Consensus Study Report
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This project was supported by Contract FA9550-22-1-0535 with the Department of Defense (Air Force Office of Scientific Research and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), Award Number DE-SC0022878 with the Department of Energy, Award HHSN263201800029I with the National Institutes of Health, and Award AWD-001543 with the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
This material is based on work supported by the Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research.
This project has been funded in part with federal funds from the National Cancer Institute, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Library of Medicine, and Office of Data Science Strategy from the National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services.
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-70042-9
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-70042-6
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26894
Library of Congress Control Number: 2024930543
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26894.
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COMMITTEE ON FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH GAPS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR DIGITAL TWINS
KAREN E. WILLCOX (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin, Chair
DEREK BINGHAM, Simon Fraser University
CAROLINE CHUNG, MD Anderson Cancer Center
JULIANNE CHUNG, Emory University
CAROLINA CRUZ-NEIRA (NAE), University of Central Florida
CONRAD J. GRANT, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
JAMES L. KINTER, George Mason University
RUBY LEUNG (NAE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
PARVIZ MOIN (NAS/NAE), Stanford University
LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO (NAM), Yale University
COLIN J. PARRIS (NAE), GE Vernova Digital
IRENE QUALTERS, Los Alamos National Laboratory
INES THIELE, University of Galway
CONRAD TUCKER, Carnegie Mellon University
REBECCA WILLETT, The University of Chicago
XINYUE YE, Texas A&M University
Staff
BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Program Officer, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics (BMSA), Study Director
KAVITA BERGER, Director, Board on Life Sciences
ELIZABETH T. CADY, Senior Program Officer, National Academy of Engineering
JON EISENBERG, Director, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB)
SAMANTHA KORETSKY, Research Assistant, BMSA
PADMA LIM, College Student Intern, BMSA
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Senior Finance Business Partner
THO NGUYEN, Senior Program Officer, CSTB
JOE PALMER, Senior Project Assistant, BMSA
PATRICIA RAZAFINDRAMBININA, Associate Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (until April 2023)
BLAKE REICHMUTH, Associate Program Officer, BMSA
MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Director, BMSA
ERIK SVEDBERG, Scholar, National Materials and Manufacturing Board
NNEKA UDEAGBALA, Associate Program Officer, CSTB
BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND ANALYTICS
MARK L. GREEN, University of California, Los Angeles, Co-Chair
KAREN E. WILLCOX (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin, Co-Chair
HÉLÈNE BARCELO, Mathematical Sciences Research Institute
BONNIE BERGER (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
RUSSEL E. CAFLISCH (NAS), New York University
DAVID S.C. CHU, Institute for Defense Analyses
DUANE COOPER, Morehouse College
JAMES H. CURRY, University of Colorado Boulder
RONALD D. FRICKER, JR., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
JULIE IVY, North Carolina State University
LYDIA E. KAVRAKI (NAM), Rice University
TAMARA G. KOLDA (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories
PETROS KOUMOUTSAKOS (NAE), Harvard University
RACHEL KUSKE, Georgia Institute of Technology
YANN A. LECUN (NAS/NAE), Facebook
JILL C. PIPHER, Brown University
YORAM SINGER, WorldQuant
TATIANA TORO, University of Washington
JUDY WALKER, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
LANCE A. WALLER, Emory University
Staff
MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Director
SAMANTHA KORETSKY, Research Assistant
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Senior Finance Business Partner
JOE PALMER, Senior Project Assistant
BLAKE REICHMUTH, Associate Program Officer
BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Program Officer
COMMITTEE ON APPLIED AND THEORETICAL STATISTICS
ELIZABETH A. STUART, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Co-Chair
LANCE A. WALLER, Emory University, Co-Chair
FREDERICK D. BOWMAN (NAM), University of Michigan
WEI CHEN (NAE), Northwestern University
OMAR GHATTAS, The University of Texas at Austin
OFER HAREL, University of Connecticut
TIM HESTERBERG, Instacart
REBECCA A. HUBBARD, University of Pennsylvania
KRISTIN LAUTER, Meta
MIGUEL MARINO (NAM), Oregon Health & Science University
XIAO-LI MENG, Harvard University
BHRAMAR MUKHERJEE (NAM), University of Michigan
RAQUEL PRADO, University of California, Santa Cruz
KIMBERLY FLAGG SELLERS, North Carolina State University
PIYUSHIMITA THAKURIAH, Rutgers University
BRANI VIDAKOVIC, Texas A&M University
JONATHAN WAKEFIELD, University of Washington
YAZHEN WANG, University of Wisconsin–Madison
ALYSON G. WILSON, North Carolina State University
Staff
BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Director
SAMANTHA KORETSKY, Research Assistant
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Senior Finance Business Partner
JOE PALMER, Senior Project Assistant
BLAKE REICHMUTH, Associate Program Officer
MICHELLE SCHWALBE, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics
COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD
LAURA M. HAAS (NAE), University of Massachusetts Amherst, Chair
DAVID E. CULLER (NAE), University of California, Berkeley
ERIC HORVITZ (NAE), Microsoft Research Lab–Redmond
CHARLES ISBELL, Georgia Institute of Technology
ELIZABETH MYNATT, Georgia Institute of Technology
CRAIG PARTRIDGE, BBN Corporation
DANIELA RUS (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
FRED B. SCHNEIDER (NAE), Cornell University
MARGO I. SELTZER (NAE), University of British Columbia
NAMBIRAJAN SESHADRI (NAE), University of California, San Diego
MOSHE Y. VARDI (NAS/NAE), Rice University
Staff
JON EISENBERG, Senior Board Director
SHENAE BRADLEY, Administrative Assistant
RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager
THO NGUYEN, Senior Program Officer
GABRIELLE RISICA, Program Officer
BRENDAN ROACH, Program Officer
NNEKA UDEAGBALA, Associate Program Officer
BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES
ANN M. ARVIN (NAM), Stanford University, Chair
BARBARA A. SCHAAL (NAS),1 Washington University in St. Louis, Chair
A. ALONSO AGUIRRE,1 George Mason University
DENISE N. BAKEN, Shield Analysis Technology, LLC
VALERIE H. BONHAM, Kennedy Krieger Institute
PATRICK M. BOYLE, Ginkgo Bioworks, Inc.
DOMINIQUE BROSSARD, University of Wisconsin–Madison
SCOTT V. EDWARDS (NAS),1 Harvard University
GERALD L. EPSTEIN, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
ROBERT J. FULL,1 University of California, Berkeley
BERONDA MONTGOMERY, Michigan State University
LOUIS J. MUGLIA (NAM), Burroughs Wellcome Fund
ROBERT NEWMAN, Aspen Institute
LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO (NAM), Yale University
SUDIP S. PARIKH, American Association for the Advancement of Science
NATHAN D. PRICE, Institute for Systems Biology
SUSAN R. SINGER, St. Olaf College
DAVID R. WALT, Harvard Medical School
PHYLLIS M. WISE (NAM), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Staff
KAVITA M. BERGER, Director
ANDREW BREMER, Program Officer
NANCY CONNELL, Senior Scientist
JESSICA DE MOUY, Research Associate
CYNTHIA GETNER, Senior Financial Business Partner
LYLY LUHACHACK, Program Officer
DASIA MCKOY, Program Assistant
STEVEN MOSS, Senior Program Officer
CHRISTL SAUNDERS, Program Coordinator
AUDREY THEVENON, Senior Program Officer
TRISHA TUCHOLSKI, Associate Program Officer
SABINA VADNAIS, Research Associate
NAM VU, Program Assistant
___________________
1 Committee membership term ended on June 30, 2023.
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
MARY GLACKIN, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Chair
CYNTHIA S. ATHERTON, Heising-Simons Foundation
ELIZABETH A. BARNES, Colorado State University
BRAD R. COLMAN, The Climate Corporation
BARTHOLOMEW E. CROES, California Air Resources Board
NEIL DONAHUE, Carnegie Mellon University
ROBERT B. DUNBAR, Stanford University
LESLEY-ANN DUPIGNY-GIROUX, University of Vermont
EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU (NAE), University of California, Irvine
PETER C. FRUMHOFF, Harvard University
ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University
RUBY LEUNG (NAE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
ZHANQING LI, University of Maryland
JONATHAN MARTIN, University of Wisconsin–Madison
AMY MCGOVERN, Oklahoma State University
LINDA O. MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research
JONATHAN A. PATZ (NAM), University of Wisconsin–Madison
J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD (NAS/NAE), University of Georgia
DAVID W. TITLEY, The Pennsylvania State University
ARADHNA TRIPATI, University of California, Los Angeles
ELKE U. WEBER (NAS), Princeton University
Staff
STEVEN STICHTER, Interim Board Director
KYLE ALDRIDGE, Senior Program Assistant
APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
KATRINA HUI, Associate Program Officer
BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Associate Program Officer
APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer
AMY MITSUMORI, Research Associate
LINDSAY MOLLER, Senior Program Assistant
MORGAN MONZ, Associate Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Officer
PATRICIA RAZAFINDRAMBININA, Associate Program Officer (until April 2023)
ALEX REICH, Program Officer
RACHEL SANCHEZ, Program Assistant
RACHEL SILVERN, Program Officer
HUGH WALPOLE, Associate Program Officer
Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review
of this report was overseen by ALICIA L. CARRIQUIRY (NAM), Iowa State University, and ROBERT F. SPROULL (NAE), University of Massachusetts Amherst. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to the many scholars and leaders who contributed their time and expertise to the committee’s information-gathering efforts. Special thanks go to all the speakers who briefed the committee: Chaitanya Baru, National Science Foundation; Tim Booher, Boeing; Steve Dennis, International Computer Science Institute; Alberto Ferrari, RTX; Omar Ghattas, The University of Texas at Austin; Mark Girolami, The Alan Turing Institute; Philip Huff, University of Arkansas at Little Rock; George Karniadakis, Brown University; Michael Mahoney, University of California, Berkeley; Johannes Royset, Naval Postgraduate School; Lea Shanley, International Computer Science Institute; and Jack Wells, NVIDIA.
We are equally appreciative of all the panelists and speakers in our workshop series.
- Workshop on Opportunities and Challenges for Digital Twins in Biomedical Sciences: Bissan Al-Lazikani, MD Anderson Cancer Center; Rommie Amaro, University of California, San Diego; Gary An, University of Vermont; Aldo Badano, Food and Drug Administration; Mikael Benson, Karolinska Institute; Todd Coleman, Stanford University; Heiko Enderling, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center; Liesbet Geris, University of Liège; James A. Glazier, Indiana University; Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer, University of Colorado Denver; Petros Koumoutsakos, Harvard University; Reinhard Laubenbacher, University of Florida; Lara Mangravite, HI-Bio; David Miller, Unlearn.AI; Juan Perilla, University of Delaware; Jodyn Platt, University of Michigan; Nathan Price, Thorne HealthTech; Jeffrey R. Sachs, Merck & Co., Inc.; Karissa Sanbonmatsu, Los Alamos
- National Laboratory; and Tom Yankeelov, The University of Texas at Austin.
- Workshop on Digital Twins in Atmospheric, Climate, and Sustainability Science: Anima Anandkumar, California Institute of Technology; Mark Asch, Sandia National Laboratories; Venkatramani Balaji, Schmidt Futures; Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State University; Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington; Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Brown University; Omar Ghattas, The University of Texas at Austin; Mike Goodchild, University of California, Santa Barbara; John Harlim, The Pennsylvania State University; Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan; Jean-Francois Lamarque, McKinsey; Amy McGovern, University of Oklahoma; Anna Michalak, Carnegie Institution for Science; Umberto Modigliani, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Mike Pritchard, NVIDIA/University of California, Irvine; Abhinav Saxena, GE Research; Gavin A. Schmidt, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology; Mark Taylor, Sandia National Laboratories; and Yuyu Zhou, Iowa State University.
- Workshop on Opportunities and Challenges for Digital Twins in Engineering: Elizabeth Baron, Unity Technologies; Grace Bochenek, University of Central Florida; José R. Celaya, Schlumberger; Dinakar Deshmukh, General Electric; Karthik Duraisamy, University of Michigan; Charles Farrar, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Devin Francom, Los Alamos National Laboratory; S. Michael Gahn, Rolls-Royce; Michael Grieves, Digital Twin Institute; Devin Harris, University of Virginia; and Pamela Kobryn, Department of Defense.
These workshops and this report were the products of the committee’s thoughtful deliberation and dedication to the topic. We extend our gratitude to the broader community for their engagement with this project. Finally, we appreciate the collaborative efforts of every member of the staff team.
Contents
3 VIRTUAL REPRESENTATION: FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
4 THE PHYSICAL COUNTERPART: FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
5 FEEDBACK FLOW FROM PHYSICAL TO VIRTUAL: FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
6 FEEDBACK FLOW FROM VIRTUAL TO PHYSICAL: FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
