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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Image

Review of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program’s Draft
Decadal Strategic Plan,
2022-2031

________

Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Board on Environmental Change and Society

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

Consensus Study Report

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26608.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

JERRY M. MELILLO (Chair), Distinguished Scientist and Director Emeritus, Marine Biological Laboratory

KRISTIE L. EBI (Vice Chair), Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences and of Global Health, University of Washington

SUSAN ANENBERG, Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health, George Washington University

SARA R. CURRAN, Professor of International Studies, Sociology, and Director of the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington

PAUL FLEMING, Global Water Program Manager, Microsoft Corporation

SARAH K. FORTNER, Science Education Associate, Carleton College

MIRIAM GAY-ANTAKI, Assistant Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico

SHERRI W. GOODMAN, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, CNA Analysis & Solutions, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

ALISON M. GRANTHAM, Founder and Principal, Grow Well Consulting, LLC

KIMBERLY L. JONES, Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Education, Professor of Architecture, and Chair of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Howard University

VALERIE KARPLUS, Associate Professor, Carnegie Mellon University

CARLOS E. MARTÍN, Rubenstein Fellow, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program, The Brookings Institution

LINDA O. MEARNS, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research

PHILIP W. MOTE, Professor, Vice Provost, and Dean of the Graduate School, Oregon State University

DEB A. NIEMEIER, Clark Distinguished Chair and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland

OSVALDO E. SALA, Julie A Wrigley Professor of Life Sciences and Sustainability, Reagents’ and Foundation Professor, Arizona State University

PAUL A. SANDIFER, Director, Center for Coastal Environmental and Human Health, College of Charleston

HENRY G. SCHWARTZ, JR., Independent Consultant

RACHAEL SHWOM, Associate Professor, Acting Director of Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University

JOEL B. SMITH, Independent Consultant

ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Professor Emeritus of High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University

JULIE A. VANO, Research Director, Aspen Global Change Institute

ALYSSA K. WHITCRAFT, Associate Research Professor, University of Maryland

GABRIELLE WONG-PARODI, Assistant Professor, Center Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

BRIAN L. ZUCKERMAN, Research Staff Member, Science and Technology Policy Institute

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

STEVEN STICHTER, Study Director

THOMAS THORNTON, Board Director of Board on Environmental Change and Society

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer

LINDSAY MOLLER, Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

MARY GLACKIN (Chair), Senior Vice President, The Weather Company, an IBM Business

CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Director of Science, Heising-Simons Foundation

CECILIA BITZ, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington

JOHN C. CHIANG, Faculty Scientist, University of California

BRAD R. COLMAN, Director of Weather Strategy, The Climate Corporation

BART E. CROES, Retired Research Division Chief, California Air Resources Board

ROBERT B. DUNBAR, William M. Keck Professor of Earth Science, Stanford University

EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU, Distinguished Professor and Henry Samueli Endowed Chair at the Samueli School of Engineering, University of California

PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Director of Science and Policy and Chief Climate Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists

VANDA GRUBIŠIC, Associate Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research

ROBERT KOPP, Director of the Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences and Professor, Rutgers University

RUBY LEUNG, Battelle Fellow and Affiliate Scientist, Pacific North West National Laboratory and National Center for Atmospheric Research

ZHANQING LI, Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

JONATHAN MARTIN, Professor and Chair of the Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison

AMY MCGOVERN, Lloyd G. and Joyce Austin Presidential professor in the School of Computer Sciences, Oklahoma State University

JONATHAN A. PATZ, Director of the Global Health Institute and Professor and John P. Holton Chair of Health and the Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison

J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and Director, University of Georgia

ALLISON STEINER, Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan

DAVID W. TITLEY, Professor of Practice in Meteorology, Director of the Center for Solutions to Weather & Climate Risk, Pennsylvania State University

ARADHNA TRIPATI, Assistant Professor of the Institute of the Environment & Sustainability, and the Director of the Center for Diverse Leadership in Science, University of California, Los Angeles Center for Policy Research

DUANE E. WALISER, Chief Scientist of the Earth and Technology Directorate, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

ELKE U. WEBER, Gerhard R. Andlinger Professor for Energy and the Environment and Professor of Psychology & Public Affairs, Princeton University

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director

APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer

STEVEN STICHTER, Senior Program Officer

ALEX REICH, Program Officer

RACHEL SILVERN, Program Officer

PATRICIA RAZAFINDRAMBININA, Associate Program Officer

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Research Associate

AMY MITSUMORI, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

KYLE ALDRIDGE, Program Assistant

LINDSAY MOLLER, Program Assistant

SABAH RANA, Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY

KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health, University of Washington

BILAL M. AYYUB, Professor and Director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland

LISA DILLING, Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder

KENNETH GILLINGHAM, Professor of Economics, Yale University

LORI HUNTER, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Population Research Program, University of Colorado Boulder

KATHARINE L. JACOBS, Professor in the Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science and the Director of the Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona

STEVEN H. LINDER, Professor and Vice Chair of the Department of Management, Policy and Community, University of Texas School of Public Health

GARY E. MACHLIS, Professor of Environmental Sustainability, Clemson University

MICHEAL A. MÉNDEZ, Assistant Professor of Environmental Policy and Planning, University of California, Irvine

ASEEM PRAKASH, Walker Family Professor for the College of Arts and Sciences and a Professor of Political Science, University of Washington

BENJAMIN K. SOVACOOL, Professor of Earth and Environment and Director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Boston University

MICHAEL VANDENBERGH, Professor of Law, Vanderbilt University School of Law

CATHY L. WHITLOCK, Professor of Earth Sciences and Fellow of the Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

THOMAS THORNTON, Director

GRACE BETTS, Research Associate

SHARON BRITT, Program Coordinator

CHANDRA MIDDLETON, Program Officer

SITARA RAHIAB, Senior Program Assistant

JOHN BEN SOILEAU, Program Officer

HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University

SARAH HOBBIE, University of Minnesota

ELENA IRWIN, The Ohio State University

CHRISTINE KIRCHHOFF, University of Connecticut

KAI LEE, Owl of Minerva, LLC

BRIAN O’NEILL, Joint Global Change Research Institute

JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Michigan

NANCY RABALAIS, Louisiana State University

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by WILLIAM C. CLARK, Harvard University, and ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×

Preface

This report is the result of a review by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) of the USGCRP draft Decadal Strategic Plan (DSP) 2022-2031. The DSP 2022-2031 outlines priority areas of global change research at a time when our human and natural systems are increasingly experiencing impacts and when projections indicate the risks are expected to increase with additional change. The DSP recognizes that priority knowledge gaps shifted over the past decade as needs increased for useful and more inclusive data and information to ensure effective decision-making and implementation to increase resilience and sustainability. The report provides recommendations to strengthen the Plan and, in some cases, to expand strategic objectives.

The draft DSP embraces a systems-based perspective and a collaborative, inclusive approach based on four pillars (i.e., Advancing Science, Informing Decisions, Engaging the Nation, and Collaborating Internationally). The Committee recommends ways the language and tone of the draft DSP can be improved for clarity and to communicate a sense of urgency about the critical need for a comprehensive and robust U.S. Global Change Research Program to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change” (GCRA, 1990). This approach increases emphasis on the social sciences, community engagement (particularly of marginalized populations), and promotion of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the production of science. The Committee provides guidance and recommendations for even deeper engagement with and connections between the public, decision-makers, and scientific communities. In this report, in both cross-cutting themes and discussions of individual DSP pillars, the Committee identifies content and strategy gaps—primarily missed opportunities for deeper integration across the plan.

The Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program is the body within the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine responsible for advising USGCRP. We are indebted to the staff at the National Academies who provided guidance, input, and support throughout the writing of the report, particularly Steven Stichter, whose dedication and scientific understanding were critical throughout, and to Amanda Purcell, Dr. Amanda Staudt, and Dr. Thomas Thornton, whose deep technical knowledge and insights into the National Academies and USGCRP processes helped ensure an appropriately targeted report.

Jerry M. Melillo, Chair
Kristie L. Ebi, Vice Chair
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26608.
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More intense heat waves, extended wildfire seasons and other escalating impacts of climate change have made it more important than ever to fill knowledge gaps that improve society's understanding, assessment, and response to global change. The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) - a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to help the United States and the world fill those knowledge gaps - laid out proposed mechanisms and priorities for global change research over the next decade in its draft Decadal Strategic Plan 2022-2031. The draft plan recognizes that priority knowledge gaps have shifted over the past decade as demand has grown for more useful and more inclusive data to inform decision-making, and as the focus on resilience and sustainability has increased.

As part of its work in advising the USGCRP since 2011, the National Academies reviewed USGCRP's draft plan to determine how it might be enhanced. Advances in the draft plan include an increased emphasis on social sciences, community engagement with marginalized groups, and promotion of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the production of science. Strengthening the interconnections between the plan's core pillars and expanding opportunities for coordination among federal agencies tasked with responding to global climate change would improve the plan. The draft plan could more strongly convey a sense of urgency throughout the plan and would benefit from additional examples of key research outputs that could advance policy and decision making on global change challenges.

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