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NCHRP Web-Only Document 346 Programmatic Issues of Future System Performance WSP Inc. Washington, DC Conduct of Research Report for NCHRP Project 20-126(01) Submitted May 2022 © 2022 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 initiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniquesâthe National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agreement No. 693JJ31950003. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or specifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board, the National Academies, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP WEB-ONLY DOCUMENT 346 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Sid Mohan, Associate Program Manager, Implementation and Technology Transfer, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Sheila A. Moore, Senior Program Associate Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Jennifer Correro, Assistant Editor NCHRP PROJECT 20-126(01) PANEL Field of Special Projects Robert L. Sack, Burnt Hills, NY (Chair) James Darryll Dockstader, Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee, FL Timothy McDowell, Cheyenne, WY John C. Milton, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, WA Cameron T. Kergaye, Utah Department of Transportation, Holladay, UT Dale Peabody, Maine Department of Transportation, Augusta, ME Jean M. Wallace, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul, MN Kimberly L. Webb, Michigan Department of Transportation, Southfield, MI Stephen Woelfel, Massachusetts Department of Transportation, Boston, MA Richard Y. Woo, Maryland Department of Transportation, Baltimore, MD Ben Hawkinson, FHWA Liaison King W. Gee, AASHTO Liaison Jim McDonnell, AASHTO Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS WSP USA appreciates the assistance of the agency executives and staff who participated in the preparation of this report. We thank staff members from numerous state DOTs, academia and consulting industry who participated in research gaps and needs discussions with the project team. The panel review committee reviewed our draft and final documents, and we thank them for insightful comments.
iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... viii SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 1 Research Products ..................................................................................................................... 2 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 6 Background ............................................................................................................................... 6 Research Objectives .................................................................................................................. 6 Research Approach ................................................................................................................... 7 Report Organization .................................................................................................................. 8 CHAPTER 2: UNIFIED FRAMEWORK .................................................................................. 9 Analysis of the CIHS and CIT2019 Reports............................................................................. 9 Critical Review of the Literature ............................................................................................ 14 Listening Sessions with Transportation Subject Matter Experts ............................................ 15 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 15 CHAPTER 3: ANALYTICAL PROCEDURE DEVELOPMENT ........................................ 17 Analytical Procedure Steps ..................................................................................................... 17 Organizational Elements (Steps 1â3) ...................................................................................... 18 Refined Threats and Opportunities (Step 4) ........................................................................... 19 Refined Research Gap Prioritization Criteria and Process (Steps 5â8) .................................. 19 Engagement with Transportation Subject Matter Experts (Step 9) ........................................ 20 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENTS ...................................................... 21 Process to Develop the Research Problem Statements ........................................................... 21 Final Research Problem Statements........................................................................................ 21 Transformational Technologies ........................................................................................ 23 System Performance and Condition.................................................................................. 29 System Use........................................................................................................................ 37 System Impacts and Externalities ..................................................................................... 41 Organizational Capacity and Governance ........................................................................ 47 Equity ................................................................................................................................ 51 CHAPTER 5: SELF-ASSESSMENT TOOL ........................................................................... 59 Overview of the Self-Assessment Tool .................................................................................. 59
v Structure and Steps ................................................................................................................. 60 1. Identify Critical Issues of Interest ................................................................................. 61 2. Identify Threats and Opportunities ............................................................................... 64 3. Prioritize and Screen Threats and Opportunities .......................................................... 65 4. Assess Agency Capabilities to Address Threats and Opportunities ............................. 67 5. Identify Strategies ......................................................................................................... 72 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTED RESEARCH ...................................... 76 Research Summary ................................................................................................................. 76 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 77 APPENDIX A. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................ 79 Transformational Technologies .............................................................................................. 79 References ......................................................................................................................... 85 System Performance and Condition........................................................................................ 87 References ......................................................................................................................... 93 System Use.............................................................................................................................. 95 Underlying Socio-demographic Factors and Disruptions Influencing System Use ......... 97 Multi- and Inter-modality for Enhancing Connectivity .................................................... 99 Analysis/Impacts of Freight Strategies ........................................................................... 101 Technology Applications ................................................................................................ 103 References ....................................................................................................................... 105 System Impacts and Externalities ......................................................................................... 109 References ....................................................................................................................... 115 Organizational Capacity and Governance ............................................................................ 120 Issues within an Agency ................................................................................................. 120 Multijurisdictional Issues ................................................................................................ 121 Cross-Cutting Issues ....................................................................................................... 123 References ....................................................................................................................... 124 Equity .................................................................................................................................... 129 References ....................................................................................................................... 136 APPENDIX B. UNIFIED FRAMEWORK INTEREST AREA WHITE PAPERS ........... 140 TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES ...................................................................... 140 Transformational Technologies and Opportunities .............................................................. 140 Connected and Automated Vehicles ............................................................................... 140 Electrification .................................................................................................................. 141
vi Unmanned Aircraft Systems and Advanced Air Mobility .............................................. 141 Freight Technologies ...................................................................................................... 142 Personal Life Technologies ............................................................................................. 143 Constraints and Threats......................................................................................................... 143 Acceptance and Awareness............................................................................................. 143 Regulation and Role of the DOT .................................................................................... 144 Infrastructure Requirements and Impacts to the Built Environment and Equity ............ 146 Research Gaps ....................................................................................................................... 148 SYSTEM PERFORMANCE AND CONDITION ................................................................. 153 Understanding of Critical Issues ........................................................................................... 153 Constraints and Threats......................................................................................................... 154 Opportunities......................................................................................................................... 155 Research Gaps ....................................................................................................................... 156 SYSTEM USE ........................................................................................................................... 160 Sociodemographic Factors and Land Use............................................................................. 160 Understanding and Opportunities ................................................................................... 160 Constraints and Threats................................................................................................... 161 Multimodal Connectivity and System Integration ................................................................ 162 Understanding and Opportunities ................................................................................... 162 Constraints and Threats................................................................................................... 163 Transformational Technology ............................................................................................... 164 Opportunities, Constraints and Threats........................................................................... 164 Research Gaps ....................................................................................................................... 164 SYSTEM IMPACTS AND EXTERNALITIES ..................................................................... 168 Sustainability and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies .................................................... 168 Understanding and Opportunities ................................................................................... 168 Constraints and Threats................................................................................................... 169 Mitigating Negative Social Outcomes .................................................................................. 171 Opportunities, Constraints and Threats........................................................................... 171 Land Use Policy and Planning .............................................................................................. 172 Opportunities, Constraints and Threats........................................................................... 172 Research Gaps ....................................................................................................................... 173 ORGANIZATIONAL CAPACITY AND GOVERNANCE ................................................. 177 Understanding of Critical Issues ........................................................................................... 177 Organizational Capacity.................................................................................................. 177
vii Multijurisdictional Partnerships ...................................................................................... 177 Constraints and Threats......................................................................................................... 178 Organizational Capacity.................................................................................................. 178 Multijurisdictional Partnerships ...................................................................................... 179 Opportunities......................................................................................................................... 179 Organizational Capacity.................................................................................................. 180 Multijurisdictional Partnerships ...................................................................................... 180 Research Gaps ....................................................................................................................... 181 EQUITY IN TRANSPORTATION ........................................................................................ 183 Understanding of Critical Issues ........................................................................................... 183 Constraints and Threats......................................................................................................... 183 Equity Issues ................................................................................................................... 183 Issues relating to incorporating equity in transportation decision-making ..................... 185 Opportunities......................................................................................................................... 186 Research Gaps ....................................................................................................................... 187 APPENDIX C. ANALYTICAL PROCEDURE RESEARCH TRACKS, SUB-TRACKS, AND KEYWORDS ................................................................................................................... 189 APPENDIX D. THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES BY INTEREST AREA ................... 195 APPENDIX E. CURRENT RESEARCH RELATED TO THE RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENTS ......................................................................................................................... 204 Transformational Technologies ............................................................................................ 204 System Performance and Condition...................................................................................... 209 System Use............................................................................................................................ 216 System Impacts and Externalities ......................................................................................... 220 Organizational Capacity and Governance ............................................................................ 225 Equity .................................................................................................................................... 227 APPENDIX F. STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS TO RESPOND TO CRITICAL ISSUES AND ENHANCE AGENCY CAPABILITIES ....................................................................... 232 Interest Area: Transformational Technologies ..................................................................... 232 Interest Area: System Performance and Condition ............................................................... 235 Interest Area: System Use ..................................................................................................... 237 Interest Area: System Impacts and Externalities .................................................................. 241 Interest Area: Organizational Capacity and Governance ...................................................... 245 Interest Area: Equity ............................................................................................................. 247
viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Final Research Problem Statements. ................................................................................ 3 Table 2: CIHS and CIT2019 Reports Issue Comparison. ............................................................... 9 Table 3: Unified Framework Based on the CIHS and CIT2019 Reports. .................................... 11 Table 4: Number of Research Gaps by Interest Area and Research Tracks. ................................ 18 Table 5: Final Research Problem Statements. .............................................................................. 21 Table 6: Critical Issues by Interest Area. ...................................................................................... 62 Table 7: Questions to Prioritize and Screen Threats and Opportunities. ...................................... 66 Table 8: Assessment Factors for Addressing Threats and Opportunities. .................................... 68 Table 9: Assessment Factor Evaluation Range. ............................................................................ 69 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Analytical Procedure. .................................................................................................... 17 Figure 2: Self-Assessment Tool Start Screen. .............................................................................. 59 Figure 3: Self-Assessment Tool Process....................................................................................... 61 Figure 4: Interest Area and Critical Issue Selection. .................................................................... 64 Figure 5: Threat and Opportunity Selection. ................................................................................ 65 Figure 6: Threats and Opportunities Summary. ............................................................................ 66 Figure 7: Assessment Factor Evaluation....................................................................................... 70 Figure 8: Self-Assessment Output Sample. .................................................................................. 72 Figure 9: Strategy Selection and Input.......................................................................................... 74 Figure 10: Summary Action Plan. ................................................................................................ 75
