Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (2023)

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2023 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1014 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Maria Pena Vaishali Shah Charles Moser AEM Corporation Herndon, VA Mara K. Campbell Jacobs Dallas, TX Suseel Indrakanti Cambridge Systematics Bethesda, MD Subscriber Categories Operations and Trafc Management • Planning and Forecasting • Security and Emergencies Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Ofcials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agree- ment No. 693JJ31950003. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs iden- tified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1014 Project 23-09 ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-68775-1 Library of Congress Control Number 2023930457 © 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or speci- fications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

e National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. e National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. e National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. e three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. e National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. e Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. e mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. e Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. e program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1014 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Sid Mohan, Associate Program Manager, Implementation and Technology Transfer, National Cooperative Highway Research Program David M. Jared, Senior Program Officer Mazen Alsharif, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Kami Cabral, Editor NCHRP PROJECT 23-09 PANEL Field of Administration—Area of Agency Administration Jean M. Wallace, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul, MN (Chair) Nathan Lee, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City, UT Travis McGrath, Foth Infrastructure and Environmental, De Pere, WI Matthew Daniel Needham, Georgia Department of Transportation, Atlanta, GA James T. Pappas, Delaware Department of Transportation, Dover, DE Karuna R. Pujara, ATCS, PLC, Timonium, MD Christopher Schmidt, Illinois Department of Transportation, Springfield, IL Todd R. Sears, Vermont Agency of Transportation, Barre, VT Elizabeth Habic, FHWA Liaison Matthew H. Hardy, AASHTO Liaison

NCHRP Research Report 1014: Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All- Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis presents a research roadmap to develop a comprehen- sive manual, tools, training, and implementation guidelines for quantitative risk and resilience assessment that satisfies new federal requirements. The roadmap will be of interest to state departments of transportation (DOTs) seeking a consistent approach to risk and resilience assessments, economic analysis, project prioritization, and performance manage- ment that more efficiently uses available funds. This information will further the preparedness of the transportation sector for emerging threats and enable state DOTs to communicate risk and make the business case for resilience investments in the face of uncertainty. Transportation agencies are responsible for the highway system and the delivery of a range of services and functions to support the management of that system. There are inherent risks involved with the management of the system, including aging infrastructure and fiscally con- strained resources. Many agencies are moving toward performance-based resource allocation while simultaneously recognizing risks that may undermine their strategic goals. As these risks affect every component of a highway system, accurately accounting for and addressing these risks within a transportation agency’s enterprise-wide management program is a goal that currently lacks analysis tools. Also, state DOTs are required to develop a process for quantifying annual risk to increase their system resilience as part of the Infrastructure Invest- ment and Jobs Act (IIJA) also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). The purpose of this study was to establish an understanding of the research required to establish quantitative methods to support all-hazards risk and resilience analysis for the high- way system. Under NCHRP Project 23-09, “Scoping Study to Develop the Basis for a Highway Standard to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis,” Applied Engineering Management (AEM) was asked to (1) develop a comprehensive and consistent set of risk- and resilience-related terminology for transportation agency use, and (2) provide a research road- map for developing a framework for a quantitative all-hazards risk and resilience analysis of transportation assets, with its associated tools, and guidance on its application. In addition to NCHRP Research Report 1014, the following three deliverables are avail- able on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org) by searching for NCHRP Research Report 1014: • An implementation and communications plan that identifies mechanisms and channels for communicating and implementing this research; • A flyer summarizing the project background, accomplishments, and benefits; and • A PowerPoint presentation introducing NCHRP Research Report 1014. F O R E W O R D By David M. Jared Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

1 Summary 3 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Background 4 1.2 Research Objectives 4 1.3 Organization of Report 6 Chapter 2 State-of-Practice Review 6 2.1 Glossary of Terms 6 2.2 Literature Review 7 2.3 Gap Assessment 8 2.4 Stakeholder Engagement 11 Chapter 3 Risk and Resilience Framework 11 3.1 Organization 12 3.2 Scoping 13 3.3 Assessment 14 3.4 Management 15 Chapter 4 Roadmap 15 4.1 Roadmap Mission 15 4.2 Roadmap Goals 16 4.3 Roadmap Thematic Lanes 17 4.4 Roadmap Phases and Duration 21 Chapter 5 Research Problem Statement Development 25 Chapter 6 Stakeholder Engagement 27 Chapter 7 Research Outputs, Recommendations, and Next Steps 27 7.1 Research Outputs 27 7.2 Findings and Recommendations 28 7.3 Opportunities for Implementation 29 7.4 Next Steps 30 Chapter 8 Conclusion 31 References A-1 Appendix A Glossary of Terms B-1 Appendix B Literature Review C-1 Appendix C Gap Assessment C O N T E N T S

D-1 Appendix D Research Problem Statements E-1 Appendix E Technical Memorandum—Stakeholder Engagement Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at nap.nationalacademies.org) retains the color versions.