Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (2023)

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1   Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Transportation owners and operators are responsible for the highway system and the delivery of a range of services and functions through the system’s management. There are inherent risks involved with management of the highway system, including aging infrastruc- ture and fiscally constrained resources. Many agencies are moving toward performance-based resource allocation while recognizing risks that may undermine their strategic goals. As these risks affect every component of the highway system to a greater or lesser extent, accurately accounting for and addressing these risks within a highway agency’s enterprise-wide manage- ment program are goals that currently lack analysis tools. Investing in risk and resilience strategies and enhanced recovery to reduce or eliminate the impact of external events is also paramount to ensure a thriving, viable transportation system. Risk management requires the identification and assessment of potential threats, hazards, and vulnerabilities; the evaluation of potential mitigation actions to reduce risk; clear and easy implementation of a process to prioritize mitigation activities; and investment that aligns with agency strategic and performance goals. Asset management and performance management have been topics of many research efforts. In addition, transportation agencies currently have to meet federal regulations, including MAP-21, FHWA 5520, and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), that require the incorporation of risk and resilience into their activities. However, guidance for analytical risk assessment methods to support risk-based processes is lagging. Risk assessment processes, methods, and tools are needed to integrate risk management into asset and performance management systems. Also needed is a clear understanding of the relationship between risks and system resilience. This project provides an understanding of the research required to establish quantitative methods to support all-hazards risk and resilience analysis for the highway system. In Phase I of the project, the research team performed an extensive literature review of domestic and international sources, developed a glossary of terms (focused on risk and resilience) of highway assets, and conducted a gap assessment of the state of practice on the topic. The glossary of terms was developed to support a quantitative risk and resilience assess- ment for highway infrastructure. It contains more than 180 terms with definitions drawn from more than 90 sources. The literature review includes an overview of the different risk and resilience policies, definitions, frameworks, metrics, assessment methodologies, and tools currently used domestically and internationally. Using the findings from the literature review, the research team conducted a gap assessment, starting with barriers, limitations, successes, and lessons learned. The gaps were compiled and organized into three categories: processes, technology and tools, and technical capacity S U M M A R Y

2 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis building. These gaps were further validated in stakeholder engagements that included three workshops. The gaps served as the basis for creating the three thematic lanes of the research roadmap and identifying the necessary topics for future research. Phase II of the research project focused on developing a risk and resilience framework, a research roadmap, and associated research problem statements (RPSs) for the develop- ment and implementation of a quantitative Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual for highway assets. The risk and resilience framework was developed after studying multiple risk and resil- ience frameworks during the literature review phase. The risk and resilience framework builds on the most comprehensive and used frameworks, including the AASHTO’s frame- work from the Transportation Management Guide that incorporates risk management into Transportation Management Plans (TAMPs); the FHWA Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework; the risk management framework from the International Organi- zation of Standardization ISO 31000; and the Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) Plus framework among others. The enhanced framework con- sists of four modules: (1) organization, (2) scoping, (3) assessment, and (4) management. Each one of these modules has steps that need to be accomplished. The research team developed the research roadmap using the findings from Phase I and the risk and resilience framework. The roadmap has three thematic lanes identified in the gap assessments and has a total duration of 7 years, including three defined phases and products for each phase. Phase 1 (3-year duration) focuses on the development of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual, Phase 2 (2-year duration) focuses on pilot testing and implementation of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual, and Phase 3 (3-year duration) focuses on the development of tools and revision of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual. The phases have different topics and proposed projects associated with them. The research team proposed 12 RPSs to accomplish the development and implementation of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual and tools. The roadmap and RPSs were validated during a stakeholder engagement and by further interactions with the NCHRP Project 23-09 panel. In addition to the glossary of terms, literature review, gap assessment, risk and resilience framework, research roadmap, and RPSs, the research team developed a technical memo- randum, an implementation and communications plan, and communications material, including a flyer and a PowerPoint presentation summarizing the project. The implemen- tation and communications plan, flyer, and slide presentation are available on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org) by searching for NCHRP Research Report 1014. The work under NCHRP Project 23-09, “Scoping Study to Develop the Basis for a High- way Standard to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis,” identified the key areas that need the most attention for developing quantitative risk and resilience method- ologies and tools for highways and steps for their successful implementation within trans- portation agencies.