National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Image

Planning the Future Space
Weather Operations and
Research Infrastructure

______

Committee on Space Weather Operations
and Research Infrastructure Workshop,
Phase II

Space Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH17CB02B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant 2126142 with the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-69366-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-69366-7
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26712

Copies of this publication are available free of charge from

Space Studies Board
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001

This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America.

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26712.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

COMMITTEE ON SPACE WEATHER OPERATIONS AND RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE WORKSHOP, PHASE II

CHRISTINA M.S. COHEN, California Institute of Technology, Co-Chair

TUIJA I. PULKKINEN, NAS, University of Michigan, Co-Chair

DANIEL N. BAKER, NAE, University of Colorado Boulder

ANTHEA J. COSTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Haystack Observatory

MARY K. HUDSON, Dartmouth College

DELORES KNIPP, University of Colorado Boulder

KD LEKA, NorthWest Research Associates

CHARLES D. NORTON, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

TERRANCE G. ONSAGER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Space Weather Prediction Center

LARRY J. PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

PETE RILEY, Predictive Science Inc.

RONALD E. TURNER, Analytical Services, Inc.

NICHOLEEN M. VIALL-KEPKO, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

ENDAWOKE YIZENGAW, The Aerospace Corporation

STAFF

ARTHUR CHARO, Senior Program Officer, Study Director

ALEXANDER BELLES, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow

GAYBRIELLE HOLBERT, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board

COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director, Space Studies Board

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

SPACE STUDIES BOARD

MARGARET G. KIVELSON, NAS, University of California, Los Angeles, Chair

GREGORY P. ASNER, NAS, Carnegie Institution for Science

ADAM BURROWS, NAS, Princeton University

JAMES H. CROCKER, NAE, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (retired)

JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara

MELINDA DARBY DYAR, Mount Holyoke College

ANTONIO L. ELIAS, NAE, Orbital ATK, Inc. (retired)

VICTORIA HAMILTON, Southwest Research Institute

DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles

ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

STEPHEN J. MACKWELL, American Institute of Physics

DAVID J. McCOMAS, Princeton University

LARRY J. PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University

ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley

MARK SAUNDERS, NASA (retired)

BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, NAE, University of Toronto

HOWARD SINGER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

ERIKA B. WAGNER, Blue Origin, LLC

PAUL D. WOOSTER, Space Exploration Technologies

EDWARD L. WRIGHT, NAS, University of California, Los Angeles

STAFF

COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director

TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations

CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate

MARGARET KNEMEYER, Financial Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

Preface

Space weather has been described as “including any and all conditions and events on the sun, in the solar wind, in near-Earth space and in our upper atmosphere that can affect space-borne and ground-based technological systems and through these, human life and endeavor.”1 Affecting technological systems at a global-scale, space weather can disrupt high-frequency radio signals, satellite-based communications, navigational satellite positioning and timing signals, spacecraft operations, and electric power delivery with cascading socioeconomic effects resulting from these disruptions. Space weather can also present an increased health risk for astronauts, as well as aviation flight crews and passengers on transpolar flights.2

Recent executive and legislative efforts have worked toward improving U.S. preparedness for space weather events and strengthening the infrastructure vital to national security and the economy. Notably, in March 2019, the White House released the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW-SAP), which contained strategic objectives and actions necessary to achieve a space weather–ready nation and provided guidance for activities of the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM).3 Passage in December 2020 of Public Law 116-181, the Promoting Research and Observations of Space Weather to Improve the Forecasting of Tomorrow Act (PROSWIFT Act), codified the elements of the NSW-SAP, prescribed the roles and objectives of the relevant federal agencies, and directed efforts to improve the transition from research to operations. All these activities speak to the importance of timely and accurate space weather forecasts.

In 2019, the National Academies was approached by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) to organize a workshop that would examine the operational and research infrastructure

___________________

1 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2014, 11. What Is Space Weather, In “Solar Storm and Space Weather - Frequently Asked Questions,” https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/spaceweather/index.html#q5.

2 American Meteorological Society, 2013, “Space Weather,” https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/space-weather.

3 In 2016, an executive order created the SWORM Subcommittee under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in order to coordinate efforts across the federal government regarding space weather.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

that supports the space weather enterprise, including an analysis of existing and potential future measurement gaps and opportunities for future enhancements. This request was subsequently modified to include two workshops, the first (Phase I) of which occurred in two parts on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020. A proceedings summarizing that workshop was published in 2021.4

The Phase I workshop was sponsored by NOAA, in consultation with NASA and NSF. The task statement for the workshop focused on space weather operations, including measurement continuity needs. Following the 2020 workshop, NASA and NSF, in consultation with NOAA, requested a follow-on workshop (Phase II) that would focus on the research agenda and observations needed to improve understanding of Sun-Earth interactions that cause space weather. Specifically, the Phase II workshop organizing committee was asked to

  1. Examine trends in available and anticipated observations, including the use of constellations of small satellites, hosted payloads, ground-based systems, international collaborations and data buys, that are likely to drive future space weather architectures; review existing and developing technologies for both research and observations;
  2. Consider the adequacy and uses of existing relevant programs across the agencies, including NASA’s Living With a Star (LWS) program and its Space Weather Science Application initiative, NSF’s Geospace research programs, and NOAA’s Research to Operations (R2O) and Operations to Research (O2R) programs for reaching the goals described above;
  3. Consider needs, gaps, and opportunities in space weather modeling and validation, including a review of the status of data assimilation and ensemble approaches;
  4. Consider how to incorporate data from NASA missions that are “one-off” or otherwise non-operational into operational environments, and assess the value and need for real-time data (e.g., by providing “beacons” on NASA research missions) to improve forecasting models; and
  5. Take into account the results of studies, including NASA’s space weather science gap analysis (part of the NASA Heliophysics Division’s Space Weather Science Application program) and the NSF report Investments in Critical Capabilities for Geospace Science (2016), to identify the key elements needed to establish a robust research infrastructure.

The Phase II workshop, conducted virtually due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, occurred on April 11-14, 2022, with sessions on agency updates, research needs, data science, observational and modeling needs, and emerging architectures relevant to the space weather research community and with ties to operational needs. The presentations, posters, and videos can be found on the project website, Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure Workshop, Phase II.5 Robert Pool served as a rapporteur for the workshop and provided the committee with an initial draft of the proceedings.

The workshop organizing committee planned the sessions by creating a list of questions that would guide the invited speakers to address the workshop task statement issues. Each session was led by a member of the organizing committee. The present proceedings is organized around the workshop agenda (Appendix B), modified for clarity and conciseness. Each chapter starts with a summary of major themes emerging from the workshop presentations and discussions that are relevant to the statement of task. It should be noted that the workshop speakers did not provide direct answers to the task element on the

___________________

4 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2021, Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/26128.

5 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, “Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure Workshop, Phase II,” https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/space-weather-operations-and-research-infrastructure-workshopphase-ii, accessed July 8, 2022.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

use of “one-off” missions for space weather operation; however, several participants expressed the need for advance cross-mission planning and (international) collaboration in building the infrastructure. Finally, this proceedings includes a summary of discussions on workforce development, which was not explicitly mentioned in the statement of task but was included as “human infrastructure need.”

Chapter 1, which aligns with the topics in Session 1, provides context and background for the workshop. Recognizing the different challenges and needs in research, observation, and modeling in the three key research areas, the Sun and heliosphere, the magnetosphere–ionosphere–thermosphere–mesosphere system, and the Ground Effects, respectively, Chapters 2, 3, and 4 focus on each of these areas separately. The final two chapters cover the entire Sun–Earth system in discussing modeling and validation needs of the space weather research community (Chapter 5), and the future architectures needed to establish a robust research infrastructure (Chapter 6).

Addressing future capabilities implies a time scale. Most of the workshop presentations and discussions focused on already existing or shortly upcoming capabilities and assets, as well as the impact of space weather on near-term technological developments (e.g., the impact on systems that will increasingly rely on precision navigation and timing). Given the focus of the discussions, this proceedings covers a time scale of perhaps the next 5-7 years.

Finally, it is to be noted that, following National Academies’ practices, this proceedings of a workshop does not include findings or recommendations. While the workshop organizers sought to get the widest possible representation, the contents of this proceedings are limited to the discussions and presentations given.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

This page intentionally left blank.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

Reviewers

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Seebany Datta-Barua, Illinois Institute of Technology,

Christine Gabrielse, The Aerospace Corporation,

Joe Giacalone, University of Arizona,

David Hysell, Cornell University,

Susan Lepri, University of Michigan, and

Harlan Spence, University of New Hampshire.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Louis J. Lanzerotti, NAE, New Jersey Institute of Technology. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×

This page intentionally left blank.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R1
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R2
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R3
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R4
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R5
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R6
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R8
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R12
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R13
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26712.
×
Page R14
Next: Summary »
Planning the Future Space Weather Operations and Research Infrastructure: Proceedings of the Phase II Workshop Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $24.00 Buy Ebook | $19.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

Affecting technological systems at a global-scale, space weather can disrupt high-frequency radio signals, satellite-based communications, navigational satellite positioning and timing signals, spacecraft operations, and electric power delivery with cascading socioeconomic effects resulting from these disruptions. Space weather can also present an increased health risk for astronauts, as well as aviation flight crews and passengers on transpolar flights.

In 2019, the National Academies was approached by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation to organize a workshop that would examine the operational and research infrastructure that supports the space weather enterprise, including an analysis of existing and potential future measurement gaps and opportunities for future enhancements. This request was subsequently modified to include two workshops, the first ("Phase I") of which occurred in two parts on June 16-17 and September 9-11, 2020.

The Phase II workshop occurred on April 11-14, 2022, with sessions on agency updates, research needs, data science, observational and modeling needs, and emerging architectures relevant to the space weather research community and with ties to operational needs. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of that workshop.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!