The Future of Aviation (2022)

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Conference Proceedings on the Web 29 The Future of Aviation Proceedings of an ACRP Insight Event Mary Ellen Eagan HMMH Rapporteur March 22–23, 2022 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC Organized by the Airport Cooperative Research Program Sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Washington, DC 2022 www.TRB.org

Conference Proceedings on the Web 29 Transportation Research Board (TRB) publications are available by ordering individual publications directly from the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www.TRB.org or nationalacademies.org/trb, or by annual subscription through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone 202-334-3213; fax 202-334-2519; or e-mail TRBsales@nas.edu). NOTICE: This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the project were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This conference was organized through TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) and sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. © 2022 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: Transportation Research Board. Conference Proceedings on the Web 29: The Future of Aviation. Proceedings of an ACRP Insight Event. Washington, DC: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2022.

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Conference Planning Committee Agatha Kessler, Fentress Architects, Chair Angel Ramos, AECOM Marianne Csaky, LanzaJet (formerly with Alaska Airlines) Ken Davidian, Federal Aviation Administration Basil O. Dosunmu, Greenville–Spartanburg Airport District Aneil Patel, Airports Council International—North America Amanda Simpson, Airbus Americas Transportation Research Board Staff Joseph D. Navarrete, Senior Program Officer Stephanie L. Campbell-Chamberlain, Senior Program Assistant Publications Staff for Conference Proceedings on the Web 29 Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Janet M. McNaughton, Senior Editor Jennifer J. Weeks, Publishing Projects Manager Jennifer Correro, Assistant Editor

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2022 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* OFFICERS Chair: Nathaniel P. Ford, Sr., Chief Executive Officer, Jacksonville Transportation Authority, Jacksonville, FL ViCe Chair: Shawn Wilson, Secretary, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Baton Rouge exeCutiVe DireCtor: Neil J. Pedersen, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC MEMBERS Michael F. Ableson, CEO, Arrival Automotive–North America, Detroit, MI James F. Albaugh, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Boeing Company (retired), Scottsdale, AZ Douglas C. Ceva, Vice President, Customer Lead Solutions, Prologis, Inc., Jupiter, FL Marie Therese Dominguez, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany Ginger Evans, President, Tower Consulting, LLC, Arlington, VA Michael F. Goodchild, Professor Emeritus, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, Commissioner, New Jersey Department of Transportation, Trenton Stephen W. Hargarten, Director, Injury Research Center, Associate Dean, Office of Global Health, Professor, Emergency Medicine, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee Chris T. Hendrickson, Hamerschlag University Professor of Engineering Emeritus, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA Randell Iwasaki, Leader of State and Local Transportation, Amazon Web Services, Walnut Creek, CA Ashby Johnson, Executive Director, Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO), Austin, TX Joel M. Jundt, Secretary of Transportation, South Dakota Department of Transportation, Pierre Drew Kodjak, Executive Director, International Council on Clean Transportation, Washington, DC Carol A. Lewis, Professor, Transportation Studies, Texas Southern University, Houston Julie Lorenz, Secretary, Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka Michael R. McClellan, Vice President, Strategic Planning, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA Patrick K. McKenna, Director, Missouri Department of Transportation, Jefferson City Russell McMurry, Commissioner, Georgia Department of Transportation, Atlanta Craig E. Philip, Research Professor and Director, VECTOR, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN Steward T.A. Pickett, Distinguished Senior Scientist, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY Leslie S. Richards, General Manager, Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), Philadelphia James M. Tien, Distinguished Professor and Dean Emeritus, College of Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Michael R. Berube, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Sustainable Transportation, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC Amit Bose, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, Washington, DC Carlos M. Braceras, Executive Director, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City Tristan Brown, Deputy Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC Ann Carlson, Acting Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, DC Steven Cliff, Executive Officer, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA Nuria I. Fernandez, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, Washington, DC LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Germantown, MD William H. Graham, Jr. (Major General, U.S. Army), Deputy Commanding General for Civil and Emergency Operations, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC John T. Gray II, Senior Vice President, Policy and Economics, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC Robert C. Hampshire, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC Robin Hutcheson, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Washington, DC Eleftheria Kontou, Assistant Professor, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, and Chair, TRB Young Members Coordinating Council Billy Nolen, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC Stephanie Pollack, Acting Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC Susan A. Shaheen, Professor and Co-Director, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley Karl Simon, Director, Transportation and Climate Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC Paul P. Skoutelas, President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC Polly Trottenberg, Deputy Secretary of Transportation, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC Jim Tymon, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC * Membership as of November 2022.

Contents Preface ......................................................................................................................................................ix Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................... x Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 Opening Remarks ................................................................................................................................... 3 Keynote Address ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Panel Sessions ...................................................................................................................................... 10 Panel Session 1: Passengers and Customers .............................................................................................. 10 Lance Lyttle, Port of Seattle Billy Shallow, Airports Council International—World Patrick Murray, SSP America Michael Zureik, SITA Panel Session 2: Aviation Workforce of the Future ................................................................................. 12 Candace Blair Cronin, ICF Donald Armstrong, Raleigh–Durham International Airport Linda Frankl, ADK Consulting & Executive Search Tammera Holmes, AeroStar Avion Institute Panel Session 3: Airport Infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 16 Khaled Naja, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport Kevin Cox, Ferrovial Vertiports Peter Ricondo, Ricondo Cindy Simpson, Gensler Scott Tumolo, C&S Companies Panel Session 4: Airspace Integration and New Entrants ..................................................................... 18 Amanda Simpson, Airbus Americas Max Fenkell, Joby Aviation Max Li, Sr., MITRE Center for Advanced Aviation System Development and University of Michigan Leslie Riegle, Boom Supersonic Panel Session 5: Technology and Innovation ............................................................................................. 20 Aneil Patel, Airports Council International—North America Brian Cobb, Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport Kwang Chen, Massachusetts Port Authority Zihong (Zee) Gorman, San Francisco International Airport Jimmy Hahn, CLEAR

Panel Session 6: Climate Change and Sustainability ............................................................................... 23 Marianne Csaky, Alaska Airlines Stephanie Meyn, Port of Seattle Saleem Chapman, City of Philadelphia Adam Klauber, World Energy Stanley Young, National Renewable Energy Lab Breakout Sessions ............................................................................................................................... 26 Breakout Session 1: Workforce of the Future, Airports and Airspace of the Future ................ 26 Mohamed Charkas, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport Max Li, Sr., MITRE Center for Advanced Aviation System Development and University of Michigan Angel Ramos, AECOM Rikki Scantlan, RS&H Breakout Session 2: Technology, Innovation, and Environment ....................................................... 27 Aneil Patel, Airports Council International—North America Brad Rolf, Mead & Hunt Steve Van Beek, Steer Adrian Leung, Steer Closing Remarks .................................................................................................................................. 29 Mary Ellen Eagan, HMMH Appendix A: Program Agenda ......................................................................................................... 31 Appendix B: List of Attendees ......................................................................................................... 38

ix Preface “The Future of Aviation” Insight Event [ACRP Project 11-08(20-01)], held March 22–23, 2022, at the Keck Center of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies) in Washington, DC, brought together airport representatives, community planners, universities and research institutions, and others in the aviation industry to discuss the future of aviation across multiple perspectives. The Transportation Research Board’s (TRB’s) Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) organized the event as part of its series of convening activities titled “ACRP Insight Events.” ACRP Insight Events are forums that foster dialogue between professionals across sectors, institutions, and industries. ACRP Insight Events convene airport industry leaders and subject matter experts in various fields to encourage discussion and promote broader and deeper insight on topics of significance to airport operators. These in-depth, face-to-face gatherings are designed to promote communication and collaboration, foster innovation, and help identify areas of future interest and research, especially for topics of emerging importance. This proceedings document, prepared by rapporteur Mary Ellen Eagan of HMMH, is a compilation of the presentations and a factual summary of the ensuing discussions at the event. The planning committee for the event was solely responsible for organizing the Insight Event, identifying speakers, and coordinating activities during the event. The views contained in this proceedings are those of individual ACRP Insight Event participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all participants, the planning committee, TRB, or the National Academies. This proceedings document was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purposes of this independent review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies in making the published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that the document meets institutional standards for clarity, objectivity, and responsiveness to the project charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. TRB thanks the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: Gaël Le Bris, WSP USA, and Agatha Kessler, Fentress Architects. TRB also thanks Daniel Talmage for reading and providing helpful comments on the manuscript. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of this proceedings before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Chris T. Hendrickson (National Academy of Engineering), Carnegie Mellon University (emeritus). Appointed by the National Academies, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was performed in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the author and the institution.

x Abbreviations AAM Advanced Air Mobility ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program AI artificial intelligence AU Airport UrbanismBOS Boston Logan International Airport CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation CVG Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport EJ environmental justiceeVTOL electric vertical take-off and landing FAA Federal Aviation AdministrationHVAC heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IFR instrument flight rulesMassport Massachusetts Port Authority PHL Philadelphia International Airport RDU Raleigh–Durham International Airport SAF sustainable aviation fuel SAJF sustainable aviation jet fuel SFO San Francisco International Airport STEM science, technology, engineering, and mathematics TRB Transportation Research Board TSA Transportation Security Administration UAM urban air mobility