Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (2023)

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15   Roadmap Based on the information gathered during the literature review and the stakeholder engage- ments, and on research team experience, the team developed a risk and resilience framework and a research roadmap to develop and implement a highway manual to conduct a quantitative all-hazards risk and resilience analysis. The primary step in developing the roadmap was to define the current state of practice, the mission, and the goals and objectives to be accomplished with the research roadmap. 4.1 Roadmap Mission The research team worked with the NCHRP Project 23-09 panel to create a mission statement for the research roadmap. The main mission of the research roadmap is to “create an efficient framework for state DOTs to implement consistent transportation asset risk and resilience pro- cesses within and among organizations for improved sustainability.” The roadmap provides the necessary structure and steps to develop the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual as well as the steps for successful outreach and implementation. The outreach and implementation steps are as important as those for the development of the manual. Without proper outreach to stakeholders, as well as a comprehensive implementation and communications plan, even the best framework will not be successful among practitioners. 4.2 Roadmap Goals The goal of the risk and resilience roadmap is to provide transportation agencies with a stra- tegic plan consisting of objectives, desired outcomes, and tasks to be performed to advance the preparedness of the transportation sector for emerging threats and increase the resilience of the transportation system. The five goals are defined as follows: 1. Identify organizational development and outreach when implementing a risk and resiliency framework. 2. Define a consistent framework for risk and resilience assessment that identifies core processes and methods. 3. Identify tools to assist with risk and resilience assessments that align with the framework. 4. Identify technical skillsets and training to facilitate the conduct of risk and resiliency analyses. 5. Identify candidate research activities that advance key roadmap elements. C H A P T E R 4

16 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis 4.3 Roadmap Thematic Lanes Based on the literature review, gap assessment, and stakeholder engagements, the research team identified knowledge gaps that were classified into three thematic lanes as follows: • Thematic Lane A. Organizational Development, Outreach, and Implementation • Thematic Lane B. Risk and Resilience Assessment Processes • Thematic Lane C. Technology and Tools Thematic Lane A. Organizational Development, Outreach, and Implementation Thematic Lane A addresses organizational capacity building, institutional, organizational, and procedural (IOP) changes, and communication and collaboration. Capacity building includes actions designed to ensure an organization has a robust training program, guidance, and leadership support. IOP changes involve changing organizational culture from the traditional program- matic approach to incorporating risk-informed decision-making. Communication and collab- oration enhance organizational capacity by sharing data and mustering talent from across the organization. The focus of this thematic lane involves three aspects related to the development, outreach, and implementation of the framework. The factors included in this theme are as follows: • Identify key players to oversee the creation of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual and make sure the steps proposed on the research roadmap are accomplished. The research team recommends the creation of a group or task force to oversee this effort. The task force could be led by the sponsoring TRB Committee on Transportation Asset Management (AJE30) and consist of representatives from other TRB committees interested in this topic, such as the Committee on Critical Transportation Infrastructure Protection (AMR10); Committee on Systems, Enterprise, and Cyber Resilience (AMR40); and Committee on Extreme Weather and Climate Change Adaptation (AMR50). The task force could also be in charge of coordina- tion among different groups working on the various topics proposed in the roadmap. • Develop outreach and communication strategies to help agencies build and sustain rela- tionships with inter- and intra-agency partners to strengthen leadership and organizational buy-in for incorporating resilience into planning and other areas. • Develop a capacity building plan and material to provide the necessary training to leader- ship and staff to promote the institutionalization of risk and resilience education and practices at all levels of a transportation organization. • Identify internal operating procedures that are needed or need improvement and the development of implementation strategies for adoption of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual. • Pilot test and implement the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual with multiple state DOTs to make sure it meets the needs and capabilities of transportation agencies. Thematic Lane B. Risk and Resilience Assessment Processes Whereas Thematic Lane A addresses how organizations can organize, communicate, and boost capacity to conduct risk and resilience assessments, Thematic Lane B discusses the details and methodologies on how to conduct quantitative risk and resilience assessments that are repeat- able and verifiable. Recognizing that the terms risk and resilience have a complementary rela- tionship, Lane B includes separate RPSs for risk assessment and resilience assessment. While risk management tends to focus on mitigating vulnerability (robustness), resilience strategies relate more to adaptability and post-event recovery (i.e., recovery, redundancy, rapidity, and robustness)

Roadmap 17 (Bruneau and Reinhorn 2006). Transportation organizations typically lack sufficient data to derive the necessary inputs for quantitative risk and resilience models (e.g., threat likelihood, threat severity, vulnerability, and consequences). Thus, Lane B also considers tools and meth- odologies for harvesting historical data. Finally, if organizations are to build more resilient systems, they must determine what they are building resilience to—in other words, what is the target? Here, the concept of risk appetite and risk tolerance comes into play. Lane B addresses these concerns with an RPS that focuses on risk thresholds and metrics. The end product of Lane B will be a Highway Risk and Resil- ience (R&R) Manual that explains the methodologies, data needs, and metrics as a result of the research supported by the proposed RPSs. This thematic lane focuses on the development of quantitative methodologies to conduct risk and resilience assessments. The factors included in this theme are as follows: • Develop a process to identify critical highway infrastructure that helps agencies meet their mission and goals. • Develop standardized methodologies to identify potential threats and hazards to the high- way system; assess the vulnerability of highway assets from the identified threats; determine the expected consequences from asset damage and travel disruption; and conduct a complete quantitative risk and resilience analysis. This process will establish a collection of quantitative metrics for both risk and resilience. • Develop a comprehensive data collection plan and process to compile threat, asset, and event data to support and validate the risk and resilience assessments. • Develop a methodology for selection of risk and resilience thresholds and selection of mitigation strategies to aid in project prioritization and incorporate risk and resilience into decision-making. Thematic Lane C. Technology and Tools Thematic Lane C facilitates the implementation of Lane A and Lane B, providing transpor- tation organizations with a list of publicly available tools as well as newly developed tools to facilitate and fulfill the need of conducting quantitative risk and resilience assessments that are repeatable and verifiable. The focus of Thematic Lane C involves the identification, development, and promotion of the efficient application of risk and resilience analysis methodologies using the tools that facilitate the incorporation of risk and resilience analysis into decision-making, resilience programs, and project design. These tools should (a) be easy to use and (b) integrate into existing technologies and tools. The private and public sectors offer many tools and methodologies for conducting risk and resilience analysis. This presents challenges to transportation agencies (e.g., the appropriate tool, the required level of training or expertise, what data is needed, and the available data sources). Agencies comment that the tools currently available are too complex or require too much data too often. 4.4 Roadmap Phases and Duration In addition to the selection and development of the three thematic lanes, the research team also selected the most appropriate duration for the research roadmap to successfully develop and adopt the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual. The research roadmap is divided into three phases: • Phase 1—Develop the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual. • Phase 2—Pilot test and implement the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual. • Phase 3—Develop tools and revise the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual.

18 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Phase 1—Develop the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual The first phase of the research roadmap has an approximate duration of 3 years. Phase 1 focuses on identifying the key players or task force that will oversee the development and imple- mentation of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual, the development of methodolo- gies to conduct the quantitative risk and resilience assessments for highway infrastructure, and the development of a data capture process and threshold methodology. Phase 1 outcomes include the following: • Taskforce to oversee the development of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual methodologies, tools, training, communication, and implementation • First version of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual Phase 2—Pilot Test and Implement the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual Phase 2 of the research roadmap has an approximate duration of 2 years. In this phase, the focus is to pilot test the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual and methodologies devel- oped in Phase 1 with multiple state DOTs. In addition, communication and collaboration prac- tices will be developed, along with the capacity building plan and training material based on the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual. Moreover, changes in IOP will be identified to develop strategies for successfully implementing the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual in different agency areas. Phase 2 outcomes include the following: • Pilot test of the first version of the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual and develop recommendations for improvement and revisions • Training material for transportation agencies on how to use the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual • Communication and collaboration guidance to incorporate risk and resilience into agency practices and decision-making • Suggestions for identifying IOP changes for risk and resilience implementation Phase 3—Develop Tools and Revise the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual This phase also has a duration of 2 years. After pilot testing the Manual in Phase 2, the focus of this phase will be to incorporate any changes identified during the pilots into the Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual and to develop tools to conduct quantitative risk and resilience assessments. These tools should be easy to use, make use of available data, and be easily incor- porated into existing processes and tools (e.g., TAM tools). In addition, the capacity building plan and training material developed in Phase 2 should be expanded to incorporate the use of risk and resilience assessment tools. The proposed research roadmap developed in this project is presented in Figure 4-1. To accomplish the goals of these phases, multiple RPSs were developed. Descriptions of the RPSs are provided in Chapter 5 and Appendix D. Each phase has multiple RPSs associated with it. The research team recommends bundling the projects in each phase as one large project or multiple dependent and coordinated

AD O PT IO N O F HI G HW AY R IS K AN D RE SI LI EN CE (R &R ) M AN UA LA. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, OUTREACH, AND IMPLEMENTATION B. RISK & RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT PROCESSES C. TECHNOLOGY & TOOLS Note: RPS titles are abbreviated versions of the full titles. Figure 4-1. RFP bundling recommendations for the research roadmap.

20 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis projects. Bundling projects will increase feasibility and coordination to avoid discrepancies in methodologies and delays in project development. The proposed bundling is also presented in Figure 4-1. Phase 3 outcomes include the following: • Revised Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual • Risk and resilience tools • Enhanced training material for Highway Risk and Resilience (R&R) Manual and tools