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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27160.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research Committee on Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Ocean Studies Board Polar Research Board Division on Earth and Life Studies Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPY

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27160 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27160. PREPUBLICATION COPY

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY

COMMITTEE ON FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR SOUTHERN OCEAN AND ANTARCTIC NEARSHORE AND COASTAL RESEARCH PAULA BONTEMPI (Co-chair), University of Rhode Island ALAN MIX (Co-chair), Oregon State University KIM S. BERNARD, Oregon State University EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DANIEL P. COSTA, University of California, Santa Cruz JAMIN S. GREENBAUM, Scripps Institution of Oceanography YING-TSONG LIN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution HEATHER JOAN LYNCH, Stony Brook University W. BERRY LYONS, The Ohio State University EDWARD (TED) MAKYSM, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution JILL MIKUCKI, University of Tennessee, Knoxville WEISEN SHEN, Stony Brook University ANDREW F. THOMPSON, California Institute of Technology Staff MARGO REGIER, Study Director DEBORAH GLICKSON, Director, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources SUSAN ROBERTS, Director, Ocean Studies Board APRIL MELVIN, Acting Director, Polar Research Board CAROLINE BELL, Associate Program Officer MORGAN DISBROW-MONZ, Associate Program Officer MILES LANSING, Senior Program Assistant PREPUBLICATION COPY v

Reviewers This consensus study report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: RICHARD ALLEY, Pennsylvania State University BRUCE APPELGATE, University of California San Diego MARK D. BEHN, Boston College DAVID DENLINGER, The Ohio State University THOMAS DESVIGNES, University of Oregon ROBERT DUNBAR, Stanford University ALEXANDER FORREST, University of California Davis ALASTAIR GRAHAM, University of South Florida MONG-HAN HUANG, University of Maryland ERIN PETIT, Oregon State University AMELIA SHEVENELL, University of South Florida SHARON STAMMERJOHN, University of Colorado Boulder MARTYN TRANTER, Aarhus University Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by DAVE KARL, University of Hawai’i, and JEFFREY SEVERINGHAUS, University of California, San Diego. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. PREPUBLICATION COPY vii

Acknowledgments Many individuals assisted the committee in creating this report. The committee would like to thank the following people who gave presentations and participated in panel discussions. David Ainley, H. T. Harvey & Associates Ecological Consultants Philip Baxa, U.S. Coast Guard Jim Bellingham, Johns Hopkins University Samuel Blasé, U.S. Coast Guard Stefanie Brachfeld, Montclair State University Debbie Bronk, University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System Edward Brook, Oregon State University Natalya Gomez, McGill University Sean Gulick, The University of Texas at Austin Alexander Haumann, Alfred Wegener Institute Jon Hawkings, University of Pennsylvania Jordy Hendrikx, Antarctica New Zealand Eileen Hofmann, Old Dominion University Adrian Jenkins, Northumbria University Sarah Kapnick, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jack Kaye, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lisa Kelley, International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators Amy Leventer, Antarctic Research Vessel Science Advisory Subcommittee Larry Mayer, University of New Hampshire Alison Murray, Desert Research Institute Tim Naish, Instabilities and Thresholds in Antarctica Peter Neff, University of Minnesota Leonard Pace, Schmidt Ocean Institute Kurt Panter, Bowling Green State University Sarah Purkey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Sidney Rasbury Hemming, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Sharon Robinson, Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future Doug Russel, University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System Won Sang Lee, Korea Polar Research Institute Ted Scambos, University of Colorado Boulder Britney Schmidt, Cornell University Oscar Schofield, Rutgers University Amelia Shevenell, University of South Florida Christine Siddoway, Colorado College Matthew Siegfried, Colorado School of Mines Sharon Stammerjohn, University of Colorado Boulder David Titley, The Pennsylvania State University Tas van Ommen, International Collaboration for Exploration of the Cryosphere through Aerogeophysical Profiling Maureen Walczak, Oregon State University PREPUBLICATION COPY ix

x Acknowledgments Timothy Walsh, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Julia Wellner, University of Houston Douglas Wiens, Washington University in St. Louis Patricia Yager, University of Georgia Christopher Zappa, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory PREPUBLICATION COPY

Contents SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 1 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................... 11 Committee’s Task and Approach, 12 Outline of Report, 14 2 THE NATIONAL ANTARCTIC PROGRAM........................................................................................ 16 Office of Polar Programs and U.S. Antarctic Program, 16 International Collaboration, 24 3 THE IMPACT OF ANTARCTICA AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ON GLOBAL SEA LEVEL ............................................................................................................................. 26 How Much and How Fast Will Ocean Warming Raise Sea Level?, 31 How Much and How Fast Will Atmospheric Warming Raise Sea Level?, 36 How will Floating Ice Processes Impact the Rate of Ice Sheet Loss?, 38 Will Grounding Zone Instabilities Create Tipping Points of Irreversible Ice Loss?, 40 Will Geological and Geophysical Properties and Processes Exacerbate or Moderate Sea Level Rise?, 43 Conclusions, 49 4 THE IMPACT OF SOUTHERN OCEAN CIRCULATION AND AIR–SEA EXCHANGE ON GLOBAL HEAT AND CARBON BUDGETS ................................................................................. 53 What Determines the Net Uptake and Release of CO2 in the Southern Ocean and How Will it Change in the Future?, 57 What are the Key Temporal and Spatial Scales of Upper-Ocean Processes that Influence Air–Sea Exchange?, 59 What are the Pathways of Ocean Heat and Biogeochemical Properties between the Open Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Coast?, 60 How Can Understanding Past Changes in the Southern Ocean Heat and CO2 Budgets Elucidate the Future?, 63 What Processes will Impact Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Thickness on Decadal Timescales?, 65 Conclusions, 69 5 THE IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ON ANTARCTIC AND SOUTHERN OCEAN BIOTA AND THEIR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ................................................................... 72 What are the Feedbacks between Changing Ecosystems and Biogeochemistry that Drive the Carbon Cycle?, 74 How have Biota Adapted and Evolved, and what is their Resilience to Change?, 80 How Can the Study of Global Connections and Ecosystem Services Inform Evidence-Based Conservation and Management?, 88 Conclusions, 95 6 ESSENTIAL CAPABILITIES.................................................................................................................. 99 Vessel Capabilities, 99 Tools and Technology, 120 Approaches, 134 Conclusions and Recommendations, 139 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................... 144 PREPUBLICATION COPY xi

xii Contents APPENDIXES A COMMITTEE MEMBER AND STAFF BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES ........................................ 195 B CAPABILITIES OF POTENTIAL PARTNERS’ VESSELS .............................................................. 201 PREPUBLICATION COPY

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Antarctica hosts some of the harshest and most remote environments on Earth - and it is a region of vital importance for scientific research. The environment and position of Antarctica on the globe mean that research conducted there can offer unique insights on important Earth processes, including rising sea level, the carbon cycle, ecosystem structure. As the climate warms, data gathered from Antarctic research will be essential to understanding how Earth processes are changing and the potential social, economic, and health impacts on both U.S. and global populations.

This report identifies the highest priorities for research in the Southern Ocean and nearshore and coastal Antarctica, as well as gaps in current capabilities to support this research. Global sea level rise, heat and carbon budgets, and changing ecosystems are the three highest-priority science drivers for research in the region. To address those drivers and maintain a robust U.S. research presence in this vitally important region, investments are needed in the U.S. Antarctic program and its research platforms, including the development of new technologies and the replacement of aging icebreaking research vessels. Additionally, the U.S. should strengthen relationships with other nations’ Antarctic programs that can help support these essential science drivers.

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