Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (2023)

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3   C H A P T E R 1 This report details the research conducted under NCHRP Project 23-09, “Scoping Study to Develop the Basis for a Highway Standard to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis.” It contains findings from the two phases of the project. Phase I involved the following activities: • Develop a robust risk and resilience glossary of terms. • Gather information through a comprehensive literature review. • Identify high-priority gaps in the state of practice. • Engage the transportation industry to validate gaps and obtain information for roadmap development. • Develop multiple drafts and high-level roadmap approaches. Phase II involved the following activities: • Develop a risk and resilience framework. • Draft research roadmap options. • Engage the transportation industry to review proposed roadmap options. • Develop RPSs. • Develop a technical memorandum. • Develop communications material. 1.1 Background Recent research has revealed how agencies differ in the ways they incorporate risk and resil- ience analysis into their planning process—in the methodologies they employ (quantitative versus qualitative), the quality of available data, the selection of metrics, the availability and use of tools, and even their understanding of risk and resilience and how they relate to each other. In 2014, the FHWA published Executive Order 5520, encouraging state DOTs, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), and local and tribal agencies to develop strategies to minimize extreme weather and climate change risks and to use the best science and technology available to protect critical infrastructure. In response, transportation agencies drafted risk-based asset management plans and performance-based metrics to assist in planning and prioritizing invest- ments. Nevertheless, transportation professionals have expressed a need for guidance on risk and resilience assessment methodologies, metrics, and tools. On November 15, 2021, President Biden signed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), also known as Bipartisan Infra- structure Law (BIL). The IIJA authorizes about $47 billion for resilience- and climate-related programs. Part of the requirements of IIJA includes establishing an intergovernmental process for risk and system resilience assessment: “USDOT will be required to work with federal, state, Introduction

4 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis and local agencies to develop a process for quantifying annual risk to increase system resilience within the nation’s surface transportation system. USDOT will be instructed to provide guid- ance and technical assistance to state and local agencies on the process” (https://www.naco.org/ resources/legislative-analysis-counties-infrastructure-investment-jobs-act). IIJA authorizes funding for resilience and climate programs to address flood mitigation, cyber, waste manage- ment, flood and wildfire mitigation, drought, and coastal resiliency, ecosystem restoration, heat stress, and weatherization. Further, the bill creates a new Promoting Resilient Operations for Transformative, Efficient, and Cost-saving Transportation (PROTECT) grant program. This program establishes a formula and competitive grant program to help states improve the resil- iency of their transportation systems. Specifically, PROTECT grants “will support planning, resilience improvements, community resilience and evacuation routes, and at-risk coastal infrastructure.” Some specific provisions of IIJA applicable to the highway sector include the following: • The National Highway Performance Program includes funding for resilience improvements for the National Highway System (NHS), including protective features to mitigate cyber risk to the NHS and protective features to mitigate the risk of recurring damage or future repairs from extreme weather, flooding, or other disasters. • Consideration of extreme weather and resilience in life-cycle cost and risk management analysis. • Restoring community connectivity by removing, retrofitting, or mitigating highways or other facilities that create barriers to community connectivity. • The language for emergency repair (ER) funding has been expanded to include wildfire as an eligible disaster and economically justifiable improvements intended to mitigate the risk of recurring damage from extreme weather, flooding, and other natural disasters. NCHRP Project 23-09 comes at an opportune time while the nation is focused on meeting federal requirements and a growing portfolio of emerging threats. The need to improve system resilience from extreme weather events and climate change is called out in FHWA Executive Order 5520. In addition to extreme weather and climate change, transportation agencies encounter a variety of risks, including natural hazards (e.g., flooding, ice storms, climate change, etc.), biological threats (e.g., pandemic), cyberattacks, dependency on other infrastructure types (e.g., electricity, communications, water systems), physical attacks (e.g., terrorism), funding uncertainty, asset deterioration, aging infrastructure, regulatory changes, and political threats among others. NCHRP Project 23-09 sets the groundwork for developing a standardized process to meet these requirements. 1.2 Research Objectives The primary objectives of NCHRP Project 23-09 are to (1) develop a comprehensive and consistent set of risk and resilience terminology and (2) develop a risk and resilience framework and formulate a research roadmap to develop a highway manual that supports quantitative all-hazard risk and resilience assessments for state and local DOTs. NCHRP Project 23-09, in its execution, will facilitate the communication of ideas garnered through the literature review, surveys, and feedback from subject matter experts. 1.3 Organization of Report This report is organized as follows: Chapter 1. Introduction. This chapter introduces the report’s background, objectives, and overview.

Introduction 5 Chapter 2. State-of-Practice Review. This chapter describes the comprehensive glossary of terms related to risk and resilience for highway infrastructure; overview of the risk and resilience definitions, policies, frameworks, assessment methodologies, management, and data needs; gap assessment; and stakeholder engagement conducted to validate the state of practice. The complete glossary of terms is presented in Appendix A. Chapter 3. Risk and Resilience Framework. This chapter presents a comprehensive frame- work for conducting risk and resilience assessment and management. Chapter 4. Roadmap. This chapter provides the proposed research roadmap for developing and implementing a quantitative risk and resilience assessment manual for highway assets. Chapter 5. Research Problem Statement Development. This chapter describes the RPS development process. The RPSs are presented in Appendix D. Chapter 6. Stakeholder Engagement. This chapter presents an overview of the stakeholder engagement, consisting of three workshops, conducted to obtain feedback on the proposed research roadmap and RPSs. Chapter 7. Research Outputs, Recommendations, and Next Steps. This chapter describes all other documentation created as part of the research effort, including the technical memo- randum, implementation and communications plan, PowerPoint presentation, and com- munications material. Chapter 8. Conclusion. This chapter summarizes the key findings based on the literature review, gap assessment, and industry workshops. Appendices A through E. Appendix A: Glossary of Terms; Appendix B: Literature Review; Appendix C: Gap Assessment; Appendix D: Research Problem Statements; and Appen- dix E: Technical Memorandum—Stakeholder Engagement are also included in this report.