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Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism (2023)

Chapter: Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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E

Committee Member Biographies

WILLIAM C. OSTENDORFF (U.S. Navy—Retired), Co-Chair, joined the Naval Academy’s Political Science Department as the Class of 1960 distinguished visiting professor in national security in August 2016. Prior to joining the Naval Academy faculty, Captain Ostendorff served as the principal deputy administrator at the National Nuclear Security Administration in the Bush administration (2007–2009) and as a commissioner at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the Obama administration (2010–2016). From 2003 to 2007, he was a member of the staff of the House Armed Services Committee. Captain Ostendorff was an officer in the U.S. Navy from 1976 until he retired in 2002. Entering the Rickover Nuclear Navy, he served on six submarines. During his naval career, he commanded a nuclear attack submarine and a nuclear attack submarine squadron and served as the director of the Division of Mathematics and Science at the U.S. Naval Academy. His military decorations include four awards of the Legion of Merit and numerous unit and campaign awards. Captain Ostendorff earned a bachelor’s degree in systems engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy, a law degree from the University of Texas, and a master’s degree in international and comparative law from Georgetown University.

M. ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL, Co-Chair, is the Burt and Deedee McMurtry Professor of Engineering at Stanford University and the founding chair of the Stanford Department of Management Science and Engineering. Her specialty is engineering risk analysis and risk management with applications to complex systems: space, medical, offshore oil platforms, cyber security, national security, etc. Her

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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research has focused first on the optimization of warning systems, including the command-and-control system of nuclear forces and the explicit inclusion of human and organizational factors in the analysis of systems’ failure risks. Dr. Paté-Cornell recently received the Ramo medal from the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers for “exceptional achievements in Systems Engineering and Systems Science.” Her latest work has focused on the use of game analysis with applications to counterterrorism and cyber security, including artificial intelligence applications to U.S. complex systems that could be targeted by competitors or adversaries. Dr. Paté-Cornell is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and the NASA Advisory Council and is a distinguished visiting scientist of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. She was the president of the Society for Risk Analysis (which awarded her the 2010 Ramsey medal) and a member of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, as well as several other boards, including those of Aerospace, Inc., and In-Q-Tel. She holds a BS in mathematics and physics (Marseille, France), an engineering degree in applied math/computer science from the Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble, France, and an MS in operations research and a PhD in engineering-economic systems from Stanford University.

DAVID L. BANKS is a professor of the practice of statistics at Duke University. Prior to this, he worked for the National Institute of Standards and Technology, served as the chief statistician of the Department of Transportation, and worked for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Dr. Banks was the coordinating editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and cofounded the journal Statistics and Public Policy; he also cofounded the American Statistical Association’s (ASA’s) Section on National Defense and Homeland Security. He served as the president of the Classification Society and has twice served on the board of directors of the ASA. He is currently the president of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics, and a fellow of the ASA and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. Dr. Banks recently won the ASA’s Founders Award. His research areas include models for dynamic networks, dynamic text networks, adversarial risk analysis (i.e., Bayesian behavioral game theory), human rights statistics, agent-based models, forensics, and certain topics in high-dimensional data analysis. Dr. Banks holds a BA in anthropology from the University of Virginia and master’s degrees in mathematics and statistics and a PhD in statistics from the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.

VICKI M. BIER is a professor emerita in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where she directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex Systems

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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(1995–2021). She was recently appointed to the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Dr. Bier has over 40 years of experience in risk analysis for the nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical, and aerospace industries, as well as homeland security and critical-infrastructure protection. Her recent research has focused on applications of risk analysis and related methods to problems of security, critical infrastructure protection, and emergency management. Dr. Bier received the Women’s Achievement Award from the American Nuclear Society in 1993 and was elected a fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis in 1996, from which she received the Distinguished Achievement Award in 2007. She is also the past president of the Decision Analysis Society and the editor-in-chief of the society’s flagship journal, Decision Analysis. Dr. Bier has participated in panels, committees, and subcommittees of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, including those dealing with radioactive waste management, a committee to review the Department of Homeland Security’s approach to risk analysis, and the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications (2014–2016). She received a BS in mathematical sciences from Stanford University in 1976 and a PhD in operations research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1983.

MATTHEW G. BUNN is the James R. Schlesinger Professor of the Practice of Energy, National Security, and Foreign Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. His research interests include nuclear theft and terrorism, nuclear proliferation and measures to control it, the future of nuclear energy and its fuel cycle, and innovation in energy technologies. Before coming to Harvard, Dr. Bunn served as an adviser to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, as a study director at the National Academies, and as an editor of Arms Control Today. He is the author or coauthor of over 25 books or major technical reports (most recently Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty), and over 150 articles in publications ranging from Science to The Washington Post. Dr. Bunn holds a PhD in technology, management, and policy from MIT.

NANCY J. COOKE is a professor of human systems engineering and the director of the Center for Human and Artificial Intelligence and Robot Teaming at Arizona State University. She is trained as a cognitive psychologist and has researched the assessment of teamwork for nearly 25 years. Dr. Cooke chaired the National Academies’ Board on Human Systems Integration from 2012 to 2016 and was a member of the consensus study on safety and security of commercial spent nuclear fuel storage in 2006. She received her BA in psychology from George Mason University in 1981 and her MA and PhD in cognitive psychology from New Mexico State University in 1983 and 1987, respectively.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
×

RAYMOND JEANLOZ is a professor of Earth and planetary science and astronomy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the Annenberg distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. In addition to his scientific research on the evolution of planetary interiors and properties of materials at high pressures, he works at the interface between science and policy in areas related to national and international security, resources and the environment, and education. Dr. Jeanloz is a member of JASON, a group that provides technical advice to the U.S. government, and chairs the National Academies’ Committee on International Security and Arms Control; he has served on the Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board and is the past chair of the National Academies’ Board on Earth Sciences and Resources. He is an elected fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the American Geophysical Union, the American Physical Society, and the Mineralogical Society of America. Dr. Jeanloz holds a PhD from the California Institute of Technology.

MADHAV V. MARATHE is a distinguished professor in biocomplexity, the division director of the Networks, Simulation Science and Advanced Computing Division at the Biocomplexity Institute and Initiative, and a professor in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Virginia (UVA). His research interests are in network science, computational epidemiology, artificial intelligence, foundations of computing, socially coupled system science, and high-performance computing. Over the past 25 years, he and his colleagues have developed scalable computational methods to study the social, economic, and health impacts of large-scale natural and human-initiated disasters. Those tools and methods have been used in more than 50 case studies to inform and assess various policy questions pertaining to planning and response in the event of such disasters. Before joining UVA, Dr. Marathe held positions at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and the Los Alamos National Laboratory and was the inaugural George Michael fellow at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He is a fellow of the AAAS, the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, the Association for Computing Machinery, and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. He holds a PhD in computer science from the University at Albany-SUNY.

RICHARD W. MIES is the chief executive officer of The Mies Group, Ltd., a consulting corporation that provides strategic planning and risk assessment advice on international security, energy, and defense issues. A distinguished graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, Admiral Mies is one of a few flag officers to complete qualification as both a nuclear submariner and naval aviation observer. In his 35-year military career, he has held both U.S. and Allied submarine commands at senior military levels and commanded the U.S. Strategic Command for 4 years prior to

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
×

retirement in 2002. Following retirement from the Navy, Admiral Mies served as the senior vice president and the deputy group president of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and as the president and the chief executive officer of Hicks and Associates, Inc. (2002–2007), a wholly owned subsidiary of SAIC. He served as the chair of the Department of Defense’s Threat Reduction Advisory Committee (2004–2010) and as a member and then the vice chair of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board. Admiral Mies presently serves as the chair of the Strategic Advisory Group for the U.S. Strategic Command and the co-chair of the Nuclear Energy and National Security Coalition of the Atlantic Council and is a member of the National Academies’ Committee on International Security and Arms Control, as well as the Board of Governors of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He also serves on several other research and development–related advisory boards. Admiral Mies completed postgraduate education at Oxford University, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and Harvard University, and holds a master’s degree in government administration and international relations.

GREGORY S. PARNELL is a professor of practice in industrial engineering in the Department of Industrial Engineering and the director of the MS in operations management (the university’s largest graduate program) and the MS in engineering management programs at the University of Arkansas. His research focuses on decision analysis, risk analysis, systems engineering, and resource allocation for defense; intelligence; homeland security; and environmental management. He is a professor emeritus at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. Previously, Dr. Parnell served as a professor of systems engineering at West Point, a distinguished visiting professor at the U.S. Air Force Academy, an associate professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, and a department head at the Air Force Institute of Technology. He is the former president of the Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) and the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). He has also served as the editor of Military Operations Research. Dr. Parnell has participated in four committees with the National Academies. He chaired the committees on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis (2008) and the Review of the Inspection Programs for Offshore Oil and Gas Operations (2021). He was a member of the Committee on Improving Metrics for the Department of Defense Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (2011) and the Committee on Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (2013). He is a fellow of the International Committee for Systems Engineering, INFORMS, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals. He received his BS in aerospace engineering from the University of Buffalo, his ME in industrial and systems engineering from the University of Florida, his MS in systems management from the University of Southern California, and his PhD in

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
×

engineering-economic systems from Stanford University. Dr. Parnell is a retired Air Force colonel and a graduate of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces.

SCOTT D. SAGAN is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and a senior fellow and the codirector at the Center for International Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University. He also serves as the chair of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences’ Committee on International Security Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Dr. Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as the special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is a scholar of nuclear issues and is the author, among other works, of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (1993); and, with coauthor Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (2012). In 2017, Dr. Sagan received the International Studies Association’s Susan Strange Award, which recognizes the scholar whose “singular intellect, assertiveness, and insight most challenge conventional wisdom and intellectual and organizational complacency” in the international studies community. He received the National Academy of Sciences’ William and Katherine Estes Award in 2015 for his work addressing the risks of nuclear weapons use and the causes of nuclear proliferation. Dr. Sagan received his BA from Oberlin College and his PhD in political science from Harvard University.

JAMES SCOURAS is a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, where he directs a research program focused on nuclear strategy and global catastrophic risks associated with scientific experimentation. Previously, he was the chief scientist of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Advanced Systems and Concepts Office. Dr. Scouras also served as the program director for risk analysis at the Homeland Security Institute, held research positions at the Institute for Defense Analyses and the RAND Corporation, and lectured on nuclear policy in the University of Maryland’s General Honors Program. His recent publications include “Nuclear War as a Global Catastrophic Risk” (Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2019) and his edited volume, On Assessing the Risk of Nuclear War, published in 2021. Dr. Scouras earned his PhD in 1980 from the University of Maryland and his BS in 1969 from the University of Rochester, both in physics.

PAUL SLOVIC is the president of the research institute Decision Research, which he cofounded with Sarah Lichtenstein and Baruch Fischhoff in 1976. He has been a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon since 1986. Dr. Slovic and his colleagues worldwide have developed methods to describe risk perceptions and measure their impacts on individuals, industry, and society. His recent research

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
×

examines “psychic numbing” and the failure to respond to global threats from genocide and nuclear war. Dr. Slovic is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis, from which he received a Distinguished Contribution Award in 1991. In 1993, he received the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the American Psychological Association, and in 1995, he received the Outstanding Contribution to Science Award from the Oregon Academy of Science. Dr. Slovic has received honorary doctorates from the Stockholm School of Economics (1996) and the University of East Anglia (2005). He was elected to the American Academy of Arts & Sciences in 2015 and the National Academy of Sciences in 2016. He received the 2022 Bower Award and Prize, given by The Franklin Institute for foundational and theoretical contributions to the study of decision making. Dr. Slovic has served on numerous committees of the National Academies, including those that produced the reports Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (1983) and Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (1996). He received his BA from Stanford University and his MA and PhD in psychology from the University of Michigan.

ALYSON G. WILSON is the associate vice chancellor for national security and special research initiatives at North Carolina State University (NC State). She is also a professor in the Department of Statistics and the principal investigator for the Laboratory for Analytic Sciences. Dr. Wilson is a fellow of the ASA and the AAAS. Her research interests include statistical reliability, Bayesian methods, and the application of statistics to problems in defense and national security. Prior to joining NC State, Dr. Wilson was a research staff member at the IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute (2011–2013); an associate professor in the Department of Statistics at Iowa State University (2008–2011); a technical staff member in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (1999–2008); and a senior statistician and operations research analyst with Cowboy Programming Resources (1995–1999). In addition to numerous other publications, she has coauthored a book, Bayesian Reliability, and coedited two other books, Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism: Game Theory, Modeling, Syndromic Surveillance, and Biometric Authentication and Modern Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Reliability. Dr. Wilson received her PhD in statistics from Duke University.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Committee Member Biographies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26609.
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 Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism
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The assessment of risk is complex and often controversial. It is derived from the existence of a hazard, and it is characterized by the uncertainty of possible undesirable events and their outcomes. Few outcomes are as undesirable as nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. Over the decades, much has been written about particular situations, policies, and weapons that might affect the risks of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. The nature of the concerns and the risk analysis methods used to evaluate them have evolved considerably over time.

At the request of the Department of Defense, Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism discusses risks, explores the risk assessment literature, highlights the strengths and weaknesses of risk assessment approaches, and discusses some publicly available assumptions that underpin U.S. security strategies, all in the context of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism.

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