2020 Census
Data Products

Demographic and Housing
Characteristics File

Katrina Baum Stone, Rapporteur

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education

Proceedings of a Workshop

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This study was supported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (award number SES-1560294) and several individual contracts. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-69410-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-69410-8
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26727

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. 2020 Census Data Products: Demographic and Housing Characteristics File: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26727.

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PLANNING COMMITTEE ON 2020 CENSUS DATA PRODUCTS: DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS FILE

ELIZABETH E. GARNER (Co-Chair), Colorado Department of Local Affairs

V. JOSEPH HOTZ (Co-Chair), Duke University

RANDALL K. Q. AKEE, University of California, Los Angeles

ANUBHAV BAGLEY, Maricopa Association of Governments

DANAH BOYD, Microsoft Research

MARY A. CRAIGLE, Montana Department of Commerce

VICKIE M. MAYS, University of California, Los Angeles

MARTA TIENDA, Princeton University, Emeritus

JAN VINK, Cornell University

Study Staff

KATRINA BAUM STONE, Study Director

ANTHONY MANN, Program Associate

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Office of the Provost, Georgetown University

LAWRENCE D. BOBO, Department of Sociology, Harvard University

ANNE C. CASE, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Emeritus

MICK P. COUPER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

DIANA FARRELL, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Washington, DC

ROBERT GOERGE, Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago

ERICA L. GROSHEN, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University

DANIEL E. HO, Stanford Law School, Stanford University

HILARY HOYNES, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

DANIEL KIFER, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University

SHARON LOHR, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Emeritus

JEROME P. REITER, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University

NELA RICHARDSON, ADP Research Institute, Roseland, NJ

JUDITH A. SELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, Emeritus

C. MATTHEW SNIPP, School of the Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University

ELIZABETH A. STUART, Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Staff

MELISSA CHIU, Director

BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Senior Scholar

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar

Reviewers

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individual for her review of this proceedings: Vickie Mays, University of California, Los Angeles. We also thank staff member Ruth Cooper for reading and providing helpful comments on this manuscript.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Nicholas Nagle, Geography and Sustainability, University of Tennessee, Knoxville. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.

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Acknowledgments

This proceedings is the main product of the workshop, which was intended to provide feedback to the U.S. Census Bureau on the fitness for use of tabulations in the proposed 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics (DHC) File. Data users were invited to evaluate a set of demonstration files that applied the TopDown Algorithm (TDA) to 2010 Census data, which is being developed to protect privacy in the 2020 DHC File. The demonstration files could be evaluated against the actual 2010 published data. As explained in Chapters 1 and 3, the workshop was held only two months after the demonstration files were released to accommodate the Census Bureau’s schedule for finalizing the TDA parameters for the 2020 DHC File.

The planning committee members worked extraordinarily hard to identify workshop participants who could prepare use cases in the short time available. They were ably assisted by countless individuals who devoted significant effort in using their networks to help identify and recruit presenters. This workshop would not have been possible without their efforts. Individuals who were especially instrumental with this outreach are Melissa Chiu and Constance F. Citro of the Committee on National Statistics staff, Paul Schroeder (Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics), Andrew Reamer (George Washington University), Mary Jo Hoeksema (Population Association of America), and Meeta Anand (Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights). Lastly, a debt of gratitude is owed to David Van Riper and his team at Integrated Public Use Microdata Series University of Minnesota, who

helped convert the 2010 DHC demonstration files into formats that assisted presenters in preparing their analyses.

Contents

Acronyms and Abbreviations

1 Introduction

Background

Overview of Demonstration Data

Organization of Proceedings

2 Data Equity and Communication Strategies

Opening Remarks

Workshop Goals

Key Issues for the U.S. Census Bureau

Discussion

3 Overview of Disclosure Avoidance and Census Data Products

TopDown Algorithm

Reconstruction Attack

Implementation of Differentially Privatized Data

Primitive Geographies

Housing File Coding Error

Discussion

Turning Feedback into Action

U.S. Census Bureau Assessment of Feedback

Discussion

Status Update on Population Estimates

Blended Base Approach

Discussion

4 Evaluation of the Demonstration Data on Age

Single Year of Age

Comparisons for Young Children

Using Age for City Services

Age Heaping

Discussion

5 Evaluation of the Demonstration Data on Housing and Tenure

Household Composition

Housing Tenure

6 Evaluation of the Demonstration Data on Small Areas and Populations

Local and Regional

Urban Growth and School Planning

Data Use Needs by Local Nonprofits

Rural

Asian Americans

American Indians and Alaska Natives

Discussion

Innovative Techniques

Discussion

7 Evaluation of the Demonstration Data in Public Health

Fertility

Comparisons at County, Census Tract, and Block Levels

COVID-19

Cardiac Disease Mortality

Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations

Environmental Health Hazards

Discussion

8 Privacy Concerns

Risk of Re-identification

Perspectives from a Privacy Panel

Discussion

9 Observations on Use Cases and Needs

Strategies for Using the 2020 Decennial Data and Beyond

Housing

Schools

Civil and Human Rights

Tribal Data

Reconsideration of How to Obtain Feedback

Options for Improving User Feedback

Discussion

10 Statutory Requirements and Resource Allocation

State and Local Levels

Rural Communities

Legislative Requirements in Texas

School Enrollment Forecasting

Case Study of Taxation Allocation

11 Reflections and Ideas for Moving Forward

References

Appendix A Public Meeting Agenda

Appendix B Committee and Speaker Biosketches

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Boxes, Figures, and Tables

BOXES

1-1 Statement of Task

1-2 2022 Call for Input (excerpt)

9-1 Guiding Questions for Decennial Data and Beyond Panel

9-2 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Surveys and Research That Rely on Decennial Data

11-1 Ideas for Moving Forward Offered by Planning Committee Members

FIGURES

3-1 The geographic hierarchy (“spine”)

3-2 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics (DHC) File development and production timeline

3-3 Blended base approach

4-1 Swapping and differential privacy rates for ages 4–5 years by population tract size

4-2 Distribution of absolute percent error for population ages 0–4 years for unified school districts by race and Hispanic origin

4-3 2010 published data vs. demonstration data: Age distribution for Brooklyn Census Tract 450

4-4 Age smoothing for females in a small county

4-5 Age smoothing comparing SF1 and May 2020 and March 2022 demonstration data

5-1 Median absolute error (MdAPE) in households with children

5-2 Median absolute error (MdAPE) for “large” households (5+ people)

6-1 Hispanic owners as share of total Hispanic-occupied housing units: Number of tracts by absolute percentage point delta

6-2 Centennial school district enrollment–2021: Actual and forecasted

6-3 Average county-level discrepancy between median age with 2010 DHC and SF1 in years by 2013 RUCC

6-4 Percent difference in non-DP and DP version of number of single-race AIAN women of fertility ages in 2020 counties with 2,000+ AIAN people

7-1 Total fertility rate for Texas counties by Urban Influence Code

7-2 Age-specific fertility rate comparisons for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites between Summary File 1 (SF1) and demonstration data

7-3 County-level age-adjusted COVID-19 incidence rates by race and ethnicity

7-4 Percent difference in age-adjusted county-level heart disease mortality by overall rates and stratified by age group and sex

7-5 Change in age-adjusted rate of emergency department visits for asthma (2010)

7-6 Change in age-adjusted rate of hospitalizations for AMI (2010)

7-7 Keegan landfill site population maps

7-8 Arkla Terra Superfund population maps

9-1 Feedback on the Demographic and Housing Characteristics (DHC) File

TABLES

4-1 Key Statistics for Absolute Numeric and Absolute Percent Errors for Children Ages 0–4 Years for States, Counties, School Districts, and Places

5-1 2010 DHC Demonstration Data vs. 2010 SF1: Block Group Mean Percent of Population That Is a Householder

5-2 Mean Absolute Difference for DP Ratio vs. SF1 Ratio

5-3 Race and Hispanic Ethnicity: Percent of Block Groups with Householder/Population Rates Greater Than 100

5-4 Differences in Mean Counts, Mean Error, and Mean Percent Error Between 2010 SF1 and Demonstration DHC File

5-5 Mean Error by Households with Children, Geographic Area, and Tenure Majority

5-6 Share of Tracts in the United States with Large Errors

6-1 Comparisons for Tract 511390135

6-2 2010 Comparisons for Corvallis, Oregon

6-3 Population Change in Manhattan Chinatown

6-4 Population Change in Buffalo, New York

6-5 Birth Rates to Single-Race AIAN Women in a County in 2010, with Non-DP and DP

7-1 Difference in Demographic Estimates in Two Sites

8-1 Results: Number of Transgender Kids Identified

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Acronyms and Abbreviations