Review of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program’s Draft
Decadal Strategic Plan,
2022-2031
________
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Consensus Study Report
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68994-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-68994-5
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26608
This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26608.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.
Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.
Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release.
For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE TO ADVISE THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
JERRY M. MELILLO (Chair), Distinguished Scientist and Director Emeritus, Marine Biological Laboratory
KRISTIE L. EBI (Vice Chair), Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences and of Global Health, University of Washington
SUSAN ANENBERG, Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health, George Washington University
SARA R. CURRAN, Professor of International Studies, Sociology, and Director of the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington
PAUL FLEMING, Global Water Program Manager, Microsoft Corporation
SARAH K. FORTNER, Science Education Associate, Carleton College
MIRIAM GAY-ANTAKI, Assistant Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico
SHERRI W. GOODMAN, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, CNA Analysis & Solutions, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
ALISON M. GRANTHAM, Founder and Principal, Grow Well Consulting, LLC
KIMBERLY L. JONES, Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Education, Professor of Architecture, and Chair of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Howard University
VALERIE KARPLUS, Associate Professor, Carnegie Mellon University
CARLOS E. MARTÍN, Rubenstein Fellow, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program, The Brookings Institution
LINDA O. MEARNS, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research
PHILIP W. MOTE, Professor, Vice Provost, and Dean of the Graduate School, Oregon State University
DEB A. NIEMEIER, Clark Distinguished Chair and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland
OSVALDO E. SALA, Julie A Wrigley Professor of Life Sciences and Sustainability, Reagents’ and Foundation Professor, Arizona State University
PAUL A. SANDIFER, Director, Center for Coastal Environmental and Human Health, College of Charleston
HENRY G. SCHWARTZ, JR., Independent Consultant
RACHAEL SHWOM, Associate Professor, Acting Director of Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University
JOEL B. SMITH, Independent Consultant
ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Professor Emeritus of High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University
JULIE A. VANO, Research Director, Aspen Global Change Institute
ALYSSA K. WHITCRAFT, Associate Research Professor, University of Maryland
GABRIELLE WONG-PARODI, Assistant Professor, Center Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
BRIAN L. ZUCKERMAN, Research Staff Member, Science and Technology Policy Institute
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
STEVEN STICHTER, Study Director
THOMAS THORNTON, Board Director of Board on Environmental Change and Society
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer
LINDSAY MOLLER, Program Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
MARY GLACKIN (Chair), Senior Vice President, The Weather Company, an IBM Business
CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Director of Science, Heising-Simons Foundation
CECILIA BITZ, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington
JOHN C. CHIANG, Faculty Scientist, University of California
BRAD R. COLMAN, Director of Weather Strategy, The Climate Corporation
BART E. CROES, Retired Research Division Chief, California Air Resources Board
ROBERT B. DUNBAR, William M. Keck Professor of Earth Science, Stanford University
EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU, Distinguished Professor and Henry Samueli Endowed Chair at the Samueli School of Engineering, University of California
PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Director of Science and Policy and Chief Climate Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists
VANDA GRUBIŠIC, Associate Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research
ROBERT KOPP, Director of the Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences and Professor, Rutgers University
RUBY LEUNG, Battelle Fellow and Affiliate Scientist, Pacific North West National Laboratory and National Center for Atmospheric Research
ZHANQING LI, Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland
JONATHAN MARTIN, Professor and Chair of the Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison
AMY MCGOVERN, Lloyd G. and Joyce Austin Presidential professor in the School of Computer Sciences, Oklahoma State University
JONATHAN A. PATZ, Director of the Global Health Institute and Professor and John P. Holton Chair of Health and the Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison
J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and Director, University of Georgia
ALLISON STEINER, Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan
DAVID W. TITLEY, Professor of Practice in Meteorology, Director of the Center for Solutions to Weather & Climate Risk, Pennsylvania State University
ARADHNA TRIPATI, Assistant Professor of the Institute of the Environment & Sustainability, and the Director of the Center for Diverse Leadership in Science, University of California, Los Angeles Center for Policy Research
DUANE E. WALISER, Chief Scientist of the Earth and Technology Directorate, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
ELKE U. WEBER, Gerhard R. Andlinger Professor for Energy and the Environment and Professor of Psychology & Public Affairs, Princeton University
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Board Director
APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer
STEVEN STICHTER, Senior Program Officer
ALEX REICH, Program Officer
RACHEL SILVERN, Program Officer
PATRICIA RAZAFINDRAMBININA, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Research Associate
AMY MITSUMORI, Research Associate
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
KYLE ALDRIDGE, Program Assistant
LINDSAY MOLLER, Program Assistant
SABAH RANA, Program Assistant
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health, University of Washington
BILAL M. AYYUB, Professor and Director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland
LISA DILLING, Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder
KENNETH GILLINGHAM, Professor of Economics, Yale University
LORI HUNTER, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Population Research Program, University of Colorado Boulder
KATHARINE L. JACOBS, Professor in the Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science and the Director of the Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona
STEVEN H. LINDER, Professor and Vice Chair of the Department of Management, Policy and Community, University of Texas School of Public Health
GARY E. MACHLIS, Professor of Environmental Sustainability, Clemson University
MICHEAL A. MÉNDEZ, Assistant Professor of Environmental Policy and Planning, University of California, Irvine
ASEEM PRAKASH, Walker Family Professor for the College of Arts and Sciences and a Professor of Political Science, University of Washington
BENJAMIN K. SOVACOOL, Professor of Earth and Environment and Director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Boston University
MICHAEL VANDENBERGH, Professor of Law, Vanderbilt University School of Law
CATHY L. WHITLOCK, Professor of Earth Sciences and Fellow of the Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
THOMAS THORNTON, Director
GRACE BETTS, Research Associate
SHARON BRITT, Program Coordinator
CHANDRA MIDDLETON, Program Officer
SITARA RAHIAB, Senior Program Assistant
JOHN BEN SOILEAU, Program Officer
HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer
This page intentionally left blank.
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University
SARAH HOBBIE, University of Minnesota
ELENA IRWIN, The Ohio State University
CHRISTINE KIRCHHOFF, University of Connecticut
KAI LEE, Owl of Minerva, LLC
BRIAN O’NEILL, Joint Global Change Research Institute
JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Michigan
NANCY RABALAIS, Louisiana State University
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by WILLIAM C. CLARK, Harvard University, and ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
This page intentionally left blank.
Preface
This report is the result of a review by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) of the USGCRP draft Decadal Strategic Plan (DSP) 2022-2031. The DSP 2022-2031 outlines priority areas of global change research at a time when our human and natural systems are increasingly experiencing impacts and when projections indicate the risks are expected to increase with additional change. The DSP recognizes that priority knowledge gaps shifted over the past decade as needs increased for useful and more inclusive data and information to ensure effective decision-making and implementation to increase resilience and sustainability. The report provides recommendations to strengthen the Plan and, in some cases, to expand strategic objectives.
The draft DSP embraces a systems-based perspective and a collaborative, inclusive approach based on four pillars (i.e., Advancing Science, Informing Decisions, Engaging the Nation, and Collaborating Internationally). The Committee recommends ways the language and tone of the draft DSP can be improved for clarity and to communicate a sense of urgency about the critical need for a comprehensive and robust U.S. Global Change Research Program to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change” (GCRA, 1990). This approach increases emphasis on the social sciences, community engagement (particularly of marginalized populations), and promotion of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the production of science. The Committee provides guidance and recommendations for even deeper engagement with and connections between the public, decision-makers, and scientific communities. In this report, in both cross-cutting themes and discussions of individual DSP pillars, the Committee identifies content and strategy gaps—primarily missed opportunities for deeper integration across the plan.
The Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program is the body within the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine responsible for advising USGCRP. We are indebted to the staff at the National Academies who provided guidance, input, and support throughout the writing of the report, particularly Steven Stichter, whose dedication and scientific understanding were critical throughout, and to Amanda Purcell, Dr. Amanda Staudt, and Dr. Thomas Thornton, whose deep technical knowledge and insights into the National Academies and USGCRP processes helped ensure an appropriately targeted report.
Jerry M. Melillo, Chair
Kristie L. Ebi, Vice Chair
Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
This page intentionally left blank.
Contents
Statement of Task for the DSP Review
2 Cross-Cutting Themes and Issues to Strengthen the Draft Decadal Strategic Plan for 2022-2031
Incorporate a Stronger Sense of Urgency
Strengthen Interconnections and Integration across the Plan
Strengthen Coordination across Agencies
Need for Strategic Flexibility over the Planning Period
Pillars of the Draft Decadal Strategic Plan
“Collaborating Internationally” Pillar
A Statement of Task for the Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program
This page intentionally left blank.