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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. The Impacts of Vehicle Automation on the Public Transportation Workforce. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26613.
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2022 T R A N S I T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 232 Research sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration in cooperation with the Transit Development Corporation Subject Areas Public Transportation • Passenger Transportation • Vehicles and Equipment The Impacts of Vehicle Automation on the Public Transportation Workforce Michael J. Walk Jinuk Hwang Jacqueline Kuzio Ipek N. Sener Johanna Zmud Zachary Elgart Shuman Tan Texas A&M Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System College Station, TX Mary Davis McGlothin Davis, Inc. Denver, CO

TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 232 Project J-11/Task 34 ISSN 2572-3782 ISBN 978-0-309-68685-3 © 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, NHTSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. Cover images used under license from Shutterstock.com. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transporta- tion Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or specifi- cations. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which pro- vide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Transit Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The nation’s growth and the need to meet mobility, environmental, and energy objectives place demands on public transit systems. Cur- rent systems, some of which are old and in need of upgrading, must expand service area, increase service frequency, and improve efficiency to serve these demands. Research is necessary to solve operating prob- lems, adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and introduce innovations into the transit industry. The Transit Coopera- tive Research Program (TCRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the transit industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for TCRP was originally identified in TRB Special Report 213—Research for Public Transit: New Directions, published in 1987 and based on a study sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration—now the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). A report by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), Transportation 2000, also recognized the need for local, problem- solving research. TCRP, modeled after the successful National Coop- erative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), undertakes research and other technical activities in response to the needs of transit ser- vice providers. The scope of TCRP includes various transit research fields including planning, service configuration, equipment, facilities, operations, human resources, maintenance, policy, and administrative practices. TCRP was established under FTA sponsorship in July 1992. Pro- posed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, TCRP was authorized as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). On May 13, 1992, a memorandum agreement outlining TCRP operating procedures was executed by the three cooperating organi- zations: FTA; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, acting through the Transportation Research Board (TRB); and the Transit Development Corporation, Inc. (TDC), a nonprofit educational and research organization established by APTA. TDC is responsible for forming the independent governing board, designated as the TCRP Oversight and Project Selection (TOPS) Commission. Research problem statements for TCRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the TOPS Commission to formulate the research program by identi- fying the highest priority projects. As part of the evaluation, the TOPS Commission defines funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. The panels prepare project statements (requests for propos- als), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooperative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, TCRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Because research cannot have the desired effect if products fail to reach the intended audience, special emphasis is placed on disseminat- ing TCRP results to the intended users of the research: transit agen- cies, service providers, and suppliers. TRB provides a series of research reports, syntheses of transit practice, and other supporting material developed by TCRP research. APTA will arrange for workshops, train- ing aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are imple- mented by urban and rural transit industry practitioners. TCRP provides a forum where transit agencies can cooperatively address common operational problems. TCRP results support and complement other ongoing transit research and training programs. Published research reports of the TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under the Transit Cooperative Research Program Project J-11/ Task 34 by the Texas A&M Transportation Institute (TTI), a member of the Texas A&M University System. The authors thank the many individuals who helped contribute to this report, including the transit managers and professionals who contributed by attending the project’s workshop or webinars, or by completing the staffing count survey. The authors also thank those front-line employees who spent their time completing the front-line employee survey. In addition to the researchers listed on the title page, there were more staff and researchers deserving gratitude for making this report possible through their contributions, especially Brianne Glover, Steven Polzin, and Dennis Hinebaugh. CRP STAFF FOR TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 232 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Gwen Chisholm Smith, Manager, Transit Cooperative Research Program Mariela Garcia-Colberg, Senior Program Officer Emily Griswold, Program Coordinator Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications TCRP PROJECT J-11/TASK 34 PANEL Field of Special Projects Jerome “Jerry” Lutin, New Jersey Transit (retired), Monmouth Junction, NJ (Chair) Christine Anderson, King County (WA) Metro Transit, Seattle, WA Rashidi J. Barnes, FirstGroup plc, Cincinnati, OH Jason J. Bittner, Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA), Madison, WI Katrinell M. Davis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL Kenneth S. Mall, Educational Data Systems, Inc. (EDSI), Dearborn, MI M.J. Maynard, Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada, Las Vegas, NV Kristen Monaco, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, DC Louis “Lou” Sanders, Ayers Electronic Systems, Stevensville, MD Walt Stringer, Mineta Transportation Institute, Carlsbad, CA Xinge Wang, Transportation Learning Center, Silver Spring, MD Dottie L. Watkins, Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Austin, TX Matt Dickens, APTA Liaison Danyell Diggs, FTA Liaison Edward Watt, ATU Liaison Sean Peirce, OST-R/Volpe Center Liaison

TCRP Research Report 232 provides an analysis of the possible impacts of automation on the public transportation workforce. The report examines five possible transit automation use cases on five transit jobs and estimates the effects of automation on different job tasks. This report will provide public transit agencies with a reference on the possible impacts of automation on their transit workforce and suggested guiding principles and strategies that could help prepare them for these impacts. The report was developed for public transit sys- tems of all sizes and their stakeholders, including policymakers, transit board members, and elected officials, who are seeking better understanding of the possible effects of automation on transit and the transit workforce. The results presented in this report provide the transit industry with discussion points on planning for those potential automation effects on the workforce. Automated vehicle advancement is being pursued intensely by both the technology and automobile industries. Vehicle automation in public transit vehicles can range from simple systems to fully automated systems that replace the human driver. The implementation of these technologies will likely have significant impacts in the industry; however, the possible effects on the workforce are largely unknown. This is due partly to the fledgling state of transit vehicle automation and partly to the significant amount of uncertainty about how and when automated transit services become more prevalent. This research had three key objectives: identify likely automation use cases, analyze each use case’s potential effects on the public transportation workforce, and identify strategies to prepare the workforce for and mitigate negative effects of transit vehicle automation. The research utilized a workforce effect calculator framework, in-person workshops, and a sur- vey of front-line transit employees to understand the possible effects of automation. TCRP Research Report 232: The Impacts of Vehicle Automation on the Transit Workforce presents information and suggests strategies that could help transit systems prepare their workforce for the effects of automation. The report is organized into nine chapters; the initial chapters explain the levels of vehicle automation, the supporting automation technologies, and the challenges and uncertainties of vehicle automation. Subsequent chapters describe the five transit vehicle automation use cases and the potential effects of transit vehicle auto- mation on the transit workforce, including changes in job counts and job duties. The report concludes with suggested guiding principles and strategies to prepare for and mitigate potential workforce effects. Appendices A–D provide information and describe the meth- odology used to estimate the current jobs affected, the directly affected job profiles, and the details used for the job calculator to identify the effects of automation. Appendices E and F describe the research team’s basic concept of operations for both remote and in-person F O R E W O R D By Mariela Garcia-Colberg Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

operations of automated transit vehicles and the foundational assumptions applied to the workforce effect calculator. Supplemental to the report are several attachments that are available for download from the National Academies Press website (www.nap.edu) by searching for TCRP Research Report 232: The Impacts of Vehicle Automation on the Transit Workforce. The attachments include the following: • Attachment 1: Staffing Count Survey, • Attachment 2: The American Public Transportation Association’s (APTA’s) APTAtech Workshop Slides, • Attachment 3: APTAtech Workshop Notes Pages Combined, • Attachment 4: Front-Line Survey Instrument, • Attachment 5: Front-Line Survey Recruitment Flyer, • Attachment 6: Industry Webinar Presentation, • Attachment 7: Industry Poll Data, • Attachment 8: Task Impact Ratios, and • Attachment 9: Workforce Effect Estimates for Directly Affected Jobs.

1 Summary 5 Chapter 1 Introduction 6 1.1 Disclaimers 6 1.2 Key Report Terms 6 1.3 Organization of this Report 6 1.4 Study Methodology 13 Chapter 2 Transit Vehicle Automation Overview 13 2.1 Levels of Vehicle Automation 13 2.2 Baseline Supporting Technologies for Vehicle Automation 15 2.3 Supporting Technologies for Transit Vehicle Automation 15 2.4 Potential Impacts of Automating Transit Services 18 2.5 Challenges Facing Transit Service Automation 18 2.6 Conclusion: Handling Uncertainty 21 Chapter 3 Transit Vehicle Automation Use Cases 23 3.1 Use Case #1: Bus Automation for Maintenance and Yard Operations 25 3.2 Use Case #2: Low-Speed Automated Shuttles 28 3.3 Use Case #3: Automated Bus Rapid Transit 30 3.4 Use Case #4: Automated Mobility on Demand 34 3.5 Use Case #5: Automated Local Bus Service 38 Chapter 4 Job Profiles of Targeted Transit Jobs 38 4.1 Directly Affected Operations Jobs 42 4.2 Indirectly Affected Key Jobs 45 Chapter 5 Industry Engagement 45 5.1 In-Person Workshop 46 5.2 Front-Line Employee Survey 52 5.3 Industry Webinars 55 Chapter 6 Workforce Effect Calculator Methodology 55 6.1 Overview of the Workforce Effect Calculator Framework 57 6.2 Workforce Effect Estimation Process and Inputs 63 6.3 Calculator Outputs 64 6.4 Calculator Assumptions Across Modeled Scenarios 65 Chapter 7 Results: Transit Automation Workforce Effects 66 7.1 Summary of Use Case Workforce Effects 67 7.2 Use Case #1: Bus Automation for Maintenance and Yard Operations 67 7.3 Use Case #2: Low-Speed Automated Shuttles 68 7.4 Use Case #3: Automated BRT C O N T E N T S

69 7.5 Use Case #4: Automated MOD 69 7.6 Use Case #5: Automated Local Bus Service 71 7.7 Discussion of Effects on Other Transit Jobs and Organizational Structures 76 Chapter 8 Workforce Effects: Preparation and Mitigation 76 8.1 Calls for Preparation 78 8.2 Automation-Related Workforce Effect Horizon 79 8.3 Current Practices and Resources for Transit Workforce Development 81 8.4 Suggested Guiding Principles 84 8.5 Vehicle Automation Training and Workforce Development 86 8.6 Data Needs to Track Workforce Effects 88 Chapter 9 Conclusion 88 9.1 Summary of Key Findings 90 9.2 Study Limitations 91 9.3 Recommendations for Future Research 93 References 97 Bibliography A-1 Appendix A Description of Methodology to Estimate FTEs per Directly Affected Operations Job B-1 Appendix B Directly Affected Operations Job Profiles C-1 Appendix C Indirectly Affected Key Job Profiles D-1 Appendix D Impact Tree Details E-1 Appendix E Concept of Operations for In-Person and Remote Operational Models F-1 Appendix F Calculator Assumption Descriptions and Rationale

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Advancements in the automation of transit vehicles will likely have significant impacts; however, the possible effects on the public-transportation workforce is largely unknown. This is due partly to the fledgling state of transit vehicle automation and partly to the significant amount of uncertainty about how and when automated transit services become more prevalent.

The TRB Transit Cooperative Research Program's TCRP Research Report 232: The Impacts of Vehicle Automation on the Public Transportation Workforce provides an analysis of the possible impacts of automation on the public transportation workforce.

Supplemental to the report are:

· Staffing Count Survey

· APTATech Workshop Presentation

· Workshop Notes

· Employee Survey

· Survey Flyer

· Industry Webinar Presentation

· Industry Poll Data

· Task Impact Ratios, and

· Workforce Effect Estimates.

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