Framework for Assessing Potential Safety Impacts of Automated Driving Systems (2022)

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2022 B E H A V O R I A L T R A F F I C S A F E T Y C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M BTSCRP RESEARCH REPORT 2 Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Ofcials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and under the direction and oversight of the Governors Highway Safety Association Subscriber Categories Operations and Trafc Management • Safety and Human Factors • Vehicles and Equipment Framework for Assessing Potential Safety Impacts of Automated Driving Systems Booz Allen Hamilton Washington, DC VHB Engineering Watertown, MA Quantitative Scientic Solutions Arlington, VA N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1001

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agree- ment No. 693JJ31950003. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs iden- tified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1001 Project 17-91 ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-68738-6 Library of Congress Control Number 2022945854 © 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or speci- fications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

BEHAVIORAL TRAFFIC SAFETY COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Since the widespread introduction of motor vehicles more than a century ago, crashes involving their operation remain a significant public health concern. While there have been enormous improvements in highway design and construction, as well as motor vehicle safety, which have been instrumental in lowering the rate of crashes per mil- lion miles in the United States, more than 35,000 people die every year in motor vehicle crashes. In far too many cases, the root causes of the crashes are the unsafe behaviors of motor vehicle operators, cyclists, and pedestrians. Understanding human behaviors and developing effective countermeasures to unsafe ones is difficult and remains a major weakness in our traffic safety efforts. The Behavioral Traffic Safety Cooperative Research Program (BTSCRP) develops practical solutions to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce costs of road traffic crashes associated with unsafe behav- iors. BTSCRP is a forum for coordinated and collaborative research efforts. It is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) under the direction and oversight of the Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA) with funding provided by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Funding for the program was originally established in Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21), Subsection 402(c), which created the National Cooperative Research and Evaluation Program (NCREP). Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act continued the program. In 2017, GHSA entered into an agreement with TRB to manage the research activities, with the program name changed to Behavioral Traf- fic Safety Cooperative Research Program. The GHSA Executive Board serves as the governing board for the BTSCRP. The Board consists of officers, representatives of the 10 NHTSA regions, and committee and task force chairs. The Research Committee Chair appoints committee members who recommend projects for funding and provide oversight for the activities of BTSCRP. Its ultimate goal is to oversee a quality research program that is committed to addressing research issues fac- ing State Highway Safety Offices. The Executive Board meets annu- ally to approve research projects. Each selected project is assigned to a panel, appointed by TRB, which provides technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The majority of panel mem- bers represent the intended users of the research projects and have an important role in helping to implement the results. BTSCRP produces a series of research reports and other products such as guidebooks for practitioners. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating BTSCRP results to the intended users of the research: State Highway Safety Offices and their constituents. BTSCRP RESEARCH REPORT 2 Project BTS-07 ISSN 2766-5976 (Print) ISSN 2766-5984 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-68738-6 Library of Congress Control Number 2022945854 © 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transporta- tion Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or speci- fications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Behavioral Traffic Safety Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published research reports of the BEHAVIORAL TRAFFIC SAFETY COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America

e National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. e National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. e National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. e three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. e National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. e Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. e mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. e Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. e program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1001/ BTSCRP RESEARCH REPORT 2 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Sid Mohan, Associate Program Manager, Implementation and Technology Transfer, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Richard Retting, Senior Program Officer Dajaih Bias-Johnson, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications NCHRP PROJECT 17-91/BTSCRP PROJECT BTS-07 PANEL Field of Traffic—Area of Safety Joel M. Jundt, South Dakota Department of Transportation, Pierre, SD (Chair) Peter K. Anderson, Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority (RTA), Cleveland, OH Richard T. Arnold, Michigan State Police, Dimondale, MI Christopher G. Falcos, Massachusetts Department of Transportation, East Boston, MA Stephanie A. Finch, WSP, Glastonbury, CT Nicholas A. Giudice, University of Maine, Orono, ME Darrin Thomas Grondel, Foundation for Advancing Alcohol Responsibility, Hurricane, UT Curt Heaslet, Amazon, North Bend, WA Lora Hollingsworth, Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee, FL John C. Milton, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, WA Raj V. Ponnaluri, Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee, FL John Saunders, Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles, Fredericksburg, VA Gustavo Serratos, Jr., City of Detroit Department of Public Works, Lincoln Park, MI Joanna Wadsworth, Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada, Las Vegas, NV Wei Zhang, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), McLean, VA Joseph Kolly, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Liaison Kathy J. Sifrit, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Liaison

NCHRP Research Report 1001/BTSCRP Research Report 2 presents a framework intended to help state and local transportation agencies, as well as other stakeholders, assess the safety impact of automated driving system (ADS) technologies. The framework supports safety plan- ning, design, operational decisions, and investments on multimodal infrastructure. The report also presents results of a proof-of-concept study that involved pilot testing the framework in partnership with two state departments of transportation. ADS technologies are quickly advancing and are expected to have disruptive impacts on transportation safety in the coming years. ADS technologies will change planning, design, and operational criteria, which means there is a growing need for roadways that are traditionally planned, designed, and operated with human drivers in mind to begin to adapt to an ADS envi- ronment. A framework is needed for practitioners to use in current and future safety planning, design, operational decisions, and investments on multimodal infrastructure. In NCHRP Project 17-91/BTSCRP Project BTS-07, a research team led by Booz Allen Hamilton was asked to develop a framework for use by practitioners (e.g., transportation infra- structure owners, safety agencies, road users and ADS manufacturers) to assess the safety impact of ADS technologies. ADS technologies include a plethora of applications that impact safety, mobility, human factors, and environmental aspects of driving. The report provides guidance to state and local agencies and other stakeholders on how to adapt the framework for a variety of scenarios. The report also provides a practical application of the framework by summarizing results of a proof-of-concept study that involved pilot testing the framework in partnership with two state departments of transportation. The framework addresses the following key questions: • What are the key factors influencing ADS safety and how do they relate to planning, design, and operations decisions and tools? • With limited ADS safety-related data available, how can the impacts of ADS technologies on safety be estimated and support decision-making? • What steps can agencies take to achieve safety goals, meet user needs, and prioritize investments in ways that consider the impacts of ADS technologies? A web video was produced as part of NCHRP Project 17-91/BTSCRP Project BTS-07 to further inform practitioners and the public about the framework. That video, as well several documents, including Proof of Concept Results, an Implementation Plan, and Future Research Needs, can be obtained from the National Academies Press website (www.nap.edu) by searching for NCHRP Research Report 1001/BTSCRP Research Report 2: Framework for Assessing Potential Safety Impacts of Automated Driving Systems. By Richard Retting Staff Officer Transportation Research Board F O R E W O R D

1 Summary 3 Chapter 1 Introduction and Background 3 Need for Framework 3 Goals of the Framework 4 Target Audience 4 Technical Background 6 Chapter 2 ADS Impacts on Safety 6 Current Understanding of Safety Landscape 6 Roadway Safety Management Process 9 Project Development Process. 11 Map Crash Data to ADS Functionality 13 ADS Performance 15 Chapter 3 Overview of the Framework Elements 16 Step 1—Select ADS Feature to Assess 17 Step 2—Understand the ADS Feature 17 Description of ADS Feature 17 Expected Market 18 Step 3—Define Deployment Scenarios 18 ADS Penetration Rates 19 Operational Design Domains 19 Risk Assessment 20 Example Deployment Scenario 20 Step 4—Defining Goals and Hypotheses 20 ADS-Level Goals and Hypotheses 23 Agency-Level Goals and Hypotheses 24 Step 5—Choose Method of Analysis 24 Traffic Safety Impacts 26 Define Data Sources 28 Define Metrics 30 Evaluation Method 33 Results 36 Further Socioeconomic Considerations 39 Step 6—Communicate Outcomes 40 Communications Goal and Target Objectives 40 Stakeholder/Audience Analysis 41 Key Themes and Messages, and Stakeholder-Message Mapping 41 Communications Plan C O N T E N T S

43 Chapter 4 Direct Application of the Framework 43 Framework Proof of Concept with MnDOT—Rochester Automated Shuttle Pilot 45 Step 1—Identify ADS Application(s) of Interest 45 Step 2—Understand the ADS Application 46 Step 3—Define Deployment Scenarios 47 Step 4—Define Safety Goals and Hypothesis 48 Step 5—Choose Analysis Methodology 60 Step 6—Communicate Outcomes 61 Framework Proof of Concept with Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT)—ADS-Equipped Trucks Along I-81 (VDOT, 2021) 63 Step 1—Identify ADS Application(s) of Interest 63 Step 2—Understand the ADS Application 63 Application Description 63 Expected Market 64 Step 3—Define Deployment Scenarios 64 Operational Design Domain 64 Stage of Technology Development 66 Infrastructure Needs and Impacts 67 Risk Assessment 68 Step 4—Define Safety Goals and Hypothesis 69 Step 5—Choose Analysis Methodology 69 Data Sources 71 Evaluation Method 72 Results 74 Step 6—Communicate Outcomes 76 Chapter 5 Conclusion 78 Bibliography A-1 Appendix A Factors Considered for Estimating ADS Market Penetration B-1 Appendix B Additional Example Scenarios C-1 Appendix C Reference Crash Data for Traffic Jam Assist Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.nap.edu) retains the color versions.