State Transportation Agency Decision-Making for System Performance: Practitioner’s Playbook (2023)

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2023 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1042 State Transportation Agency Decision-Making for System Performance PRACTITIONER’S PLAYBOOK Tony Furst Matt Miller David Prott Metro Analytics, LLC Huntersville, NC William Robert Perry Lubin Spy Pond Partners, LLC Arlington, MA Chris Francis Robert McQueen Marlin Engineering Tallahassee, FL Gadi Sneh Mobility Insight Kfar Saba, Israel Subscriber Categories Highways • Administration and Management Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Ofcials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agree- ment No. 693JJ31950003. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs iden- tified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1042 Project 20-126(02) ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-69857-3 Library of Congress Control Number 2023936166 © 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or spec- ifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

e National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. e National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. e National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. e three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. e National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. e Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. e mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. e Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. e program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1042 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Deborah Irvin, Program Coordinator Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications NCHRP PROJECT 20-126(02) PANEL Field of Special Projects Robert L. Sack, Burnt Hills, NY (Chair) James Darryll Dockstader, Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee, FL Cameron T. Kergaye, Utah Department of Transportation, Holladay, UT Timothy McDowell, Cheyenne, WY John C. Milton, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, WA Dale Peabody, Maine Department of Transportation, Augusta, ME Jean M. Wallace, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul, MN Kimberly L. Webb, Michigan Department of Transportation (retired), Southfield, MI Stephen Woelfel, Massachusetts Department of Transportation, Boston, MA Richard Y. Woo, Maryland Department of Transportation, Baltimore, MD Ben Hawkinson, FHWA Liaison King W. Gee, AASHTO Liaison

NCHRP Research Report 1042 presents an analytic framework for transportation agencies to employ to improve their ability to integrate critical issues into their decisions about system performance. It provides an interactive visualization tool that depicts the relationships among trends, issues, and system objectives. For the research, the visualization tool depicts the relationships at the national level, but it can be adapted by the user to local or regional dynamics. This report will be of immediate interest to state transportation agency decision makers as they seek to continually improve system performance and future planning in light of current issues and future trends they are facing. In 2019, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) published two reports (Special Report 329: Renewing the National Commitment to the Interstate Highway System: A Foundation for the Future and Critical Issues in Transportation 2019) that presented data and perspectives on wide-ranging matters of importance to the future of the nation’s transportation system and its capabilities to support the nation’s continued prosperity and quality of life. Research was needed to develop a framework and guidelines that agencies could use to consider critical issues in their system-management decision-making. These critical issues are not uniform across the nation. They are influenced by the geographic, demographic, economic, social, and political character of each state or multistate region and by recent experience with public health, climatic, and other events that influence demand for and use of transportation systems and services. Under NCHRP Project 20-126(02), “State Transportation Agency Multifaceted Decision- Making for Future System Performance,” Metro Analytics was asked to develop and present an analytical framework and guidelines for understanding the relationships that the issues presented in the two TRB reports as well as those identified by the research team have on system performance objectives. This framework provides an interactive visualization tool to explore these relationships and a methodology to adjust the relationships to local, state, or regional dynamics. It supports multifaceted decision-making as state transportation agencies fulfill their missions to ensure that future system performance supports our nation’s prosperity and well-being. In addition to the Practitioner’s Playbook published as NCHRP Research Report 1042, three deliverables that support its implementation are available on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org) by searching on NCHRP Research Report 1042: State Transportation Agency Decision-Making for System Performance: Practitioner’s Playbook: • NCHRP Web-Only Document 345: State Agency Decision-Making for System Performance: Conduct of Research Report documenting the entire research effort, including the results F O R E W O R D By Waseem Dekelbab Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

of pilot studies that use emerging data and analytic processes to improve system perfor- mance measures. • An interactive and adaptable visualization tool that supports the evaluation of trends and issues on system performance objectives and is designed to be used in concert with both NCHRP Web-Only Document 345 and NCHRP Research Report 1042. • An Implementation Plan Technical Memorandum.

1 Introduction 2 An Analytic Framework 2 An Analytic Framework Applied to Transportation System Pressures 7 Establishing the Relationships 10 The Visualization Tool 18 Applying the Analytic Framework 20 Identify Key Focal Areas 21 Multijurisdictional Environment 21 Scenario Planning 22 Enterprise Risk Management 22 Right-Sizing 23 Play 1: Applying the Analytic Framework—A Conversation About Focal Areas 23 Single Objective 32 Multiple Objectives 37 Play 2: Applying the Analytic Framework—Multijurisdictional Decision-Making 37 Using the Framework in a Multijurisdictional Setting 45 Play 3: Applying the Analytic Framework—Scenario Planning 49 Play 4: Applying the Analytic Framework—Enterprise Risk Management 53 Play 5: Emerging Data and Analytic Capacity 55 Pilot Studies 59 Lessons Learned 62 Play 6: Applying the Analytic Framework—Adjusting the Relationships 62 Using the Delphi Method 64 Areas for Consideration in Adjusting the Relationships 67 References C O N T E N T S