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International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68994-6
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26608.

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COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

JERRY M. MELILLO (Chair), Distinguished Scientist and Director Emeritus, Marine Biological Laboratory

KRISTIE L. EBI (Vice Chair), Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences and of Global Health, University of Washington

SUSAN ANENBERG, Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health, George Washington University

SARA R. CURRAN, Professor of International Studies, Sociology, and Director of the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington

PAUL FLEMING, Global Water Program Manager, Microsoft Corporation

SARAH K. FORTNER, Science Education Associate, Carleton College

MIRIAM GAY-ANTAKI, Assistant Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico

SHERRI W. GOODMAN, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, CNA Analysis & Solutions, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

ALISON M. GRANTHAM, Founder and Principal, Grow Well Consulting, LLC

KIMBERLY L. JONES, Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Education, Professor of Architecture, and Chair of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Howard University

VALERIE KARPLUS, Associate Professor, Carnegie Mellon University

CARLOS E. MARTÍN, Rubenstein Fellow, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program, The Brookings Institution

LINDA O. MEARNS, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research

PHILIP W. MOTE, Professor, Vice Provost, and Dean of the Graduate School, Oregon State University

DEB A. NIEMEIER, Clark Distinguished Chair and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland

OSVALDO E. SALA, Julie A Wrigley Professor of Life Sciences and Sustainability, Reagents’ and Foundation Professor, Arizona State University

PAUL A. SANDIFER, Director, Center for Coastal Environmental and Human Health, College of Charleston

HENRY G. SCHWARTZ, JR., Independent Consultant

RACHAEL SHWOM, Associate Professor, Acting Director of Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University

JOEL B. SMITH, Independent Consultant

ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Professor Emeritus of High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University

JULIE A. VANO, Research Director, Aspen Global Change Institute

ALYSSA K. WHITCRAFT, Associate Research Professor, University of Maryland

GABRIELLE WONG-PARODI, Assistant Professor, Center Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

BRIAN L. ZUCKERMAN, Research Staff Member, Science and Technology Policy Institute

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

STEVEN STICHTER, Study Director

THOMAS THORNTON, Board Director of Board on Environmental Change and Society

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer

LINDSAY MOLLER, Program Assistant

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

MARY GLACKIN (Chair), Senior Vice President, The Weather Company, an IBM Business

CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Director of Science, Heising-Simons Foundation

CECILIA BITZ, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington

JOHN C. CHIANG, Faculty Scientist, University of California

BRAD R. COLMAN, Director of Weather Strategy, The Climate Corporation

BART E. CROES, Retired Research Division Chief, California Air Resources Board

ROBERT B. DUNBAR, William M. Keck Professor of Earth Science, Stanford University

EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU, Distinguished Professor and Henry Samueli Endowed Chair at the Samueli School of Engineering, University of California

PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Director of Science and Policy and Chief Climate Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists

VANDA GRUBIŠIC, Associate Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research

ROBERT KOPP, Director of the Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences and Professor, Rutgers University

RUBY LEUNG, Battelle Fellow and Affiliate Scientist, Pacific North West National Laboratory and National Center for Atmospheric Research

ZHANQING LI, Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

JONATHAN MARTIN, Professor and Chair of the Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison

AMY MCGOVERN, Lloyd G. and Joyce Austin Presidential professor in the School of Computer Sciences, Oklahoma State University

JONATHAN A. PATZ, Director of the Global Health Institute and Professor and John P. Holton Chair of Health and the Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison

J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and Director, University of Georgia

ALLISON STEINER, Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan

DAVID W. TITLEY, Professor of Practice in Meteorology, Director of the Center for Solutions to Weather & Climate Risk, Pennsylvania State University

ARADHNA TRIPATI, Assistant Professor of the Institute of the Environment & Sustainability, and the Director of the Center for Diverse Leadership in Science, University of California, Los Angeles Center for Policy Research

DUANE E. WALISER, Chief Scientist of the Earth and Technology Directorate, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

ELKE U. WEBER, Gerhard R. Andlinger Professor for Energy and the Environment and Professor of Psychology & Public Affairs, Princeton University

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director

APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer

STEVEN STICHTER, Senior Program Officer

ALEX REICH, Program Officer

RACHEL SILVERN, Program Officer

PATRICIA RAZAFINDRAMBININA, Associate Program Officer

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Research Associate

AMY MITSUMORI, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

KYLE ALDRIDGE, Program Assistant

LINDSAY MOLLER, Program Assistant

SABAH RANA, Program Assistant

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY

KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health, University of Washington

BILAL M. AYYUB, Professor and Director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland

LISA DILLING, Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder

KENNETH GILLINGHAM, Professor of Economics, Yale University

LORI HUNTER, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Population Research Program, University of Colorado Boulder

KATHARINE L. JACOBS, Professor in the Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science and the Director of the Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona

STEVEN H. LINDER, Professor and Vice Chair of the Department of Management, Policy and Community, University of Texas School of Public Health

GARY E. MACHLIS, Professor of Environmental Sustainability, Clemson University

MICHEAL A. MÉNDEZ, Assistant Professor of Environmental Policy and Planning, University of California, Irvine

ASEEM PRAKASH, Walker Family Professor for the College of Arts and Sciences and a Professor of Political Science, University of Washington

BENJAMIN K. SOVACOOL, Professor of Earth and Environment and Director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Boston University

MICHAEL VANDENBERGH, Professor of Law, Vanderbilt University School of Law

CATHY L. WHITLOCK, Professor of Earth Sciences and Fellow of the Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

THOMAS THORNTON, Director

GRACE BETTS, Research Associate

SHARON BRITT, Program Coordinator

CHANDRA MIDDLETON, Program Officer

SITARA RAHIAB, Senior Program Assistant

JOHN BEN SOILEAU, Program Officer

HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by WILLIAM C. CLARK, Harvard University, and ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Preface

This report is the result of a review by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) of the USGCRP draft Decadal Strategic Plan (DSP) 2022-2031. The DSP 2022-2031 outlines priority areas of global change research at a time when our human and natural systems are increasingly experiencing impacts and when projections indicate the risks are expected to increase with additional change. The DSP recognizes that priority knowledge gaps shifted over the past decade as needs increased for useful and more inclusive data and information to ensure effective decision-making and implementation to increase resilience and sustainability. The report provides recommendations to strengthen the Plan and, in some cases, to expand strategic objectives.

The draft DSP embraces a systems-based perspective and a collaborative, inclusive approach based on four pillars (i.e., Advancing Science, Informing Decisions, Engaging the Nation, and Collaborating Internationally). The Committee recommends ways the language and tone of the draft DSP can be improved for clarity and to communicate a sense of urgency about the critical need for a comprehensive and robust U.S. Global Change Research Program to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change” (GCRA, 1990). This approach increases emphasis on the social sciences, community engagement (particularly of marginalized populations), and promotion of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the production of science. The Committee provides guidance and recommendations for even deeper engagement with and connections between the public, decision-makers, and scientific communities. In this report, in both cross-cutting themes and discussions of individual DSP pillars, the Committee identifies content and strategy gaps—primarily missed opportunities for deeper integration across the plan.

The Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program is the body within the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine responsible for advising USGCRP. We are indebted to the staff at the National Academies who provided guidance, input, and support throughout the writing of the report, particularly Steven Stichter, whose dedication and scientific understanding were critical throughout, and to Amanda Purcell, Dr. Amanda Staudt, and Dr. Thomas Thornton, whose deep technical knowledge and insights into the National Academies and USGCRP processes helped ensure an appropriately targeted report.

Jerry M. Melillo, Chair
Kristie L. Ebi, Vice Chair
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Contents

Summary

1 Introduction and Background

Statement of Task for the DSP Review

Blueprint of This Review

2 Cross-Cutting Themes and Issues to Strengthen the Draft Decadal Strategic Plan for 2022-2031

Terminology

Incorporate a Stronger Sense of Urgency

Strengthen Interconnections and Integration across the Plan

Strengthen Coordination across Agencies

Specify Key Research Outputs Where Additional Understanding over 2022-2031 Could Advance Resilience and Sustainability

Need for Strategic Flexibility over the Planning Period

3 The Four Pillars

Pillars of the Draft Decadal Strategic Plan

“Advancing Science” Pillar

“Engaging the Nation” Pillar

“Informing Decisions” Pillar

“Collaborating Internationally” Pillar

References

Appendixes

A Statement of Task for the Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program

B USGCRP Transmission Memo

C Committee Member Biographical Sketches

D Line-by-Line Comments