Anticipating Rare Events of
Major Significance
__________
Joe Alper and Liza Hamilton, Rapporteurs
Intelligence Community Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical
Sciences
Proceedings of a Workshop
NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
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International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-69306-6
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Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26698
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26698.
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PLANNING COMMITTEE ON ANTICIPATING RARE EVENTS OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE1
CHRISTOPHER L. BARRETT, University of Virginia, Chair
DAVID ALDOUS, NAS,2 University of California, Berkeley
VICKI M. BIER, University of Wisconsin–Madison
DAN FUKUSHIMA, Futurist
JUSTIN C. KASPER, University of Michigan
CATO T. LAURENCIN, NAS/NAE3/NAM,4 University of Connecticut Health Center
ALON ORLITSKY, University of California, San Diego
ROBERT N. SCHOCK, World Federation of Scientists
MICHELE WUCKER, Gray Rhino & Company
Staff
CARYN LESLIE, Director
DIONNA ALI, Associate Program Officer
ANTHONY FAINBERG, Senior Program Officer
LIZA HAMILTON, Senior Program Officer
MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
ALAN SHAW, Director (until March 2022) and Scholar
Consultant
JOE ALPER, Consulting Writer
___________________
1 The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s planning committees are solely responsible for organizing the workshop, identifying topics, and choosing speakers. The responsibility for the published Proceedings of a Workshop rests with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution.
2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
3 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
4 Member, National Academy of Medicine.
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY STUDIES BOARD
MARK M. LOWENTHAL, Intelligence & Security Academy, LLC, Co-Chair
MICHAEL A. MARLETTA, NAS1/NAM,2 University of California, Berkeley, Co-Chair
JOEL F. BRENNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERT T. CARDILLO, The Cardillo Group, LLC
FREDERICK R. CHANG, NAE,3 Southern Methodist University
DEAN B. CHENG, The Heritage Foundation
ROBERT DYNES, NAS, University of California, San Diego
ROBERT A. FEIN, McLean Hospital/Harvard Medical School
HUBAN A. GOWADIA, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
MIRIAM E. JOHN, Independent Consultant
ANITA K. JONES, NAE, University of Virginia
STEVEN E. KOONIN, NAS, New York University
CARMEN L. MIDDLETON, The Walt Disney Company
ARTHUR L. MONEY, NAE, Independent Consultant
WILLIAM C. OSTENDORFF, United States Naval Academy
DAVID A. RELMAN, NAM, Stanford University
ELIZABETH RINDSKOPF PARKER, Retired, State Bar of California
SAMUEL S. VISNER, The MITRE Corporation
DAVID A. WHELAN, NAE, University of California, San Diego
Staff
CARYN LESLIE, Director
DIONNA ALI, Associate Program Officer
BRYAN FROST BUNNELL, Research Associate
ANTHONY FAINBERG, Senior Program Officer
NIA JOHNSON, Program Officer
CHRIS JONES, Senior Finance Business Partner
MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
2 Member, National Academy of Medicine.
3 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
Reviewers
This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Thomas J. Overby, NAE,1 Texas A&M University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the National Academies.
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
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Contents
2 MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR ANTICIPATING RARE EVENTS
3 DETECTION, INDICATIONS, AND WARNINGS
Heading Off Megafires with Artificial Intelligence
Experiences with Anticipatory Analytics and Rare Events
Risks, Warnings, and Signals: A Systems/Risk Analysis Perspective
4 PLANNING, FORECASTING, AND INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION
Down to Earth with an Electric Hazard from Space
Planning for Rare Events: Supporting Good Governance for Resilience
Planning and Responding to Significant Rare Events
5 FIRESIDE CHAT—USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO PREDICT THE OCCURRENCE OF SEPSIS
6 FIRESIDE CHAT—RARE EVENTS AND INSURANCE
7 MULTISOURCE INFORMATION FUSION, SITUATION ASSESSMENT, AND COURSE OF ACTION SELECTION
Overcoming Failures of Imagination
Severe Space Weather as a Source of Rare Events of Major Significance
