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Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023)

Chapter: Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
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Appendix A
Line-by-Line Comments

CHAPTER LINE-BY-LINE COMMENTS

CHAPTER 0: FRONT MATTER

# Page/Line Comment
1 P6/L2 Suggest citing United States Code since the Act is codified in non-scattered sections: (15 U.S.C. § 2921 et seq.).
2 P7/L10 Suggest adding “since the [Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)]” to the text, “and how methods to understand changes in Earth systems have advanced since NCA4.”
3 P7-8/L15-4 Suggest consistent reference to other chapters; sometimes just the chapter is in parentheticals, other times the name of the chapter and the chapter number are in parentheticals.
4 P8/L1-2 Suggest including Figure 1 or specific regional maps after the introduction in each regional chapter.
5 P9/L3 Suggest “these” instead of “covered.”
6 P9/L14-18 Does “calibrated” mean calibrated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) terms? Suggest more precise language or defining “calibrated” or chose different phrasing: “Authors used the IPCC terms to describe confidence and likelihood in their key messages, where appropriate.”
7 P9/L19-25 Suggest a hover function where readers online can see both the definition of confidence and likelihood and the adopted IPCC scale for each term when they hover their mouse cursor over a confidence and likelihood rating (included on page 0-10, lines 1-6) in the text.
8 P13/L8-15 This paragraph is not written for broad audiences with little exposure to climate change and should be revised for clarity: suggest adding an introductory sentence to introduce global warming levels and internal variability; suggest adding a “for reference” introduction to the last sentence in this paragraph; and avoid “in which” where possible because it is unclear. “Conversely” is confusing here because it is not quite conversely—it is more of an “actually”; and the sentence in lines 11-13 uses the word “level” multiple times, which muddles the message.
Suggest reworking these sentences to clarify the language as follows (from line 8 on): “Global warming levels can be impacted by internal variability in the climate system. Internal variability in the climate system means that even as the world rapidly warms, some years will be hotter, and some years will be cooler than the multidecadal average. Annual variability, for example when the global annual
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    average temperature is 1.5°C (2.7°F) hotter than it was from 1850 to 1900, does not mean the 1.5°C global warming level has been reached. However, annual variability like this can mean that climate impacts that were projected to occur at a given global warming level may occur even before projections indicated. In addition, temperatures in different parts of the world could be warmer than the global average. For reference, a global warming level of 2°C (3.6°F) would result in regional temperatures in parts of the United States that are more than 2°C above preindustrial levels (Figure 1.16).”
9 P13/L16-17 “Runaway impacts” is not clear; suggest revising to clarify what this phrase means.

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/L6-7 “Worst harms” is not defined in the report. Suggest instead, “faster and deeper cuts in [greenhouse gas (GHG)] emissions are achievable.”
2 P4/L16 Should reference Chapter 3 (Earth System Processes) key message on extreme events.
3 P4/L20 Suggest citing all of Chapter 4 (Water) rather than just Key Message 4.2.
4 P4/L23 Does the evidence cited in the report demonstrate that every individual American will have less harm from reduced warming? The evidence shows some Americans having some benefits. The report does support a conclusion that a reduction in adverse impacts is correlated with less warming.
5 P4/L25 “Individuals” should be mentioned. Key Message 32.5 states that governments, organizations, and individuals can reduce emissions.
6 P4/L25-31 This paragraph should be more inclusive and discuss other low-carbon energy sources discussed at length in Chapters 5 (Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand) and 32 (Mitigation) (e.g., hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage [CCUS], nuclear). Discussing only renewables is not an accurate picture of the state of the science, the technology, or industry.
7 P4/L28 Sustainable land-use is credited with helping to reduce emissions, but it is not clear where this is mentioned in the chapters. The chapters cited are Chapters 5 (Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand), 12 (Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities), and 32 (Mitigation). The section on land-use in the mitigation chapter states that net sequestration of carbon on US land has decreased from 1990 to 2020.
8 P4/L35-36 The statement implies that the decrease was due entirely to increased use of renewables. Chapter 32 (Mitigation) notes that increased use of natural gas and renewables offsets coal use. The role of natural gas should be acknowledged.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
9 P5/L4 “Risks” rather than “harms” would be more appropriate because anticipatory adaptation can be taken to reduce risk of harm. In many cases, if the harm happens, it may not be made less severe.
10 P5/L1-16 Key Message 31.4 discusses some examples of where climate services are being applied to support decision making. This should be summarized in Section 1.3.
11 P5/L11 Cite Key Message 4.2 rather than 24.4. Also note that the Committee’s comments on Chapter 24 point out such modifications are also being made to adapt to sea-level rise.
12 P6/L2-3 This is an example of a statement that is technically correct but is policy prescriptive because it implies a preference for a policy outcome. If examples of climate action that also address equity and justice can be given in the report, they can be summarized in this section of the Overview.
13 P6/L5 Suggest not using contractions in formal reports. Use “do not” rather than “don’t.”
14 P6/L7 The adverb “fairly” makes this statement policy prescriptive. The statement should be rewritten to be policy relevant without appearing to advocate a policy prescription.
15 P7/L4-6 Should add a sentence saying that studies suggest that both a more equitable and lower cost action on climate change would imply that the United States should cut emissions in advance of the global average (Key Message 32.1) (Schaeffer et al., 2020).
16 P7/L3-8 The paragraph is technically correct but leaves out a lot of important and policy relevant information. Carbon sequestration, which the literature suggests is needed to meet net zero by mid-century emissions levels, is not mentioned. In addition, the paragraph does not mention barriers to implementation of low-carbon emissions options. Also, Chapter 5 (Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand) does not address how GHG emissions can be reduced from the energy sector but focuses on climate change impacts on that sector.
17 P7/L5 Delete “preferably” because it makes the clause policy prescriptive.
18 P7/Figure 1.1 The figure is good and informative. Is it possible to have the divergence of scenarios start around 2020? If that is not possible, the caption should explain why the scenarios diverge around 2015.
19 P7/L9 The figure depicts carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which is closely correlated, but not exactly climate futures. The Committee suggests indicating that CO2 is the largest driver of climate change.
20 P7/L12-14 Suggest adding a discussion of emissions and sinks in the United States and using the word “net” before “US GHG emissions.” The second sentence in this paragraph should align with any changes made in Chapter 32 (Mitigation) based on the Committee’s review (see Chapter 3).
21 P7/L13 The phrase “avoid the worst harm” is vague. The Committee suggests replacing that phrase with reference to the 1.5°C and/or 2.0°C targets in the Paris Accord.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
22 P8-9/L35-1 Suggest offsetting “and are exacerbated by” with commas.
23 P9/L29-30 This sentence is unclear as written; suggest: “many communities are learning climate change response techniques from tribal and Indigenous leadership.”
24 P10/L2 Are the words “first and worst” scientifically defensible? There is literature, (e.g., EPA, 2021) that finds that, as the report terms, “minority” communities face relatively higher and hence disproportionate risks to climate hazards. But do they face these risks before other communities do? The word “worst” also seems loaded. The statement will be effective without the words “first and worst.”
25 P10/L12-13 The sentence is unclear and should be revised. Is the point that we have to adapt no matter how effective mitigation is?
26 P10/Figure 1.2 It is useful to display long term temperature trends in the United States The figure title should show the years in the data range used to create the figure (e.g., 1900-2020). The reader may notice areas that have been cooling. The caption should address explanations for observed cooling and, if appropriate, why the western half of the country appears to be warming more than the eastern half.
27 P11/L1-2 The word “worse” in the title has a vague meaning. It would be more precise to replace it with, for example, “more frequent and severe.”
28 P11/L12 The sentence on heat and wildfire jeopardizing outdoor sports and recreation may be overstated and does not consider other benefits of higher temperatures for warm weather recreation. The verb “jeopardize” is vague and unclear as to what the effect of extreme weather on warm weather recreation is estimated to be. While there is a lot of literature on climate change impacts on cold weather recreation, particularly skiing (e.g., Wobus et al., 2017) there appears to less literature on effects on warm weather recreation, but new literature has been published in recent years (e.g., Chan and Wichman, 2020, 2022; Gellman and Wibbenmeyer, 2022). These studies find there could be net benefits to total recreation from increased temperature but may not fully consider impacts of high heat, increased precipitation, and fire. Gellman and Wibbenmeyer (2022) addresses fire. The phrasing in the draft does adequately describe the complexity of the relationship of climate change and US recreation. This can be better addressed in the Overview and in appropriate underlying chapters such as Chapter 19 (Economics) and some of the regional chapters.
29 P12/L4-5 It is not clear why the Focus on Complex and Compound Events is cited. Key Message 4.3 and Chapter 28 (Southwest) can also be cited.
30 P12/L6-17 including Figure 1.4 The presentation of the billion-dollar disaster figure does not appropriately put the change in billion-dollar disasters in context. The paragraph in lines 6-11 attributes increase in billion-dollar disasters to “worsening weather” and line 16 states that the increase is “in part because of human caused warming.” A different figure on billion-dollar disasters is displayed in Chapter 2 (Climate Trends), but shows
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    the disasters that occurred in 2021, not the long-term trends. Figure 1.4 is introducing new information not in the underlying report. Line 15 states correctly that the data on billion-dollar disasters are adjusted for inflation. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to adjust the size of the disasters.1 However, the exposure to such disasters appears to be increasing. Three trends should be noted to appropriately put the “Billion-Dollar Disaster” data in context. First, changes in property values versus CPI should be noted.2 Second, population increased from 226 million in 1980 to 331 million in 2020—a 46 percent increase.3 Third, increased development in vulnerable areas (Iglesias et al., 2021).
31 P13/L11-12 What do the terms “significant” and “well-being” mean in this statement? The terms are vague and subject to misinterpretation.
32 P13/L30 As noted above, the phrase “first and worst” is used regarding inequitable impacts. Please use words that are supported by evidence on inequitable impacts.
33 P13/L35 Suggest defining redlining for broad audiences. The definition is included below in Section 3.3, page 1-20, lines 13-14. Suggest moving the definition up or referring readers to where it is defined.
34 P16/Table 1.2 Southwest row 2nd column The statement about groundwater is an oversimplification. See comments on Chapter 28 (Southwest).
35 P17/L2 “The things Americans value most are at risk.” Does the report examine what Americans value most? This is a quotable statement but is it supported by the evidence base?
36 P17/L6-9 The sentence beginning “The threats to the people and places we love…” is policy prescriptive. Also, the Committee suggests removing “to unavoidable change.”
37 P17/L12-15 Not all impacts of flooding are negative. There can be some positive ecosystem benefits (see page 4-6, lines 3-10).
38 P17-18/L12-12 The section should also discuss impacts of climate change on water quality.
39 P17/L20-21 The statement about excessive rainfall is in Chapter 24 (Midwest).
40 P17/L34 The Committee agrees with the statement about vulnerability of small water systems but does not see supporting information in Chapters 4 (Water) or 28 (Southwest).
41 P17/L37 Chapter 4 (Water) does not discuss how nature-based solutions (NBSs) can improve water supplies. It does address the role of NBSs and flooding.

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1 See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions.

2 See https://anytimeestimate.com/research/housing-prices-vs-inflation.

3 See https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
42 P18/L14 The Committee suggests caution in using “will” in this key statement because it implies there is virtually no uncertainty about the outcome. While the report cites published literature projecting decreases in agriculture output, uncertainties about potential changes in baseline conditions and the effectiveness of adaptation should result in some reduction in likelihood or confidence in this statement. The heading that disruptions to the food system are “expected” to increase is appropriate. “Expected” is a useful way to summarize what is projected, whereas “will” conveys certainty about the projection. See the traceable accounts regarding Key Message 11.1.
43 P19/L1-5 The statement on the effect of carbon fertilization and changes in climate is confusing. It is not clear whether the first sentence means that CO2, temperature, and precipitation acting together reduce yields or whether each factor alone reduces yields. The second sentence states that high CO2 concentrations and longer growing seasons by themselves have beneficial effects. The Committee suggests clarifying the relationships among the driving variables and the combined effect.
44 P19/L13-17 The paragraph as written is fine. What is not addressed here or in Chapter 11 (Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities) is whether adaptation by the agriculture sector could offset the adverse impacts of climate change. Is it technologically possible or do we not know? Are there barriers to implementation of technological and managerial changes that would result in adaptation being less effective? Such informative could be very informative to the agriculture sector.
45 P20/L5-9 The sentences describing how low-income households are more vulnerable to higher energy costs are true. The Overview should note, however, that annual energy expenditures are projected to decrease because reduced heating costs are projected to offset increased cooling costs (see Chapter 19 [Economics]).
46 P20/L27-31 There is an implication here that these extreme events and other changes are directly due to climate change. However, authors should make it clear that these events may have become more likely because of climate change, not that they were directly caused by climate change. Consider adding a sentence at the beginning indicating that no single event can be directly attributed to climate but that the odds of some events has increased due to climate change.
47 P20/L31-33 The text states that millions of internal migrants are “expected,” which we interpret to mean are projected. Chapter 19 (Economics) discusses migration but states that numbers cannot be projected. Chapters 28 (Southwest) and 26 (Southern Great Plains) raise the possibility of migration into the United States from Mexico but do not project numbers. The Committee cannot find discussion in the report on internal migration nor any projections of how many people would migrate. The Committee’s understanding is that while
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    migration is quite possible it is difficult to project how many migrants there can be, where they come from, and where they go. The Committee suggests carefully reviewing the relevant chapters and revising statements on migration to reflect what is in those chapters. The Committee cautions against reporting specific projections largely because the field of migration projections from climate change is in a nascent stage and specific projections should be treated with caution.
48 P21-22/L26-3 The science suggests that climate change will cause more intense, but fewer hurricanes. This statement should be consistent with this.
49 P22/L10-14 The paragraph on adaptation of infrastructure is sound but, as noted above, it does not address whether adaptation has the potential to offset adverse impacts of climate change, or how expensive or feasible such measures may be. Infrastructure adaptation is often incremental. Since the report discusses the need for transformation, is the effectiveness of incremental adaptation limited, particularly under higher emissions scenarios?
50 P22/L13-14 Suggest adding “among other actions” to the end of this sentence.
51 P22/L24 The word “devastating” may not be appropriate for a scientific report.
52 P22/L25 The term “well-being” is vague. Perhaps it would be more focused to address the extent of health impacts from climate change across the country (i.e., whether the health of Americans is being adversely affected by climate change).
53 P23/L1-2 “Of families and communities across the country, with more people exposed to a compounding mix of health hazards, including.” Please add “increasing the odds of.”
54 P23/L8 Does the report support the statement that climate change harms everyone’s health?
55 P23/L14 Suggest “contexts” instead of “impacts.”
56 P24/L12 Recommend starting this section with the point that climate is not the only stressor on ecosystems: land-use, air, and water pollution are also occurring at the same time and adding stressors (Chapters 6 [Land Cover and Land-Use Change] and 7 [Forests]).
57 P24/L19-21 The Committee suggests phrasing this as a risk management matter (i.e., the risks of passing ecological tipping points increases with higher emissions).
58 P24/L23-24 “Many climate impacts, particularly changes in ocean conditions and extreme events, already threaten coastal, and aquatic, and marine ecosystems (Figure 1.10).” Include “increase in the odds for some extreme events.”
59 P25/L1-3 Is the projection about fish die-off tied to a particular scenario or scenarios? This is important to help readers understand how likely the outcome is and whether mitigation reduces the likelihood of the outcome.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
60 P25/L21 The title of the section states “and abroad.” The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) focuses on impacts on the United States. Chapter 17 (Climate Effects on US International Interests) focuses on international impacts on US international interests and does not summarize international impacts (page 17-18, lines 19-20). Thus, it is not appropriate to have “and abroad” because international impacts are not a subject of NCA5.
61 P25/L25-26 The finding on projected international economic impacts is based on one study (Swiss Re, 2021) which was not published in a peer-reviewed journal and appears to be an extreme estimate. Chapter 19 (Economics) (page 19-12) finds that for each 1°F increase in average temperature, US gross domestic product (GDP) is projected (not “will”) be reduced by approximately 0.13 percent. Several citations are given. Since the latter comes from a chapter about economics rather than international impacts, the Committee suggests citing that projection instead of the international GDP projection.
62 P26/L9-15 Authors should mention justice concerns regarding mitigation and adaptation (i.e., that mitigation and adaptation are done in a way that does not adversely impact already overburdened communities).
63 P27/L1-2 A more accurate heading would be “Many regional economies and livelihoods….”
64 P27/L3-4 The sentence is technically correct (see comment above), but it does reflect the entire draft NCA5 report, which identifies some sectors and regions that are projected to have some benefits.
65 P27/L3-7 Please add a sentence or phrase here emphasizing that usually already overburdened communities suffer more.
66 P27/L18-22 The paragraph only mentions adverse impacts on Midwest agriculture and does not mention any positive impacts such as improved wheat yields (see Key Message 24.1, page 24-4, lines 10-11). The Committee recognizes that overall, US agriculture is projected to face losses. Chapter 1 (Overview) should reflect the breadth of findings on agriculture.
67 P27/L23-26 Suggest including a note about building out new energy technology. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes many changes in the tax credit system to build out a variety of energy sources and there are worker apprenticeship and vulnerable populations considerations built into the credits. This discussion is frequently omitted from the Chapter 1 (Overview) discussion of energy, and fossils fuels are compared repeatedly to renewables, which is not the full picture. Suggest: “…shift as the energy sector transforms toward more renewables and low carbon technologies, electrification of more sectors of the economy, and power infrastructure….”
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
68 P27/L27-29 The examples for outdoor industries are geographically limited and only focus on certain activities. Please refer to the Committee’s comments on page 1-12, lines 1-2, on the broader recreation literature. Studies that have examined impacts on total recreation in the United States have estimated net increases in welfare and expenditures. This can be tempered by noting decreases in cold weather recreation and how sea-level rise, more intense storms, and fire can limit recreation gains and reduce it in some cases.
69 P28/L1-8 Figure 1.14: The Committee has comments on recreation in Chapters 1 (Overview) and 19 (Economics). Chapter 1 (Overview) points out limitations on recreation from extreme events and reduced cold weather activities such as skiing but does not address the effect of higher temperatures on warm weather recreation and whether a longer time period with warm weather will be offset by extreme events.
70 P28/L3-4 Figure 1.12: What is the citation for the statement that Colorado ski resorts have lost revenue of because of declining snowfall? Vail Resorts does not report declining revenues since 2019.4 These years were affected by COVID-19, but revenues in 2022 were about 10 percent higher than 2019.
71 P28/L13-15 The Committee applauds the caution applied to projections of climate change on crime and domestic violence, mental health, and happiness. We also note that the literature on annual recreation impacts does not find there will be a reduction in overall recreational but most certainly a reduction in some aspects, such as skiing, and adverse impacts on many warm weather recreation activities from extreme events and fire.
72 P29/L13 The title should be “cultures, heritages, and traditions.”
73 P29/L14-15 The language in the sentence is sweeping and the Committee questions whether it is fully supported by the draft NCA5 report. Is the language meant to imply that all community ties, pastimes, and landscapes are being threatened or some? Is the clause “Americans are losing the things that make them feel at home” appropriate for a scientific report?
74 P29/L24-26 The focus of the bullet is on cold weather recreation with no mention of how warm weather recreation can be affected. Even though the discussion is on what aspects of Americans’ lives are being lost or threatened, by leaving out what could be benefits to warm weather recreation, the discussion is unbalanced.

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4 See https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MTN/vail-resorts/revenue.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
75 P30/L1-13 The discussion on outdoor activities and particularly the analysis of implications for outdoor industry does not reflect the literature on climate change impacts on recreation. The discussion ignores that higher temperatures will lead to a longer season for outdoor recreation (see literature cited in comment on page 1-12, lines 1-2). The chapters cited do not address tourism across the country and Chapter 19 (Economics) does not cover tourism. The literature establishes that some aspects of tourism are projected to be adversely affected, but it does not find that all recreation or tourism will be reduced.
76 P31/L3-5 In the sentence beginning, “The extent of…” what is meant by “today?” Does this imply that decisions made “tomorrow” are ineffective or less effective? It is not clear that the draft NCA5 report has addressed effectiveness of timing of mitigation measures.
77 P31/L7-22 The Committee agrees that the more GHG emissions are reduced the more risks are reduced, but the statement is incomplete in that it does not address sequestration or removal and options to reduce radiative forcing. The Committee suggests using the term “net emissions” to include sequestration. Authors should cite Chapters 7 (Forests), 11 (Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities), and 32 (Mitigation).
78 P31/L24-28 Chapter 3 (Earth System Processes) discusses use of climate scenarios, and Chapter 1 (Overview) should cite the chapter.
79 P31/L29 Insert “emissions” before “scenarios” to clarify these are emissions scenarios.
80 P31/L29-31 The sentence beginning “This is due to…” is confusing. Chapter 32 (Mitigation) should also be listed as a source backing up the statements because it addresses infrastructure, economics, and policy.
81 P35/Figure 1.17 Suggest including the y-axis labels on the right graphs as well as the left.
82 P36-41/Section 5 Note that the general comments on Chapter 1 (Overview) in Chapter 3 of this report raise concerns about this section having many policy prescriptive statements. The content of many of these statements can be revised to be policy informative without appearing to be policy prescriptive.
83 P36/L2-7 The entire paragraph is policy prescriptive. The term “worst consequences” is unclear particularly regarding how much of a change in climate is associated with them. Does “avoided” mean they will not happen, they will be less severe, or the risks are reduced? Did the draft NCA5 report find that anything less than “large-scale” and “drastic” decarbonization of the economy will be ineffective? What about carbon sequestration or other options to reduce radiative forcing? The sentence on transformative mitigation and adaptation is policy prescriptive.
84 P36/L5 Would “near term” be more accurate than “immediate?”
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
85 P36/L9-10 The first sentence of the paragraph is policy prescriptive. Beyond that, does the draft NCA5 report analyze the timing of emissions reductions?
86 P36/L11 To be more accurate, the statement should say many options are “relatively cost effective.” Neither the statement nor the analysis addresses whether the benefits of the options are greater than the costs.
87 P38/L8 Suggest changing the title of the section to “net emissions.”
88 P38/L18-19 This statement does not reflect content in Chapters 5 (Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand) and 32 (Mitigation). Low-carbon, hydrogen, and nuclear should also be included.
89 P38/L29-34 These sentences omit the challenges of grid stress, the need to build out distributed energy resources, zero-and low-carbon electricity sources, and resources needed to build out infrastructure to support the energy transition (i.e., critical minerals) (cite Chapter 5 [Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand] and 32 [Mitigation]). Suggest updating the last sentence in the paragraph to read “recent legislation (IRA) has incentivized the deployment of low carbon, zero carbon, and renewable energy generation.”
90 P39/L1 While transformative adaptation can reduce unequal vulnerabilities it is not evident that it will automatically do so. As noted elsewhere, it is not difficult to think of transformative adaptations that could continue or even exacerbate unequal vulnerabilities. Such potential outcomes are discussed briefly on page 31-10, lines 24-26.
91 P39/L9-11 Is the issue that all transformative adaptation should meet these criteria to be considered or is it that to be just, transformative adaptation should meet these criteria? This could be considered policy prescriptive.
92 P39/L9-16 This is a very important paragraph that should be rewritten in language that broad audiences can understand.
93 P39/L18-24 It is not clear how the restoration of the watershed was transformative. Was it a result of the governance process that was used?
94 P40/L2-18 This section seems repetitive; if needed, these points could be made in other sections or shortened. The next section and other justice concerns could be expanded instead.
95 P40/L19 The section title is policy prescriptive because it implies a preference for a particular policy approach.

CHAPTER 2: CLIMATE TRENDS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P2-13/L20-24 Citations are missing for statements in this section.
2 P3/L15 Suggest not beginning a paragraph with a nebulous subject like “this.” What, specifically, has consequences for the United States?
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
3 P3/L16 Suggest replacing “this changing climate” with “climate change.”
4 P4/L12-13 The last sentence could be construed as policy prescriptive. The penultimate sentence is excellent, however, and would be a perfectly fine way to end the paragraph. Suggest removing the last sentence altogether.
5 P4/L17 Suggest replacing “even more warming” with “higher than average warming.”
6 P7/L5-9 Definition of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the figure caption is welcome but suggest adding some context for the units. Is this a trend in AOD per year? Overall change in AOD during the period in question? How does the magnitude of the trend compare to the mean? Without the latter, it is not possible to know if the trend is impactful (i.e., is it 0.1% change or a 50% change?). It is not clear from the figure caption.
7 P11/L4-5 More support is needed for the statement that US sea-level is accelerating. Figure 2.5 shows trends, not acceleration. Appendix 4 shows a single sea-level curve for the United States—assuming the authors are referencing Figure A4.10—but it may be difficult for the general reader to ascertain acceleration in the curve. Suggest adding either a quadratic or trend lines pre- and post-1990 to Figure A4.10. Also suggest removing the reference to Figure 2.5 here, because it does not relate to acceleration.
8 P11/L9-12 Suggest adding the role of Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability (i.e., Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]) in suppressing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) along the west coast of North America (e.g., Bromirski et al., 2011; Moon et al., 2013).
9 P12/L25-37 Suggest connecting the statements in this paragraph to specific US regions and territories (e.g., changing Pacific cyclone tracks and El Niño-Southern Oscillation [ENSO] for US-Affiliated Pacific Islands [USAPI] and changes to hurricane frequency for the Southeast).
10 P13/L13-17 The last sentence in this section is out of place as this section is not about flooding and would be more relevant as the last sentence in the section of text on page 2-11.
11 P15/L27 Paleoclimate research has been very helpful in understanding the western US climate changes. It will be helpful to add some discussion with references on paleoclimate here.
12 P16/L14 It will be helpful to add a reference like Albano et al. (2022) that provides a more complete and newer assessment than Williams et al. (2020), including being continental US scale rather than Southwest limited and being based on multiple different data sources.
13 P17/L1-2 Is this Sweet et al. citation correct? The referenced report is about SLR scenarios.
14 P18/L31-35 The mixing of degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit in this paragraph is confusing. Suggest choosing one or providing both in all cases not just some cases.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
15 P21/L17 Please add the data source: CMIP5 or CMIP6? It is not clear what LOCA2 means.
16 P22/L5 Please add the data source: CMIP5 or CMIP6? It is not clear what LOCA2 means.
17 P22/L7-10 It should be noted and referenced that the recent multidecadal drought in the Southwest United States is at least partially due to natural variability and not entirely due to human-driven climate change.
18 P25/L13 Missing the upper bound on the range “3 to ? billion.”
19 P27/L17-20 The word “likely” has a specific meaning in NCA5 in terms of probability (>66%). The values presented here appear to correspond to the entire range of scenarios from Low to High, which does not correspond to the likely range as it is defined for NCA5.
20 P27/L26 The tone of the sentence sounds too strong. Consider rephrasing.
21 P29/L2 “Nonlinearly” is likely not an accessible word for broad audiences.
22 P34/L1 The key message title here differs from the title elsewhere.

CHAPTER 3: EARTH SYSTEMS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/L2-3 This is the first line on land-use effects on climate: much of the land-use effects will be direct albedo modification, but this is not mentioned.
2 P5/L29-30 Please add caveats: this statement is only true in a few places (i.e., North America and Europe) where they analyzed data. There are no data in places we expect to see increases (e.g., Asia).
3 P10/L9-10 Is “sequencing” the wrong word? Longer than a decade? Projections longer than 2 days start getting quite uncertain.
4 P14/L3-4 Please try to indicate the proportion or be more specific.
5 P16/L1 The discussion of global warming levels warrants a new paragraph.
6 P17/L25 Perhaps use a more recent addition to the Shepherd (2016) “storyline” citation, which is all about how to construct/populate storyline scenarios (for attribution or otherwise), (e.g., Albano et al., 2022).
7 P18/L1 “Storms that might have been”: perhaps it is worthwhile to mention “pseudo-warming experiments” here, as it seems that this is one of the recent approaches to disentangling natural from climate change contributions in some individual events (e.g., Gutmann et al., 2018; Michaelis et al., 2022; Ullrich et al., 2018).
8 P18/L14-15 In addition to increased frequency and magnitude, “increases in duration” of various extreme events (heat waves and many storms) should be included here. In many settings, the duration can be deadly (in case of heat waves) or results in largest precipitation totals (e.g., Kossin, 2018; van Oldenborgh et al., 2018).
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
9 P19/L31 California is a great example of the final statement in this paragraph (e.g., Polade et al., 2017).
10 P19/L31-32 Please remove the “thus” as separate points which do not necessarily occur at the same time.
11 P19/L36 This is an important paragraph, but does not talk about all the implications, including making it harder to do detection and attribution studies.
12 P20/L3 Total vapor transport is a natural combination of both changes in total vapor content and the circulation changes discussed here and goes a long way toward simplifying the statement of conclusions. Lavers et al. (2015) would simplify the discussion.
13 P22/L11 Atmospheric water demand can change as well and could be discussed here (e.g., Albano et al., 2022; McEvoy et al., 2020).
14 P28/L31 Perhaps including in this chapter some of the changes in storm tracks impacting the west coast storms could be helpful and using more recent papers instead of Neelin et al. (2013).
15 P34/L23-28 The authors should concentrate on citing the evidence base, not discussing the scientists themselves. Replace “Scientists have known” with “Scientific studies show.”
16 P35/L1-6 This paragraph discusses topics that are not in this key message: should be moved or removed. Attribution is discussed later in the chapter.

CHAPTER 4: WATER

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L6-7 Suggest placing the first clause of this sentence at the end of the sentence for greater clarity. As written, it is unclear whether climate change is responsible for greater exposure and vulnerability, which is what the sentence is trying to convey. Suggested modification: “Climate change is increasing the frequency, of water-related disasters in the United States and causing greater exposure and vulnerability to these disasters.”
2 P3/L13-15 The statement about water security seemingly has nothing to do with the next sentence about water quality. It leaves the audiences to deduce the relation between climate impacts to water quality and water security. Suggest improved clarity in language and adding inline descriptive and transitionary language, for example: “Water security refers to the adequate supply of clean water, whereas water quality refers to the availability of clean water. Human-caused climate change is expected to directly impact the availability of clean water, which indirectly threatens the availability of that water for use by people and ecosystems.”
3 P3/Figure 4.1 This is an effective representation of year-by-year changes in the occurrence and kinds of billion-dollar disasters since 1980. Can a
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    brief listing of (or more specific term for) what kinds of storms constitute the “severe storms” category be included in the caption? The audiences will be broader than the meteorology community.
4 P5/L5-7 The words “regulations and standards” would be more accurate as “policies, regulations, and formal agreements.”
5 P5/L14-16 This sentence is not accurate; it should mention climate change. It should read: “These and similar efforts are the first steps toward building resilient human and natural systems in the face of climate induced changes to the water cycle.”
6 P5/L18 “Human-caused climate change,” rather than just “climate change.”
7 P5/L20 Declaring that “many regions … see more precipitation” seems problematic here, when even Figure 4.3 shows that fully a third of the country is projected to see less. A few words added could hand this pivotal projection (for this chapter) more informatively: “see more precipitation in the northern parts, and less precipitation in the southern parts.”
8 P5/L21 More precipitation does not always yield more floods. Floods depend on a lot of additional factors, like antecedent soil moisture, precipitation form (rain versus snow), and vegetation/land cover. For example, as stated in the caption of Figure 4.12, well less than half of recent flood increases can be attributed to increasing precipitation.
9 P5/L27-29 Suggest describing the water cycle and any natural variability. Then discuss climate change impacts to the water cycle. These topics are sometimes lumped together in the chapter.
10 P5/L30 This section on precipitation has no citations; please add some.
11 P6/L11-17 This section on evapotranspiration (ET) changes assumes audiences understand the how ET relates to climate change, but it likely will not. Suggest brief descriptions: How does ET relate to climate change? Explain to general audiences how climate change can influence ET. Explain in what regions will climate change cause ET to go up and in what regions will climate change cause ET to go down. When ET goes up/down is that good or bad? Why? This explanatory text could also be integrated into the caption text for Figure 4.4.
12 P7/L8-23 Some of the citations in this section detailing snow and glacier changes are quite old. Is there new literature looking at this?
13 P7/L11 These references regarding snow versus rain transitions are old. Several more recent studies have revisited and honed understanding of how this works (e.g., Harpold and Brooks, 2018; Harpold et al., 2017).
14 P8/L17 This projection of increasing soil moisture “in the northern US” is essentially diametrically at odds with Figure 4.6.
15 P9/L8-21 Are there regional differences in groundwater change expected due to climate change?
16 P9/L15 Are higher temperatures related to climate change? If so, make sure to say so.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
17 P9/L15-20 The summary of projected western groundwater-recharge changes (i.e., “decreas[ing] natural recharge across much of the West,” stated without confidence level) is a key example of this kind of overbroad depiction of change and is directly contradicted by a key figure (6) in their primary citation (Niraula et al., 2017), which shows very different outcomes in different regions, time frames, and from different climate models. This conclusion is based on one cited research paper and based on one model analysis untested by other groups, so that confidence should be relatively modest, at present. Furthermore, it would be a breakthrough if this NCA5 report acknowledged that groundwater recharge varies temporally with important lessons for climate-change assessment from understanding and quantifying these variations.
18 P9/Figure 4.6 The projections of increased summer soil moisture over much of the Southwest here are a puzzle that should be discussed. The pattern also needs to be communicated to, and coordinated with, the authors of Chapter 28 (Southwest), who draw a different conclusion (projecting soil moisture declines there, even though their own soil moisture Figure 28.2a shows this same increase in soil moisture).
19 P10/L18 Streams dependent on glacial melt are expected to have increased flows in coming decades (as the ice melts) followed by flow declines later after the ice is essentially gone.
20 P11/Figure 4.8 This is a useful infographic indicating both the complexity of projecting future flood changes and the mechanisms that will determine those changes. Maintain tense alignment in all three text boxes (e.g., “Decreased flood magnitude…” should be listed for each bullet under “Decreases In Flood Activity” box rather than “Decreased flood magnitude…” and then “Decrease in magnitude”).
21 P14/Box 4.1 The material presented in this box very much follows the discussion (and even choice of figures) from Harpold et al. (2017). This article is also where the warm snow drought/dry snow drought nomenclature was formally developed and recommended. Thus, the citations included here should be adjusted accordingly.
22 P15/L4 It is not immediately clear what “the frontlines of climate change” are and this should be defined for broad audiences. This term is used throughout the report so this might be easily solved by adding the term to a glossary or index. Alternatively, a different term in the key message language could be used.
23 P15/Figure 4.12 Clarify whether precipitation change is due to climate change in the figure title and caption.
24 P15/Figure 4.12 This is an interesting and informative way to show recent trends in US flood damages. It would be useful to briefly list some of the “other” causes of flood damage (besides increased precipitation) in the caption, since this is not stated in the text (other than an allusion to increasing amount of impermeable surface, which is not the only other cause).
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
25 P16/L5 High precipitation routinely overwhelms many stormwater-sewer systems around the country, probably more than captured by “can.”
26 P16/L3-10 No mention is made of positive effects of floods on farmlands and floodplains (such as soil renewal and dissipation of flood impacts downstream). Including this observation would also provide an opportunity to mention corresponding reforms in US Army Corps of Engineers policy.
27 P16/L11 This text does not mention climate change until the fourth paragraph and instead seems to expect the audiences to infer that the discussion pertains to climate change. Suggest improving clarity and focus of language to focus on specific climate change impacts to drought.
28 P16/L19 “Megadroughts” are (historically) natural events. The point that megadroughts have happened many times in the natural past is neglected throughout this chapter, which makes for a dangerously one-sided presentation of, for example, developing conditions in the Colorado River basin.
29 P16/Figure 4.13 The caption says higher temperatures and human use can exacerbate or even cause drought. Please clarify whether this means higher human use of what resources (e.g., water, land). Also, should the last sentence be an “and” or an “and/or” rather than an “or” when discussing that drought can develop in a matter of weeks and/or last for decades?
30 P17/L4 Drought-driven streamflow (and lake level) declines also threaten cooling-water supplies for thermoelectric (traditional and nuclear power plants) systems, impacting many non-hydropower systems. Also correct this at page 4-18, line 10.
31 P17/L5 Discussion lacks mention of transportation impacts of droughts and floods along major rivers.
32 P17/L10 Consider replacing “insects” with “pests” to be more comprehensive.
33 P17/L14 If increased groundwater pumping is region specific, authors should note that detail in the text. The literature cited does not represent the United States broadly. Bloomfield (2019) is looking at groundwater in the United Kingdom; Hanson et al. (2012) is using a case study of California not looking at the United States broadly and discusses a method to assess how climate change could affect surface water and groundwater rise in highly developed agro-urban watersheds; and Scanlon et al. (2012) looks at the high plains and central valley of California and does not represent a nation-wide trend. What about other types of watersheds? What about other regions? The literature cited does not represent the United States broadly nor does it represent the very broad statement in the supporting text.
34 P17/L17 Increased pumping can increase land subsidence, not “does.” Land subsidence depends on a lot of factors that all have to be aligned for it to occur.
35 P17-18/L23-11 Consider mentioning tribal rights to water in the drought-stricken Colorado River basin that have yet to be quantified.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
36 P18/L21 Duration of precipitation is also projected to increase (e.g., Gutmann et al., 2018; Kossin, 2018) in ways that will mimic or exacerbate the impacts of heavier precipitation.
37 P18/Figure 4.15 This is a graphically simple depiction of the disproportional distribution of flood damages projected over the next 30 years. It is an excellent addition to this key message and Box 4.2 that should be discussed in both.
38 P18-19/Box 4.2 This material dives relatedly into the topic of Key Message 4.2 by focusing on the specific case of Hurricane Katrina flooding and Houston. It should refer to Figure 4.15 where it notes “as with recent floods elsewhere” to drive home the representativeness of what this Katrina example indicates more broadly. It also needs to cite the corresponding regional chapter and should tie back to climate change at least briefly to be entirely clear that, whether or not Katrina was enhanced by climate change (and lots of attribution studies suggest it likely was), it is a good model of how disparities arise and play out.
39 P19/L11 What type of infrastructure is being discussed? Add text to improve clarity of language.
40 P19/L11-17 This is stated entirely in terms of impacts on tribes, which is accurate and well-motivated, but many of these impacts also apply to other disadvantaged, underserved communities elsewhere, which should be acknowledged.
41 P21/L10 Suggest explaining why uncertainty always factors into water planning.
42 P21/L20-21 Saying that water disputes are typically resolved using litigation is not quite accurate. It depends on the scope of the dispute and the disputing bodies. If two people, two states, two countries, or tribes versus other users there are actually a variety of ways disputes can be resolved. Additionally, the reference cited does not support this statement. Suggest deleting this sentence and adding the text suggested in the next comment.
43 P21/L21-23 This sentence is overly simplified, the references provided are not legal, and they do not discuss the entire body of law that applies to the Colorado River, which determines what allocation options are available for water rights holders. A more accurate sentence might say: “Climate change impacts to water supplies can result in competition, collaboration, or conflict. Tools may include litigation, administrative proceedings, treaty negotiations, compacts, and/or cooperative agreements, among others. Under current severe drought conditions, water rights holders in the Colorado River basin, including Mexico, tribal nations, states, and other interested parties are struggling to adapt under the existing legal framework—one that was mistakenly based on the assumption of continued flows and on an above average historic estimate of total water available to apportion. While some of these efforts include tribes....” See suggested citation (Garofalo, 2019).
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
44 P21/L18-26 Suggest moving Figure 4.19 to under the discussion of the Colorado River here after line 26.
45 P21-22/Box 4.3 This material does a nice, brief job of illustrating how interjurisdictional cooperation can succeed, but a word or two more about how climate change will be addressed under the new management plan, or at least how the expected success of the plan will likely be impacted by climate change, would make it much more relevant to this chapter and report. The corresponding regional chapter should also be cited.
46 P22/Figure 4.18 The caption should address the level of scientific understanding arrow across the bottom of the image.
47 P23/L17 It is worth noting, here and elsewhere in this chapter, that natural variability of storms and droughts (and temperatures) are projected to increase in magnitude (e.g., IPCC, 2021a).
48 P24/Figure 4.19 The figure is important and yet left until the end of the chapter and then not fully discussed. This is where the issue of how much of the recent western megadrought is climate change and where the issue of how much normal climate variability can and will mask and/or interact with coming climate changes is finally given some illustration. Having this figure appear earlier in the chapter and having what it shows described there in detail would be a major improvement to the chapter as a whole.
49 P26/L26-36 This projection is largely missing from the key messages, replaced instead with descriptions of a recent paper. Albano et al. (2022) provides useful multi-dataset comparisons and analyses of evaporative demand trends over the contiguous United States and might be considered in this traceable account.
50 P26/L26 Consider mentioning the status of the long-standing discussions of measured pan evaporation trends (or lack thereof) in this context in this traceable account (given the strong assertion regarding future evaporative demands here).
51 P26/L31 Neither changes nor variability in recharge have been well quantified or projected.
52 P26/L33 The advancement of snowmelt timing is also projected to increase overall (annual) streamflow totals in many areas (e.g., Ban and Lettenmaier, 2022; Barnhart et al., 2016).
53 P27/L5 This section makes many strong and concise statements but needs citations to support those statements regarding uncertainties and gaps.
54 P27/L6 This chapter regarding water should be more careful about not ascribing most uncertainties to precipitation; rising temperatures (as has been acknowledged earlier in this chapter) are projected to have major impacts on future water. Better to drop the “especially precipitation” here. There will still be significant uncertainties about how much warming will occur and quantitatively how much that warming will impact water in which ways.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
55 P27/L28 This is a good acknowledgment of real uncertainties as to how complicated the pathways to eventual streamflow outcomes will be. It might be worth also acknowledging that the more recent literature has been turning up “second-order influences” beyond just precipitation and temperature impacts, including factors like humidity (e.g., Harpold and Brooks, 2018; Harpold et al., 2017).
56 P27/L37-38 See Albano et al. (2022), which has resolved many disagreements through a multi-dataset comparison of the various trends and non-trends.
57 P28/L6 This discussion regarding groundwater pumpage impacts is focused entirely on irrigation pumping and ignores the equally impactful and widespread issue of urban pumpage.
58 P28/L17 Consider adding “outside of the most heavily groundwater-developed areas” to the end of this sentence. There are a lot of groundwater level data in places that are dealing with overdrafts; there is much less data collected where climate is a primary driver. There is also very little monitoring directed at tracking recharge variations.
59 P28/L22 This characterization of precipitation as only increasing is misleading and does not agree with the chapter’s own maps. The traceable account for Key Message 4.1 does not touch on the water quality issues raised in Figure 4.2.
60 P28/L27 Some mention of confidence and likelihoods regarding water quality changes is needed.
61 P28/L33 Given that this sentence starts out talking about natural conditions (and presumably variability), this statement that extreme events will increase amounts to a non sequitur (not an incorrect statement, but it does not follow from the “evidence” of the first half of the sentence).
62 P29/L20 Add “water quality” to this list of research needs.
63 P29/L21 The “Major Uncertainties and Gaps” discussion neglects to mention the extreme limitations of our knowledge regarding water quality impacts of these extremes. It states, “There is uncertainty about…” and neglects to categorize how much uncertainty.
64 P29/L25 The “Description of Confidence and Likelihood” discussion on lines 27-28 makes a weak case for (and nearly contradicts) the Key Message 4.2 conclusion that these systems cannot adapt quickly. Mostly this paragraph is a restatement of the claims of Key Message 4.2 rather than a description of how confidence/likelihood were assigned.
65 P30/L23-24 This same assertion that a lack of downscaled projections is the limiting factor was made, with no more evidence here than in Key Message 4.3. Either here or there, more citations supporting this assertion are needed.
66 P30/L34 Some literature support for this assertion that adaptation efforts are proceeding slower than climate change would be extremely useful; not disputing it but would very much like to have that evidence at hand.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
67 P31-42 None of the citations for the figures from University of Colorado are in the bibliography.

CHAPTER 5: ENERGY SUPPLY, DELIVERY, AND DEMAND

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L1-18 The introduction does a great job defining words in text, for instance adaptation and the changing risk profile.
2 P3/L23-25 The last sentence of the key message should be reorganized to have active voice and more clearly establish that the extreme precipitation, extreme temperatures, sea-level rise, and more intense storms, droughts, and wildfires are likely to damage energy infrastructure and disrupt energy system operations. Using active voice in sentences with confidence and likelihood ratings helps the rating make more sense.
3 P3/L29-30 Mention permafrost impacts on distribution and energy consumers. These are discussed on page 5-7, lines 3-7, in terms of production.
4 P5/L1-3 Add language to improve clarity to this sentence: “and are projected to be impacted by changes in solar irradiance.”
5 P5/L10-31 The discussion about electricity generation and water availability omits discussion of how some low- and zero-carbon technologies use more, in some cases much more water. Thus, the demand for water could increase with the deployment of some low- and zero-carbon electricity and energy generation processes. Citations are included in the chapter but CCUS, small modular nuclear reactors, and hydrogen can all increase water demands.
6 P5/L15-16 The connection of dam-removal-to-protect-vulnerable-species to climate change is not clearly articulated and should be clarified.
7 P5-6/L17-7 Suggest adding brief discussion in first paragraph of this section on oil and gas delivery that discusses what oil and gas are used for besides electricity so that even in a “transitioned” world, their development, use, and delivery is relevant.
8 P5/L21 Use of the term “risks” in this case does not seem to conform to recommendations of the IPCC on risk language.
9 P5/L27-29 For the sentence discussing operations relying on reservoir storage, clarify whether this is particularly difficult in some regions of the United States as compared to others.
10 P6/L1 Is this only true of aging assets?
11 P6/L9-10 Subsidence and landslides—specifically climate change driven?
12 P7/L12 Suggest using “as well as” instead of “and” in line 12 between consumption and peak demand patterns.
13 P7/Figure 5.2 and L8-13 Suggest integrating Figure 5.2 into text discussing electricity demand by discussing timelines depicted in the figure in the text.
14 P8/L1 Clarify that this is a projection.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
15 P8/L7-24 Suggest offsetting the explanatory clause in the second sentence of the key message with commas: “Compounding and cascading hazards related to energy systems and additional stressors, such as cyberthreats and pandemics, create….”
16 P8/L33-34 Suggest cross-referencing the hydrogen box in Chapter 32 (Mitigation).
17 P9/L1-7 and 8-12 Suggest describing why some energy supply chains are more susceptible to supply chain disruptions. Suggest more clarity when discussing the critical mineral (CM) supply chain disruptions. Are the regions in the United States or other countries? What geopolitical and environmental factors influence how these materials are extracted, used, and recycled. This discussion omits the key points that the United States is reliant on processing facilities in other countries and at the same time is reliant on CMs to successfully transition to a net-zero economy. While the United States has lots of CM resources and can mine them, often the separations and processing facilities are not sited here due to environmental concerns, thus the United States is reliant on a more global supply chain to source the processed minerals, or the end-use products made with processed CMs. This might be a good place to mention both the Trump and Biden Executive Orders on critical minerals. This comment is also included in Key Message 32.4. So, if this ends up being covered there, suggest cross-referencing Chapter 32 (Mitigation) here.
18 P9/L20-30 Please clarify the connection to climate change.
19 P9/L31 It might be helpful to add to the discussion of vulnerable communities the impacts of transitioning to a different electricity profile and different energy generation sources to energy sector workers who will not be trained to work in different technologies and may resist the movement to low- and zero-carbon renewable energy.
20 P9/L31 It might be valuable to note that overburdened communities are likely to disproportionately benefit from decarbonization by way of reduced ground, water, and air pollution and potentially by the and increased resilience and addition of jobs from renewable energy.
21 P9/L32 If this sentence applies to climate impacts to energy systems, add that to the sentence: “Overburdened communities are disproportionately affected by climate impacts to energy systems.”
22 P11/L9ff This should start several steps earlier (i.e., “higher winter temperatures” lead to “insects survive winter” leads to “infestations damage and kill trees” leads to “increased tinder,” etc.).
23 P12/L1 The word “on” in the key message title seems out of place. Suggest “Progress continues toward enhancing” or “Progress continues to enhance” or suggest rewording the title.
24 P12/L15-17 Be careful with interchanging the words “mitigation” and “adaptation.” They are sometimes used interchangeably in this chapter and in this report and this will create confusion for general audiences. Here, it seems the activities for the oil industry are
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    adaptive to climate impacts to infrastructure, not mitigation efforts. Suggest removing “mitigation” from this paragraph altogether since it is discussing adaptation measures to boost resiliency of energy systems and infrastructure.
25 P12-13/L22-15 The two topics—planning for energy system resilience and hardening energy systems to reduce vulnerabilities to climate change—could be combined into one shorter section. Both discus modeling advances, for instance.
26 P14/L7 Suggest defining Internet of Things devices in the text. Or just use “smart devices, like internet connected appliances and cameras” or something similar.
27 P16/L10-13 Suggest explaining what types of costs for solar and wind decreased and why this was.
28 P17/L12-16 Suggest detailing where these demonstration projects are located to improve reader convertibility with the topics.
29 P17-18/L17-18 Suggest including a description of the IRA and new two-tiered tax credit scheme that emphasizes worker protections and vulnerable communities for developers and generators to qualify for the full amount of credit. Suggest including a discussion of energy-sector workers who are vulnerable to the energy transition changes to their livelihoods.
30 P20/L14-15 Expressing confidence that frequency and intensity of extreme events will increase seems to be a broader statement of confidence than generally accepted in the professional literature since it seems to encompass all types of extreme events and cover all locations in the United States (and presumably territories).

CHAPTER 6: LAND COVER AND LAND-USE CHANGE

# Page/Line Comment
1 P7/L12-13 Not all wildfires are climate driven; suggest making the sentence clear that in some places there is an increase in wildfire risk due to climate change.
2 P7/L18-19 These threats also come from land-use as well, so including other stressors in this discussion would add to the complexity but also highlight the risk to these systems.
3 P7/L20 Add something here on Great Lakes shore erosion.
4 P8/L23-24 Revise to make this a complete sentence.
5 P10/L7-8 This is not consistent with Chapter 7 (Forests)—the sink is created by growing stock and harvest products. It also contradicts the citation to Pugh et al. unless the CO2 effect on the regrowth areas is also attributed.
6 P10/L10-11 A significant land sink is not attributed to abandonment of agriculture. Domke et al. (2021) and EPA (2022) do not document this.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    Agriculture abandonment is a relatively small sink compared to forests remaining forests and urban areas.
7 P11/L32-33 Harvest and management reduce ecosystems resilience? Is this true as a general comprehensive statement? Some forest management will in fact be required such as assisted regeneration.
8 P12/L33-37 This is a confusing discussion and should be revised for clarity.
9 P13/L1-2 In other places it is the opposite; this is not a generalizable example.
10 P22/L27-28 There is substantial uncertainty in both biogeochemical and biophysical impacts of land-use and land cover change. This implies only the biophysical are uncertain, while the impacts on the carbon cycle end soils especially of different land-use management techniques is not well understood.

CHAPTER 7: FORESTS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L1 The introduction could set up the key messages more. Perhaps it would be nice to see some introductory synopsis of what the message is and how we know it with confidence.
2 P3/L5 The introduction lists the goods and services that forests provide, including “spiritual renewal” but does not mention the Indigenous cultural values of forests and this seems important to mention up front. These cultural values are, on the other hand, covered well under Key Message 7.2.
3 P4/L3-6 It would be interesting to see the frequency distribution of the map above (i.e., the distribution of number of years by region and nationally).
4 P5/L5-8 Should include a statement that these were driven by climate change factors not natural factors. Is the increase due to climate change and is that documented? There is no reference to Domke et al. (2022), nor is it readily found in the literature. Domke et al. (2021) is there. If this is reference to an update, it is very important and should be accurately referenced.
5 P5/L17 Could be better worded. See comments in Chapter 2.
6 P5/L18-19 This sentence is described in the introduction, not Key Message 7.1; is this the right place for this sentence? It is actually covered more in the text for Key Message 7.2; perhaps move there?
7 P5/L24-26 This statement should have an example.
8 P6/L6 An example is needed of “effects.”
9 P6/L11 Make sure readers know prescribed fire is intentional.
10 P6/L19-20 What is a national scale; does this mean consistently and widespread across the United States?
11 P6/L21-23 For example, cite Andela et al. (2017), which shows that globally fire burn area is going down, perhaps because of land management/use.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
12 P8/L11 This interpretation is incorrect: “western tree species are migrating poleward through seedling success (Sharma et al. 2021).” The paper said, “Whereas fecundity may be primed to lead tree migration in the West, local climate complexity that comes with rugged relief affects how migration potential should be interpreted. The combination of dry climates and fast climate change in the intermountain West explains fecundity and recruitment vectors in Fig. 3 E and F that point toward the cool, moist regional climates of the Northwest. However, for migration, these cool-moist conditions are locally found at higher elevations. The regional centroids average over this variation contributed by steep terrain.”
13 P13/L16 Domke et al. (2022) is not referenced, nor can it readily be found in the literature.
14 P14/L4-9 Sources should be specified. This figure needs to be reconciled with the national GHG inventory, EPA (2022) or EPA (2021). The sinks estimate here are not consistent with Domke et al. (2021) nor the national GHG inventory. The caption needs to better describe the figure. What is NEE and other acronyms? Explain that harvested wood product (HWP) “transfers” are a sink when the areas regrow, otherwise it is a sink that does not have emissions associated with it which is different. Is NEE from the regrowth? Or from new lands converted, or CO2 fertilization and productivity?
15 P14/L12 Change to “...are a critical component of the hydrological system and the provision of clean water.” We do not think “forests produce water” is the intended meaning.
16 P15/L1-3 State that this is an example of how climate change affects forest changes and in turn other impacts, in this case water flow and flooding.
17 P16/L24-25 Figure 7.10 does not show adaptation practices. It shows land ownership.
18 P21/L6-7 This statement needs a citation.
19 P22/L11-14 The reference to Sharma et al. may have been misstated. Check if it actually shows evidence of migration, or evidence to suggest migration.
21 P22/L15 See more literature on this (e.g., Novick et al. [2022]).

CHAPTER 8: ECOSYSTEMS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, AND BIODIVERSITY

# Page/Line Comment
1 P5/L1 It would be useful to emphasize in caption as well as text that “transforming into new systems” means “transforming into new, often degraded systems less able to provide ecosystem services.”
2 P5/L13 Clarify if the “delayed harvest of plants” in the Northern Great Plains means “delayed harvest of crops.” Also, explain the significance of
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    “loss of rivercane;” other biodiversity examples are more familiar or obvious ties to ecosystem services.
3 P7/L20 Consider including Ibanez et al. (2022) as another possible citation on multiple stressors.
4 P8/L8-10 Consider replacing words like “transformative” and “stable, which have a positive effect with “degraded” or “ecosystem collapse.”
5 P10/L9 Avoid the phrase “is complex” and replace it with a more specific statement. Ecologists often use this phrase when talking about ecosystems even though what is really meant is that there are surprises, or that there are direct and indirect effects of climate change that act together on ecosystem functions (e.g., pollinator webs, food webs).
6 P11/L8 The “Monitoring Transformations” subsection could, through minor rewording, more clearly convey that these monitoring networks (Figure 8.8) have been established in recent decades in direct response to global change. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) may have fully come online since NCA4. It is worth emphasizing this because otherwise it sounds as if ecologists have always monitored, when in fact this is a recent development.
7 P13/L14 This paragraph and associated Figure 8.9 are confusing because the figure exemplifies coral reef adaptation, but there is no mention in the text of corals. Instead, authors used Tetlin National Wildlife Refuge as an example, which is a great example, but it is not clear if they used the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. The Committee suggests doing some minor rewording to address this disconnect.
8 P14/L19 Avoid using the term “complex” and replace it with something more specific.
9 P17/L13 Change “Box 8.2” to “Box 8.1” (there is no Box 8.1).
10 P19/L1 Box 8.2 is a nice example, but a few more words about why large-bodied species are vulnerable to extinction and climate change would be useful—it is the second time body size has been mentioned.
11 P20/L1 Should “disease risk,” which focuses on diseases of animals and their vectors, also include plant disease (fungal and other plant pathogens) that affect natural ecosystems (e.g., Sudden Oak Death) and crops? A few possible references for discussing plant disease are Burdon and Zhan (2020) and Juroszek et al. (2020).
12 P20/L12 Table 8.1 is informative, but the Committee suggests adding a column identifying where this risk occurs in the United States.
13 P22/L7 The Committee appreciates that the statement about invasives that have declined in response to climate change is so well referenced but suggests adding a few examples into the text. The focus on the subsection is on invasives expanding due to climate change, so it is difficult to get a sense of the relative importance of these two groups.
14 P29/L16 Could emphasize not just “buy-in” from local already vulnerable communities, but solutions that are designed and led by those communities (i.e., “co-produced” with other actors).
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
15 P33/L27-32 The climate envelope models are used in nuanced ways to assess future climate change vulnerability. They predict habitat distribution and often use other environmental predictors in addition to climate (e.g., soil, topography, vegetation cover). There are procedures for incorporating dispersal rates (i.e., can organisms occupy shifting habitat), identifying and limiting confidence in predictions to novel environments, and focusing on habitat suitability changes within the current range (exposure). What this approach does not address is plasticity and adaptation.
16 P33/L35-37 It is not necessarily useful to think of range shifts as being driven by extreme weather events. Extreme events are likely to affect population processes via mortality and so forth, especially in combination with other global change stressors. Other modeling approaches are needed to forecast ecological changes on the order of decades, and those frameworks are being used.
17 General An additional reference, Warren et al. (2018), could be added on range shifts (global).
18 General The following papers on natural climate solutions could be good additional references: Griscom et al. (2017), Law et al. (2021, 2022), and Novick et al. (2022).

CHAPTER 9: COASTAL EFFECTS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/L2-4 This opening statement conflates regional and global mean change, as well as absolute and relative sea-level in confusing ways. (1) Stating that sea levels are rising and accelerating globally gives the impression that this is true everywhere, but it is not. There are many locations where relative sea-level rise in the United States is falling (e.g., some locations in Alaska) and/or not accelerating (e.g., most of the US west coast). It would be more accurate to say, “Global average sea-level is rising and accelerating due to thermal expansion….” (2) The inclusion of vertical land motion here is tricky because it is the only reference to relative sea-level in this statement. It does not represent variations in the thermal expansion and addition of water mass that are referenced in the first part of the statement. It is also a highly local (not regional) effect. It would be best to edit the second part of this opening sentence to be more specific about where the named variations occur, such as “…with variations occurring along local and regional coastlines due to….”
2 P4/L5 “Accelerating, rising” is awkward phrasing.
3 P4/L6-7 Authors should choose between feet in figure and inches in text. Reading and interpreting the text will be easier if the same units used in the text are also used in the figures.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
4 P4/L10 The phrase “on average 3-7 days per year” is too vague. Is this 3-7 days in at least one location across the whole country? Or 3-7 days at every location across the country? If the latter, it is unclear how this is a useful statistic given the huge amount of spread between locations around the United States.
5 P4/L17 Missing dash in range of SLR in meters provided in the parenthetical.
6 P4/L28-29 Suggest the reference to Figure 9.2 be moved to the previous sentence, which is what the figure shows. The figure does not pertain to differences across emissions scenarios, which is what the sentence describes.
7 P4/L28-29 Include the emissions scenario the numbers in the paragraph are based on.
8 P5/L5-9 Including the idea that coastal landscapes evolve across a range of timescales due a range of climate-driven and natural phenomena is great. It would be good to provide similar context for the previous section on SLR and high tide flooding, stating that sea-level (e.g., ENSO) and tides (e.g., nodal cycle, harbor dredging) also evolve on a range of time scales due to a range of natural and climate-driven reasons.
9 P19/L26-30 A major source of uncertainty prior to 2050 is the impact of natural climate variability on the projections.
10 P20/L28-37 This paragraph needs references.

CHAPTER 10: OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L2 Suggest beginning the sentence with the subject of the chapter, i.e., “Oceans span tropical, temperature, and polar regions; support diverse and productive marine ecosystems; and provide innumerable benefits to the US.”
2 P3/L2-9 Defining and making clear that NCA5 assesses a huge region of the United States, not just the continental US, is well done here, but a simple reference to Figure 10.1 would emphasize this point.
3 P4/L8 Specify higher emissions scenarios.
4 P4/L1-11 Key Message 10.1: there are no likelihood statements provided. However, these statements may have quantitative evidence to support them, and if so, should include likelihood statements (this is also true for Key Message 10.2 and Key Message 10.3).
5 P5/L28-29 Consider adding ENSO events to the list of impactful extreme events for marine ecosystems. The last one was devastating to coral reefs throughout the Pacific.
6 P6/L1-6 Overall Figure 10.1 is a good figure, but please expand the figure caption to explain all the symbols and where the information comes from.
7 P6/L13 Suggest specifying very high emissions scenario.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
8 P7/L6-8 This is an important point that could be elevated to part of the key message.
9 P7/L9 Suggest making a referenced statement somewhere in this box stating whether the severity and/or frequency of such marine heat waves is expected to increase with ongoing and future climate change.
10 P8/L1-7 Figures 10.2, 10.4, and 10.5: the figure captions should contain all the information to explain the figure as well as the citations so that the figure is self-contained.
11 P10/L17 Specify emissions scenarios.
12 P12/L10 Suggest either using a less technical term than “extirpation” or defining the term in the text.
13 P13/L4-13 Consider mentioning wave energy conversion, a nascent technology, which may be particularly useful for the west coast, Hawai‘i, and USAPI, even though it is mentioned on page 10-15, line 15.
14 P15/L4-6 Here is a good place to highlight the need for continued investment and expansion of the National Ocean Observing System.
15 P18/L13-14 The Front Matter rubric emphasizes evidence and publications, not data. It would be more accurate to remove “data” from the statement here.
16 P18/L23-32 Indigenous island communities are highly impacted by ocean change (see Chapters 23 and 30) and should be highlighted here.

CHAPTER 11: AGRICULTURE, FOOD SYSTEMS, AND RURAL COMMUNITIES

# Page/Line Comment
    None

CHAPTER 12: BUILT ENVIORNMENT, URBAN SYSTEMS, AND CITIES

# Page/Line Comment
1 P1/L1 Ensure chapter title is consistent with built environment definition, and if not revise the title.
2 P3/L2 Recommend stronger first sentence.
3 P3/L3 Use of urban residents’ livelihoods automatically sends a tone that this chapter is only about the urban built environment. Is that what the authors intended?
4 P3/L7 Recommend stronger first sentence, such as “recent science shows how climate change is having cascading and compounding effects on the built environment.”
5 P3/L12 Suggest cross-referencing Chapters 5 (Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand), 13 (Transportation), and 18 (Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems).
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
6 P3/L14 Suggest changing “historically disadvantaged communities” to a term consistent with other chapters. Other terminology suggestions include overburdened, highly impacted, or historically underinvested.
7 P3/L23-25 Recommend stronger first sentence that is more accessible.
8 P3/L29 Suggest changing “historically disadvantaged communities” to a term consistent with other chapters. Other terminology suggestions include overburdened, highly impacted, or historically underinvested.
9 P3/L36-37 Suggest increasing readability for broader audiences.
10 P4/L3 Largest 10 cities plus the top 5 percent of suburbs: consider having Figure 12.1 actually show those 10 cities and the suburbs with labels using data from 2018 rather than the map shown (2015).
11 P4/L16-18 Opportunity to increase readability for broader audiences.
12 P5/L1 Figure 12.2: Suggest explaining and contextualizing the importance of the data shown. It is also difficult to tell if there are clear differences in the maps that are visible with the maps being that small. It appears that there is a mall change to states like Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Perhaps focusing on areas that are predicted to have the greatest change would be more meaningful.
13 P5/L13 Appreciate the reference to Chapter 6 (Land Cover and Land-Use Change) but consider also including the title of the chapters when being referenced. This is consistent with cross-referencing done in other chapters.
14 P8/L9 Suggest adding something like: “If mitigation and adaptation measures are not deployed quickly and sufficiently then urban areas will continue to be significant drivers of climate change....”
15 P8/L17 Suggest modifying Key Message 12.2 title to be a statement.
16 P8/L19 Suggest replacing “existing loads” with more accessible language.
17 P8/L22 Suggest replacing “infrastructure deficits” with more accessible language.
18 P9/L6 “Linking extreme events to climate change is critical for assessing, disclosing, and managing risk to urban systems.” is an important point that is just left hanging at the end of this paragraph. Suggest incorporating it into the introduction or key message and expanding on why it is important for the built environment.
19 P10/L15 Suggest referencing health impacts broadly instead of using “diseases such as asthma.”
20 P11/L12 Suggest adding a specific example about the disproportionate burden on populations. For instance, Houston’s urban heat island mapping showed a 17-degree difference between two neighborhoods on the same time and same day.
21 P12/L7 Consider including this point in the introduction or at the beginning of this key message.
22 P12/L14 While this section talks about the reduced “life expectancy of heating, air-conditioning, ventilation, and filtration systems as well as
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    road pavements and tarmac surfaces,” it does not mention the impact of people, especially overburdened and vulnerable people.
23 P12/L18 Another use of “loading” that should be clarified for broader audiences.
24 P12/L28 Perhaps an opportunity to highlight some of what is being done, such as LEED for Cities, and updates to building and zoning codes.
25 P12/L29 Very general statement. Which systems? Perhaps an opportunity to link to other chapters.
26 P12/L32 Caution how “local beliefs about climate change” is being used; perhaps local action or inaction (based on beliefs) would be another way to phrase this statement.
27 P12/L34 Perhaps provide one or more examples for how to increase awareness, or better yet, action, and provide an example of what has worked.
28 P12/L38 Suggest using more accessible language.
29 P13/L4 Add “climate” before “risks.”
30 P14/L1 Suggest using a more informative statement for the key message title, such as: “Climate Action Opportunities for Cities.”
31 P14/L11 Confirm the 2014 reference is needed; has this system been updated in the last 8 years? It appears to be a dated reference.
32 P14/L14 Consider referencing BRIC in this section.
33 P14/L16 Suggest providing a quantitative percentage of plans that did not explicitly address climate risks. If this information is not clear, consider rewording.
34 P14/L18 Suggest adding “and for climate adaptation and resilience.” This statement is incomplete without this additional information as this section is covering both mitigation and adaptation.
35 P15/L2 Suggest defining/describing what a co-benefit is here.
36 P16/L11 “Nature based solutions” and “green infrastructure” are both mentioned here, and Figure 12.2 references “natural infrastructure.” Suggest using consistent (and the most common) language.
37 P17/L6 Replace “struggle” with “seek.”
38 P17/L13 Tribal communities or tribal nations?
39 P17/L17 Capitalize Chief Resilience Officers and note that some states have appointed Chief Resilience Officers.
40 P17/L18 Capitalize Chief Heat Officers and include Chief Sustainability Officers here too.
41 P18/L3 Clarify if the communities referenced here are “rural.”
42 P18/L7 Clarify if taxes are declining or is revenue declining.
43 P18/L12 Give examples of states that are exceptions.
44 P18/L13 Which cities? This chapter should have more specific examples and less generalities.
45 P18/L15 Is it capacity, or ability, due to constraints including capacity?
46 P18/L29 Suggest changing the first sentence to read, “Local urban planning efforts incorporating climate actions show varying progress….”
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
47 P18/L37 Provide examples of what is working.
48 P19/L3 Consider reworking this paragraph for readability.
49 P20/L3 Consider “residents’” interests instead of “citizens’.”
50 P22/L2 Consider explaining why cities are underreporting GHG emissions.
51 P27/L5 Consider resident support instead of citizen support.

CHAPTER 13: TRANSPORTATION

# Page/Line Comment
1 P1/L2-5 Text can be added to define mobility in addition to the current language on the transportation network.
2 P1/L11-14 Text can be added on planning for future transport needs for people.
3 P1/L16-19 An opportunity to add text on emerging mobility options.
4 P3/L14 Are risk assessment and long-term costs the key to equitable investments? Lines 20-21 provide concrete suggestions: “Inclusive decision making and data-informed processes.”
5 P3/L24 Replace “remains” with “is.” Not long ago (2016), the power sector was the largest sector.5
6 P3/L25 Perhaps replace “industry” with “sector.”
7 P3/L32 Limiting global warming requires a path toward “achieving net-zero.”
8 P4/L10 Remove the White House citation.
9 P6/L4-6 Remove, “Cells with few or no bullets…” and complete a more comprehensive literature review.
10 P6/L1-6 Table 13.1 caption uses term “bullets” in line 5. However, the table does not include bullets.
11 P8/L5 Spell out “DOT” acronym since this is its first use.
12 P9/L9 Perhaps replace “greater” with “increasing” or quantify what it is greater than.
13 P10/L13-14 Perhaps replace the first “expected” since the sentence currently reads as “expected to perform well beyond expected.”
14 P13/L3 For most scientists, “significantly” would imply some test and confidence. Replace with a less loaded word.
15 P15/L1-6 This paragraph, which continues from the previous page, lacks citations.
16 P15/L27-28 Mention “non-combustion electricity generation.” It would be helpful to have a sentence devoted to the implications of fuel cell technology for transport.
17 P19/L18 This is the only time “rural” was mentioned in the entire chapter.
18 P19/L23 Spell out “TSU” acronym since this is its first use.
19 P19/L34 Replace “…from other authors” to “…from other chapters.”
20 P21/L32-36 Replace semicolons with commas or break up the sentence.

___________________

5 See https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10802.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×

CHAPTER 14: AIR QUALITY

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L35-36 Give examples of human-caused emissions.
2 P4/L25 Remove the period in “warming (KM 14.5)., is….”
3 P5/L4 Remove the underscore in “concentrations in the Northeast_.”
4 P5/L8-11 The caption for Figure 14.1 needs to be self-contained, and have citations.
5 P6/L1-2 Font size of figure title changes.
6 P6/L4-5 The figure captions should describe everything in the figure and explain all the acronyms. It looks quite busy: consider converting this to a mean and a range for each color instead?
7 P7/L34 Remove “and” in “problems, and worse outcomes for birth....”
8 P8/L5-6 Climate change could increase the odds of wildfires, although land conversion is likely to decrease the land available for wildfires, so it may not be so certain that activity will increase. Perhaps modify to “…the chance of wildfires in many regions will increase.”
9 P9/L3-5 Figure 14.3 caption should describe what is being shown: are these model- or observation-based? The grey versus the colored dots? Figure captions should be self-contained.
10 P18/L15-22 Figure 14.10 is not very clear and seems unnecessarily busy. Perhaps just showing the range of values would be clearer.
11 P18/L19 Spelling error in “…(in 2020 US collars).”
12 P23/L21-34 This paragraph is missing citations: please include appropriate citations. Additionally, there was no previous citation to the epidemiology and toxicology studies that are referenced again here.
13 P26/L34 Add period between “change Conclusions.”

CHAPTER 15: HUMAN HEALTH

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L16-18 This key message needs a confidence rating after the first sentence.
2 P4/L10 Suggest using a dash instead of a comma.
3 P5/L1-4 These two sentences could benefit from more specific details or examples. Is the second sentence referring to just the west or the entire Unites States?
4 P5/L7-9 Suggest linking wildfire smoke to air quality first then associating it with impacts, and suggest defining cardiovascular-, cerebrovascular-, and respiratory-related health issues in line or providing examples of each.
5 P5/L16 Clarify if increased rabies exposure referring to human exposure or animal exposure. If not to humans, please clarify the link to increased animal exposure to rabies and human risk as the tick-borne disease section does in line 36 on the same page.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
6 P5/L25 Suggest defining “vector.”
7 P6/L12 Suggest making the key the same color code as the images on the map.
8 P6/L19-20 This section is about both food and water; therefore, the first sentence should include water as well. Suggested text: “Climate change negatively impacts food security, nutrition, water security, and water quality, which harms health, particularly for communities.”
9 P7/L23 Is the word “relatives” intended to be a different word? Otherwise, consider clarifying the meaning of “fauna relatives.”
10 P7/L27 This sentence is missing a citation.
11 P8/L13 If possible, provide a more recent reference for this sentence.
12 P10/L3-4 The first sentence in the key message needs a confidence rating.
13 P10/L17 “BIPOC” and “low-wealth communities” may be fine words here, but the language to define specific vulnerable populations should be consistent across chapters in the report. As the language is now, many chapters use different terms to define similar populations. Suggest conformity and consistency across chapters.
14 P10/L25-27 Suggest listing the six climate-related hazards in the caption of Figure 15.4.
15 P11/L29-33 Suggest referencing Chapter 16 (Tribes and Indigenous Peoples) for these two sentences.
16 P11/L30-31 It is not necessarily clear what “on the frontlines of climate change” means. Suggest defining in-line.
17 P12/L13 Suggest defining “redlining” inline and given that this term is used throughout the report it may also be included in a glossary.
18 P12/L17-21 Consider explaining why Black and Latinx communities are more likely to live in areas with high air-pollution levels.
19 P12/L24-27 Does the use of “women” here refer to all women? Additionally, clarify what populations women are being compared to when stating that they are more likely to live in poverty.
20 P13/L14 Describe why or how the discriminatory beliefs impact care.
21 P13/L15-25 In the Figure 15.5 caption, specify what the underlying socioeconomic and demographic factors are. What does the sentence about a seemingly decreasing trend mean? Instead of “That would explain…” specify what “that” is. The first four sentences in this caption are unclear and unspecific.
22 P14/L6 Suggest a different word than “mainstream.” Consider also revising these sentences to have consistent tenses and reduce wordiness; they are confusing as written. A possible rewording could be “Proactive and continuous risk-management is critical to human health and well-being, particularly to protect at risk groups and health care facilities. Integrated approaches emphasize health in policies for food, infrastructure, water, and sanitation.”
23 P15/L2 Suggest clarifying why is there a growing “at risk” population and who this population includes.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
24 P15/L1-31 This section is missing the climate connection; audiences need that connection to be made overtly.
25 P15/L32-37 This section is missing the climate connection; audiences need that connection to be made overtly.
26 P16/L3-12 This section is missing the climate connection; audiences need that connection to be made overtly.
27 P17/L13-24 This section is missing the climate connection; audiences need that connection to be made overtly.

CHAPTER 16: TRIBES AND INDIGENOUS PEOPLES

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L1-12 The introduction would benefit from more text before the images that take up almost two full pages.
2 P4/L12 Suggest ending the current sentence with a connection to Figure 16.3: “…strategies for adaptation to those changes which includes a holistic worldview.”
3 P6/L3 Suggest “legal systems” rather than “legal environments.”
4 P6/L23 Add the word “climate” in to replace “the” so that it reads “for the heightened severity of climate disruption.”
5 P6/L25 Omit the word “their.”
6 P7/L8-9 Suggest reordering to reflect the order of the key message as written and add energy if kept in this key message.
7 P8/L4 Remove the period between “barriers” and “(Figure 16.4.”
8 P9/L1-23 This section on COIVD-19 should reference the Focus on COVID-19 and Climate Change. If looking for an area to slim down, this paragraph is quite long and could be shortened.
9 P10/L8-11 This holding did not occur in a vacuum; it is based on the evolving US tribal law and policy (here assimilation) from the 18th to the 20th century that influenced tribal actions. Suggest clarifying this in text to reflect this distinction: “Due to the evolution of colonial policies and US tribal law from the 18th century to present day, and the influence those laws and policies had on Indigenous actions, some Indigenous peoples face intricate land-based jurisdictional circumstances today that prevent recovery of their historically occupied territory. For example, the US Supreme Court’s holding in Carcieri v. Salazar (2009) prohibited contemporary land restoration for certain Indigenous peoples that historically acted on colonialist laws and policies.”
10 P10/L11-12 Please add transition sentence between first paragraph to the second paragraph under “relocation.”
11 P10/L25 Do these opportunities (a range of options) currently exist or is the use of the word “opportunities” to imply a change or possibility for progress? The options or changes could be explained in more detail.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
12 P13/L5-8 This sentence would benefit from an explanation why funding is not often distributed in “ways” (typo, not “was”) that Indigenous peoples can access.
13 P13/L15-16 Suggest providing examples of coordinated infrastructure projects that mutually support one another.
14 P13/L16 Please correct to be “Indigenous peoples’.”
15 P14/L19 “Knowledge” can be both singular and plural: suggest removing the “s” from “knowledges.”
16 P15/L3 The term “peoples” is more commonly used than “persons.”
17 P15/L15 Please correct to be “Bureau of Indian Affairs’.”
18 P16/L26 Suggest adding the research term, “land-based healing incitive” (Johnson-Jennings et al., 2020; Redvers, 2020).
19 P20/L28-38 This is a great overview and could possibly be summarized or placed into introduction of chapter.

CHAPTER 17: CLIMATE EFFECTS ON US INTERNATIONAL INTERESTS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L6-9 The final sentence of the first paragraph of the introduction is policy prescriptive and should be reworded slightly.
2 P3/L16-17 The final sentence is too vague to be meaningful and should be revised.
3 P3/L16-25 Suggest removing this paragraph as it does not seem relevant to the chapter topic.
4 P4/L22-24 Last sentence of Key Message 17.1 is policy prescriptive and should be reworded slightly.
5 P6/L3 In Figure 17.1, the bullet “Climate resilience” under the heading “Climate resilience” is redundant and should be removed.
6 P12/L10-11 The projection reported in the sentence is not present in the referenced source.
7 P12/L25-26 Rising sea levels should not be listed as “less well quantified.” Sea-level rise is well observed and quantified.
8 P12/L26-27 Increasing average temperatures are not the concern. Global average warming is a useful indicator of climate change, but the impacts to health and agriculture will be regionally specific due to shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation.
9 P16/L2 The discussion suffers with combining observations and projections in one sentence (e.g., poverty rates).
10 P21/L21 Suggest using a different word than “significant,” as it is an undefined term.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×

CHAPTER 18: SECTOR INTERACTIONS, MULTIPLE STRESSORS, AND COMPLEX SYSTEMS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P6/L18-22 Is this an example of polarization or systematic discrimination?
2 P6/L25-28 Not clear what this has to do with complex systems.
3 P13/L4-16 Paragraph has no citations.
4 P13/L11-16 Sentence filled with jargon.
5 P13/L19-26 Does the deep uncertainty to the complexity of the systems or the scenarios?
6 P14/L6-8 Sentence is true but can price signals exacerbate unequal impacts?
7 P16-17/L26-10 Traceable account for Key Message 18.1: The Committee questions the ranking of high confidence in this emerging field. Many of the findings are based on one study, Reed et al. (2022), which is not consistent with the definition of high confidence provided in the Front Matter.

CHAPTER 19: ECONOMICS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/L3 Lipton et al. (2018) is about migraines. From the title of the publication, it is not clear it has anything to do with climate change.
2 P4/L16 The literature is filled with studies on the economic impact of climate change on agriculture and only one citation is given here. Does the new work on agriculture completely negate older studies (e.g., Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994)?
3 P6/Table 19.2 “Student Learning” row: The Park et al. study finds that the adverse impact can be offset by use of air conditioning.
4 P9/Figure 19.1 The figure is hard to read and might be easier to read if it is displayed in a landscape format.
5 P18/L27-28 The literature on climate change and violence is thin and needs a lot more analysis to establish a reasonable level of confidence.
6 P18/L24-27 Judicial decisions, political turnover, etc. seems to be somewhat speculative.
7 P21/L11-33 Consider including uncertainties about societal changes (e.g., population, income, and technology).
8 P24/L3-17 Consider including adaptation.

CHAPTER 20: SOCIAL SYSTEMS AND JUSTICE

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/Figure 20.1 Consider clarifying the purpose of this figure. Is the purpose to introduce three dimensions of justice for assessment analysis?
2 P8/L15 Add a period after “2017)….”
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
3 P9/Figure 20.2 This figure does not provide essential information and could be described in one to three sentences.
4 P10/L8 Remove the period between “society. (Oreskes….”
5 P13/Figure 20.3 If this figure intends to demonstrate that social systems influence migration and that climate change may exacerbate but that planned relocation could increase just outcomes, the message is not well understood through this Bronfenbrenner ecological framework and more recent frameworks have been presented in the literature.
6 P14/L11 Add a period after “…2022).”
7 P14/L22 Use lowercase “h” in “Hired.”
8 P15/L17 Remove “a” in the “right to a fair….”
9 P15/L19 Add a comma between “oil gas.”
10 P17/L18 Suggest “Indigenous knowledge” instead of “Indigenous knowledges.”
11 P18/L11 Replace “such” with “human.”
12 P21/L30 Italicize “high confidence” for consistency.
13 P23/L31 Add “a” between “identify [a] research gap” and remove “research.”
14 P26/L8-9 Add “is” between “Much of that literature [is] also based….”

CHAPTER 21: NORTHEAST

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/L18 Suggest using more recent projections if possible, and the statement could benefit from some people-focused context
2 P4/L27 Suggest expanding this discussion. The Northeast is heating faster than most regions of North America and extreme heat events cause more deaths each year than all other extreme weather events combined. This should be reflected in a more balanced summary of extreme precipitation and extreme heat impacts.
3 P4/L31 Social impacts are suggested but there is little mention of social impacts afterward.
4 P4/L34 Suggest using the term “hurricane” instead use of “cyclone,” based on the NOAA definition: “Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones are actually all the same type of storm, but have different names based on where they form. In the North Atlantic and central and eastern North Pacific, these storms are called “hurricanes.” In the western North Pacific, they are called “typhoons” and in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, they are called “cyclones.”6
5 P4/L36 Suggest “projected” rather than “expected.” This is a numerical projection and is probably based on a specific scenario which should be mentioned in the text.

___________________

6 Tropical cyclones are rare in the South Atlantic: https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
6 P5/L1 Increased nighttime temperatures also have significant implications for public health.
7 P5/L11 “Pluvial” should be defined parenthetically as “fluvial” is in line 18.
8 P5/L16-17 Needs a reference.
9 P6/L27-39 The paragraph is not specific to the Northeast region.
10 P6/L30 Cite Chapters 14 (Air Quality) and 15 (Human Health).
11 P8/L12 Suggest using “climate change” rather than “warming” because the sentence includes discussion of acidification.
12 P12/L30-38 The discussion of oxygen loss lacks explanation for general audiences and introduces related concepts (added nutrient load) without showing the connection.
13 P14/L14 The term “mitigation” is used in the context of adaptation as mitigation of impacts.
14 P14/L38 Based on racial discrimination is an important omission. Redlining is an important example of structural racism that has many present-day ramifications that have increased vulnerability to climate impacts.
15 P15/L6-17 Suggest noting implications for morbidity/mortality as well.
16 P16/L10-13 These lines present an opportunity to identify connections between important equity-related issues (e.g., air quality, urban areas, redlining, environmental justice).
17 P16/L13 “Reasons for the regional differences are unclear.” Please see literature on redlining and urban heat islands as well as air quality and environmental justice literature.
18 P16/L18 Perhaps “genital and urinary” rather than “genitourinary.”
19 P16/L23-33 Important to integrate the idea of a just transition here with broad implications not only for energy insecure populations but also for impacts to fossil fuel-dependent livelihoods and communities particularly in West Virginia.
20 P17/L22-23 Suggest adding “structural, political, and socioeconomic.”
21 P17/L33 Suggest adding “and burdens” so the sentence reads “…benefits and burdens….”
22 P18/L17-20 The sentence could be interpreted as being policy prescriptive. Alternative wording could be “In response to the announcement of intended withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 (the withdrawal had to wait 3 years), states, municipalities, tribes, and businesses....”
23 P26/L5 Suggest adding “households” to communities and businesses (there are a number of state-level incentives for household-level mitigation).
24 P27/L3 Suggest giving context on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood map underestimation of risk.
25 P28-29/L26-19 Lack of well-defined metrics is another important obstacle for private-sector investment.
26 P29/L14 Cites “USA facts 2021” as the only source for the paragraph.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
27 P32/L5-7 The discussion on research gaps regarding Key Message 21.2 mentions “multiple sources, especially farmers…” regarding droughts and high moisture. This appears to be introducing new evidence and is not cited. Recommend moving this to the text on Key Message 21.2.
28 P34/L6-14 An additional question is whether jurisdictions will be able to overcome non-financial barriers to adaptation (since finance is covered in Key Message 21.5).

CHAPTER 22: SOUTHEAST

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L2 The word “eons” is too technical. Consider rephrasing.
2 P3/L8 The word “animus” is too technical. Consider rephrasing.
3 P3/L11 The word “chattel” is too technical. Consider rephrasing.
4 P4/L12 Suggest including research on Ida or any of the major storms more recent than Katrina.
5 P9/L25 Please specify what “the region” represents.
6 P11/L9 Suggest also including North Carolina (Cherokee).
7 P11/L26-27 Change to present tense.

CHAPTER 23: US CARRIBEAN

# Page/Line Comment
    None

CHAPTER 24: MIDWEST

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L26 Wording choice. Once something is “built” it is “aging.” Perhaps cite the median age of infrastructure here?
2 P4/L16 There is no likelihood statement.
3 P4/L23 Annually may be used incorrectly. Suggest clarifying by stating that “annual precipitation has increased,” not that “it increased annually.”
4 P5/L3-7 It is not clear that the left panel is properly explained and related to the others.
5 P8/L18 Please change to “crop insurance losses continue.”
6 P10/L8, 11 There is no likelihood statement.
7 P15/L9 There is no likelihood statement.
8 P15/L32-33 This sentence leaves the reader wondering why this difference.
9 P16/L18-19 Suggest clarifying this logic. Certainly, other regions have higher population.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
10 P19/L3-5 This diagram shows the annual values, from which one can infer the change. Suggest removing first two words.
11 P20/L15-19 This sentence (“Sufficient...”) borders on tautology. Perhaps “more” are needed but that begs the question how much more. Perhaps the chapter authors can be more specific here. Twice as many? Or perhaps the sentence can say that Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests a model of how increases in resources correlates with improved outcomes.
12 P20/L29 There is no likelihood statement.
13 P20/L30 This fails to mention the electric grid, one of three sectors mentioned in the key message first sentence.
14 P20/L32 “…are in need of repair.” Can this be quantified? What fraction? What dollar value? Or provide some other sense of the magnitude of the problem.
15 P21/L3 “Recent grades” assumes the reader knows what is being graded; please rephrase.
16 P21/L19 “...high (A1B) and very high (A2)” The chapter authors should consider how to mix Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and later scenario generations, so the reader does not get confused or overwhelmed.
17 P23/L14 Does this imply that a return period of 1 year signifies an extreme event? Also, given the non-stationarity, should chapter authors not be encouraging the use of exceedance probability language?
18 P25/L31-34 This suggests an interesting challenge. Is there any assertion that this small percent increase poses a problem? Is the annual value really the most helpful one to cite?
19 P27/L19 Is the type of aquifer the most important information about the groundwater system to convey? Perhaps the status of the groundwater system would be more pertinent in this report. Given the topics discussed in the text, a map of what percent of water resources comes from groundwater may be more pertinent. Also use only or mark the Midwest boundaries.
20 P28/L24 “Precipitation is expected to increase…” on the order of 1 percent according to the key message.
21 P29/L8 Suggest citing literature that demonstrates change versus variability.
22 P30/L7 Change “impact of” to “impact on.”

CHAPTER 25: NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/L1-3 Suggest defining the region; which states are included? Add some context for the region.
2 P4/L2-3 The sentence could be written about any region.
3 P4/L7-8 Suggest splitting this sentence into two sentences.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
4 P4/L26-27 A region diversifying could be a lot of different things—for example, economic diversification; suggest “experiencing population diversification” or “becoming more culturally diverse.”
5 P5/L14-15 “Challenges” is used twice in this sentence; suggest using “changes” the second time the word is used.
6 P6/L15-16 This language (days then nights in parentheticals) is confusing; suggest clarifying in text.
7 P6/L17-19 Suggest clarity in language by inserting introductory sentence: “The region has experienced less very cold days (defined as a maximum temperature of 0°F or lower) than the historic average (defined as …) for the past few decades. For instance, there have been less very cold days than the long-term average in Montana since 1985, in....”
8 P6/L22-26 Insert “resources” after “on groundwater.” Suggest describing whether this is in the whole Northern Great Plains (NGP) region or just some states? Suggest citation of Siirila-Woodburn et al. (2021).
9 P9/L15 Suggest mentioning the states that are headwater states for the Colorado River basin.
10 P12/L18-24 Spiritual health is mentioned in the key message language and not in the supporting text. Please incorporate spiritual health into supporting text or remove from key message language.
11 P12/L26-27 Rephrase with active voice to remove passive voice: “Literature recognizes a spectrum of….”
12 P12/L31 Note that the Burke and Yazd studies are about national mental health risks, not specifically about the NGP. This is not the only place in the chapter where national studies are cited to for a statement about the NGP region. Please ensure that citations to literature discussing national trends are represented that way in the supporting text.
13 P13/L18-19 Is there any more recent literature on West Nile virus or vector-borne diseases in the region than 2014? Check Chapter 15 (Human Health).
14 P14/L5-8 Suggest defining nutrient load to incorporate the volume of the nutrient, passing through a single location, over a set period of time rather than just the volume. Is there more recent literature on this than 2014-2015?
15 P15/L4-23 Suggest renaming “loss of biodiversity” to “compound biodiversity impacts of climate events” to mirror earlier section discussing “compound health impacts of climate events.”
16 P18/L11-20 This section (three paragraphs) is unclear. The example is Texas, but then discusses outages in the NGP region. Were there power outages in NGP states due to Texas strains on the grid? Suggest revising to improve clarity and indicate the relationship to NGP region. Move last sentence up. Use active voice where possible. A rewrite could be something like this: “Climate change impacts and mitigation efforts are expected to increase energy demand across North America. Higher summer temperatures and heatwaves are expected to increase energy demand across the country, while higher winter temperatures
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    and fewer cold snaps are expected to reduce energy demand for heating in the Northern Great Plains. Increased energy demands from outside the Northern Great Plains will place demands on regional energy resources and electricity supply. Climate change will also stress energy infrastructure (e.g., rail, pipelines, distribution lines, transmission lines). Energy infrastructure is vulnerable to climate extremes. For instance, the power outages that resulted from the 2021 extreme cold event in Texas illustrate the importance and connection between demand, supply, and distribution across the US during extreme weather events.”
17 P18/L21-37 Add in transition phrases and sentences; this section reads rather choppy. Discuss the expected impacts of energy-sector changes to energy-sector jobs.
18 P20/L19 Offset “and exacerbating existing” with commas.
19 P20/L27 Rather than contextualize this as “renewable and nonrenewable” suggest “shifts in energy demand, production, and policy will change land-use needs for low and zero carbon energy infrastructure and development” to improve consistency with other chapters in the report (Chapters 5 [Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand] and 32 [Mitigation]).
20 P21/L11 Since there is some discussion on mitigation, the section heading should be changed to state that it covers barriers to mitigation and adaptation.
21 P21/L15-16 It is not accurate to say this region discourages a transition and economic diversification. It is accurate to say there is resistance to turning completely away from fossil resources entirely. Suggest citation of Righetti et al. (2021).
22 P21/L18-19 This paper cited does not discuss water regulations and rights and this is not accurate without more clarification. What water regulations and rights are the chapter authors referring to here? Please clarify.
23 P22/L4-11 Integrate with energy discussions in Chapters 5 (Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand) and 32 (Mitigation). This chapter could be from a different report with only categorization of “renewables” versus “non-renewables” and that categorization oversimplifies the issues. See discussion of other low- and zero-carbon technologies in other chapters: Chapter 32 (Key Message 32.4); labor section on page 29 (Key Message 32.2); Low-carbon fuels needed for some transport and industry applications; and Chapter 5 page 5-17. Nuclear, innovated low-, negative-, and zero-carbon solutions, increased production of low-carbon electricity including nuclear as well as fossil fuel electricity with CCUS.
24 P23/L10 This section omits discussion about the transition period between now and when the nation can be more fully reliant on renewables. The IRA reflects this with funding mechanisms for industry and commercial build out. Suggest more inclusive discussion of this
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    transition period and the IRA support for many different types of energy development to better align with other chapters in the report (see comment above).
25 P23/L19-21 Nuclear also requires significant water for cooling; hydrogen does as well for production. Biofuels do use significant water for irrigation and for cooling if burned for electricity. Water use within a state is controlled by state law; water use for water that crosses state lines will be impacted by various federal and state legal mechanisms and can be quite complex.
26 P23/L25-26 Clarify if the planting of low-input tall grasses is already happening or should happen.
27 P23/L34-35 Drawbacks are not considered here. Depending on how used, e.g., if biofuels are burned for electricity production, a significant amount of water is still needed for cooling, just like fossils.
28 P24/L2 Please add the state the prairie pothole region is in.
29 P28/L16-28 Without a definition, the term “prior appropriation” is not likely to be well understood by broad audiences. Prior appropriation affords a right to use (not own) water. Put in simplified terms, the first person to put water to a beneficial use has the right to continue to use that water and if their use does not continue, neither does the water right. Most western states have codified the prior appropriation doctrine into statutes that define beneficial use, prioritize certain uses, and administer water rights through a permitting system that specifies administrative and or court processes necessary to modify water rights. In line 18, it would be more accurate to say the “ability to acquire water rights” rather than the “reallocation” because, legally, the water right would need to be sold or abandoned or enlarged, which all have different impacts on priority. When discussing water rights under the Colorado River Compact (CRC) then allocation is the correct word, but the CRC is not discussed until the next sentence. The phrase “turning water users off” in line 28 is not accurate, though it is “puny.” Suggest removing first half of sentence. Start sentence with “Different approaches....”
30 P28/L32-34 Please provide some examples of drought planning and improving ranch resilience.
31 P29/L8-9 The sentence reads as being policy prescriptive but can be easily revised to be policy informative, for example, “In response to flooding, improved monitoring was instituted….”
32 P30/L33-36 This sentence should mention public lands.
33 P32/L12 With the image above, it is hard to tell what “this work” is referencing—the image in Figure 25.10 or the previous text? Citing to the figure and moving the image to after all of the text in this section might make more sense.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×

CHAPTER 26: SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P6/L11-13 Is this estimate for the whole nation or just for this region? The statement needs clarification.
2 P33/L13-14 The statement about faith-based organizations “praying for those who suffer” is inappropriate for NCA5 and should be removed from this sentence.

CHAPTER 27: NORTHWEST

# Page/Line Comment
1 P4/L6-8 Give example of damage in Washington and Oregon (i.e., “…as witnessed by [x] in Washington and Oregon…”).
2 P6/L3 Should be “Table 27.1.”
3 P7/L1 Suggest key message title be more of a statement: “Frontline Communities Affected Most by Climate Impacts.”
4 P7/L19 Remove “are” in “While are many types of….”
5 P9/L8 Suggest “community resilience” instead of “community resiliency.”
6 P9/L16 Suggest chapter references include the chapter title, consistent with other chapters.
7 P9/L22 Suggest tribes and Indigenous communities be included in the recommended glossary. Also suggest “both on and off reservations” is not needed and may not be inclusive of all tribal experiences in the way the chapter authors desire.
8 P9/L31 Suggest managed retreat language be as inclusive as possible and consistently used throughout all chapters. Consider any possible linkages to Chapter 9 (Coastal Effects).
9 P11/L11 Consider using “wildfire” instead of “fire.”
10 P12/L27 Consider using more accessible language for “extirpations.”
11 P13/L9 Seems like there is a missing word after “endangered.”
12 P14/L6 Suggest title be a statement, not a label. May want to include salmon.
13 P15/L25 Should be “increased.”
14 P16/L7 Suggest key message title be a statement: “Climate Changes Impacts on Economies and Livelihoods.”
15 P16/L14 Suggest referencing Chapter 11(Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities).
16 P16/L16 Add citation.
17 P18/L1 Suggest referencing Chapter 9 (Coastal Effects).
18 P18/L13 Suggest referencing Chapter 7 (Forest).
19 P18/L14 Remove “‘s” from “Northwest’s.”
20 P19/L22 Suggest title be more of a statement.
21 P20/L15 Suggest key message title be a statement. Also, currently this section is focused on water, transportation, and energy only. Suggest “Built Infrastructure” is too broad of a title for the current content. Authors
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    should limit title to “Climate Impacts on Infrastructure Systems,” or expand the content that follows.
22 P20/L17 Key Message 27.1 includes housing; however, housing is not referenced below. Suggest including housing below (preferred) or removing housing from the key message.
23 P20/L25 Suggest providing more focus by saying infrastructure systems are threatened.
24 P21/L8 Add citation.
25 P24/L8 Suggest Box 27.4 be assessed to determine if this is necessary or if there is a way to better integrate or connect with a number of other boxes and the Focus On…Feature on wildfire.
26 P24/L28 If kept, include chapter title in reference.
27 P24/L34 If kept, include chapter title in reference.
28 P25/L6 If kept, include chapter title in reference.
29 P25/L9 Suggest key message title be more of a statement.
30 P25/L16 “Climate resilience” instead of “Climate resiliency.”
31 P26/L3 Spell out “BIPOC” since first time using this acronym or replace with “people of color” to be more consistent with language used throughout the chapter.
32 P26/L4 Should be “additional.”
33 P26/L14-16 Suggest mentioning PM standard to help reader gauge significance of 95 micrograms.
34 P28/L1 Remove “and” in “preparedness for and disasters….”
35 P28/L20 Suggest “Address Inequities” instead of “Bridge Inequities.”
36 P29/L20 Spell out “BLM” acronym to avoid ambiguity.
37 P30/L15 Suggest more accessible language here (e.g., “Northwest Environmental Sense of Place”).
38 P32/L6 Should be “medicinal plants.”
39 P34/L5-6 Add citation.
40 P38/L11 Should be “adaptation.”
41 P39/L6 Add space between “Government” and “2021.”
42 P40/L36 Convention is to say, “Indigenous knowledges.”
43 P41/L16 Statement “…that the region” seems incomplete.
44 P42/L12 Should be “impacts on [not of] tribal….”
45 P42/L26 Replace “is” with “are.”

CHAPTER 28: SOUTHWEST

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L11 Should sea-level rise be included in this list of impacts? It has been going on for many decades.
2 P4/L12 The population of the Southwest is strongly urbanized, but the region/landscape is notable for its vast rural and wild areas, sparsely populated overall.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
3 P6/L1 Walton et al. (2017) is worth including here.
4 P6/Figure 28.2a Any notions why soil moisture is shown increasing across interior California and Nevada here, despite other expectations projected in Chapter 3 (Earth System Processes)?
5 P7/L11 This projection of decreasing rainfall is only supported by a couple of studies and is likely to be very geographically variable (e.g., see Figure 6 in Niraulta et al. (2017)—the source for this statement in Chapter 4 [Water]—which shows a lot of place-to -place, model-to-model, differences in recharge outcomes).
6 P7/L16 Pumping “can cause” land subsidence but does not always and does not everywhere even in the Central Valley. There are drawdown thresholds that have to be crossed before subsidence begins.
7 P7/L31 No nature-based options listed?
8 P10/L1 Marine species compositions and geographic distributions. The arrival of new species far from their historical ranges is generally the most public-obvious change in this regard.
9 P10/L16 No citation. Is this from Chapter 10 (Oceans and Marine Resources) of the draft NCA5 report or someplace else?
10 P11/L10 Is “fishers” the correct word here?
11 P11/L15-16 and 30-31 Notably more reference to nature-based/nature-informed solutions here than in Key Message 28.1.
12 P12/L6 Saltwater intrusion changing groundwater quality (especially) and tables.
13 P13/L3 The Delta is not shown in these maps. The easternmost water body shown in upper panels is Suisun Bay, just below the mouth of the Delta.
14 P14/L8-9 In contradiction to the assertion here, Chapter 3 (Earth System Processes) (Key Message 3.12) notes and cites literature that frost hazards from “false springs” increase in current projections. Please revise to acknowledge, correct, or coordinate the assumption here with that finding.
15 P15/L16 Consider adding “forestry” to this list of vulnerable producers. Forestry is not generally considered agricultural, but it fits in among these dryland working lands in a way that is not discussed anywhere else in this chapter (notably not under Key Message 28.5).
16 P16/L14 This discussion focuses strictly on managing farmed fields but neglects the problems that will have to be managed on the increasing fallowed fields—distinct but of equal regional importance.7
17 P17/L7 These programs require a lot of foreknowledge of what outcomes are desired. Is this a place to mention potential for maladaptations sticking to current insurance goals and programs past their useful era?

___________________

7 See https://calmatters.org/commentary/2022/08/drought-requires-new-strategies-for-managing-cropland and https://www.ppic.org/publication/land-transitions-and-dust-in-the-san-joaquin-valley.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
18 P17/L37-38 The economic and livelihood impacts of the 2012-2016 California drought have proved more complex than might be expected at first glance (e.g., far less agricultural-economic impact overall); please consider incorporating perspectives from recent studies, like Medellín-Azuara et al. (2016).
19 P18/L23 Is California intentionally left off this list? Is this just a study-design aspect of the cited article or is California simply not like these others?
20 P19/L30 Is there any other epoch that provides numbers of hospitalizations to compare this 2018-2020 number to?
21 P19/L33 Consider adding pre-natal, natal, and neo-natal outcomes to this list (e.g., Amjad et al., 2021).
22 P19/L38 The term “cocci” should be used instead of Valley Fever because the World Health Organization and CDC are increasingly moving away from geographic stigmatizing names (e.g., COVID-19). It is an illness that often goes unrecognized until someone is ill, which can mask the geography of the disease. The 100-year projections are for cocci to become far more widespread at the end of the century,8 so that the name Valley Fever will be even less appropriate; this projection would also be good to mention here.
23 P20/L9 The sudden appearance of SSP5-8.5 here is out of place compared to the more frequent use of “extreme emissions” and other scenario descriptors elsewhere in the report and chapter.
24 P22/L4 There is notably little white in the interior Southwest of these maps; but also, notably little land in many of those interior areas (much of Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado) that already has few if any intensively harvested agricultural lands.
25 P23/L14 Is “immigrants apprehended” an accepted sampling/metric of the origins of migrants into the Southwest in general?
26 P23/L18 Should “loss of financial resources/livelihoods” be included in this list of drivers?
27 P24/L2 Financial and political constraints?
28 P24/L8 Where is the private sector in all of this?
29 P24/L29 Some long-term context on the role of wildfires in Southwest landscapes and livelihoods would be useful to set the stage for the list of recent events here.
30 P25/L13 Change “is” to “has also been.”
31 P25/L13 Mudslides “and debris flows.”
32 P25/L15 It would be worthwhile noting that climate change is projected to make these “heavy rains” heavier (cite Chapters 2 [Climate Trends] and/or 3 [Earth System Processes]). Although Murray et al. (2021) presumably focuses on coastal communities, this risk is in no way limited to coastal settings. See also Cordeira et al. (2019).
33 P25/L26 Houses “and infrastructure.”

___________________

8 See https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22042022/valley-fever-climate-change.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
34 P25/L15-16 Here and elsewhere, acknowledge that heavy rains are projected to become even more heavy under climate change.
35 P25/L24 If possible, provide a number that this fraction amounts to, or at least a number for the total impact, so that the reader knows whether the small fraction is a large or small amount in absolute terms.
36 P26/L14 Does the forestry industry belong in this list of vulnerable industries?
37 P26/L14 It would be worth including the forestry industry itself in this list.
38 P27/L5 Bark beetles should be mentioned.
39 P27/L15 California-important work is worth citing here (e.g., Westerling, 2018).
40 P27/L27 This is as close as this chapter comes to acknowledging the climate-driven issue of bark beetles and the disturbances and wildfire risks they cause.
41 P28/L10 See Xu et al. (2022), which demonstrates 20 percent reductions of surface-air warming trends on and around managed forecasts and lands.
42 P28/L26 First mention of fire weather. This is a key instigator of wildfire in the Southwest. The question of whether instances of dire fire weather will increase with climate change is as important as the long-term secular changes in general dryness, etc.
43 P28/L30 The introduction of Indigenous ways of managing fire is a major topic around the Southwest. This late introduction of the topic is unfortunate. It should be discussed earlier and more.
44 P28/L30 In context of Key Message 28.4, at least, the lack of any mention of wildfire impacts on infirm and limited mobility persons, and remote underserved, under connected, and easily isolated communities is a problem (see, e.g., Blunt et al., 2022, California Burning; or Gee and Anguiano, 2021, Fire in Paradise, for examples).
45 P29/L27 For a study that documents this for the entire Southwest, and indeed the continental United States, see Albano et al. (2022).
46 P30/L6 The temporal variability of recharge rates and locations is even less well understood. It is also more directly tied to understanding and quantifying the likely impacts of climate change on recharge.
47 P30/L11 Add atmospheric rivers to this list of precipitation mechanisms/modes that need more climate-change research.
48 P30/L19 This reliance on intuition is problematic here. At the very least, history tells us that Indigenous and rural people and communities are often better “equipped” with traditional ecological knowledge to not locate themselves where risks are high.
49 P31/L2-3 Provide a citation for this statement. There are dozens of studies that have shown that snow-fed streamflow (runoff) amounts have not been declining, in contrast to snowmelt timing, among others. If this statement is intended to mean that the part of runoff that comes from the declining snowpacks is declining, this may be true; but runoff in (historically) snow-fed streams of the Southwest has not been shown
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    to be declining (e.g., Barnett et al., 2008). If the former is what this is intended to say, please reword to be clearer.
50 P35/L34 West Nile virus is not discussed in the body of this chapter and does not belong in this traceable account.
51 P37/L7 It is odd that, after not referencing Westerling’s seminal work at all in the body of this chapter, his work appears front and center in this traceable account. The traceable account should not introduce new citations.

CHAPTER 29: ALASKA

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L4-6 Suggest adding references for, “glaciers are shrinking, permafrost is thawing, and sea ice is diminishing. The growing season is longer, and fish, birds, wildlife, and insects have increased in numbers in some areas and dropped sharply in others.”
2 P3/Figure 29.1 Title in text does not match title embedded in figure. Add scale and legend. Great caption. This could be an example for other figures that synthesize a large amount of information.
3 P4/L11 “…a wide variety of more recent arrivals” is unclear. Does this mean that recently non–Alaska Native Indigenous peoples have migrated to Alaska? If so, is that number represented in the one fifth population reference?
4 P4/L11 Suggest using more precise language than “recent arrivals.” For example, briefly discuss the periods of settlers arriving to the state.
5 P4/L14-16 Suggest adding references.
6 P4/L25-27 Suggest adding references.
7 P5/L4-9 What are the projections under other scenarios? Or justify why only RCP8.5 was used.
8 P5/L10 Suggest revising “Many of the most evident” to “More obvious impacts.”
9 P5/L10-14 Suggest adding references for each of these claims. The Committee notices that the ocean and climate related statements are much better referenced overall as compared to the cryosphere related references.
10 P5/L20-27 Projections of a wetter Alaska are treated as almost beneath notice, but it is likely that in a warmer Alaska, more precipitation is likely to cause even more transportation and ecosystem issues and accelerate the thawing of permafrost. Alaska is already seeing more intense and prolonged storms due to poleward migration of Pacific storm tracks and possibly increased meridional loops and flows associated with thawing of the Arctic Ocean.
11 P5/L28 Change “affect” to “will affect.” This paragraph is not strictly or even mostly about the climate changes thus far, and instead is mostly about projections.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
12 P5/L31 Suggest changing “limit” to “constrain.”
13 P5/L33-34 Suggest adding references.
14 P6/Figure 29.2 The park road illustration doesn’t accurately capture the nature of the problem. Briefly describe why these two case studies were chosen for the figure. Page 29-6, line 4: Change tourist economy to tourism economy. The Ocean Conservancy is cited, but it would be better to cite the sources of data presented in the figure.
15 P7/L3-11 This discussion could be strengthened if it were expanded on some. Why is responding to climate change uniquely complicated in Alaska?
16 P7/L7-8 This is not the most illustrative example. An earthquake is a very different kind of event as compared to climate change. For example, there are good warning and coordination systems in place, and so “Alaskans working together” is true, but they are supported by extensive, established systems of response.
17 P8/Table 29.1 Suggest adding or editing to “nature-based solutions.”
18 P8/Table 29.1 This is a really nice table. The table could be improved by removing some jargon (i.e., ecosystem based) and also adding key message numbers.
19 P8/L6 Key Message 29.1. Our Health: Suggest adding likelihood evaluations. Consider an alternate word to resilience or expand on this—resilience to what?
20 P9/L1-3 Suggest adding references to support this statement and use more precise language than “many Alaskans”.
21 P9/L14-16 This could be strengthened with more references.
22 P10/L10-11 This statement: “adaptations have the potential to exacerbate these inequalities” could use some additional context. It reads somewhat abstract; perhaps offer an example?
23 P10/L23-24 Could chapter authors say something more specific about how rabies and climate are connected? For example, “…with potential connections to changing climate conditions, because of the shifting range of species [citation].”
24 P10/L32-39 Suggest chapter authors more explicitly connect the dots between harmful algal blooms (HABs) and food sources, to further discuss why HABs matter for human health. It is not explicit in this paragraph.
25 P11/L3-6 Was this because of indoor plumbing? How do other factors like cohabitation affect this relationship? If more than one factor is described in the study, it might be better to frame this as a contributing factor versus a causal relationship.
26 P11/L12 A figure allowing the reader to envision how the pass is structured and works here would be very effective.
27 P11/L19-20 “As an example illustrates” is odd wording. Is there supposed to be an example here that is missing?
28 P11/L21-22 Suggest adding a reference for the link between mold and pregnancy.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
29 P11/L28-36 The Committee agrees with the points raised on mental health impacts due to climate change. However, the citations are on First Peoples located in Canada. We suggest referencing research conducted with Alaska Natives or generalize the statements. If citations are not available, then suggest changing “Alaska Native populations whose ... are particularly vulnerable” (line 33) to “are potentially vulnerable.”
30 P12/L1-11 This paragraph addresses COVID-19 essentially from the perspective of “is the health care system up to ‘it’ for COVID and other disasters.” But in Alaska, the problem of getting people to the health care system is often the real crux. Some discussion of how transportation improvements play into the effectiveness of the health care system would be very helpful here.
31 P15/Figure 29.5 Very nice figure. The Committee suggests adding a summary in the caption as to why the proportion of race by region matters.
32 P16/L16 Whose data are these from fall 2018?
33 P18/L3-4 Consider adding to each of these claims (climate change contributing to collapse and collapse undermining jobs/ways of life).
34 P19/Figure 29.7 Significant parts of Alaska’s “modern” economics and services base have been built upon, and rely upon, the fossil fuel industry. As much as any place in the country, when mitigation requires major changes and cutbacks of that industry, what will be the impacts on Alaska’s communities?
35 P20/L5 How many fishery disasters has Alaska had? Since 14 are listed perhaps add total number of disasters (e.g., 14 of X) or omit the number entirely.
36 P20/L11-12 Consider adding references here for how climate change is impacting each species listed.
37 P21/L5-10 Suggest adding references.
38 P22/Figure 29.8 Perhaps the authors can find another image to better convey their point of importing fish into a fishing community.
39 P22/L5 Key Message 29.4. Our Built Environment: Suggest rephrasing part of the key message to consistently format the likelihood statements (i.e., “Further warming will to lead to greater needs and costs for maintenance or replacement of buildings, roads, airports, and other facilities (high confidence, very likely)).
40 P23/L22-23 Might consider adding something about how there have been efforts to broadly model permafrost, but localized assessments are not available, and cite associated modeling efforts.
41 P24/L5 Consider using a different term than managed retreat because of its problematic connotations.
42 P24/L10-18 Authors might consider briefly mentioning the legal challenge related to relocation, in that no one entity seems to be legally responsible to pay for these moves.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
43 P24/L27 This paragraph discusses climate impacts on the fossil fuel industry but should discuss the impact of (likely) major changes in that industry, in reaction to climate change, on Alaska.
44 P25/L14-18 This could be strengthened by adding references to support the discussion about conflicts over fish and wildlife resources.
45 P29/L11-14 This section could be strengthened with a good definition of security. The differing kinds of security explained feel like they were forced together, but a good definition could help make this section more coherent.
46 P30/Figure 29.13 Suggest splitting this figure into two because the text and information is nearly too small to read.
47 P30/L16-21 This section could be strengthened with more references.
48 P30/L22 The Committee is unclear as to whether this paragraph is mostly talking about opening of the Bering Sea, versus more about opening of the Arctic Ocean traffic.
49 P31/L25 This word likely should not be italicized, because it is not within a key message.
50 P32/Box 29.7 Nice balance of local perspective and the broader context needed to understand the comment. This could be a reference for the other boxes.
51 P32/L12 Change “would” to “will.”
52 P39/L29 Consider adding climate impacts on other racial/ethnic groups in Alaska to the research gaps section.

CHAPTER 30: HAWAI‘I AND US-AFFILIATED PACIFIC ISLANDS

# Page/Line Comment
1 P10/L14 How does rising temperature affect freshwater resources? Is there a reference that directly relates temperature to freshwater resources? The other factors listed are clearly relevant, but temperature should be removed from the list if no reference exists to provide a verifiable physical link.
2 P10/L24 Most traditional fishponds (at least in Hawai‘i) are saltwater or brackish. This section is about freshwater resources, so please clarify that this refers to traditional freshwater fishponds or remove if not.
3 P10/L25 Same as above for energy and microgrids. Are these related to freshwater resources?
4 P11/L14-15 This should be added to research gaps on page 30-36.
5 P12/L4-5 Is there information about such declines for the Pacific Islands in particular?
6 P12/L16 Is the semicolon supposed to be after the Galappaththi reference?
7 P12/L17 Should this be “and decrease local access?”
8 P13/L16-19 This sentence was challenging to digest quickly. Suggest replacing “flooding depressing” with “increased flood frequency depressing.”
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    Also suggest replacing the semicolon with a period. The sentence about Hawai‘i is a separate statement.
9 P14/L20 Suggest replacing “length, this increases” with “length, the project increased.”
10 P16/L9-13 The citations provided here pertain to the increases in the physical climate events, but the way this sentence is phrased, it could be read as if these references connect the physical events to health (which they do not). To avoid confusion and misattribution, it would be best to restructure this sentence to lead with stating the that the physical events will increase with the stated references, and then follow with the statement that the events will be connected to increasing health impacts and add references (perhaps referring to those in the following paragraph).
11 P18/L17-26 This paragraph only mentions climate in passing. Suggest reworking to provide more concrete connections to climate (rather than general epidemiological trends), perhaps via the references on line 20?
12 P21/L11 Period missing at the end of the paragraph.
13 P32/L33-34 A word is missing in this sentence between “protecting” and “from.”
14 P40/L11-14 This is pertinent information that should be repeated for any key messages that use these models (or similar) as a basis.

CHAPTER 31: ADAPTATION

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L5-7 Refer to Chapters 2 (Climate Trends) and 3 (Earth System Processes) rather than literature.
2 P3/L9-14 It seems this point on whether incremental adaptation is sufficient, which is critical to the chapter, should not be in the introduction, but addressed in more depth in the key messages. The first sentence is quite vague. Hard for the reader to know where the statement applies.
3 P3/L13 Suggest including “regions” with levels and sectors.
4 P3/L28-30 This is policy prescriptive. Could say “Shi and Moser find….”
5 P7/L9-11 This sentence is unclear as written. Fossil fuel reliant communities cannot adapt?
6 P7/L32-34 This is a very important sentence given the emphasis of the chapter on the need for transformative adaptation. Is the failure of incremental adaptation expected under all climate change scenarios, for example, even those limiting warming to 2 or 1.5°C?
7 P8/L5-7 Does the statement about insufficiency of funding for adaptation consider the funding for adaptation in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, both enacted in 2022?
8 P9/L5 Suggest key message title be more of a statement and less of a label.
9 P13/L1 Suggest key message title be more of a statement and less of a label.
10 P13/L24 Suggest adding wildfire to this list.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
11 P14/L15 Suggest changing out “amenities” for something more detailed like “economic development” or “workforce.”
12 P14/L15 Are matching funds also a barrier?
13 P14/L32 Does this fire reference refer to urban fires of wildfires?
14 P16/L5 Suggest either including communities after “wealthy” or rewording the sentence to be clearer. Adaptation for well-resourced communities may lead to negative outcomes for already overburdened communities.
15 P16/L26 Suggest key message title be more of a statement and less of a label.
16 P18/L3 Please add states to “some cities and utilities,” as some states also have centralized offices focused on resilience and/or sustainability.
17 P18/L14 Suggest adding the chapter title with the reference.
18 P18/L18-25 The paragraph is policy prescriptive but can be rewritten.
19 P19/L23 The paragraph is policy prescriptive.
20 P20/L21 Suggest key message title be more of a statement and less of a label.
21 P24/L9 Suggest key message title be more of a statement and less of a label. Suggest more approachable language like “Paying for Adaptation.”
22 P24/L11 Recommend ordering the key message statements with medium confidence statements last, not first.
23 P25/L30 Remove “but.”
24 P26/L1 Figure 31.6 may not communicate what the authors are trying to communicate. Rethink if this should be showing that there is no financial incentive to proactively adapting coastal properties and if proactive adaption costs are missing from rail or so faint they cannot be seen. It also appears that no additional costs are similar to reactive adaptation costs.
25 P27/L22 Suggest adding titles to the key messages being referenced here and throughout.
26 P27/L23 Suggest adding titles to the key messages being referenced here and throughout.
27 P28/L34 Suggest adding titles to the key messages being referenced here and throughout.

CHAPTER 32: MITIGATION

# Page/Line Comment
1 P3/L2-4 This sentence is a confusing sentence to start out the chapter with. Also, the introduction is short. Suggest starting with a summary or definition statement about mitigation (like the second sentence, line 5) and then providing an overview of the chapter before delving into key messages.
2 P3/L19 Suggest in-line definition of the Paris Agreement and description of nationally determined contributions (line 25) for general audiences.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
3 P3/L22-24 Please add to the sentence that net-zero can be reached earlier than mid-century depending on considerations of international equity and burden-sharing (van Soest et al., 2021). Reaching net zero before mid-century would also likely be a lower cost scenario (Schaeffer et al., 2020).
4 P3/L28 If the number is negative 6 percent or a decline, suggest spelling out negative or stating that this is a decline.
5 P4/L1 In the figure, the net-zero label on the graph is a bit confusing because the graph shows just emissions, not emissions and sinks. Suggest relabeling the graph to highlight the years when emissions reductions goals will occur rather than the “net zero emissions benchmarks.”
6 P4/L15-16 Suggest defining key GHG “sources” and “sinks” in this section, and then describing major trends among those. Suggest adding projections 50 and 100 years into the future to meet statutory charge. In this first section, suggest including citations for where all the data are from.
7 P4/L18 Is there a reason the net emissions are depicted with the end year of 2019 rather than 2020 or 2021? Perhaps pandemic-related anomalies? Suggest explaining this in the traceable accounts section.
8 P5/L5-6 Suggest a citation after this sentence.
9 P5/L9-11 This sentence is not clearly written. Suggest more clearly specifying what is offsetting what and suggest defining emissions intensity and energy intensity in-line, for audiences: “changes in US energy-related emissions were primarily driven by increases in population and GDP per capita. However, these increases were offset by decreases in energy related GHG emissions, emissions intensity, and energy intensity. Energy intensity refers to ___, while emissions intensity refers to ____.” Does “Decreases in energy emissions” refer to energy intensity? If yes, then please use “energy intensity” so the supporting text aligns with the labels in the figure.
10 P6/L1-6 Suggest describing the relationship between the energy sector and the electricity sector (e.g., electricity sector emissions comprise what portion of energy sector emissions).
11 P6/L1-6 Suggest explaining why coal use declined and renewables increased (e.g., tax credits, gas prices).
12 P6/L7-12 Spell out “MWh” and ensure broad audiences can understand the figure.
13 P6/L14-20 Suggest noting what forms of transportation use the fuels listed and are the highest emitters (e.g., cars, trains, planes). Be specific so audiences can understand linkages to their lives.
14 P6/L19-20 Suggest defining what “vehicle-km” is for the audiences. Suggest clarifying text: “improvements in energy per vehicle-km were more modest” (and suggest what a negative 8.6% means). Also, consider including a time range for when the change the sentence discusses occurred.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
15 P11/L4 This is a great example of an in-line definition and provides a great reference for how to do this where the Committee has suggested adding in-line definitions in other places.
16 P11/L17-27 May want to consider defining “dispatchable or firm” for audiences.
17 P11/L29-31 Great job including recent developments (i.e., IRA), though the IRA is likely to help all electricity sources not just solar and wind.
18 P11/L35-36 The phrase “assuming appropriate market structures and incentives” is unclear. Please add more language to clarify what this clause actually means.
19 P12/L10-13 Consider adding a sentence discussing the ability to expand transmission and interregional infrastructure.
20 P13/L1-2 Figure 32.9(b) is not clear in what it is depicting, and the caption is not helpful to describe it. Suggest adding labels to the figure on the y-axis and indicating the timescale on the graph.
21 P14/L3 List examples of alternative fuels (i.e., “such as …”).
22 P15/L7-13 This sentence is hard to follow, particularly the last two clauses: “fundamental changes in processes as well as carbon capture and storage.” What are the fundamental changes in processes referred to? What are the challenges expected with CCUS? Suggest: “Similarly most industrial energy demand could be electrified using existing technologies. Achieving net-zero emissions in some industries may present special challenges—particularly related to the costs of supplying high-temperature heat with electricity, adapting to changes in processes, and developing regulatory frameworks to support carbon capture and storage projects.”
23 P16/L4 Offset “thus” with commas.
24 P16/L9 How is this food wasted? Individuals, in production, by commercial industry? Give examples if possible.
25 P16/L31-34 Not sure “tasty” fits well in this sentence.
26 P24/L9-15 This discussion is very similar to the discussion under Key Message 32.2 that discusses shifting diets. It could be mentioned there and removed from here to save space.
27 P28/L1-6 Figure 32.16 is not cited to in any of the supporting text.
28 P31/L28-33 This discussion might warrant mention of recent legislative actions attempting to address these disparities (e.g., IRA tax credits for electric vehicles, two-tier tax credit system now encouraging consideration of apprenticeships and community where sited).
29 P32/L1-5 This caption needs much more description.
30 P34/L1-4 Suggest caption include description of what classifies a “mitigation” activity. Many cities, universities, and local groups have acted in the absence of state leadership. Some states have governor leadership (i.e., executive orders) without legislative action, vice versa, or both.
31 P38/L1-6 Figure 32.22: The Committee recognizes that this figure is under development, but as presently depicted, it is unclear based on the multiple titles and labels on the figure whether the figure is depicting emissions reduction potential by abatement measure, savings per
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
×
    abatement measure, cost per MMT of CO2e offset by each abatement measure, incremental cost per MMT of CO2e offset by each abatement measure, or some combination because the language and labels indicate all of the above. The Committee suggests adding much clearer labels, titles, and very clear caption text to explain this figure in both this chapter and Chapter 1 (Overview) (Figure 1.18). The x-axis should be labeled in the correct units and the box should be labeled in the correct units with the color gradients much more distinct (blues and yellows are not distinguishable from each other). In the caption, the term “marginal costs” should be explained as well as the key takeaways from the figure. Please give an example for the audiences from/using the figure.

FOCUS FEATURE ON COVID-19 AND CLIMATE CHANGE

# Page/Line Comment
1 P F3-2/L8 Please add Mora et al. (2022) to the references.

APPENDIX 3

# Page/Line Comment
1 P A3-3/L1-7 Figure should be self-standing so more information about each panel needs to be presented.

APPENDIX 4

# Page/Line Comment
1 P A4-8/L3-22 The discussion on billion-dollar disasters needs to note the complexity of this indicator and how it is not just influenced by change in frequency and intensity of extreme events but also by exposure to such events. The Committee’s comments on the billion-dollar damages figures in Chapter 1 (Overview) and in Chapter 2 (Climate Trends) point out that the increase in the number of billion-dollar disasters may also be the result of increased population, particularly in hazardous areas, and in property values rising faster than the Consumer Price Index. Indeed, this indicator provides an excellent opportunity to discuss the complexity of some indicators, particularly those that measure societal impacts. The discussion should point out that such impacts can be affected by many factors.
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Line-by-Line Comments." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/26757.
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Roughly every four years, the U.S. Global Change Research Program produces a congressionally mandated assessment of global change science and the impacts, adaptation, and mitigation of climate change in the United States. The draft Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), released publicly in November 2022, covers a wide range of U.S. impacts, from human health and community well-being to the built environment, businesses and economies, and ecosystems and water resources. NCA5 had the largest scale of collaboration to date in the series, with input from hundreds of experts from all levels of governments, academia, non-government organizations, the private sector, and the public. The National Academies report provides an independent, comprehensive review and makes recommendations to strengthen the accuracy, credibility, and accessibility of the draft NCA5 report.

The National Academies’ review of the draft NCA5 report finds that it successfully meets the requirements of the federal mandate, provides accurate information, and effectively communicates climate science to the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders. The review makes recommendations for ways the draft NCA5 report could be strengthened, including: adopting more clear and consistent structure for key messages and figures across the report; resolving inconsistencies between chapters in how terms and topics are discussed, for example the use of scenarios and projections; intentionally applying an equity and justice lens across chapters; and increasing emphasis on certain topical areas.

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