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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26698.
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B

Workshop Agenda

DAY 1: DECEMBER 17, 2021

Session 1 — Importance and Scope

10:30 AM Introduction and Expectations of the Workshop
Christopher Barrett, Committee Chair
University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute
10:45 Sponsor Remarks
Theodore Plasse
Defense Threat Reduction Agency

Session 2 — Mathematical Foundations

11:00 Alon Orlitsky
University of California, San Diego
11:30 Break

Session 3 — Detection, Indications, and Warnings

11:45 Arvind Satyam
Pano AI
12:05 PM T. Charles Clancy
MITRE Labs
12:25 Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
Stanford University
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26698.
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12:45 Panel Discussion with Speakers 1–3
Robert Schock, Moderator
1:20 Lunch

Session 4 — Planning, Forecasting, and Intelligence Preparation

2:15 Jeffrey J. Love
U.S. Geological Survey
2:35 Nestor Alfonzo Santamaria
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
2:55 Madhav Marathe
University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute
3:15 Panel Discussion with Speakers 4–6
Christopher Barrett, Moderator
3:50 Break

Session 5 — Fireside Chat

3:55 Madeleine Clare Elish
Google Research
Michele Wucker, Moderator
4:25 Day One Concluding Remarks
Christopher Barrett, Committee Chair
University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute
4:30 Adjourn Day One

DAY 2: DECEMBER 21, 2021

Session 6 — Plenary

10:00 AM Welcome and Introduction for Day 2
Christopher Barrett, Committee Chair
University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute
10:05 Sponsor Remarks
Theodore Plasse
Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26698.
×

Session 7 — Fireside Chat

10:10 Markus Gesmann
Insurance Capital Markets Research
Michele Wucker, Moderator
11:10 Break

Session 8 — Multisource Information Fusion, Situation Assessment, and Course of Action Selection

11:25 Alice Hill
Council on Foreign Relations
11:45 Delores Knipp
University of Colorado Boulder
12:05 PM John Organek
Electric Infrastructure Security Council
12:25 Panel Discussion with Speakers 7–9
Vicki Bier, Moderator
1:00 Lunch

Session 9 — Active Prevention and Deterrence

1:50 Terik Daly
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
2:10 Seth Baum
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
2:30 Robert Axtell
George Mason University
2:50 Panel Discussion with Speakers 10-12
Justin Kasper, Moderator
3:25 Concluding Remarks
Christopher Barrett, Committee Chair
University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute
3:35 Adjourn Workshop
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26698.
×
Page 44
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26698.
×
Page 45
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26698.
×
Page 46
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The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a 2-day virtual workshop on December 17 and 21, 2021, to explore insights from world-class experts and technologists familiar with the extensive range of issues associated with anticipating rare events—those characterized by a very low probability of occurring—of major significance. Over the course of the 2-day workshop, the speakers discussed analytical methods, computational advances, data sources, and risk assessment approaches for anticipating rare events, including natural disasters, pandemics, anthropogenic threats, and widespread technological change. This proceedings is a factual summary of the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

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