENDY UNDERHILL, National Conference of State Legislatures, Denver

DAVID VAN RIPER,^∗ Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota

DANIEL CORK, Study Director

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar

MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Program Officer

ANTHONY MANN, Senior Program Associate

KATRINA BAUM STONE, Senior Program Officer

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Office of the Provost, Georgetown University

LAWRENCE D. BOBO, Department of Sociology, Harvard University

ANNE C. CASE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Emeritus

MICK P. COUPER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

JANET M. CURRIE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University

DIANA FARRELL, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT GOERGE, Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago

ERICA L. GROSHEN, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University

HILARY HOYNES, Goldman School of Public Policy and Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

DANIEL KIFER, Department of Computer Science, Pennsylvania State University

SHARON LOHR, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Emeritus

JEROME P. REITER, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University

JUDITH A. SELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, Emeritus

C. MATTHEW SNIPP, School of the Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University

ELIZABETH A. STUART, Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

JEANNETTE WING, Data Science Institute and Computer Science Department, Columbia University

BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Director

MELISSA CHIU, Deputy Director

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar

Acknowledgments

The Panel to Evaluate the Quality of the 2020 Census wishes to thank the many people who have contributed to its work during its first year of operation and to this first report.

We appreciate the support of the Census Bureau, under the acting directorship of Ron Jarmin, and its encouragement of independent, external review of the 2020 Census. Karen Deaver has been a fine collaborator as primary information conduit between the panel and the Census Bureau, and the panel has benefited from the interest and actions of Albert Fontenot and Deborah Stempowski as heads of the decennial census directorate. We have also benefited greatly from interactions with key Census Bureau staff in John Abowd, Maryann Chapin, Jennifer Ortman, and Victoria Velkoff.

Beyond those already named, we appreciate the contributions of Census Bureau staff who presented and discussed material with the panel during its open meetings, including: Tamara Adams, Willette Allen, Robin Bachman, Dominic Beamer, Judy Belton, Christine Flanagan Borman, Patrick Cantwell, Richard Denby, Jason Devine, Daniel Donello, Dora Durante, Monique Eleby, Christine Hartley, Michael Hawes, Kristen Hearns, Joan Hill, Cynthia Davis Hollingsworth, Eric Jensen, Andrea Johnson, Timothy Kennel, Sarah Konya, Julia Lopez, Barbara LoPresti, Nicholas Jones, Frank McPhillips, Rachel Marks, RJ Marquette, Leanna Mayo, Thomas Mule, Roberto Ramirez, Jennifer Reichert, Rita Schuler, Kathleen Styles, Ben Taylor, Kevin Zajac, and Mary Frances Zelenak.

At our August 30, 2021, meeting, we benefited from a roundtable discussion with several members of the 2020 Census field staff. Though identified and selected by the Census Bureau’s Field Division—the group was not intended to constitute a completely representative sample of the 2020 Census field experience—the staffers were nonetheless candid and informative in describing their experiences. The five participants in this session (with at least one of the

titles they held during the conduct of the 2020 Census) were: Diana Harris Cannon, area census office manager (ACOM) in DeKalb County, Georgia; Jon Hallingstad, ACOM in Allentown, Pennsylvania; Robert Lee, census field manager and area manager in Queens, New York; Robert Leibowitz, area manager for nonresponse follow-up in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont; and Robert Toth, also ACOM in Allentown before becoming area manager in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, area. We are grateful for their insights.

We join our Census Bureau colleagues in mourning the untimely passing of James Treat, most recently the senior advisor for decennial affairs at the Census Bureau, in October 2021. He was a stalwart contributor to and facilitator of numerous census-related activities of the Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT), and—though he did not have extensive interaction with our panel—it was inevitable that we would have been in frequent touch regarding his work on initial visions and planning for the 2030 Census. It is a great loss that this is no longer possible.

We also benefited greatly from a briefing and discussion with Nancy Potok and John Thompson after the release of the American Statistical Association’s Task Force on Census Quality Indicators at the panel’s third meeting. In particular, we appreciate conversations with Paul Biemer, RTI International, who was engaged along with our colleague Joseph Salvo as primary data analyst for the task force. At our fourth meeting, we invited a small group of select census stakeholders to share their initial impressions on the conduct and quality of the 2020 Census, and very much appreciate their contributions to our work: Clark Bensen, POLIDATA Political Data Analysis; Kimball Brace, Election Data Services, Inc.; Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer; Gwynne Evans-Lomayesva, National Congress of American Indians; Eric Guthrie, Minnesota State Demographic Center and formerly Michigan State Demographer; and Bill O’Hare, O’Hare Data and Demographic Services.

The COVID-19 pandemic affected not only the careful planning of the Census Bureau, but the timeline and working conditions for this panel as well. We could not have done this work without a helpful and dedicated staff. Many members of the CNSTAT and National Academies staff facilitated our work. Constance Citro, senior scholar, offered us wise counsel at every point and participated in all our sessions. Her knowledge and experience with the census proved invaluable to us. Michael Cohen’s assistance to the data analysis subgroup has been critical to their progress. Katrina Baum Stone is bringing her experience with several federal statistical agencies to bear on our work on the census. Anthony Mann handles panel logistics, not a simple task given the need for all meetings to be virtual, with various members and interviewees having connectivity issues and time zone constraints. Brian Harris-Kojetin, as the CNSTAT director, has served as the lead contact on the Census Bureau contract and has offered us helpful information at timely moments.

Our heartiest thank-you goes to Daniel Cork, the study director, who has had to deal with the minutiae of multiple subtopics, shifting data points, and often conflicting suggestions from the panelists and others. His candor, objectivity, and perseverance made this interim report possible.

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Russel E. Caflisch, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University; Dowell Myers, Population Dynamics Research Group, Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California; Barbara Entwisle, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Ivan P. Fellegi, retired, Statistics Canada; Sunshine Hillygus, Duke Initiative on Survey Methodology, Duke University; Mario Marazzi, former executive director, Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics; Nicholas N. Nagle, Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville; Christine Pierce, U.S. Media Operations, Nielsen; Allison Plyer, Office of Chief Demographer, The Data Center, New Orleans, Louisiana; and Lance Waller, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Susan Hanson, Department of Geography, Clark University, and Susan A. Murphy, Department of Statistics, Harvard University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Teresa A. Sullivan, Chair
Panel to Evaluate the Quality of the 2020 Census

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Contents

Summary

1 Introduction

1.1 The Panel, Its Charge, and Its Operations

1.2 Data Analysis Subgroup

1.3 Overview of This Report

2 Frameworks for Understanding the Decennial Census and Its Quality

2.1 Types of Error in a Decennial Census

2.2 What Is the Decennial Census? Census Quality in the Context of Census Data Uses and Purposes

2.3 How Census Error and Census Data Quality May Be Assessed

3 Other Evaluations of the 2020 Census

3.1 JASON Review of 2020 Census Data Quality Processes

3.2 American Statistical Association Task Force on 2020 Census Quality Indicators

3.3 Census Bureau’s Operational Quality Metric Releases

3.4 Panel’s Assessment

4 Initial Conclusions and the Path Ahead

4.1 Initial Conclusions on the 2020 Census

4.2 The Path Ahead for Assessing the 2020 Census

References

Appendixes

A Glossary and Abbreviations

B Public Meeting Agendas

C Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff

Boxes, Figure, and Tables

BOXES

1.1 The Shifting End Date for 2020 Census Field Data Collection

2.1 Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency, 2021

3.1 JASON (2021) Recommendations

3.2 American Statistical Association 2020 Census Quality Indicators Task Force (2020) Recommendations, First Report

3.3 American Statistical Association 2020 Census Quality Indicators Task Force (2021) Conclusions and Recommendations, Final Report

FIGURE

2.1 Component operations of the 2020 Census, by major functional categories

TABLES

1.1 Original, Initial Replanned, and Final Milestone and Operational Dates in the 2020 Census

3.1 American Statistical Association Task Force Data Analysis, Process Statistics by Major Census Phase

3.2 Final Status of Addresses in the 2010 and 2020 Censuses

3.3 Resolution of Housing Unit Enumeration in the 2010 and 2020 Censuses

3.4 Item Nonresponse Rates in the 2010 and 2020 Censuses

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