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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
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Summary

The agencies within the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) depend on advanced technology to achieve their goals. The IC’s missions require it to have the broadest possible insights into, and access to, scientific research, technology discovery and development, and engineering wherever in the world that may occur. Science and technology (S&T) is a major driver of strategic competition with China, Russia, and other adversaries, commands high priority within the IC, and deserves more attention across all IC agencies.

This observation is not new. A particularly relevant examination appears in the January 2021 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report Maintaining the Intelligence Edge: Reimagining and Reinventing Intelligence Through Innovation.1 That report highlighted the need for the IC to relentlessly pursue competitive advantage relative to our principal adversaries, particularly by reimagining and reinventing methods to leverage technological innovation. Its focus was on the use of technological innovations that are enabled by “artificial intelligence (AI) and associated emerging technologies, including cloud computing, advanced sensors, and big data analytics.” It pointed to the need for both culture change and the mastery of global S&T advances. It offers more than 100 recommendations for how the IC should respond.

Because most of the recommendations in the CSIS report are directed toward internal adjustments to IC institutions, the current report focuses more on improving external connections, as covered in Chapters 3 to 5—how the IC can better leverage S&T knowledge across the broader government, domestic, and global S&T environments. In addition, this report looks more broadly at the full range of S&T to recommend how the IC can (1) innovate and leverage advances from all fields of S&T; (2) be better positioned to identify, track, and employ S&T advances in the service of the core intelligence missions of collection, analysis, and distribution; and (3) improve coordination of S&T intelligence (S&TI) to advance the core intelligence missions of preventing strategic surprise and causing strategic surprise to adversaries. The need for such a broadened approach also is not new. The “whole of government approach” is generally considered essential to meet serious and growing challenges of foreign origin, not only via direct interference but also in the areas of economic and scientific competition. Similar observations have been

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1 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2021, Maintaining the Intelligence Edge: Reimagining and Reinventing Intelligence Through Innovation, a report of the CSIS Technology and Intelligence Task Force, Washington, DC, January.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×

enunciated by diverse experts, for example from the Congress, the private sector, and prominent congressionally directed commissions, including the recent Solarium and AI commissions.”2

Several external factors over recent decades have heightened the importance of S&T to the IC. The growth of commercial enterprises based on cutting-edge S&T—for example, AI-based software and the use of big data, advanced computing, microelectronics, biotechnology, novel materials, and other developments—means that technology and its applications are progressing rapidly on multiple fronts. And many of these developments are occurring not only in open environments such as universities and government laboratories but also in commercial firms. At the same time, this increased commercialization of S&T is also becoming more international. That is especially true for fields such as life sciences research and development (R&D), telecom, and computing-based technologies that have taken root in multiple countries. On top of these trends is China’s ascension as an economic and political rival, and as a global leader in S&T. The IC in general needs a more effective mechanism than it currently has to gain this knowledge and understanding—what the committee calls “S&T awareness”—and to feed relevant information where it is needed within the IC for S&TI and for mission support. In order to assimilate a full picture of significant global scientific activities, especially those deriving from developments in emerging technologies, one cannot—and should not—rely on intelligence agency sources alone. A useful understanding of current, vital progress in many fields must be filled out by continual input from other U.S. agencies, laboratories, federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs), research universities, and the private sector. Unlike the IC, these all have ready access to expert scientists, who interact with foreign partners and with national and international scientific bodies and networks.

These trends combine to imply a pressing need for the IC both to enhance its awareness of these advances and to innovatively incorporate these capabilities into the various IT missions. Those capabilities must support the IC in several ways:

  • Generating and maintaining S&T awareness—which includes S&T from all sources that could be useful—to enable recognizing and tapping external S&T advances to support IC operations, including collection, analysis, support, and management. These external advances are in addition to the IC’s internal S&T investments.
  • Carrying out S&TI—which consists of collecting and analyzing information about current S&T advances, particularly by adversaries or that may be used by adversaries—in order to prevent surprise, to be able to surprise adversaries, to negate adversarial advantage, or to provide advantage to the United States. Whereas information for S&T awareness can be provided by a broad range of technically trained people, collecting and analyzing for S&TI requires specialized skills and training (intelligence tradecraft). Multiple agencies contribute to this part of the mission, and their work needs to be coordinated. S&TI has traditionally been focused on assessing S&T of adversaries, using open-source and classified means. For this task, there are existent coordinators in place like the National Intelligence Manager for S&T and the National Intelligence Officer for S&T. With the rise in S&T competencies abroad and in the academic and commercial sectors, the target space for S&TI has expanded greatly.
  • Creating new capabilities through the IC’s own investments.

The IC’s ability to adopt and leverage S&T advances and to perform S&TI are intimately linked; both call for a high priority on in-depth understanding of S&T. These two broad functions must be better integrated and coordinated across the IC. Strengthening the IC’s capabilities in S&T also calls for it to take greater advantage of not only its own S&T capabilities but also those within other government agencies, across the whole of the nation, and globally. At present, the IC is not as effective as it needs to be in knowing about and agilely implementing advances that come from the global S&T ecosystem. As a result, there is a growing risk that the United States may be surprised by its strategic competitors and adversaries and may forfeit opportunities to surprise them at key times.

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2 Cyberspace Solarium Commission, 2020, United States of America, Cyberspace Solarium Commission Final Report, March, https://www.solarium.gov/report; National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, 2021, Final Report: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, https://www.nscai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full-Report-Digital-1.pdf.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×

At present, the IC’s connections with the broader S&T community are insufficient. One reason is security concerns that make it difficult for the IC to let potential S&T partners know about the IC’s mission requirements. However, the risk of missing critical advances and being out of touch with current S&T must also be considered. It is no longer realistic to expect the United States to dominate the S&T frontier in all fields. In technical domains in which the United States is not the unequivocal leader, it may be preferable for the IC to engage openly with the global S&T community. Particularly in the instance of expensive, high-risk endeavors, the likelihood that IC-funded research done in isolation will be first to achieve a vital outcome is small. The greater risk is failing to be the first and then having to take significant time catching up with the rest of the world. It is the consensus view of the study committee that in some cases, the risk of not having access to the world’s best researchers in a timely manner outweighs the attendant security risks of engaging with the open research community. In those cases, the security concerns can often be mitigated.

In addition, in the experience of the study committee, the IC is viewed as having in some aspects a fairly insular and risk-averse culture in regards to S&T investment and technology adoption. This often supports decisions to prioritize short-term and intermediate-term developmental activities, such as the development and implementation of S&T advances, over investing in, performing, or tracking higher-risk, often early-stage research. Early-stage research (e.g., technology readiness levels 1-3) is inherently riskier,3 and generally takes longer to produce practical advantage. Finally, security constraints and federal acquisition practices deter many potential S&T partners (e.g., universities, multinational companies, and some non-IC federal agencies) from working with the IC. However, some changes are being made, such as the new authorities granted to CIA Labs.

These challenges were major drivers for the CSIS report mentioned above, and they apply not only to the AI-based technologies emphasized there but also to the full range of S&T. While AI, cloud computing, advanced sensors, and big data analytics (technologies emphasized in the CSIS report) will fundamentally change both the global threat landscape and the IC’s tradecraft, advances from biology, chemistry, materials, quantum science, network science, social/behavioral/economic sciences, and other fields also have that potential.

In the course of conducting this study, the Committee on Leveraging the Future Research and Development Ecosystem for the Intelligence Community held two workshops and carried out a number of interviews and other exchanges with people knowledgeable about the IC’s approach to S&T. (Summaries of the workshops are included in Appendixes A and B.) Those investigations, plus the depth of experience of the committee members, led to the following observations that underpin this report:

  • In today’s world, maintaining awareness of advances in S&T is more essential than ever, to avoid S&T surprise, to inflict surprise on adversaries, and to leverage those advances for the benefit of the nation and the IC.
  • The IC, although cognizant of this need and strong in some aspects of S&T, does not give S&T the priority it merits.
  • The best way to maintain awareness of S&T advances is through personal interactions between skilled IC experts and external scientists and engineers; S&T understanding is transmitted through expert networks, and not nearly as well through more passive means.
  • The IC’s existing efforts to track and leverage S&T need to be expanded, better coordinated, and given a higher priority.

In order to improve its capabilities for leveraging S&T, the committee concluded that the IC needs to address four major questions:

  1. How can the IC agencies determine how best to spend their S&T funds, and how can those individual investments be coordinated across the IC? Better coordination—but not centralized management—would be valuable.

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3 Note that associated manufacturing readiness levels should be considered along with respective technology readiness levels.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
  1. How can the IC derive best value from—and influence as appropriate—the investments of other U.S. government agencies?
  2. How can the IC gain best benefit from the efforts of U.S. industry and academia (including both in R&D and in education) and national laboratories?
  3. How can the IC best interact with the global S&T enterprise? Failing to engage with the increasingly globalized S&T environment risks forgoing what may be the best available technology and raises the likelihood of technological surprise. On the other hand, there are also risks associated with adversarial access to critical S&T and on reliance on technology that adversaries originate, dominate, own, or control.

Analysis of these four broad questions is the primary focus of the report.

KEY RECOMMENDATION

The committee’s analysis of the four broad questions above led to the following recommendation. This echoes the recommendation in the Intelligence Edge report that a chief technology officer position be established for the IC.

RECOMMENDATION 2.1: The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) should consider elevating the priority of science and technology (S&T) by clearly designating an individual to strengthen these Intelligence Community (IC) capabilities. This individual—a chief technology and innovation officer (CTIO)—would report to the Director of National Intelligence, serve as Chief S&T Advisor to the Director, and be charged with the following responsibilities:

  • Develop and maintain healthy sharing and participatory relationships across the IC and between it and many relevant domestic and global S&T entities.
  • Identify S&T trends with special IC relevance and plan balanced programs of open-source and classified collection and analysis to enable their expedited development and utilization.
  • Lead efforts to integrate and coordinate S&T awareness and science and technology intelligence (S&TI). Because S&TI and S&T awareness require different skill sets, and the organizational cultures endemic to each function differ considerably, the CTIO would need to be fully conscious of these differences while fostering shared capacity and understanding to benefit both enterprises.
  • Convert this heightened strength in S&T to operational advantage more rapidly and agilely.
  • Maintain a diverse, skilled team, selected from within the IC, to be deployed to support the above activities deemed critical to the S&TI mission.

ODNI already has a Director for S&T, but with a more limited remit and placed somewhat lower in the organization. The goal of this recommendation is to raise the visibility of S&T—assigning it to someone who reports directly to the Director of National Intelligence—and broadening the responsibilities. The committee is agnostic on whether to accomplish those goals by recasting the existing position or adding a new one. The paragraphs that follow further describe the important roles and functions of a CTIO.

This function needs to be centralized within ODNI through an office that interfaces with the global S&T enterprises, and then interfaces with the relevant IC agency S&T directorates and managers, and—separately—with those individual agency components that conduct S&TI. The purpose would be to aid those directorates and components, which would maintain primary responsibility for mission support or for S&TI. Each of these activities—using S&T for mission support, and S&TI—requires specialized skills already resident in the individual agencies, but that could be strengthened.

The CTIO should be technically astute and administratively skilled, and be given the authorities to be effective in the roles recommended here. Among those authorities, the CTIO would need to establish incentives (and reduce disincentives) for IC and non-IC entities to mutually participate in and share early results from S&T activities that may have special relevance for IC mission enhancement. The committee is not envisioning a “czar” with strong

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×

powers across the IC, but rather an individual and office specialized in managing these issues because they have become more prominent and impactful.

The exact roles, responsibilities, and authorities of the CTIO would be developed by the IC’s leadership (with the approval of Congress if legislative changes are needed). The primary goal in the committee’s vision is that the CTIO will need a very good understanding of what is going on across the IC: what is working well, and what is not; what shortcomings there are in the IC (or in a particular agency) regarding S&T knowledge; how external changes will affect this; and whether there are new S&T tools that could be used to improve efficiency. Based on a good understanding and process for staying current on what is happening across the IC, the CTIO would have to understand what is happening in the broad S&T community and identify areas that can help solve problems or close gaps internal to the IC. Building on this base, the office would develop and execute a process to fulfill these goals and incentivize key stakeholders to contribute to them. The committee recommends the following responsibilities:

  • Outward-facing responsibilities
    • Establish and operate a coordination mechanism for S&TI carried out across the IC. This mechanism might include recruiting and assigning technically astute and operationally savvy IC S&T Liaison Officers to work closely with domestic and foreign non-IC entities, and integrate their findings and insights to maintain an awareness of the global S&T landscape.
    • Establish an S&T evaluation and assessment activity that analyzes the information gleaned from the previous item and, as needed, apprise the DNI and raise attention within the elements of the IC that are best suited to utilize the information. This activity can also feed special requests to the Liaison Officers and open-source analysts.
    • Broaden the IC’s engagement with relevant FFRDCs, the Department of Defense’s university affiliated research centers (UARCs), and selected academic institutions that do classified research, all of which can also provide indirect links to private industry S&T. The CTIO could facilitate partnerships and bilateral arrangements when opportunities to advance IC impact could be achieved via collaboration.
    • Expand the IC’s collaborations with private corporations, non-profits, and academic institutions performing unclassified basic and applied research, including systems engineering that may have potential applications to the IC mission and pre-competitive R&D.
    • Coordinate international S&T activities across the IC and make international S&T a high priority, such as through more open engagement with allies.
  • Inward-facing responsibilities
    • Serve as a high-level champion for the IC’s efforts to develop or acquire and deploy transformational S&T from wherever it may arise. This could include a CTIO funding mechanism, but promising S&T capabilities relative to a particular mission area should still be managed by the agency program manager responsible for that mission and for subsequently demonstrating proof-of-concept, engineering for tailored uses, and deployment.
    • Establish and promulgate technical standards and processes to lead IC entities in transitioning S&T to reliable, high-quality operational capabilities (e.g., standards for test, evaluation, and validation including standards for independent technical review); care must be taken that this setting of standards does not become more check blocks administered through oversight.
    • Ensure that S&T best practices and S&T results (within the constraints of necessary compartmentalization) from each agency’s S&T activities are shared among constituent members of the IC S&T community.

ADDITIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS

In addition to the above overarching committee recommendation, other recommendations of this report are given below, with the first digit of each one indicating the chapter in which it is found.

These recommendations are offered in a general sense (“The IC should … ”), recognizing that actual implementation would have to be assigned to specific S&T offices within ODNI and/or other IC agencies, and

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×

recognizing that, to varying degrees, some agencies are already doing some of these things. The purpose of this report is to give advice to ODNI regarding handling of S&T at its level, and not to prescribe specific actions to individual agencies. ODNI would have a special role in coordinating the implementation of these recommendations within and across the agencies, and in formulating policy regarding these recommendations.

RECOMMENDATION 2.2: The Intelligence Community should increase its ability to mine open-source science and technology (S&T) information while remaining consistent with prevailing policies and laws regarding privacy protections. It must enable integrating open-source S&T information with classified intelligence.

RECOMMENDATION 3.1: The Intelligence Community (IC) should position itself to take better advantage of opportunities afforded by interagency science and technology (S&T) committees and other contacts with non-IC agencies that have substantial S&T activities. More interagency staff exchanges would be helpful, as would more active IC participation in cross-agency research and development. Successful activities on the part of some IC agencies should be studied and mined for best practices.

RECOMMENDATION 3.2: The Intelligence Community (IC) should engage in more active partnering with Department of Energy and Department of Defense laboratories (government, federally funded research and development centers, and university affiliated research center laboratories), to take advantage of their extensive infrastructure and capabilities as well as to employ them as a vehicle for expanding the IC’s access to academic and industrial research and development activities through overt relationships. The IC should increase its engagement with various laboratory program review activities.

RECOMMENDATION 4.1: The Intelligence Community (IC) should encourage its technical experts to engage more extensively on a professional level with their peers outside the relatively small IC environment. This would involve attending conferences in their respective fields of expertise, making presentations, and giving talks at other institutions, all with home agency support regarding travel, leave, and expenses. In addition, IC agency experts should be rewarded for inviting outside scientists and engineers to give talks at their home IC agencies. If the proposal to establish a chief technology and innovation officer within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence is accepted, that office would be an ideal place to encourage and oversee these practices.

RECOMMENDATION 4.2: To institutionalize increased professional interactions between Intelligence Community (IC) science and technology experts and the rest of the technical world, IC agencies should consider establishing more rotational positions for leading researchers from academia and the private sector, including start-up and venture capital communities. Because SCI level clearances often require a long approval time and impose lifelong prepublication restrictions, some of the rotational positions should be established at both the unclassified and SECRET levels. The lower security level is often subject to a quicker security clearance process than is now practical for the higher level clearances more typical of IC staff. That said, because TS/SCI clearances are usually standard for IC staff, they should be expedited when possible for rotational positions.

RECOMMENDATION 4.3: The Intelligence Community (IC) should consider emulating some of the Department of Defense’s outreach efforts to scientists and engineers in research and development in order to establish trusted collaborations with academia and the private sector. Some of this is being accomplished in the IC, for example, in programs such as IC Scholarships and IC Centers for Academic Excellence. Such efforts should be expanded significantly to develop a trusted community of external researchers. This would be especially useful for engaging researchers without a long history of working with the IC.

RECOMMENDATION 4.4: The Intelligence Community (IC) should adopt more forward leaning policies for working with commercial industry to support joint IC-commercial technology development, such as data sharing, as well as acquisition approaches targeted at more effective scaling and implementation of commercial

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×

technologies, such as bridge funding. Note that data sharing should go both ways: from the industry partner to the IC agency as well. In both cases, the IC should, by working directly with industry, become part of the technology development process. Additionally, a benefit to the IC of collaboration with the private sector would be increased science and technology awareness. The IC should adopt more active policies for working with commercial industry to support joint IC-commercial technology development, such as data sharing, as well as acquisition approaches such as bridge funding targeted at more effective scaling and implementation of commercial technologies.

RECOMMENDATION 5.1: Within its mining of open-source information in general, the Intelligence Community should increase the collection of open-source information on science and technology advances and early stage companies in foreign nations. The chief technology and innovation officer could coordinate these activities and potentially assign and/or post specialists to cover key regions and countries.

RECOMMENDATION 5.2: The Intelligence Community (IC) should increase its interactions with FVEY (Five Eyes, the intelligence partnership among the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand) and other allies through four steps:

RECOMMENDATION 5.3: The Intelligence Community (IC) should work to establish a center (e.g., a nonprofit or at a federally funded research and development center or university affiliated research center) operated external to the IC, focused on open-source science and technology (S&T) information collection. This center should take full advantage of collection opportunities, through a presence at international symposia, where potential competitors display their state-of-the-art efforts in mission-critical areas, such as semiconductors, information technology, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, quantum computing/sensing, biotechnology, and other emergent fields of S&T.

Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Improving the Intelligence Community's Leveraging of the Full Science and Technology Ecosystem. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26544.
×
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The agencies within the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) depend on advanced technology to achieve their goals. While AI, cloud computing, advanced sensors, and big data analytics will fundamentally change both the global threat landscape and IC tradecraft, advances from biology, chemistry, materials, quantum science, network science, social/behavioral/economic sciences, and other fields also have that potential. Maintaining awareness of advances in science and technology is more essential than ever, to avoid surprise, to inflict surprise on adversaries, and to leverage those advances for the benefit of the nation and the IC. This report explores ways in which the IC might leverage the future research and development ecosystem.

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