CLIMATE SECURITY IN
CENTRAL AMERICA

PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP

_____

Apurva Dave, Hannah Stewart, and Adrian Wolfberg, Rapporteurs

Climate Security Roundtable

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies

Intelligence Community Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-70817-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-70817-6
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27203

This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America.

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Climate Security in Central America: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27203.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR CLIMATE SECURITY IN CENTRAL AMERICA: A WORKSHOP

BRIAN O’NEILL (Chair), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

JEFFREY ANCHUKAITIS, Defense Intelligence Agency

ANJULI BAMZAI, National Science Foundation

ANA BARROS, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

DAVID HOLIDAY, Open Society Foundations

MAUREEN LICHTVELD, University of Pittsburgh

ERIC L. OLSON, Seattle International Foundation

CLIMATE SECURITY ROUNDTABLE

BARBARA SCHAAL (Co-chair),¹ Washington University in Saint Louis

KAREN SETO (Co-chair),² Yale University

ANA BARROS,³ University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

MORGAN BAZILIAN, Colorado School of Mines

TEGAN BLAINE, U.S. Institute of Peace

NADYA BLISS, Arizona State University

CASEY BROWN, University of Massachusetts Amherst

EDWARD CARR, Clark University

KRISTIE EBI, University of Washington

MELISSA HO, World Wildlife Fund

SHEILA JASANOFF, Harvard University

MAUREEN LICHTVELD,⁴ University of Pittsburgh

SUSAN LOZIER, Georgia Institute of Technology

KATHARINE MACH, University of Miami

ANJALI MAHENDRA, World Resources Institute

GALEN MCKINLEY, Columbia University

VERNON MORRIS, Arizona State University

RICHARD NEWELL, Resources for the Future

BRIAN O’NEILL, Joint Global Research Institute

JULIE PULLEN, Propeller Ventures

AARON SALZBERG, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

SHERI WEISER, University of California, San Francisco

___________________

¹ Elected member, National Academy of Sciences.

² Elected member, National Academy of Medicine.

³ Elected member, National Academy of Engineering.

⁴ Elected member, National Academy of Medicine.

Members Ex Officio—Representatives of

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (Office of Science)

DEPARTMENT OF STATE

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL-INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH

OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

NATIONAL ACADEMIES STAFF

Climate Security Roundtable Staff

APURVA DAVE (Responsible Staff Officer), Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies

KYLE ALDRIDGE, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies

HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

ADRIAN WOLFBERG, Senior Program Officer, Intelligence Community Studies Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Reviewers

This proceedings of a workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by CYNTHIA BEALL (NAS), Case Western Reserve University, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the National Academies.

This page intentionally left blank.

Acknowledgments

The National Academies Division on Earth and Life Studies expresses our sincere gratitude to the following individuals and organizations: to our planning committee members, for their commitment, creativity, and enthusiasm in designing the workshop agenda and facilitating the workshop discussions; to our workshop staff team, for their skill and hard work in facilitating the committee’s work and executing its vision; to all of the workshop speakers and participants, for their individual expert contributions to inform and enrich a lively discussion over 2 days; to our independent reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions, which helped ensure that this proceedings meets the National Academies’ standards for their published reports; to our report review staff and coordinator, for shepherding this proceedings through its review processes; and to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, for its sponsorship of the workshop and for the opportunity to serve our nation’s needs.

This page intentionally left blank.

Contents

WORKSHOP OVERVIEW

1 INTRODUCTION

Motivation for the Workshop

Keynote Address from the Department of Defense

Key Perspectives from the Climate Security Roundtable

Organization of the Workshop and Proceedings

2 CLIMATE AND SECURITY CHALLENGES IN CENTRAL AMERICA

Structural Vulnerabilities of the Central America Region

Examples of Key Climate Risks

Examples of Key Security Risks

Panel Discussion

3 CLIMATE SECURITY INDICATORS

Likely Impacts of Climate Change on (Im)mobility

Natural Resource Governance to Strengthen Resilience in the Northern Triangle

Food Security in Central America

Indicators Panel Discussion

Indicators Work Groups

4 CLIMATE SECURITY PATHWAYS

Plausible Climate Security Futures in Central America

Central America Scenarios: Climate Change, Governance, and Human Mobility

Pathways for Climate and Security in Central America

Disruptive Seeds to Envision Bright Futures for Climate Security

Pathways Panel Discussions

Pathways Work Groups

5 CLIMATE SECURITY DATA AND TOOLS

Innovations and Tools for Climate Security

Socioeconomic and Demographic Data: National and Regional Sources

Characterizing Impacts From Future Extreme Sea Level

Data and Tools Panel Discussions

Data and Tools Work Groups

6 PLENARY SYNTHESIS DISCUSSIONS

Indicators

Pathways

Data and Tools

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

A NATIONAL ACADEMIES CLIMATE SECURITY ROUNDTABLE

B CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SECURITY ANALYSIS

C WORKSHOP AGENDA

D WORKSHOP PLANNING COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES

E WORKSHOP SPEAKERS BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES

BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES

BOXES

1-1 Workshop Statement of Task

2-1 Underlying Human Geography and Structural Vulnerabilities

2-2 Examples of Key Climate Risks Identified for Central America

2-3 Security Dynamics in the Central America Region

4-1 Plausible Climate Security Futures

A-1 Climate Security Roundtable Statement of Task

FIGURES

1-1 Map of Central America region

1-2 Systems conceptual framework for climate security analysis

1-3 Conceptualizing complex risk

3-1 (Im)mobility categories suggested by the aspirations–capabilities framework

3-2 Community forest concessions in the Mayan biosphere

3-3 Climate change and drought in Central America

4-1 Synthesis of observed and projected impacts

4-2 Land use and adaption: Stark and visual impact of Hurricane Eta on coffee farms

4-3 International Futures: Macro (left) and micro (right) views

4-4 Conceptual model for the Climate Security Roundtable: Drought pathways

5-1 Climate Security Observatory tool

5-2 Extreme sea level projections

B-1 Conceptual frameworks drafted by the Climate Security Roundtable for understanding climate-related security risks

TABLES

3-1 Sample Indicators From Work Group A for Food Security

5-1 Examples of Regional Socioeconomic and Demographic Datasets

B-1 Analytic Challenges of Climate Change and Corresponding Attributes of a Conceptual Framework

Acronyms

This page intentionally left blank.